Risk Analysis: Hotel Sharing with Unvaccinated Person
April 22, 2021 5:48 AM Subscribe
I am attending an out-of-town family event at the end of May. My parents and siblings will be there, and my siblings and I were planning on sharing one hotel room. Now I find out one sibling may not get vaccinated. I (fully vaccinated person) am not comfortable sharing a room with an unvaccinated person. Does this boundary make sense?
Pertinent details: I am traveling by plane to attend and staying two nights in said hotel. The event will have outdoor and indoor portions; I am assuming there will not be much mask wearing. Am I correct in highlighting the sharing of a hotel room as a greater risk factor than other portions?
Pertinent details: I am traveling by plane to attend and staying two nights in said hotel. The event will have outdoor and indoor portions; I am assuming there will not be much mask wearing. Am I correct in highlighting the sharing of a hotel room as a greater risk factor than other portions?
It makes sense to me.
The flight is brief and you can remain masked; in a shared room, you will be sleeping for hours each night, without a mask.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:06 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
The flight is brief and you can remain masked; in a shared room, you will be sleeping for hours each night, without a mask.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:06 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
Absolutely. Being vaccinated doesn't 100% mean you can't catch and retransmit the virus, and a hotel room will be stale recycled air. It's a good idea not to share a room with them, for your sibling's safety, and everyone else's.
posted by mrgoat at 6:07 AM on April 22, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by mrgoat at 6:07 AM on April 22, 2021 [6 favorites]
By the CDC guidelines, no, your boundary doesn't make sense . You visiting with an unvaccinated person indoors, unmasked, is fine; it's the being indoors with *multiple groups of unvaccinated households* for a medium-large sized gathering (I assume? It's unclear from what you wrote here, but seems like so, if it's a family event with indoor portions, and at least one person isn't going to be vaccinated) is much more risky.
But, you can set your own boundaries! If you're uncomfortable with it, you're uncomfortable with it, and that's fine.
posted by damayanti at 6:18 AM on April 22, 2021 [24 favorites]
But, you can set your own boundaries! If you're uncomfortable with it, you're uncomfortable with it, and that's fine.
posted by damayanti at 6:18 AM on April 22, 2021 [24 favorites]
Completely apart from the likelihood of transmission, I think you're right to be uncomfortable for social reasons. I support soft peer pressure in favor of virus responsibility. It's why I wear a mask even when I see people who may already be vaccinated outside. I don't believe that, say, my kids' daycare teacher is going to transmit the virus when she walks my kids out to my car, but I do believe in sending the message that responsible people wear masks. Likewise, I'm not getting vaccinated because I'm worried about getting the virus. I generally don't get flu shots, and that works out fine for me. I'm getting vaccinated because it's the responsible thing to do as a citizen. It's completely fair to pressure your sibling to be responsible.
posted by kevinbelt at 6:24 AM on April 22, 2021 [18 favorites]
posted by kevinbelt at 6:24 AM on April 22, 2021 [18 favorites]
No need to justify not wanting to share a room: I myself don't sleep well if there's another person in the room (and feel free to use that as a justification)! "I'd prefer my own space at night."
posted by Sheydem-tants at 6:28 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by Sheydem-tants at 6:28 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
visiting with an unvaccinated person indoors, unmasked, is fine
Those CDC guidelines are pretty vague: what does visiting mean? How many hours are they assuming for their calculations? Is every "indoor" environment the same?
I might spend half an hour with them in a closed room. I wouldn't spend the night in a closed room. Especially one where I might not have control over air flow. Personally I'd also wear a mask in the indoor portions of the event if multiple unvaccinated people will be there or if there isn't good air flow.
You know the idea of a risk budget, right? Taking a risk by flying doesn't mean you're somehow obligated to take on all other risks; the point is to minimize total exposure to the extent possible. (Also, it's not 100% clear you wouldn't be able to transmit the virus if infected during travel, so your unvaccinated sibling would carry some extra risk around you too.) Your boundary seems obvious to me, regardless of how the risk stacks up against the other parts of the trip.
posted by trig at 6:30 AM on April 22, 2021 [19 favorites]
Those CDC guidelines are pretty vague: what does visiting mean? How many hours are they assuming for their calculations? Is every "indoor" environment the same?
