How dangerous is Mexico really?
March 1, 2015 12:42 PM Subscribe
I have heard many horror stories from friends, about narcos, ransom, murder, beheading etc. I would be visiting family in Guerrero and Morelos for 2 weeks in March for spring break. What are my chances of getting kidnapped or murder? If it was 1 in a million or greater, I probably wouldn't go. FWIW I am a white skinned half Mexican 32 year old guy, and my Spanish is good but I definitely have an American accent.
My cousins routinely visit family in Durango without batting an eyelash, and they're just like you (late 30's, half, one is very fair, speak Spanish, obv American though). Family is comfortably middle class I believe.
There's a great blog written by an expat who writes frequently on this (safety/media/perceptions) called The Real Housewife of Ciudad Juarez.
posted by jrobin276 at 1:17 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
There's a great blog written by an expat who writes frequently on this (safety/media/perceptions) called The Real Housewife of Ciudad Juarez.
posted by jrobin276 at 1:17 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Number of kidnappings in Mexico in 2013: 1698
Population of Mexico in 2013: 122.3 million
So thats 13.88 kidnappings per million people. (of course that's across the entire year)
posted by dcjd at 1:17 PM on March 1, 2015
Population of Mexico in 2013: 122.3 million
So thats 13.88 kidnappings per million people. (of course that's across the entire year)
posted by dcjd at 1:17 PM on March 1, 2015
Your chances of being murdered in the United States are greater than one in a million. More like four in 100,000.
posted by decathecting at 1:19 PM on March 1, 2015 [21 favorites]
posted by decathecting at 1:19 PM on March 1, 2015 [21 favorites]
Anecdotally, my 100% white parents (my mom speaks pretty good Spanish, dad basically none) went to heavily-Zapatista, semi-rural Chiapas for a couple of weeks recently and had an amazing time. They said specifically that they felt no sense of danger at any time. They're both extraordinarily experienced travelers.
I can't say myself how this would compare to Guerrero and Morelos, especially since the Zapatistas seem to be a stabilizing force in their area.
posted by cmoj at 1:21 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I can't say myself how this would compare to Guerrero and Morelos, especially since the Zapatistas seem to be a stabilizing force in their area.
posted by cmoj at 1:21 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Response by poster: decathecting, so if I go to Mexico my odds of dying via murder go down? Mexico is safer than USA when it comes to murder? 40 per million in usa, 13 per million in mexico?
posted by crawltopslow at 1:46 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by crawltopslow at 1:46 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
The State Department has some good information about travel to Mexico. They break out the specific warnings by state. If you stick close to your family at all times, you would probably be fine, but forewarned is forearmed as they say.
FYI though, regarding the above stated kidnapping numbers, it's estimated that there are 100 times more kidnappings than ever get reported. It's kind of become a way of life that many don't bother to go to police with (and in some cases the police are involved).
posted by cecic at 1:52 PM on March 1, 2015 [5 favorites]
FYI though, regarding the above stated kidnapping numbers, it's estimated that there are 100 times more kidnappings than ever get reported. It's kind of become a way of life that many don't bother to go to police with (and in some cases the police are involved).
posted by cecic at 1:52 PM on March 1, 2015 [5 favorites]
Of course, it is dangerous.
Between January and September this year 1,150 murders were reported in Guerrero, as well as 89 kidnappings and 119 extortions, while in Michoacán, there were 761 murders, as well as 96 kidnappings and 244 extortions.
That is pretty bad and it is probably a big underestimate. But the state of Guerrero also has 3.4 Million people going about their business. That is still 388 out of a million that were murdered.
The truth is that these dangerous rural states are not safe by any means but, if you exercise caution, there's no reason you should be involved in any of these things. There are definitely civilian deaths but many of the murders are among rival gangs.
