covid risks around thanksgiving?
November 5, 2023 6:42 PM Subscribe
I'm generally young and healthy but extremely wary of getting long Covid. I'm thinking of traveling for an in-person Thanksgiving this year. What are the risks of getting long Covid around now; are the smart people traveling, eating indoors, having large gatherings, etc.?
Traveling to PA, if it's relevant. Interested in stats relevant to healthy women in their 20s-30s (I am not immunocomprised). I will be getting my Covid booster and flu shot 2 weeks before traveling.
Most of the people I'm meeting with will be boosted but perhaps not particularly Covid-cautious themselves. I wear N95 masks when traveling; I'm mostly thinking about the risks of a medium-large indoor gathering, plus general indoor in-person time.
Having trouble finding enough Covid data to make judgments here. I'm OK with a long Covid risk that resembles that of (say) a car accident.
Traveling to PA, if it's relevant. Interested in stats relevant to healthy women in their 20s-30s (I am not immunocomprised). I will be getting my Covid booster and flu shot 2 weeks before traveling.
Most of the people I'm meeting with will be boosted but perhaps not particularly Covid-cautious themselves. I wear N95 masks when traveling; I'm mostly thinking about the risks of a medium-large indoor gathering, plus general indoor in-person time.
Having trouble finding enough Covid data to make judgments here. I'm OK with a long Covid risk that resembles that of (say) a car accident.
If you are on Twitter, a mathematician made a tool to calculate the probability that at least one person in the space you're in has covid (sorry, I don't know how to link just the image).
Here are the recent hospitalization rates for PA, for numbers to feed into the calculator above:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_weeklyhospitaladmissions100k_42
I don't think there is any way to calculate your long covid risk as it's not related to age or health status; if you get covid, it could lead to long covid.
Finally, the currently available home tests are not very sensitive until day 3-5 of symptoms; a negative RAT doesn't indicate no covid.
posted by lulu68 at 9:41 PM on November 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Here are the recent hospitalization rates for PA, for numbers to feed into the calculator above:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklyhospitaladmissions_weeklyhospitaladmissions100k_42
I don't think there is any way to calculate your long covid risk as it's not related to age or health status; if you get covid, it could lead to long covid.
Finally, the currently available home tests are not very sensitive until day 3-5 of symptoms; a negative RAT doesn't indicate no covid.
posted by lulu68 at 9:41 PM on November 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Around 10% of people who catch COVID will develop Long-COVID.
The percentage is greater for women; and for people who are dehydrated during the acute stage of COVID.
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 2:06 AM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
The percentage is greater for women; and for people who are dehydrated during the acute stage of COVID.
posted by chariot pulled by cassowaries at 2:06 AM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
If you go: ways we as individuals can lower COVID risk include staying up-to-date on vaccines, masking, testing, and in the case of personal spaces that we control, ventilation. You’ve got the vaccine booster covered. You can mask while traveling, with a well-fitting n95. Although having everyone test beforehand is not fail proof, it does help lower risk (especially if people all test the morning of, and two days/48 hours before that). But ventilation could potentially make a significant difference if that is under your control, such as for a gathering in a private home. Look into current recommendations. The current strains are so highly transmissible that crowded outdoor conditions are similar transmission risk as indoor spaces without well-planned intentional ventilation, from what I’ve read, but attention to air flow dynamics with open windows and fans and/or filtration will likely help lower your transmission risk as well. Don’t just rely on one strategy alone - remember the Swiss cheese model of risk reduction, that layering imperfect measures provides better risk reduction overall.
And then avoid being around more vulnerable people and be more careful and assiduous about masking in public for at least a week, up to two weeks after you return, just in case. (And get plenty of sleep, eat well, stay at healthy hydration levels, etc. - all the usual small things that can help your own immune system function at its best.)
posted by eviemath at 4:11 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
And then avoid being around more vulnerable people and be more careful and assiduous about masking in public for at least a week, up to two weeks after you return, just in case. (And get plenty of sleep, eat well, stay at healthy hydration levels, etc. - all the usual small things that can help your own immune system function at its best.)
posted by eviemath at 4:11 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I haven’t seen specific stats on how those risk mitigation strategies could impact rates of transmission for the current strains that have an R0 equal or greater to that if measles, unfortunately- sorry to not address that main part of you question. There’s just much less data being collected lately.
posted by eviemath at 4:16 AM on November 6, 2023
posted by eviemath at 4:16 AM on November 6, 2023
Best answer: There isn't any covid data that can help with these calculations any more.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:47 AM on November 6, 2023 [21 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:47 AM on November 6, 2023 [21 favorites]
are the smart people traveling, eating indoors, having large gatherings, etc.?