I might spend half an hour with them in a closed room. I wouldn't spend the night in a closed room. Especially one where I might not have control over air flow. Personally I'd also wear a mask in the indoor portions of the event if multiple unvaccinated people will be there or if there isn't good air flow.
You know the idea of a risk budget, right? Taking a risk by flying doesn't mean you're somehow obligated to take on all other risks; the point is to minimize total exposure to the extent possible. (Also, it's not 100% clear you wouldn't be able to transmit the virus if infected during travel, so your unvaccinated sibling would carry some extra risk around you too.) Your boundary seems obvious to me, regardless of how the risk stacks up against the other parts of the trip.
posted by trig at 6:30 AM on April 22, 2021 [19 favorites]
You are right to be uncomfortable with this.
You don't know how well ventilated the hotel room will be. Sleeping in a room with someone means you will be sharing air with them for at least 8 hours. Without excellent ventilation, you will inhale a lot of air that they have exhaled.
The CDC guidelines say it is okay to visit in a home with someone who is unvaccinated. Spending the night in a room goes well beyond "visit in a home". It's more time, potentially much worse ventilation.
You shouldn't feel guilty about refusing to share this room. Your sibling is pushing risk on to you because. That's not fair. It's okay to push back.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 6:40 AM on April 22, 2021 [17 favorites]
You don't know how well ventilated the hotel room will be. Sleeping in a room with someone means you will be sharing air with them for at least 8 hours. Without excellent ventilation, you will inhale a lot of air that they have exhaled.
The CDC guidelines say it is okay to visit in a home with someone who is unvaccinated. Spending the night in a room goes well beyond "visit in a home". It's more time, potentially much worse ventilation.
You shouldn't feel guilty about refusing to share this room. Your sibling is pushing risk on to you because. That's not fair. It's okay to push back.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 6:40 AM on April 22, 2021 [17 favorites]
This would be a hard pass for me as well.
People are dying and variants are spreading and anyone who is traveling and staying in a public place is putting many people (like the entire hotel staff! Remember how someone has to clean the toilet/literally everything you touch in your hotel room?) at risk.
Please consider not contributing to this shitshow by just staying home.
Also, according to the CDC page on safer travel, they consider "Hotels or multi-unit guest lodgings with common areas (e.g., bed and breakfasts)" to be Less Safe. So there's that as well.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 6:54 AM on April 22, 2021 [9 favorites]
People are dying and variants are spreading and anyone who is traveling and staying in a public place is putting many people (like the entire hotel staff! Remember how someone has to clean the toilet/literally everything you touch in your hotel room?) at risk.
Please consider not contributing to this shitshow by just staying home.
Also, according to the CDC page on safer travel, they consider "Hotels or multi-unit guest lodgings with common areas (e.g., bed and breakfasts)" to be Less Safe. So there's that as well.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 6:54 AM on April 22, 2021 [9 favorites]
Yes it makes sense.
I recognize that it's not really part of your question, so file accordingly. But! I would also recommend you not get drawn into any debate, negotiation, or justifying the boundaries you set for your own risk management. "I won't be sharing a hotel room with an unvaccinated person." Period, end of. A side of "you can make your own decisions based on your own risk assessment. I'm making mine," from other family members doing a likely but-we're-okay-with-it-so dance, but again, err on the side of simply not engaging.
I'd weigh in how likely they are to want to have fights and bargainings and negotiations over the whole thing as to whether to adjust terms of visit--getting your own room, etc--or just scrapping the trip and doing something else, but that's even further afield. Good luck with everything!
posted by Drastic at 7:10 AM on April 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
I recognize that it's not really part of your question, so file accordingly. But! I would also recommend you not get drawn into any debate, negotiation, or justifying the boundaries you set for your own risk management. "I won't be sharing a hotel room with an unvaccinated person." Period, end of. A side of "you can make your own decisions based on your own risk assessment. I'm making mine," from other family members doing a likely but-we're-okay-with-it-so dance, but again, err on the side of simply not engaging.
