Do two wins make you the nominee?

January 7, 2008 10:22 AM

How many US presidential candidates, democrat or republican, have lost the first two primary/caucus contests and come back to become their party's nominee?

The only one I can name off the top of my head is Bill Clinton, who lost both New Hampshire and Iowa but came back obviously to win his party's nomination in 1992.

posted by cjoh to law & government (4 comments total)

I'd say historical data is of little use here, as this is first time around forSuper-Duper Tuesday, where there will probably be a nominee by the first week of february.
posted by Oktober at 10:32 AM on January 7, 2008

New Hampshire primary: Winners + runners-up
Iowa Caucuses: Winners + runners-up

It looks like Bill Clinton is the only candidate in modern times to do this.
posted by 0xFCAF at 10:40 AM on January 7, 2008

Based on the title of this post, it sounds like a better phrasing would be "How many candidates have won the first two contests, and then lost the nomination?" Glancing through the results, the answer appears to be "none." If Iowa and NH split, lots of things can happen, but their unified pick has never been overturned. I don't see any reason to expect that to change this year, either.
posted by gsteff at 10:54 AM on January 7, 2008

It looks like Bill Clinton is the only candidate in modern times to do this.

Yeahbut, you should remember that the current system of primaries is itself recent. While the (modern) New Hampshire primaries started in the 1950s, the system where it really is primaries that decide the nomination wasn't really in place until 1972.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:23 AM on January 7, 2008