No.
posted by heatherlogan at 5:00 AM on November 6, 2023 [16 favorites]
No.
posted by heatherlogan at 5:00 AM on November 6, 2023 [16 favorites]
are the smart people traveling, eating indoors, having large gatherings, etc.?
On the other hand, yes.
I see almost no one even wearing a mask these days, on public transport, inside shops and restaurants, or even at gigs (I went to my first one since before covid recently). Like, easily less than 1% of people masked. This is in the UK.
I'm not saying this is right, or that it means you too shouldn't wear a mask, or that I never wear a mask. Just that I'm pretty sure at least some of those people are "smart".
posted by fabius at 5:06 AM on November 6, 2023 [40 favorites]
On the other hand, yes.
I see almost no one even wearing a mask these days, on public transport, inside shops and restaurants, or even at gigs (I went to my first one since before covid recently). Like, easily less than 1% of people masked. This is in the UK.
I'm not saying this is right, or that it means you too shouldn't wear a mask, or that I never wear a mask. Just that I'm pretty sure at least some of those people are "smart".
posted by fabius at 5:06 AM on November 6, 2023 [40 favorites]
I'm OK with a long Covid risk that resembles that of (say) a car accident.
If this is your goal, then you're fine. Have a good time. Vaxxed and relaxed gang represent!
(I highly recommend ignoring conspiracy-theory claims like "10% of covid cases turn into long covid", which a moment's thought should reveal as absurd on its face. This kind of scaremongering is based on extraordinarily broad definitions of long covid, such as not returning to full cardiorespiratory fitness for six weeks instead of three or four. )
posted by daveliepmann at 5:28 AM on November 6, 2023 [33 favorites]
If this is your goal, then you're fine. Have a good time. Vaxxed and relaxed gang represent!
(I highly recommend ignoring conspiracy-theory claims like "10% of covid cases turn into long covid", which a moment's thought should reveal as absurd on its face. This kind of scaremongering is based on extraordinarily broad definitions of long covid, such as not returning to full cardiorespiratory fitness for six weeks instead of three or four. )
posted by daveliepmann at 5:28 AM on November 6, 2023 [33 favorites]
"The smart people" is about as indefinable as the level of general covid risk these days. The data isn't there; we're all just taking our best guesses based on our personal situations, values, and risk tolerance.
But the people who are still trying hard to avoid getting long covid are, in my experience (which is just that, anecdata): not eating indoors except with a small number of trusted people who have similar risk tolerances and lifestyles, and saving travel and large gatherings to be done rarely, for really important situations. Which Thanksgiving might or might not be for you, depending on your feelings and relationships and how much of a change in risk level it would be compared to your current baseline risk tolerance. But those people are generally treating Thanksgiving through mid-January as the highest-risk time of year and not a time to be less cautious than whatever your baseline is. So they're either taking some extra precautions if they are gathering, or are shifting their family gatherings to outside that window by e.g. having an early Thanksgiving.
posted by Stacey at 5:30 AM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
But the people who are still trying hard to avoid getting long covid are, in my experience (which is just that, anecdata): not eating indoors except with a small number of trusted people who have similar risk tolerances and lifestyles, and saving travel and large gatherings to be done rarely, for really important situations. Which Thanksgiving might or might not be for you, depending on your feelings and relationships and how much of a change in risk level it would be compared to your current baseline risk tolerance. But those people are generally treating Thanksgiving through mid-January as the highest-risk time of year and not a time to be less cautious than whatever your baseline is. So they're either taking some extra precautions if they are gathering, or are shifting their family gatherings to outside that window by e.g. having an early Thanksgiving.
posted by Stacey at 5:30 AM on November 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
are the smart people traveling, eating indoors, having large gatherings, etc.?
The vast, vast majority of people are traveling, eating indoors, and attending gatherings. Not all of them are dumb. That doesn't mean you are wrong if you want to take greater precautions, just that plenty of (as in most) smart people are not limiting their lives by avoiding these things.
Around 10% of people who catch COVID will develop Long-COVID.