I'd weigh in how likely they are to want to have fights and bargainings and negotiations over the whole thing as to whether to adjust terms of visit--getting your own room, etc--or just scrapping the trip and doing something else, but that's even further afield. Good luck with everything!
posted by Drastic at 7:10 AM on April 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
In general, vaccinated or not, I'm not at a point where I want to do things indoors with a bunch of randos -- and that includes hotels. We're going to stay in a hotel in May or June and I'm like -- cagey about that but it's kinda necessary so, I'm going to live with it. But I certainly would not spend the night with someone who was unvaccinated at this point. We're planning a get-together of vaccinated friends in a few weeks and one of them has a spouse who is on the "I don't know, there hasn't been enough research" train and even SHE is aware that he will be excluded because he's being a dingus about vaccination.
posted by Medieval Maven at 7:17 AM on April 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by Medieval Maven at 7:17 AM on April 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
I would not do this. Variants are spreading and spending hours unmasked in a room with an unvaccinated person who’s been traveling would not be an acceptable risk to me.
posted by HotToddy at 7:24 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by HotToddy at 7:24 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
It makes perfect sense as a minimum boundary. In your shoes, I would reconsider going at all, or participating in any indoor events with unvaccinated people if you do go, but I certainly would get my own hotel room.
posted by Stacey at 7:39 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by Stacey at 7:39 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
OP should be perfectly safe sharing a room with the sibling. The sibling is the one who is at risk, if they are coming in close contact with other unvaccinated individuals from other households.
posted by vitout at 7:48 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by vitout at 7:48 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
If you want to eliminate all risk of the situation, do not go. If you think the science and research that Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are in the mid 90s% effective, either accept that small risk or do not go. I think the risk is greater for the unvaccinated person than for you.
If you are all about the science, the data is mixed. If you look at infection rates between states that have a mask mandate and ones that don't, you will find that no mandate states have lower infection rates and lower death per capita rates in many cases.
I am a numbers guy so to speak and an odds player. If I were vaccinated (I am), I personally would have no issue with this situation from my standpoint. This unvaccinated person has a choice and are making it. I wish them luck because the odds are not on their side. I chose to be vaccinated and to wear a mask indoors. My reasoning is that wearing a mask, while it may or may not be helpful, can't hurt. If everyone else wants me to, so be it.
If you boil this down, it is about money. It is about the cost of the/another hotel room. Who should bear that cost, the person not getting vaccinated or the ones who are concerned about living with the unvaccinated. You and your siblings need to work that out if you chose to get another room or force the unvaccinated sibling to get another room. I personally would vote to burden the unvaccinated sibling with the cost of another room.
posted by AugustWest at 8:03 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
If you are all about the science, the data is mixed. If you look at infection rates between states that have a mask mandate and ones that don't, you will find that no mandate states have lower infection rates and lower death per capita rates in many cases.
I am a numbers guy so to speak and an odds player. If I were vaccinated (I am), I personally would have no issue with this situation from my standpoint. This unvaccinated person has a choice and are making it. I wish them luck because the odds are not on their side. I chose to be vaccinated and to wear a mask indoors. My reasoning is that wearing a mask, while it may or may not be helpful, can't hurt. If everyone else wants me to, so be it.
If you boil this down, it is about money. It is about the cost of the/another hotel room. Who should bear that cost, the person not getting vaccinated or the ones who are concerned about living with the unvaccinated. You and your siblings need to work that out if you chose to get another room or force the unvaccinated sibling to get another room. I personally would vote to burden the unvaccinated sibling with the cost of another room.
posted by AugustWest at 8:03 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
The reason they're not vaccinated is important too. If they have a medical reason like a history of allergic reactions keeping them away from the mRNA ones but otherwise follows best practices, that's one thing. But if they're doing it because they're a refusenik and engage in other risky behavior, that alters the risk (as well as the level of respect they're showing you).
posted by Candleman at 8:06 AM on April 22, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by Candleman at 8:06 AM on April 22, 2021 [6 favorites]
OP should be perfectly safe sharing a room with the sibling. The sibling is the one who is at risk, if they are coming in close contact with other unvaccinated individuals from other households.
Sorry, this is misleading and grossly simplistic. There is no such thing as "perfectly safe" in this kind of risk reduction. Vaccines offer very good protection, but there is no "perfect." Though rare, some vaccinated individuals have still contracted the virus.
OP, you have a right to self-preservation. You also have a right to say you are looking out for the safety of those who cannot be vaccinated, for reasons beyond their control.
