Gore 2008?
April 17, 2007 3:19 PM Subscribe
I'm interested in a potential Gore entry into the Democratic Primary. Are any pundits predicting this? Are there any comparable historical entries?
James Carville is convinced that Gore will run, on the "once you've done it, it's in your blood" theory.
posted by sockpoppet at 3:46 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by sockpoppet at 3:46 PM on April 17, 2007
Richard Nixon's story actually comes pretty close in a lot of ways to Gore's basic situation. He was a two-term VP in Eisenhower's administration, then ran for President in 1960, losing to Kennedy. Eight years later, promising a solution to an unpopular war, he came back to win it.
posted by Partial Law at 3:49 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by Partial Law at 3:49 PM on April 17, 2007
Intrade is listing contracts for Gore to win the Democratic Primary. Currently trading at $9.1, which corresponds to about a 9% chance of it happening.
posted by 0xFCAF at 3:49 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by 0xFCAF at 3:49 PM on April 17, 2007
I've been waiting for this myself (actually to the point of watching Intrade hoping for a spike). As I think is mentioned in the Rolling Stone article, he's indicated several times he won't enter (though sometimes they take the "no plans to" non-denial denial formulation). His closest friends really doubt he'd run, apparently.
The New Yorker did a good article on the subject, too: You Know Me, Al.
posted by rafter at 4:46 PM on April 17, 2007
The New Yorker did a good article on the subject, too: You Know Me, Al.
posted by rafter at 4:46 PM on April 17, 2007
In another Nixon/Gore parallel, the 1960 election was very close: "Kennedy beat Nixon by two tenths of a percentage point (0.2%) in the popular vote." Republicans felt there was voted fraud in some states, especially Illinois, and there were recounts in several states.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:00 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by kirkaracha at 5:00 PM on April 17, 2007
Gore getting in was a lot more likely before Obama chose to get in the race, and Edwards chose to make such a clear move to the left.
Obama is absorbing a lot of the "anyone but Hillary" sentiment and most of the progressive fervor which would have been the heart of a "draft Gore" movement, and Edwards is positioning himself to step in were Obama to stumble. The only real void in the race is for an "anyone but Hillary" candidate running to the center. That spot's probably going to remain empty, even though it's actually the winningnest spot for November.
There's never been a serious late entrant in the primary era (1972 and onward). However, the front-loading of the schedule raises the real possibility, for the first time in a long-time, of a convention not decided on the first ballot. Lots of things which haven't happened in a long time are theoretically possible.
posted by MattD at 5:27 PM on April 17, 2007
Obama is absorbing a lot of the "anyone but Hillary" sentiment and most of the progressive fervor which would have been the heart of a "draft Gore" movement, and Edwards is positioning himself to step in were Obama to stumble. The only real void in the race is for an "anyone but Hillary" candidate running to the center. That spot's probably going to remain empty, even though it's actually the winningnest spot for November.
There's never been a serious late entrant in the primary era (1972 and onward). However, the front-loading of the schedule raises the real possibility, for the first time in a long-time, of a convention not decided on the first ballot. Lots of things which haven't happened in a long time are theoretically possible.
posted by MattD at 5:27 PM on April 17, 2007
It was reported that the right-wing-noise-machine's response to his film winning the Oscar - the attack on how much energy his house uses - only pushed him further away from re-entering the political arena.
posted by thewittyname at 7:04 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by thewittyname at 7:04 PM on April 17, 2007
My real concern is that at this point its almost impossible for him to run. The media circus that is hillary vs obama is fueled by very real donation monies that are being wasted. If Gore tries to run most of that early money will be gone and whatever would have been earmarked for him probably was shoveled to the Hillary campaign thanks to her husband's connections, which Gore would have utilized. Also, because he is so close to the Clintons, it doesnt seem he would even run against Hillary.
posted by damn dirty ape at 7:41 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by damn dirty ape at 7:41 PM on April 17, 2007
There was a time when losing candidates could reasonably expect to get a second chance. Thomas Dewey was nominated by the Republicans in 1944 and 1948. Adlai Stevenson was nominated by the Democrats in 1956 and 1960. Nixon was nominated by the Republicans in 1960, and again in 1968 (and 1972).
But there's never been a repeat since then. No candidate for either party who got the party's nomination and lost the general election has ever been nominated again, though there have been several who would have liked to have been.
Gore got the Democratic nomination in 2000 and lost the general election. The chance of the Democrats picking him again as their candidate in 2008, or in any other year, is negligible -- and I think he knows it, and I seriously doubt he'll even try. John Kerry refuses to accept that he's blown his chance and is once again making noises about maybe running -- but there's no chance of him getting the nomination again, either.
posted by Steven C. Den Beste at 9:01 PM on April 17, 2007
But there's never been a repeat since then. No candidate for either party who got the party's nomination and lost the general election has ever been nominated again, though there have been several who would have liked to have been.
Gore got the Democratic nomination in 2000 and lost the general election. The chance of the Democrats picking him again as their candidate in 2008, or in any other year, is negligible -- and I think he knows it, and I seriously doubt he'll even try. John Kerry refuses to accept that he's blown his chance and is once again making noises about maybe running -- but there's no chance of him getting the nomination again, either.
posted by Steven C. Den Beste at 9:01 PM on April 17, 2007
Sorry... Stevenson was nominated in 1952 and 1956.
posted by Steven C. Den Beste at 9:01 PM on April 17, 2007
posted by Steven C. Den Beste at 9:01 PM on April 17, 2007
It's not likely he'll run, but if neither Obama nor Clinton break away decisively, and he comes away with the Nobel and the positive press that would come with that, then the odds are that he still won't run, but it becomes fractionally more likely.
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 7:00 AM on April 18, 2007
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 7:00 AM on April 18, 2007
If shares are trading at $9.1 now, you'd better be shortin'.
posted by Mr. Gunn at 7:21 AM on April 18, 2007
posted by Mr. Gunn at 7:21 AM on April 18, 2007
Since there isn't a Democratic front-runner, Gore might be tempted.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:22 AM on April 18, 2007
posted by kirkaracha at 10:22 AM on April 18, 2007
From the Grain of Salt Dept...
(And I think SDB is wrong about his chances. He won [okay, okay, won the popular vote] in 2000, is polling even more likable now, and can fall back again and again on the "What if?" scenario after Bush's disastrous presidency. It's a bit of a longshot, but I'm hoping for Gore/Obama myself.)
posted by rafter at 10:18 AM on April 22, 2007 [1 favorite]
(And I think SDB is wrong about his chances. He won [okay, okay, won the popular vote] in 2000, is polling even more likable now, and can fall back again and again on the "What if?" scenario after Bush's disastrous presidency. It's a bit of a longshot, but I'm hoping for Gore/Obama myself.)
posted by rafter at 10:18 AM on April 22, 2007 [1 favorite]
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by JamesToast at 3:40 PM on April 17, 2007