"Long covid" is a broad term that includes both severe, life-altering outcomes and mild symptoms that drag on for a little bit. Acknowledging that there are still a lot of ambiguities and unknowns, it seems very clear that the percent of younger, healthy-ish people getting life-altering outcomes is not nearly that high. Whatever the exact risk number is, for your demographic it is not high.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:31 AM on November 6, 2023 [22 favorites]
The vast, vast majority of people are traveling, eating indoors, and attending gatherings. Not all of them are dumb. That doesn't mean you are wrong if you want to take greater precautions, just that plenty of (as in most) smart people are not limiting their lives by avoiding these things.
Around 10% of people who catch COVID will develop Long-COVID.
"Long covid" is a broad term that includes both severe, life-altering outcomes and mild symptoms that drag on for a little bit. Acknowledging that there are still a lot of ambiguities and unknowns, it seems very clear that the percent of younger, healthy-ish people getting life-altering outcomes is not nearly that high. Whatever the exact risk number is, for your demographic it is not high.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:31 AM on November 6, 2023 [22 favorites]
are the smart people traveling, eating indoors, having large gatherings, etc.?
I'm not going to label myself smart, but I am immunocompromised. I am the only person in my extended family who is left out of large gatherings where people travel and eat indoors together, because they don't wear masks in public and many in my extended family are not boosted. I've also been shut out of my professional life. My field just had a conference and all of the people that I would have been on a panel with tested positive when they returned home.
So yeah, go forth and do what you want. Everyone else is. It is completely abnormal to shelter, not to travel, or apparently even to wear a mask in public at this point.
posted by twelve cent archie at 6:03 AM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
I'm not going to label myself smart, but I am immunocompromised. I am the only person in my extended family who is left out of large gatherings where people travel and eat indoors together, because they don't wear masks in public and many in my extended family are not boosted. I've also been shut out of my professional life. My field just had a conference and all of the people that I would have been on a panel with tested positive when they returned home.
So yeah, go forth and do what you want. Everyone else is. It is completely abnormal to shelter, not to travel, or apparently even to wear a mask in public at this point.
posted by twelve cent archie at 6:03 AM on November 6, 2023 [13 favorites]
I'm not a statistician or even a math person and I very well might not be conceptualizing this correctly so I'd invite folks to correct my logic and/or data but:
There are 7.3 million car accidents (of all levels of severity) each year according to multiple googles.
In 2022, 6.9% of adults have or have ever had ever had long Covid according tothe CDC.
There are 258 million adults in the U.S.
That means 19,665,000 adults have or have had Long Covid and there were about 29 million car accidents (for all ages) over 4 years (approximate length of pandemic).
Obviously there are a lot of factors that go into risk for both categories. I also have no data on how many actual people are in those car accidents, just the number of car accidents. But to me, these generalizing numbers means the risk of getting long covid is probably less than getting into any kind of car accident. But it's not as much less as I would expected. Certainly the risk of just getting covid itself is higher than the risk of getting into an accident.
However, in my world, most smart people are absolutely going on planes and going to conferences, jobs, parties, restaurants and family gatherings. I'm in a high risk category and I have to work in an unventilated room with other people. So I wear a mask - most of the time.
Most of this is about how you feel you can live as time goes on. Most very smart people I know just don't want to miss things like Thanksgiving anymore.
posted by ojocaliente at 6:08 AM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
There are 7.3 million car accidents (of all levels of severity) each year according to multiple googles.
In 2022, 6.9% of adults have or have ever had ever had long Covid according tothe CDC.
There are 258 million adults in the U.S.
That means 19,665,000 adults have or have had Long Covid and there were about 29 million car accidents (for all ages) over 4 years (approximate length of pandemic).
Obviously there are a lot of factors that go into risk for both categories. I also have no data on how many actual people are in those car accidents, just the number of car accidents. But to me, these generalizing numbers means the risk of getting long covid is probably less than getting into any kind of car accident. But it's not as much less as I would expected. Certainly the risk of just getting covid itself is higher than the risk of getting into an accident.
However, in my world, most smart people are absolutely going on planes and going to conferences, jobs, parties, restaurants and family gatherings. I'm in a high risk category and I have to work in an unventilated room with other people. So I wear a mask - most of the time.