I get my second shot on Monday. Even after my two-week wait is up, I will not be gathering with unvaccinated people indoors, or with people who have unvaccinated people in their households, for the foreseeable future. Maybe someday when case counts are in the single-digits in my area, maybe not. At this point, it's like someone who texts at the wheel, refuses to lock up their guns, or doesn't wash their hands when they use the toilet. It's not my job to risk my safety just to make them feel better, and being related by blood or marriage is no exemption.
Those of us who are doing our best to protect ourselves and others have been pressured throughout the pandemic to accommodate those who are doing neither. We do not owe them this kind of ego validation at our own expense. It's a disingenuous double-standard, and it doesn't help anybody.
posted by armeowda at 8:25 AM on April 22, 2021 [10 favorites]
Sorry, this is misleading and grossly simplistic. There is no such thing as "perfectly safe" in this kind of risk reduction. Vaccines offer very good protection, but there is no "perfect." Though rare, some vaccinated individuals have still contracted the virus.
OP, you have a right to self-preservation. You also have a right to say you are looking out for the safety of those who cannot be vaccinated, for reasons beyond their control.
I get my second shot on Monday. Even after my two-week wait is up, I will not be gathering with unvaccinated people indoors, or with people who have unvaccinated people in their households, for the foreseeable future. Maybe someday when case counts are in the single-digits in my area, maybe not. At this point, it's like someone who texts at the wheel, refuses to lock up their guns, or doesn't wash their hands when they use the toilet. It's not my job to risk my safety just to make them feel better, and being related by blood or marriage is no exemption.
Those of us who are doing our best to protect ourselves and others have been pressured throughout the pandemic to accommodate those who are doing neither. We do not owe them this kind of ego validation at our own expense. It's a disingenuous double-standard, and it doesn't help anybody.
posted by armeowda at 8:25 AM on April 22, 2021 [10 favorites]
You are being totally reasonable. I agree with the other advice not to negotiate this. "I can't share a room with an vaccinated person" - end of discussion.
Check out this case of an unvaccinated healthcare worker infecting many vaccinated nursing home residents and coworkers. It correct that you are very unlikely to become severely infected and vanishingly unlikely to die of COVID after vaccination, but you are at risk from unvaccinaed indivuals.
I would suggest avoiding the indoor activities as well. This isn't just for your own well being, but you are sending an important public health message to others.
posted by latkes at 8:25 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
Check out this case of an unvaccinated healthcare worker infecting many vaccinated nursing home residents and coworkers. It correct that you are very unlikely to become severely infected and vanishingly unlikely to die of COVID after vaccination, but you are at risk from unvaccinaed indivuals.
I would suggest avoiding the indoor activities as well. This isn't just for your own well being, but you are sending an important public health message to others.
posted by latkes at 8:25 AM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
Haven’t seen this mentioned yet and it’s a thing people often overlook when deciding on these risks- what happens if some does test positive? If you were to get (likely mildly) sick despite being vaccinated would you be able to accommodate a 10 day isolation away from home? What about your sibling?
If your sibling is taking other proper precautions I personally would feel comfortable sharing a room. However, if I were your sibling I would not be attending an event where many people from various unknown household May or may not being wearing masks.
posted by raccoon409 at 8:52 AM on April 22, 2021
If your sibling is taking other proper precautions I personally would feel comfortable sharing a room. However, if I were your sibling I would not be attending an event where many people from various unknown household May or may not being wearing masks.
posted by raccoon409 at 8:52 AM on April 22, 2021
It would be absolutely insane to share a room with an unvaccinated person. Or frankly even attend an event like this right now. This pandemic isn't over and it's still possible to get sick. Traveling will expose you all to variants who will react in unknown ways with your vaccine. Don't go on this trip.
posted by bleep at 9:02 AM on April 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by bleep at 9:02 AM on April 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
As of right now, we are working under the impression that the only use of the vaccine is to stop the vaccinated person from getting covid, or the long-term related diseases that covid causes, with around 94% certainty. The outcomes of you interacting with a vaccinated person and a non-vaccinated person are near identical. It doesn't matter if the person who puts you in contact with the virus is vaccinated or not, basically.