My parents have family in Michoacan and go back and forth from San Diego. They're heading down there again in May. Let me tell you their precautions: They take a private taxi (driven by an extended member of the family) all the way from the nearest airport to their hometown. You do not go driving anywhere at night. The roads are particularly dangerous then. Stay away from the southern coasts as well which are basically lawless at this point. Local trips are also taken with known family members/friends. They grew up there so they know the lay of the land.
What do your relatives say? You are going to need their help to know what areas are safe and less-safe. Given the tone of your question, if you don't have assistance from trusted locals, I don't think you should go.
People will tell you Mexico is a big place. It is true. The majority of the country is safe. If you were going to Mexico City or Oaxaca, I'd say go, have fun, and don't think about this stuff. But these states you mention are places with lots of action and very few rural vulnerable roads snaking through the landscape.
The current state department advisory to Mexico breaks it down state-by-state. The only states listed as "no non-essential travel" are:
Coahuila
Guerrero
Michoacan
Sinaloa
Tamaulipas
posted by vacapinta at 1:56 PM on March 1, 2015 [14 favorites]
Between January and September this year 1,150 murders were reported in Guerrero, as well as 89 kidnappings and 119 extortions, while in Michoacán, there were 761 murders, as well as 96 kidnappings and 244 extortions.
That is pretty bad and it is probably a big underestimate. But the state of Guerrero also has 3.4 Million people going about their business. That is still 388 out of a million that were murdered.
The truth is that these dangerous rural states are not safe by any means but, if you exercise caution, there's no reason you should be involved in any of these things. There are definitely civilian deaths but many of the murders are among rival gangs.
My parents have family in Michoacan and go back and forth from San Diego. They're heading down there again in May. Let me tell you their precautions: They take a private taxi (driven by an extended member of the family) all the way from the nearest airport to their hometown. You do not go driving anywhere at night. The roads are particularly dangerous then. Stay away from the southern coasts as well which are basically lawless at this point. Local trips are also taken with known family members/friends. They grew up there so they know the lay of the land.
What do your relatives say? You are going to need their help to know what areas are safe and less-safe. Given the tone of your question, if you don't have assistance from trusted locals, I don't think you should go.
People will tell you Mexico is a big place. It is true. The majority of the country is safe. If you were going to Mexico City or Oaxaca, I'd say go, have fun, and don't think about this stuff. But these states you mention are places with lots of action and very few rural vulnerable roads snaking through the landscape.
The current state department advisory to Mexico breaks it down state-by-state. The only states listed as "no non-essential travel" are:
Coahuila
Guerrero
Michoacan
Sinaloa
Tamaulipas
posted by vacapinta at 1:56 PM on March 1, 2015 [14 favorites]
I visited Ixtapa, in Guererro, last May and felt totally safe, but I was at a resort. I visited Cuernavaca for a conference in 2012, and again, felt utterly safe---but mostly I was at the university. I took my kids to Querétaro a year ago and was assured by some of my colleagues that it was very safe. (We took the high-class bus from the Mexico City airport into Querétaro.) I have heard that most of the problems are near the border with the US (except for the craziness with the students at the teaching college who were presumably killed by the mayor of the small town, but that didn't feel like dangerous for tourists). I have a lot of Mexican mathematical colleagues, and I'm planning on spending next spring on sabbatical in Querétaro with my family.
But it's not clear what these anecdotes get you. The other side of it is apparently my university no longer does student exchanges/study abroad stuff with Mexico because they're worried it's dangerous.
I mean, clearly, I would go and not think twice about it, especially since you actually can speak spanish and have relatives to visit, who presumably will keep you out of trouble.
posted by leahwrenn at 2:02 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
But it's not clear what these anecdotes get you. The other side of it is apparently my university no longer does student exchanges/study abroad stuff with Mexico because they're worried it's dangerous.
I mean, clearly, I would go and not think twice about it, especially since you actually can speak spanish and have relatives to visit, who presumably will keep you out of trouble.
posted by leahwrenn at 2:02 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
We went to Hidalgo, which is fairly off the beaten path to go rock climbing the past December. Other than the limestone cliffs, the town is known mostly for the cement factory that probably employs the majority of its residents.
