The numbers are on my side, right? Do these numbers exist?
April 26, 2011 10:59 AM Subscribe
What are the chances that my pregnancy will be normal and I'll have a healthy baby? I'm not asking for fortune-telling; I'm asking for statistics.
I'm 14 weeks pregnant. Everything to this point has been normal (NT scan, blood work, my health). However, a lot of what I've read about pregnancy ends up dwelling on possible bad outcomes. (Or, er, it's possible that *I* dwell on bad outcomes.) The internets are crawling with terrible stories of problems discovered at 20-week anatomy scans and painful decisions, stillbirths, undetected chromosomal disorders, and other really sad stuff. Then, there's always the risk of developing pre-eclampsia or having very early labor or gestational diabetes or other conditions that don't necessarily preclude having a healthy baby, but can make pregnancy scary or dangerous.
But, like, most women have normal pregnancies and healthy babies, right? How many? 999 out of 1,000? 99 of 100? More? Fewer?
There are numbers floating around about stuff like the risk of first-trimester miscarriage (it seems to range from something like 5 percent to more like 20 percent, which basically seems like a guess to me, but I guess it tries to include the elusive "miscarried before she knew she was pregnant" segment of the population). I'm looking for data that talk about the overall chance that a pregnancy will stay healthy and result in a healthy baby. Does this data exist? Who would collect it?
I'm most interested in numbers for the US. I'd prefer statistics for women who are getting medical care, rather than women who are not, but I'm not sure if this level of detail exists.
(I'm looking for actual numbers here, not reassurance that "most of the time it's fine." Also, I know that spending too much time on the internet eats your brain and makes you crazy; I'm not really doing that.)
Bonus question: Who studies this? Is this epidemiology?
I'm 14 weeks pregnant. Everything to this point has been normal (NT scan, blood work, my health). However, a lot of what I've read about pregnancy ends up dwelling on possible bad outcomes. (Or, er, it's possible that *I* dwell on bad outcomes.) The internets are crawling with terrible stories of problems discovered at 20-week anatomy scans and painful decisions, stillbirths, undetected chromosomal disorders, and other really sad stuff. Then, there's always the risk of developing pre-eclampsia or having very early labor or gestational diabetes or other conditions that don't necessarily preclude having a healthy baby, but can make pregnancy scary or dangerous.
But, like, most women have normal pregnancies and healthy babies, right? How many? 999 out of 1,000? 99 of 100? More? Fewer?
There are numbers floating around about stuff like the risk of first-trimester miscarriage (it seems to range from something like 5 percent to more like 20 percent, which basically seems like a guess to me, but I guess it tries to include the elusive "miscarried before she knew she was pregnant" segment of the population). I'm looking for data that talk about the overall chance that a pregnancy will stay healthy and result in a healthy baby. Does this data exist? Who would collect it?
I'm most interested in numbers for the US. I'd prefer statistics for women who are getting medical care, rather than women who are not, but I'm not sure if this level of detail exists.
(I'm looking for actual numbers here, not reassurance that "most of the time it's fine." Also, I know that spending too much time on the internet eats your brain and makes you crazy; I'm not really doing that.)
Bonus question: Who studies this? Is this epidemiology?
The OB should be able to tell you rough odds on many things because they are in a position to know the various risk factors that are specific to your case.
posted by k5.user at 11:08 AM on April 26, 2011
posted by k5.user at 11:08 AM on April 26, 2011
If you weren't anonymous, I'd ask you why you want to know this.
I think I can explain instead, if I may...I get the same way, where sometimes I obsess about some potential bad outcome, and sometimes if I look at the data that says that the potential bad outcome is statistically unlikely, it's enough to make the panicked lizard brain side of me shut up and go away. It's not necessarily logical, but neither is the part of my brain that's having the meltdown.
OP: This site may be useful; it states the numbers of miscarriages, complications from pregnancy, etc., but it also states that out of the 6,000,000 pregnancies there are in the U.S. every year on average, 4,058,000 go on to live births. That is almost 70% of all pregnancies.
Hope that begins to help.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:10 AM on April 26, 2011 [1 favorite]
I think I can explain instead, if I may...I get the same way, where sometimes I obsess about some potential bad outcome, and sometimes if I look at the data that says that the potential bad outcome is statistically unlikely, it's enough to make the panicked lizard brain side of me shut up and go away. It's not necessarily logical, but neither is the part of my brain that's having the meltdown.