However, you should not be traveling right now. There are multiple variants found in the states/canada/north america that the vaccine has not been proven to protect against. I think you're asking the wrong question here.
posted by FirstMateKate at 9:57 AM on April 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
However, you should not be traveling right now. There are multiple variants found in the states/canada/north america that the vaccine has not been proven to protect against. I think you're asking the wrong question here.
posted by FirstMateKate at 9:57 AM on April 22, 2021 [3 favorites]
I think that besides the practical safety concern here there is an emotional component to this room share. It does seem like you should be pretty safe because you are vaccinated but I can imagine feeling uncomfortable sharing a space with someone who is choosing to put themselves and those around them at a higher risk of anything. Safe or not safe, I would probably be angry and resentful on some level and that can make it harder (or easier, I guess) to make this decision.
posted by Viola Swamp at 10:17 AM on April 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by Viola Swamp at 10:17 AM on April 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
What are case rates and test positivity rates where you’re traveling to and where your sibling is traveling from? There’s a huge difference between say Wayne County (18% positivity) and LA County (1% positivity) right now.
posted by mr_roboto at 10:45 AM on April 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by mr_roboto at 10:45 AM on April 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
The other thing I'd add is personally, because I'm very low risk, I've never thought about this as about my own risk of infection, but rather how I am potentially contributing to the growth of the pandemic. Maybe it's because as a nurse I see that this disease is mostly devestating people outside of my personal social circle: I can see that high transmission-risk behaviors of some result in massive disabling or deadly disease mostly among immigrant neighbors. This is an issue where our own choice has butterfly-effect level impacts on many others.
posted by latkes at 11:28 AM on April 22, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by latkes at 11:28 AM on April 22, 2021 [8 favorites]
I would not share a room with an unvaccinated person and I would also be cautious about vaccinated people who have been in areas where they've found the South African, Brazilian P1, or Indian variants. Besides breathing shared air, infectious viral particles from poop air can also infect people and the virus is far more persistent in the intestines.
posted by quince at 2:19 PM on April 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by quince at 2:19 PM on April 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
The MicroCovid risk calculator gets linked here a lot. It's very useful. I've plugged in this scenario based on overall US risk and you having been vaccinated. Sharing a hotel room with one un-vaccinated person is a high-risk activity. Feel free to play around with the parameters to get a more specific risk projection.
posted by acridrabbit at 4:01 PM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by acridrabbit at 4:01 PM on April 22, 2021 [4 favorites]
A good friend is currently spending the week in bed struggling to breathe since catching COVID after being fully vaccinated in January. Hard pass.
posted by tristeza at 5:57 PM on April 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by tristeza at 5:57 PM on April 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
Frankly, I think Metafilter is being moralistic on the risk profile because of general disapproval of not being vaccinated. Of course you can, and should, make choices according to your boundaries, but these responses are a result of the fact that folks also want to see social consequences for those who choose not to protect themselves and others. But we don't know the whole story here, regarding why the sibling isn't vaccinated, and OP's attendance at this event is unlikely to change anyone's decisions about whether or not to get the vaccine.
In this case, the OP is deciding whether or not to attend an event based on the chances that 1) the sibling has transmissible levels of COVID at the time of the event; 2) the fully vaccinated OP nevertheless is infected with COVID based on this interaction; and 3) the infection results in some serious consequence. The chances of this are quite low, to say the least. I am not an epidemiologist, but I'm not sure it makes sense to set boundaries around this but not around airplane travel or sustained indoor, unmasked interactions with other people (who's vaccination status is unknown).
If this were an important event, I would do it. I think the risk you're incurring from traveling through airports and by plane, and attending unmasked indoor and outdoor events with a significant number of family members, is far larger than the risk you'd be incurring (as a vaccinated individual!) by sharing a hotel room with one unvaccinated person. As others have pointed out, even the conservative CDC seems to have blessed this arrangement.
posted by exutima at 9:28 PM on April 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
In this case, the OP is deciding whether or not to attend an event based on the chances that 1) the sibling has transmissible levels of COVID at the time of the event; 2) the fully vaccinated OP nevertheless is infected with COVID based on this interaction; and 3) the infection results in some serious consequence. The chances of this are quite low, to say the least. I am not an epidemiologist, but I'm not sure it makes sense to set boundaries around this but not around airplane travel or sustained indoor, unmasked interactions with other people (who's vaccination status is unknown).