Most of this is about how you feel you can live as time goes on. Most very smart people I know just don't want to miss things like Thanksgiving anymore.
posted by ojocaliente at 6:08 AM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Actually since I was using 2022 numbers for Long Covid I should have compared it to three, not four, years of car accidents. In that case the numbers of car accidents and currently having/history of Long Covid cases are quite a bit closer to each other.
posted by ojocaliente at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2023
posted by ojocaliente at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2023
We don't currently know what happens 5-10-20-30 years after having COVID (not to mention what happens to those who get it 3-5-10+ times), so anyone assuring you that your risk is low is doing some fortune-telling.
Most organizations have stopped gathering enough data for us to know basically anything, so you are on your own calculating risk. For this kind of event, probably THE most critical math you can do is how much of an asshole each attendee is, to assess the likelihood they will show up to the event with their "cold".
Ventilation - and I don't just mean someone opened one window, I mean how frequently the air in the space is exchanged combined with drawing in outside air plus filtering recirculated air - appears to be the second key. You just want to reduce your viral load exposure to reduce your risk, or maybe more accurately let your vaccines + immune system have the best possible chance of protecting you. This is really hard to upgrade in a home, but you can find some guidelines for best practices online.
We have taken some increased risks: occasional train/subway trips, taxis, Amtrak (all of these masked, though we occasionally drink something on the train). We just had friends visit via air travel but aside from working in an office they are extra cautious before coming to see us. We have eaten indoors, though we try to do it at odd hours. We took a fairly large risk doing a weekend trip to NYC, going to see 2 shows in medium-capacity theaters plus it rained literally every second we were there so there was never dry outdoor seating provided/available. We did not get COVID from that, which cheers me on some levels, but we masked with vigor at every opportunity indoors (including going out to change masks at intermission to ones that weren't breath-damp).
We're living in a very small town this month and I can't say I mask every time I run into a store, but also those stores are very nearly empty and I mostly still only use delivery and curbside pickup. We are in New England; outdoor dining is about to be a pretty grim prospect, so it'll be back to takeout and delivery 90+ percent of the time. I am fat and middle-aged, my husband is middle-aged and immunocompromised by medication that may mean vaccines don't work (it's so fun that we don't know for sure), we are afraid of getting COVID for good reasons and generally don't want to get COVID frivolously in the same way I don't want to break my leg doing something avoidable.
I'm still not interested in an indoor event like Thanksgiving unless I knew and trusted everyone involved. I'm not flying anytime soon unless it's an emergency. I'm still noping out of anywhere that feels too crowded for the airspace.
posted by Lyn Never at 6:22 AM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
Most organizations have stopped gathering enough data for us to know basically anything, so you are on your own calculating risk. For this kind of event, probably THE most critical math you can do is how much of an asshole each attendee is, to assess the likelihood they will show up to the event with their "cold".
Ventilation - and I don't just mean someone opened one window, I mean how frequently the air in the space is exchanged combined with drawing in outside air plus filtering recirculated air - appears to be the second key. You just want to reduce your viral load exposure to reduce your risk, or maybe more accurately let your vaccines + immune system have the best possible chance of protecting you. This is really hard to upgrade in a home, but you can find some guidelines for best practices online.
We have taken some increased risks: occasional train/subway trips, taxis, Amtrak (all of these masked, though we occasionally drink something on the train). We just had friends visit via air travel but aside from working in an office they are extra cautious before coming to see us. We have eaten indoors, though we try to do it at odd hours. We took a fairly large risk doing a weekend trip to NYC, going to see 2 shows in medium-capacity theaters plus it rained literally every second we were there so there was never dry outdoor seating provided/available. We did not get COVID from that, which cheers me on some levels, but we masked with vigor at every opportunity indoors (including going out to change masks at intermission to ones that weren't breath-damp).
We're living in a very small town this month and I can't say I mask every time I run into a store, but also those stores are very nearly empty and I mostly still only use delivery and curbside pickup. We are in New England; outdoor dining is about to be a pretty grim prospect, so it'll be back to takeout and delivery 90+ percent of the time. I am fat and middle-aged, my husband is middle-aged and immunocompromised by medication that may mean vaccines don't work (it's so fun that we don't know for sure), we are afraid of getting COVID for good reasons and generally don't want to get COVID frivolously in the same way I don't want to break my leg doing something avoidable.
