What is the US outlook for Covid Year 3?
January 4, 2022 2:17 PM Subscribe
We (me: 58F heart failure/pacemaker, and mother: 76F in good health) are doing a self-imposed omicron-related lockdown right now, ordering groceries for delivery and cancelling any non-medical appointments. What does our next year look like?
What's going to happen with food, PPE, and household goods supply chains, gig workers who shop and deliver, the healthcare system, and the general economy over this next year?
I'd especially like links to reputable articles, but if you have a qualified opinion, I'd like to hear that too.
I have to walk the dog 3 times a day, and I'm wearing an N95 and face shield any time I leave my apartment. Mom largely stays home, but follows the same precautions if she goes out. So far, we have managed not to get Covid. But we are among those who are at high risk for long-term, life-altering side effects from even a 'mild' case.
I've faced the pandemic up until now with caution and resilience, but I'm beginning to get more and more anxious these last few weeks. Is the economy going to implode? Will I be able to get hospital care if I need it? Might I get Covid, as CNN suggests, just by being in an elevator that previously held a person who is contagious?
What's going to happen with food, PPE, and household goods supply chains, gig workers who shop and deliver, the healthcare system, and the general economy over this next year?
I'd especially like links to reputable articles, but if you have a qualified opinion, I'd like to hear that too.
I have to walk the dog 3 times a day, and I'm wearing an N95 and face shield any time I leave my apartment. Mom largely stays home, but follows the same precautions if she goes out. So far, we have managed not to get Covid. But we are among those who are at high risk for long-term, life-altering side effects from even a 'mild' case.
I've faced the pandemic up until now with caution and resilience, but I'm beginning to get more and more anxious these last few weeks. Is the economy going to implode? Will I be able to get hospital care if I need it? Might I get Covid, as CNN suggests, just by being in an elevator that previously held a person who is contagious?
No one has answered yet. I will give it a shot. Are you and your mom vaccinated? If not, do that if you can.
I read a lot and follow Violet Blue’s newsletter which I can recommend: https://www.patreon.com/posts/pandemic-roundup-60493886
Omicron unlikely to crater economy. Supply chains likely to be mostly okay.
Hospital care might be difficult for a while depending on your location. Tests and maybe good masks might get harder to get for next few weeks.
How easy it is to catch Omicron isn’t well understood enough to know about elevator scenario to my knowledge.
After Omicron I don’t know when/if another wave happens. Some folks are optimistic that omicron wave will cause durable immunity for a while.
I don’t think we have earned any optimism. My fingers and toes are crossed for a good summer in any case. Not because I think it will happen, but because I am hoping.
posted by creiszhanson at 7:35 PM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
I read a lot and follow Violet Blue’s newsletter which I can recommend: https://www.patreon.com/posts/pandemic-roundup-60493886
Omicron unlikely to crater economy. Supply chains likely to be mostly okay.
Hospital care might be difficult for a while depending on your location. Tests and maybe good masks might get harder to get for next few weeks.
How easy it is to catch Omicron isn’t well understood enough to know about elevator scenario to my knowledge.
After Omicron I don’t know when/if another wave happens. Some folks are optimistic that omicron wave will cause durable immunity for a while.
I don’t think we have earned any optimism. My fingers and toes are crossed for a good summer in any case. Not because I think it will happen, but because I am hoping.
posted by creiszhanson at 7:35 PM on January 4, 2022 [1 favorite]
Over the next year is a long timeframe.
I'm in the UK where we are further into Omicron. If your experience is comparable to ours, then I think don't worry about the economy particularly, keep a half eye on your local hospital but most of the time that will be ok for emergencies etc, and lots of people you know will get Covid but it's not inevitable (people living in the same house are not always catching it from each other). Also, Omicron has spread like wildfire, which ought to mean that it dissipates after a few months. So then we'll be onto the next mutation.
If you're not vaccinated and boostered, do that.
posted by plonkee at 2:26 AM on January 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm in the UK where we are further into Omicron. If your experience is comparable to ours, then I think don't worry about the economy particularly, keep a half eye on your local hospital but most of the time that will be ok for emergencies etc, and lots of people you know will get Covid but it's not inevitable (people living in the same house are not always catching it from each other). Also, Omicron has spread like wildfire, which ought to mean that it dissipates after a few months. So then we'll be onto the next mutation.
If you're not vaccinated and boostered, do that.
posted by plonkee at 2:26 AM on January 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: I forgot to say that we both are fully vaccinated and boostered with Pfizer.
posted by QuakerMel at 7:31 AM on January 5, 2022
posted by QuakerMel at 7:31 AM on January 5, 2022
I don't think anyone can give you reliable answers to any of your questions, I'm sorry to say. I don't think there's anyone who can predict where the economy's going in non-pandemic times, never mind now. Unfortunately, the reality of variants makes your questions unanswerable. Before omicron, I didn't read anything warning about the potential for variants that are more highly transmissible but less dangerous in a vacuum, as the consensus now emerging seems to have it. It also seems to take weeks for enough data about a variant to emerge and be analyzed. The different vaccines, which vary in effectiveness ... development of drugs that can help post-infection ... the factor of needing humans to comply with things like vaccination and masking up ... it's just not possible (or more accurately, some predictive analysis is happening now that will prove correct, but no idea how you pick it out from the analysis that will prove less helpful).
For just one instance among the countless variables: A few weeks ago, the U.S. Army announced development of a vaccine (I believe now in phase 2 of trials) that attacks sort of higher up the food chain and therefore is expected to protect against all coronaviruses. Were this vaccine hugely effective and made available worldwide, covid might end up a bit player in our lives. But within the spectrum of potential effectiveness, and that of availability, and (to your question) of timing, I don't think anyone truly knows what the picture will be in 12 months.
posted by troywestfield at 8:59 AM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
For just one instance among the countless variables: A few weeks ago, the U.S. Army announced development of a vaccine (I believe now in phase 2 of trials) that attacks sort of higher up the food chain and therefore is expected to protect against all coronaviruses. Were this vaccine hugely effective and made available worldwide, covid might end up a bit player in our lives. But within the spectrum of potential effectiveness, and that of availability, and (to your question) of timing, I don't think anyone truly knows what the picture will be in 12 months.
posted by troywestfield at 8:59 AM on January 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
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posted by shadygrove at 7:34 PM on January 4, 2022 [7 favorites]