If this were an important event, I would do it. I think the risk you're incurring from traveling through airports and by plane, and attending unmasked indoor and outdoor events with a significant number of family members, is far larger than the risk you'd be incurring (as a vaccinated individual!) by sharing a hotel room with one unvaccinated person. As others have pointed out, even the conservative CDC seems to have blessed this arrangement.
posted by exutima at 9:28 PM on April 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
As others have pointed out, even the conservative CDC seems to have blessed this arrangement.
Actually, I pointed out that the CDC considers this LESS SAFE, not SAFE. So, no, they don't seem to "bless the arrangement".
Also, it's super upsetting to point out the very real risks the hotel staff will be taking and then read comments in which the hotel workers are left unmentioned or dismissed as though they aren't people and shouldn't be considered in the equation. No one here should be acting like this trip is not a risky situation for the many other people the OP and sibling may encounter. And yes you will encounter other people in a hotel, not just at the airport or on the plane.
Saying that people who are cautious about the risks are being "moralistic" is not really relevant or helpful here, but thanks for your opinion. People are real (even people I don't know, fancy that!), their lives are real, they are getting sick and dying and that's the reason that I personally am cautious and don't want to get anyone sick. Maybe we should all care less so we won't appear to be on some sort of high horse. FFS.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 5:08 AM on April 23, 2021 [5 favorites]
Actually, I pointed out that the CDC considers this LESS SAFE, not SAFE. So, no, they don't seem to "bless the arrangement".
Also, it's super upsetting to point out the very real risks the hotel staff will be taking and then read comments in which the hotel workers are left unmentioned or dismissed as though they aren't people and shouldn't be considered in the equation. No one here should be acting like this trip is not a risky situation for the many other people the OP and sibling may encounter. And yes you will encounter other people in a hotel, not just at the airport or on the plane.
Saying that people who are cautious about the risks are being "moralistic" is not really relevant or helpful here, but thanks for your opinion. People are real (even people I don't know, fancy that!), their lives are real, they are getting sick and dying and that's the reason that I personally am cautious and don't want to get anyone sick. Maybe we should all care less so we won't appear to be on some sort of high horse. FFS.
posted by RobinofFrocksley at 5:08 AM on April 23, 2021 [5 favorites]
I agree with exutima; this is “less safe” but you, a vaccinated person with a very low chance of catching it and a very very low chance of spreading it are not endangering the hotel employees. Your unvaccinated families members are, but boycotting them and/or pulling your hair out probably isn’t going to influence their actions very much, as this pandemic has proven. If it feels morally wrong to enable them, fair enough, act on that— but you yourself are not the added risk in any realistic sense.
I think there’s a case to be made either way. There are many progressive, liberal, non-fearmongering doctors who would tell you there’s a very very small chance of you catching a mild case, and a very very very very very very small chance of something more serious. End of May is about one month ahead of when most places are prepared to fully open up, give or take a week. So you’re not totally free and clear, but you’re pretty close to what looks to be the turning point.
posted by stoneandstar at 4:56 PM on April 23, 2021 [3 favorites]
I think there’s a case to be made either way. There are many progressive, liberal, non-fearmongering doctors who would tell you there’s a very very small chance of you catching a mild case, and a very very very very very very small chance of something more serious. End of May is about one month ahead of when most places are prepared to fully open up, give or take a week. So you’re not totally free and clear, but you’re pretty close to what looks to be the turning point.
posted by stoneandstar at 4:56 PM on April 23, 2021 [3 favorites]
Regarding concern for hotel workers, there is now pretty abundant evidence that Covid-19 transmission is mainly driven by sharing air in an enclosed space, mostly contemporaneously (unlike measles), and not through contact with surfaces. Your staying in a hotel room after vaccination is therefore unlikely to be high risk for hotel staff, especially when their risk is compared to, for example, food-service workers or grocery check-out clerks. The CDC's description of "Less Safe" refers specifically to close contact with unvaccinated people or non-family members, i.e., spending prolonged time in the same room indoors -- not passing people in the hallway or occupying a space hours apart.
If you want to mitigate this very small risk even further, you could avoid elevators, open windows before check-out, try to leave early so that the air has a chance to settle before housekeeping arrives. And if you are really concerned about their welfare, probably the most important thing you can do as a vaccinated individual is (unfortunately) to tip very generously: there have been a ton of layoffs among cleaning staff, many have been out of work for prolonged periods, relief has not been accessible or nearly sufficient for everyone, and they are now working harder for less money.