I'm still not interested in an indoor event like Thanksgiving unless I knew and trusted everyone involved. I'm not flying anytime soon unless it's an emergency. I'm still noping out of anywhere that feels too crowded for the airspace.
posted by Lyn Never at 6:22 AM on November 6, 2023 [10 favorites]
I will be visiting family on Thanksgiving. But I'm wearing a mask now when I'm out in public so I can be with them then.
And also so I don't prevent anyone else I encounter from missing their Thanksgiving.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
And also so I don't prevent anyone else I encounter from missing their Thanksgiving.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:59 AM on November 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
I can’t speak to the risk more than others have. I see smart people who research Covid and public health around me going unmasked at times, masked at times.
Personal thoughts:
I am part of the long Covid stats in Canada and here’s what that’s looked like: I had a pretty severe case of Covid in Aug 2022. I was not hospitalized, but I was flat on my back for two weeks; exhausted to tears at times for 6-8 weeks after. Then I developed heart palpitations and had (ultimately)three atrial fibrillations. My doctor recommended I not exercise while waiting for cardiology results which, due to Covid backlog, took a while. Long story short, in Jan I was put on beta blockers and started physio (by my choice) due to all the deconditioning during that debacle (every time I moved too fast my heart rate went up over 170 and my doctor said don’t exercise more than a moderate walk.) If you had talked to me in February, which is when I participated in the research, I would have said Covid ruined my life.
Fast forward…I’m off the beta blockers because I don’t need them, my resting heart rate is low-60s and I haven’t had any bouts of a racing heart since February. I ran 6 km on a treadmill yesterday + did strength training with no issues, and that’s been consistent for months now. My energy levels approximate normal. So I’m in the 10%, don’t wish that on anyone, am not completely sure despite my cardiologist’s assertion that they are seeing people make very good recoveries and his having discharged me from cardiology that this isn’t a life-shortening issue but…my daily life is 100% as normal as it gets. I got a puppy because I’m optimistic now.
That isn’t everyone’s story but long Covid is really broadly defined right now.
My son had Covid a couple of weeks ago and I’m still okay. We isolated at home but neither of us masked.
I’m vaxxed and boosted. I wear a mask on planes and in places like theatres, and I am more selective about events. But I’m travelling, etc.
I also had Epstein-Barr (mono) as a young adult and had liver problems, neurological symptoms, and fatigue for over nine months. I almost failed out of school. I experienced a demyelination issue in my late 40s that may be related and I have some peripheral neuropathy. So I’m not new to losing the viral lottery. I also have lung issues from multiple pneumonias. All this may even inter-relate to my immune system or high ACE score. So I’ve lived my adult life knowing the flu might hospitalize or kill me, and that viral infections are not benign. It never occurred to me to stay home or mask. I feel like these are great, lifesaving tools. But I think applying them in balance is where I am right now.
I have family members, particularly seniors, that I love and treasure. For 2 years we completely isolated from some of them. I have watched their cognitive and mental health nose dive. I have watched my kids struggle post-lockdown and I’m the Covid world. Look, this stuff is hard and we’re not even immunocompromised. Sometimes we stay home. Sometimes we don’t.
But…back when I could not run for a bus without going grey due to lung problems, it never occurred to me to isolate. I can’t imagine how my life would be if I’d spent my adult life focused on mitigating that one risk.
I do want to live a healthy life. But health to me includes connection and joy. For me, this is a good year because we have boosters for current variants- that may not hold. But in my opinion living needs to go in the calculus too.
posted by warriorqueen at 7:33 AM on November 6, 2023 [17 favorites]
Personal thoughts:
I am part of the long Covid stats in Canada and here’s what that’s looked like: I had a pretty severe case of Covid in Aug 2022. I was not hospitalized, but I was flat on my back for two weeks; exhausted to tears at times for 6-8 weeks after. Then I developed heart palpitations and had (ultimately)three atrial fibrillations. My doctor recommended I not exercise while waiting for cardiology results which, due to Covid backlog, took a while. Long story short, in Jan I was put on beta blockers and started physio (by my choice) due to all the deconditioning during that debacle (every time I moved too fast my heart rate went up over 170 and my doctor said don’t exercise more than a moderate walk.) If you had talked to me in February, which is when I participated in the research, I would have said Covid ruined my life.