A few years ago an entire mariachi band (17 people) was murdered and a few weeks after we left two separate accidents resulted in the deaths of two climbers.
But I mean, I'd go again.
The scariest thing was dodging traffic, both when walking and taking the taxi while terribly late to our flight. That new Mad Maxx movie has a lot to live up for. The locals were very kind with picking us up when we hitch hiked, which we tried to do, as much as possible.
But I sincerely wasn't afraid of someone killing me. The locals were kind enough and I know no Spanish what-so-ever.
Anyways, real talk: ask yourself what you're really afraid of - perhaps you're using scary scary Mexico as an excuse (IMHO).
posted by alex_skazat at 3:41 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
A few years ago an entire mariachi band (17 people) was murdered and a few weeks after we left two separate accidents resulted in the deaths of two climbers.
But I mean, I'd go again.
The scariest thing was dodging traffic, both when walking and taking the taxi while terribly late to our flight. That new Mad Maxx movie has a lot to live up for. The locals were very kind with picking us up when we hitch hiked, which we tried to do, as much as possible.
But I sincerely wasn't afraid of someone killing me. The locals were kind enough and I know no Spanish what-so-ever.
Anyways, real talk: ask yourself what you're really afraid of - perhaps you're using scary scary Mexico as an excuse (IMHO).
posted by alex_skazat at 3:41 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I went to Mexico several years ago. My dad and I have a thing where I tell him my travel plans after I return safely but before traveling, I said, what do you know about Mexico City? He said, I heard there are a lot of kidnappings. I thought, my dad is so crazy. I went and met my classmates and the professor at the local university who will be with us for the week. We asked him about safety. He told us that his ex-wife had recently been kidnapped. She escaped and was okay but he was trying to figure out how to get a job in the US and bring the ex-wife and their son. And they thought the police were behind the kidnapping.
That was an eye-opener. Then again, I didn't feel unsafe and my Spanish is minimal. But none of us went anywhere alone. In contrast, I went to Egypt before the recent revolution and there were times where I felt uncomfortable.
I think the odds that you would be fine are higher than not. I don't know how much risk you feel comfortable undertaking but it sounds like not a lot, which is completely understandable. Your time is valuable, your safety is important, and you deserve to feel safe. People who would say otherwise are people you should avoid.
posted by kat518 at 4:08 PM on March 1, 2015
That was an eye-opener. Then again, I didn't feel unsafe and my Spanish is minimal. But none of us went anywhere alone. In contrast, I went to Egypt before the recent revolution and there were times where I felt uncomfortable.
I think the odds that you would be fine are higher than not. I don't know how much risk you feel comfortable undertaking but it sounds like not a lot, which is completely understandable. Your time is valuable, your safety is important, and you deserve to feel safe. People who would say otherwise are people you should avoid.
posted by kat518 at 4:08 PM on March 1, 2015
This is kind of anecdotal, but I teach community college in Laredo, Texas. Every semester I have students do a speech about the scariest thing that has ever happened to them, and so far the minimum number of students who told a story about them or a close family member getting kidnapped across the border in Nuevo Laredo is two in one semester. Often they were abducted by corrupt cops working for a cartel or by people dressed as cops--it's hard to tell the difference. I wouldn't begin to trust the numbers on Mexican kidnappings because absolutely none of the stories told to me were resolved by going to the police. Most of them ended with a rich family member paying the ransom or someone taking out a second mortgage on a house to do it.