The vaccines that are approved in the USA, especially the mRNA vaccines, are very effective against both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. Of course, if you don't even have an asymptomatic infection, you can't pass the virus on to someone else, which means the vaccines also interrupt chains of transmission. There are indeed some documented cases of Covid-19 "breakthrough" transmission, but they are rare. A recent study of nursing home transmission, a high risk environment, reported only 22 breakthrough infections among almost 15,000 people, 12 of which were asymptomatic. There was no secondary transmission identified from the breakthrough cases by contact tracing. The nursing home outbreak that was linked upthread was really a near worst-case scenario: a super-spreader event in the absolute most-vulnerable population (age and pre-existing conditions) with a strain that had the E484K mutation of concernu. Even in this relatively extreme situation, the vaccine remained highly effective, with 86.5% protection against symptomatic infection.
Variants exist, but they do not by any means render the vaccines ineffective or irrelevant. So far, mRNA vaccines appear to be extremely effective against even asymptomatic B.1.1.7, the variant that appears to be the most transmissible and that is becoming dominant in the US. The data we have also supports the mRNA vaccines and J&J retaining substantial effectiveness even against B.1.351, especially in terms of severe illness and death. This is the variant that appears to be the most serious and the most immune-evasive so far. (Astra-Zeneca's vaccine fares worse against B.1.351, but AZ is not approved here. This difference may be because, unlike the approved vaccines, they did not use a spike protein that was engineered to be "locked" into a specific shape. The mRNA vaccines so far have not yet been tested in a region where P.1 is prevalent, which is the only reason we don't have more in vivo data there; J&J has, and its performance is similar to against B.1.351.) Overall, this is very encouraging news for the vaccinated and their friends and family.
If your sibling were the one asking this question, obviously, my response would absolutely be not to travel to a social event without getting vaccinated. We know that even partial vaccination (2+ weeks past first mRNA shot, e.g.) would be a whole lot better than nothing, so if you could convince them to at least start the process in time, that would not be time wasted. (I would feel that there is maybe some gray area if they couldn't get a shot in time, either because of eligibility or availability, and if they were taking other serious precautions like quarantining, driving, limiting contact, etc. While we don't know the full story, it doesn't sound like this is what we're talking about.) If you think your sibling's resistance is "soft", you could potentially use attending as a bargaining chip, but it may not work if they think you won't really follow through, or if you suspect they'll use this to foment drama in which you are the "bad guy," either of which means you'd end up bearing all the cost with no real benefit to you or to others. Ultimately, while I think it's worth trying to influence them, you can't control what they decide to do, and their attendance is the main problem here, not yours.
Okay, so all of the above is about traveling and attending this event in general, not specifically about you sharing a room. I think you're not wrong that it's riskier than socializing in general, but would say that the risk to you in absolute terms is probably still fairly low. The main story continues to be that the vaccines really are highly effective, probably more so than we are being led to believe by the media.
On the other hand, first of all, you get to set your own boundaries around health and safety. I've set some boundaries in the past that even I myself now think may have been overly strict, but I don't regret setting them. It was great practice being assertive, and how people reacted was very informative. Second, even if the risk is low, is it even worth taking? This is especially true if there is another solution, like giving the unvaccinated person their own room (ideally they'd pay for that, since they're creating the problem, but maybe the cost could be split or other people might be willing to reconfigure sleeping arrangements to make it possible), or your staying somewhere else. Who gains what from the current arrangement, and how important are those gains? A lot of the added risk is going to come from time that you won't even be enjoying together, because you'll be asleep. Personally, unless something huge were on the line and there were really no other viable solution, I would feel like this was a low-ish but also pretty pointless risk for me to take, and would resent being guilted into it.
Ultimately, though, this is your call to make, and as your family will be gathering with or without you, whatever decision you make is unlikely to make a big difference in the overall risk profile of this event.
posted by en forme de poire at 1:12 PM on April 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
If you want to mitigate this very small risk even further, you could avoid elevators, open windows before check-out, try to leave early so that the air has a chance to settle before housekeeping arrives. And if you are really concerned about their welfare, probably the most important thing you can do as a vaccinated individual is (unfortunately) to tip very generously: there have been a ton of layoffs among cleaning staff, many have been out of work for prolonged periods, relief has not been accessible or nearly sufficient for everyone, and they are now working harder for less money.
