For example, when I was young I thought of many stock market investment schemes that seemed to guarantee me a profit. I attempted to prove these profits mathematically. Then I took a class on economic asset pricing and learned the principle of "no free lunch": if some investment is guaranteed to beat the markets, then someone else will already have tried it, and will have skimmed any profits to be made. This principle is remarkable because it allows you to abstract away so much complex mathematics into one simple question.I don't think that's necessarily true at all. For one thing, When you have a large amount of money, attempting to buy a stock causes it's price to go up immediately. You can't participate in the market without moving the market. With small amounts of money, any strategy would get eaten by broker's fees. So there are practical considerations at the high and low end.
It is impossible for someone to lie unless he thinks he knows theThe rule of thumb, then, is to put to one side the veracity of a statement, and start by considering whether the source would be interested in asserting it regardless.
truth. Producing bullshit requires no such conviction. A person who
lies is thereby responding to the truth, and he is to that extent
respectful of it. When an honest man speaks, he says only what he
believes to be true; and for the liar, it is correspondingly
indispensable that he considers his statements to be false. For the
bullshitter, however, all these bets are off: he is neither on the
side of the true nor on the side of the false. His eye is not on the
facts at all, as the eyes of the honest man and of the liar are,
except insofar as they may be pertinent to his interest in getting
away with what he says. He does not care whether the things he says
describe reality correctly. He just picks them out, or makes them up,
to suit his purpose.
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posted by ladypants at 5:06 PM on May 17 [2 favorites has favorites]