Nuevo Laredo is the most dangerous part of Mexico right now, so nothing else will be as bad, but if the State Department says don't go to Guerrero, there is no way in hell you would catch me there.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 5:58 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Nuevo Laredo is the most dangerous part of Mexico right now, so nothing else will be as bad, but if the State Department says don't go to Guerrero, there is no way in hell you would catch me there.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 5:58 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
a comparison with the US is not really meaningful since the kind of murders and kidnappings that happen in the US are totally different from the ones happening in Mexico.
extortion kidnapping basically doesn't happen in the US, and murders here are hardly ever "random" in the sense that news reports depict Mexican drug violence to often be.
posted by jayder at 6:26 PM on March 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
extortion kidnapping basically doesn't happen in the US, and murders here are hardly ever "random" in the sense that news reports depict Mexican drug violence to often be.
posted by jayder at 6:26 PM on March 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
We have family in Michoacan, and when we were living down there a couple years ago we took every precaution they did - didn't go out at night, stayed low key and aware. I would recommend not going alone or at least having people there that are genuinely keeping an eye on you. People are living and thriving there too, however. I did not feel unsafe (even with 2 children), and we had an amazing few months. A major narco was just captured in Morelia, and the states surrounding Michoacan are probably more dangerous for a bit because of this, the current state report probably reflects this. Your Spanish will help you a lot,the accent may make people curious, but they won't necessarily target you. We made friends with good people and plan to go back for another extended stay next winter. The horror stories are all anyone (and the media) is focusing on.. We've been lucky to look and live beyond that.
posted by lawliet at 6:41 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by lawliet at 6:41 PM on March 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
If it was 1 in a million or greater, I probably wouldn't go.
You sound way, way overly risk-averse. The chances are miniscule!
I have heard many horror stories from friends
But have your Mexican family members who live there and know how it is there been telling you these horror stories? No. Of course not! Being half Mexican and speaking good Spanish and having family members abroad who want to welcome you into their home is such a beautiful thing! And you have 2 weeks available and the financial means to go? Go! It would be a real shame for you to miss visiting with your family in Guerrero and Morelos for 2 weeks because some wacky American-style fear mongering got the best of you.
I last went to Mexico (QR) 2 years ago with a group of friends and it was awesome. There was one dude in our friend group who was invited but flat out refused to go because he was afraid of being beheaded. I can assure you every member of our group returned to the US right on schedule and with our heads intact. We still give this friend crap about it, and he regrets not going when he had both the means and the time (he no longer has the time). So I say to you: Go. Go. Go. Don't overthink this.
posted by hush at 7:59 AM on March 2, 2015
You sound way, way overly risk-averse. The chances are miniscule!
I have heard many horror stories from friends
But have your Mexican family members who live there and know how it is there been telling you these horror stories? No. Of course not! Being half Mexican and speaking good Spanish and having family members abroad who want to welcome you into their home is such a beautiful thing! And you have 2 weeks available and the financial means to go? Go! It would be a real shame for you to miss visiting with your family in Guerrero and Morelos for 2 weeks because some wacky American-style fear mongering got the best of you.
I last went to Mexico (QR) 2 years ago with a group of friends and it was awesome. There was one dude in our friend group who was invited but flat out refused to go because he was afraid of being beheaded. I can assure you every member of our group returned to the US right on schedule and with our heads intact. We still give this friend crap about it, and he regrets not going when he had both the means and the time (he no longer has the time). So I say to you: Go. Go. Go. Don't overthink this.
posted by hush at 7:59 AM on March 2, 2015
If it was 1 in a million or greater, I probably wouldn't go.
Assuming you're from the US, your chance of getting kidnapped or murdered here is already greater than one in a million.
That said, how "safe" Mexico is varies tremendously from place to place, just like in the US. Think Detroit ghettos vs. small rural towns.
You need to research your specific locale. Also, if/when you go, stay close to your family members who live there and let their local knowledge and instincts about where is or isn't safe help guide you.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:54 AM on March 3, 2015
Assuming you're from the US, your chance of getting kidnapped or murdered here is already greater than one in a million.
That said, how "safe" Mexico is varies tremendously from place to place, just like in the US. Think Detroit ghettos vs. small rural towns.
You need to research your specific locale. Also, if/when you go, stay close to your family members who live there and let their local knowledge and instincts about where is or isn't safe help guide you.
posted by Jacqueline at 6:54 AM on March 3, 2015
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 1:00 PM on March 1, 2015