The vaccines that are approved in the USA, especially the mRNA vaccines, are very effective against both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. Of course, if you don't even have an asymptomatic infection, you can't pass the virus on to someone else, which means the vaccines also interrupt chains of transmission. There are indeed some documented cases of Covid-19 "breakthrough" transmission, but they are rare. A recent study of nursing home transmission, a high risk environment, reported only 22 breakthrough infections among almost 15,000 people, 12 of which were asymptomatic. There was no secondary transmission identified from the breakthrough cases by contact tracing. The nursing home outbreak that was linked upthread was really a near worst-case scenario: a super-spreader event in the absolute most-vulnerable population (age and pre-existing conditions) with a strain that had the E484K mutation of concernu. Even in this relatively extreme situation, the vaccine remained highly effective, with 86.5% protection against symptomatic infection.
Variants exist, but they do not by any means render the vaccines ineffective or irrelevant. So far, mRNA vaccines appear to be extremely effective against even asymptomatic B.1.1.7, the variant that appears to be the most transmissible and that is becoming dominant in the US. The data we have also supports the mRNA vaccines and J&J retaining substantial effectiveness even against B.1.351, especially in terms of severe illness and death. This is the variant that appears to be the most serious and the most immune-evasive so far. (Astra-Zeneca's vaccine fares worse against B.1.351, but AZ is not approved here. This difference may be because, unlike the approved vaccines, they did not use a spike protein that was engineered to be "locked" into a specific shape. The mRNA vaccines so far have not yet been tested in a region where P.1 is prevalent, which is the only reason we don't have more in vivo data there; J&J has, and its performance is similar to against B.1.351.) Overall, this is very encouraging news for the vaccinated and their friends and family.
If your sibling were the one asking this question, obviously, my response would absolutely be not to travel to a social event without getting vaccinated. We know that even partial vaccination (2+ weeks past first mRNA shot, e.g.) would be a whole lot better than nothing, so if you could convince them to at least start the process in time, that would not be time wasted. (I would feel that there is maybe some gray area if they couldn't get a shot in time, either because of eligibility or availability, and if they were taking other serious precautions like quarantining, driving, limiting contact, etc. While we don't know the full story, it doesn't sound like this is what we're talking about.) If you think your sibling's resistance is "soft", you could potentially use attending as a bargaining chip, but it may not work if they think you won't really follow through, or if you suspect they'll use this to foment drama in which you are the "bad guy," either of which means you'd end up bearing all the cost with no real benefit to you or to others. Ultimately, while I think it's worth trying to influence them, you can't control what they decide to do, and their attendance is the main problem here, not yours.
Okay, so all of the above is about traveling and attending this event in general, not specifically about you sharing a room. I think you're not wrong that it's riskier than socializing in general, but would say that the risk to you in absolute terms is probably still fairly low. The main story continues to be that the vaccines really are highly effective, probably more so than we are being led to believe by the media.
On the other hand, first of all, you get to set your own boundaries around health and safety. I've set some boundaries in the past that even I myself now think may have been overly strict, but I don't regret setting them. It was great practice being assertive, and how people reacted was very informative. Second, even if the risk is low, is it even worth taking? This is especially true if there is another solution, like giving the unvaccinated person their own room (ideally they'd pay for that, since they're creating the problem, but maybe the cost could be split or other people might be willing to reconfigure sleeping arrangements to make it possible), or your staying somewhere else. Who gains what from the current arrangement, and how important are those gains? A lot of the added risk is going to come from time that you won't even be enjoying together, because you'll be asleep. Personally, unless something huge were on the line and there were really no other viable solution, I would feel like this was a low-ish but also pretty pointless risk for me to take, and would resent being guilted into it.
Ultimately, though, this is your call to make, and as your family will be gathering with or without you, whatever decision you make is unlikely to make a big difference in the overall risk profile of this event.
posted by en forme de poire at 1:12 PM on April 25, 2021 [5 favorites]
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by Jobst at 5:58 AM on April 22, 2021 [12 favorites]