Fast forward…I’m off the beta blockers because I don’t need them, my resting heart rate is low-60s and I haven’t had any bouts of a racing heart since February. I ran 6 km on a treadmill yesterday + did strength training with no issues, and that’s been consistent for months now. My energy levels approximate normal. So I’m in the 10%, don’t wish that on anyone, am not completely sure despite my cardiologist’s assertion that they are seeing people make very good recoveries and his having discharged me from cardiology that this isn’t a life-shortening issue but…my daily life is 100% as normal as it gets. I got a puppy because I’m optimistic now.
That isn’t everyone’s story but long Covid is really broadly defined right now.
My son had Covid a couple of weeks ago and I’m still okay. We isolated at home but neither of us masked.
I’m vaxxed and boosted. I wear a mask on planes and in places like theatres, and I am more selective about events. But I’m travelling, etc.
I also had Epstein-Barr (mono) as a young adult and had liver problems, neurological symptoms, and fatigue for over nine months. I almost failed out of school. I experienced a demyelination issue in my late 40s that may be related and I have some peripheral neuropathy. So I’m not new to losing the viral lottery. I also have lung issues from multiple pneumonias. All this may even inter-relate to my immune system or high ACE score. So I’ve lived my adult life knowing the flu might hospitalize or kill me, and that viral infections are not benign. It never occurred to me to stay home or mask. I feel like these are great, lifesaving tools. But I think applying them in balance is where I am right now.
I have family members, particularly seniors, that I love and treasure. For 2 years we completely isolated from some of them. I have watched their cognitive and mental health nose dive. I have watched my kids struggle post-lockdown and I’m the Covid world. Look, this stuff is hard and we’re not even immunocompromised. Sometimes we stay home. Sometimes we don’t.
But…back when I could not run for a bus without going grey due to lung problems, it never occurred to me to isolate. I can’t imagine how my life would be if I’d spent my adult life focused on mitigating that one risk.
I do want to live a healthy life. But health to me includes connection and joy. For me, this is a good year because we have boosters for current variants- that may not hold. But in my opinion living needs to go in the calculus too.
posted by warriorqueen at 7:33 AM on November 6, 2023 [17 favorites]
I really like Violet Blue's covid resource list. They talk about long covid and what you can do,including where to find the good masks, when social distancing actually helps, specific recs on ventilation and air purification, etc. Happy Thanksgiving!
posted by kaelynski at 7:44 AM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by kaelynski at 7:44 AM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Something that was only tangentially mentioned above (avoid dehydration) is central to my experience.
I got very very sick in December of '20. It was after a child sneezed on me at the first in-person gathering I attended (just allergies! said mama). But it was also after drinking really heavily two days before. Never tested positive, but I think it was probably covid.
The only time I definitely had covid, it was after an in-person weekend-long gathering this summer where everyone tested first and was careful, and nobody had even minor possible symptoms the entire weekend. But it was a weekend of heavy drinking, and some incidental contact before or after (or possibly during, but nobody else got sick) took hold.
It's only two data points, but for me: heavy drinking --> Get sick, regardless of other mitigation. So my advice is don't drink, even if you usually would.
posted by dbx at 8:38 AM on November 6, 2023
I got very very sick in December of '20. It was after a child sneezed on me at the first in-person gathering I attended (just allergies! said mama). But it was also after drinking really heavily two days before. Never tested positive, but I think it was probably covid.
The only time I definitely had covid, it was after an in-person weekend-long gathering this summer where everyone tested first and was careful, and nobody had even minor possible symptoms the entire weekend. But it was a weekend of heavy drinking, and some incidental contact before or after (or possibly during, but nobody else got sick) took hold.
It's only two data points, but for me: heavy drinking --> Get sick, regardless of other mitigation. So my advice is don't drink, even if you usually would.
posted by dbx at 8:38 AM on November 6, 2023
Would the people you are traveling to be amenable to or resistant to having HEPA filters in the house? Someone making one of those Corsi-Rosenthal boxes? Honestly, that's the one thing I can think of that might really help because I'm reasonably assuming the weather will be cold and shitty enough in late November in PA that outside is not likely to happen. In my "warm" state people are refusing to eat outside if it's too hot or too cold out now.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:25 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:25 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Response by poster: to clarify, "smart people" was hasty word choice, I meant something like "well-informed people with good judgment who are able to take measured risks while also valuing their own emotional and physical health and that of the others around them" :)
I also value emotional health as much as physical health!
posted by icosahedron at 9:43 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I also value emotional health as much as physical health!
posted by icosahedron at 9:43 AM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I work in the public health department at a major university. I'm not a public health expert but I work with them. In my building people rarely wear masks and often have in-person meetings in meeting rooms. Some people wear masks to meetings but most don't. There's definitely a lot more hybrid meetings than pre-2020 but we're back to face-to-face as the default if people are on site.
Anecdotally, people are generally traveling more and going to dinner parties, etc, would be considered normal. I would assess the default level of covid precaution here as "get your shots, wear a N95 when in close quarters with strangers for extended periods, stay home if you're sick, otherwise proceed as normal".
I'm not asserting the above as the "right" way to go about things -- I don't fault people for being more cautious. But it does seem to be the norm these days.
posted by no regrets, coyote at 11:29 AM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Anecdotally, people are generally traveling more and going to dinner parties, etc, would be considered normal. I would assess the default level of covid precaution here as "get your shots, wear a N95 when in close quarters with strangers for extended periods, stay home if you're sick, otherwise proceed as normal".
I'm not asserting the above as the "right" way to go about things -- I don't fault people for being more cautious. But it does seem to be the norm these days.
posted by no regrets, coyote at 11:29 AM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
such as not returning to full cardiorespiratory fitness for six weeks instead of three or four
Six weeks is a long time to be kinda sick, even if you can still get out of bed and do recover fully after six weeks. I’ve seen that derail multiple university students’ semesters over the past two years, for example; and someone with inadequate sick leave or other worker protections (so, a significant proportion of US workers) might lose their job over six weeks of sluggish performance at work. The last Ed Yong article on long COVID (in the Atlantic last spring, we had a Metafilter post about it) indicated that about 1/5 of people with long covid had debilitating symptoms, about 1/5 had noticeable but fairly minor symptoms, and about 3/5 had symptoms equivalent to being hung over constantly for six or more weeks on end. So personal risk levels for long COVID should probably also take into account how much that more common middle case would disrupt or derail your life - which will vary a lot (some people have jobs where they can basically phone it in for months at a time, so could drag themselves through such an experience without any long term economic or educational damage).
I’m personally pretty big on social responsibility for public health in terms of all of us taking some precautions to make life not completely shitty and miserable for folks at higher risk, even if our personal risk is low. My partner and I also socialize indoors and unmasked with a small (<= 10 people per last year’s local public health recommendations), consistent social group approximately once a month, year-round. Our associates have public-facing jobs and don’t themselves consistently mask in public, unfortunately; but they have a history of being attentive to any cold symptoms, cancelling plans when they are maybe sick, and communicating well with us around COVID risk.
posted by eviemath at 1:12 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Six weeks is a long time to be kinda sick, even if you can still get out of bed and do recover fully after six weeks. I’ve seen that derail multiple university students’ semesters over the past two years, for example; and someone with inadequate sick leave or other worker protections (so, a significant proportion of US workers) might lose their job over six weeks of sluggish performance at work. The last Ed Yong article on long COVID (in the Atlantic last spring, we had a Metafilter post about it) indicated that about 1/5 of people with long covid had debilitating symptoms, about 1/5 had noticeable but fairly minor symptoms, and about 3/5 had symptoms equivalent to being hung over constantly for six or more weeks on end. So personal risk levels for long COVID should probably also take into account how much that more common middle case would disrupt or derail your life - which will vary a lot (some people have jobs where they can basically phone it in for months at a time, so could drag themselves through such an experience without any long term economic or educational damage).
I’m personally pretty big on social responsibility for public health in terms of all of us taking some precautions to make life not completely shitty and miserable for folks at higher risk, even if our personal risk is low. My partner and I also socialize indoors and unmasked with a small (<= 10 people per last year’s local public health recommendations), consistent social group approximately once a month, year-round. Our associates have public-facing jobs and don’t themselves consistently mask in public, unfortunately; but they have a history of being attentive to any cold symptoms, cancelling plans when they are maybe sick, and communicating well with us around COVID risk.
posted by eviemath at 1:12 PM on November 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
We haven’t returned to normal holidays. We socialize with some close friends when everyone tests first. We socialize with some recalcitrant but very low-contact family members in very small numbers without asking them to test because that conversation wouldn’t go well. We haven’t done large family gatherings since 2019.
It’s been really interesting to me to see how much “what other people are doing” is driving behavior. This is (and has been) as true of the advice that scientific advisors are dishing out as it is of lay people. Ironically this is part of why I continue to swim against the tide.
posted by eirias at 3:03 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
It’s been really interesting to me to see how much “what other people are doing” is driving behavior. This is (and has been) as true of the advice that scientific advisors are dishing out as it is of lay people. Ironically this is part of why I continue to swim against the tide.
posted by eirias at 3:03 PM on November 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
This table, based on data collected by the US Census Bureau, found that overall 14.8% of the population reported that they had ever had long COVID (symptoms lasting three months or more).
If you adjust the indicator to "ever experienced long COVID as a percentage of adults who ever had COVID, it increases to 26.6% (as of late September, 2023). This suggests that 55.5% of the population is reporting that they have had COVID.
Now, this seems high based on my anecdotal personal experience (I would have guessed a lower percent had long COVID and higher percent had ever had COVID) but that's what they got when they asked people.
posted by metahawk at 5:22 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
If you adjust the indicator to "ever experienced long COVID as a percentage of adults who ever had COVID, it increases to 26.6% (as of late September, 2023). This suggests that 55.5% of the population is reporting that they have had COVID.
Now, this seems high based on my anecdotal personal experience (I would have guessed a lower percent had long COVID and higher percent had ever had COVID) but that's what they got when they asked people.
posted by metahawk at 5:22 PM on November 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
One way to get some idea of what the risk looks like is to try out microcovid.org. In days when I really, really didn't want to get COVID at all (and when good statistics were available) this was my good to website. Now, what I would suggest is that you set up the situation that you are facing and then ignore the "risk factor" that they calculate and instead click on show calculations.
I set up a three hour indoor gathering with ten other people within fifteen feet, vaccinated and unmasked. I also set it "high" community risk levels (typical of Omicron). The calculations show a relatively risk that any one person has an active case in COVID (7 in a 1000), but given the nature and length of the gathering there is an 11% chance that someone who actively had COVID would give it to me. This puts the total risk at 0.8% for that one activity.
Of course, traveling for Thanksgiving includes a lot more exposure events than just that one. On the other hand, maybe the community risk level is only medium. Plus, even if you get COVID you probably won't get long COVID. Anyway, this gives you a way to put some very rough numbers around the risk.
Finally, Thanksgiving is only one event of the holiday season. If you took that risk every week, the chances of COVID by the end of the holiday season starts to get more and more certain. On the other hand, if this was your one big gathering of the season, you might want to take a little more risk to do something special.
posted by metahawk at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2023
I set up a three hour indoor gathering with ten other people within fifteen feet, vaccinated and unmasked. I also set it "high" community risk levels (typical of Omicron). The calculations show a relatively risk that any one person has an active case in COVID (7 in a 1000), but given the nature and length of the gathering there is an 11% chance that someone who actively had COVID would give it to me. This puts the total risk at 0.8% for that one activity.
Of course, traveling for Thanksgiving includes a lot more exposure events than just that one. On the other hand, maybe the community risk level is only medium. Plus, even if you get COVID you probably won't get long COVID. Anyway, this gives you a way to put some very rough numbers around the risk.
Finally, Thanksgiving is only one event of the holiday season. If you took that risk every week, the chances of COVID by the end of the holiday season starts to get more and more certain. On the other hand, if this was your one big gathering of the season, you might want to take a little more risk to do something special.
posted by metahawk at 5:35 PM on November 6, 2023
Well, to compare long covid risk and car accidents ..... how would you feel if you could expect to get into 1 - 2 car accidents a year, where each one carries a 10% risk of life-altering injury?
I mean, that doesn't sound rare to me, and if those were my odds of my commute I'd be looking for ways to radically reduce them.
posted by Dashy at 5:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
I mean, that doesn't sound rare to me, and if those were my odds of my commute I'd be looking for ways to radically reduce them.
posted by Dashy at 5:36 PM on November 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted. The OP's question is what is known about the risks of getting long Covid at this time.
posted by taz (staff) at 2:18 AM on November 7, 2023
posted by taz (staff) at 2:18 AM on November 7, 2023
Best answer: microcovid.org stopped updating a year ago - it ran out of contributors and isn't relevant to today's COVID landscape anymore. It's a shame because this tool was so useful when it worked.
posted by twelve cent archie at 8:00 AM on November 8, 2023
posted by twelve cent archie at 8:00 AM on November 8, 2023
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