OP: This site may be useful; it states the numbers of miscarriages, complications from pregnancy, etc., but it also states that out of the 6,000,000 pregnancies there are in the U.S. every year on average, 4,058,000 go on to live births. That is almost 70% of all pregnancies.
Hope that begins to help.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:10 AM on April 26, 2011 [1 favorite]
Your age is a significant factor. Increased age is strongly correlated with Down's Syndrome and other genetic problems. There's some research; The longer you stay pregnant, the better the odds of successful outcome.
In my experience, people love to tell pregnant women horror stories; stop them. "Thanks, Mom-In-Law, for sharing that terrible story about how some random person had a baby with 2 heads and a tail, but I'm already worried. Tell me what cravings you had when you were pregnant." Are you in a 1st world country and do you have good medical care? Your odds of a healthy baby are very, very good. You can help your odds by following standard medical advice.
It's terrifying that you could have a baby who would need medical care and intervention, but it's kind of a precursor to having a child. There are things to worry about every step of the way, and mostly, kids turn out okay. Good luck.
posted by theora55 at 11:16 AM on April 26, 2011
In my experience, people love to tell pregnant women horror stories; stop them. "Thanks, Mom-In-Law, for sharing that terrible story about how some random person had a baby with 2 heads and a tail, but I'm already worried. Tell me what cravings you had when you were pregnant." Are you in a 1st world country and do you have good medical care? Your odds of a healthy baby are very, very good. You can help your odds by following standard medical advice.
It's terrifying that you could have a baby who would need medical care and intervention, but it's kind of a precursor to having a child. There are things to worry about every step of the way, and mostly, kids turn out okay. Good luck.
posted by theora55 at 11:16 AM on April 26, 2011
I had a miscarriage at 15 weeks due to a chromosomal abnormality with the fetus. Later, when I was expressing terror at the idea of getting pregnant and having to go through another fetal death, my OB told me that 95% of women at that stage of pregnancy go on to have a live birth. I have no studies or anything to back that up though. Best wishes with your pregnancy.
posted by crankylex at 11:16 AM on April 26, 2011
posted by crankylex at 11:16 AM on April 26, 2011
Also do note that at EmpressCallipygos's site, the nearly 2 million pregnancy loses include 1.2 million terminations, which will include terminations for medical reasons but the bulk of them are elective. This table suggests around 13% of abortions are for medical reasons.
CDC Report: "The U.S. fetal mortality rate in 2003 was 6.23 fetal deaths of 20 weeks of gestation or more per 1,000 live births and fetal deaths. [...] Fetal mortality rates are higher for a number of groups, including non-Hispanic black women, teen-agers, women aged 35 years and over, unmarried women, and multiple deliveries."
That report has more US-based statistics than you can shake a stick at, and I think you can find lots of the granularity in data that you're looking for. Once you're past 12 weeks, your risk for problems is dramatically lower. But yes, your age makes a huge difference, as can your race, and (obviously) your access to prenatal care.
But really, ask your ob. You won't be the first or last person to ask, and they can give you some information based on your personal health situation and life history.
I know you said you don't want to hear, "it'll be fine!" but I hope that since I found the CDC report I can be forgiven a digression. The stories you are hearing are, overwhelmingly, worst-case scenarios that get repeated precisely because they are outliers. I'm pregnant and I suffer from the same sorts of fears you do. And I spent a large part of yesterday in the ER getting rehydrated because apparently I suck at drinking water. (No, seriously, I've been ill and I have terrible pregnancy nausea.) This is the second time this pregnancy I've had to be IV-rehydrated. Here's the thing, and here's what I keep telling myself to keep the crazy under control: Things that would have been worst-case scenarios 100 years ago or 50 years ago or even 30 years ago are SO ROUTINE AND BORING today. You live in a time and place with unprecedented medical technology at its disposal such that my two trips to the emergency department have been THE MOST BORING EMERGENCIES IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD since it's totally routine and unremarkable. I even get to drive myself. They need a secondary emergency room with a name that means "totally routine problems that really have to be dealt with today and require an actual hospital, but are nothing even vaguely like emergencies." ("Oh, yeah, I had to go to the Problem Room at the hospital today, no biggie.") My first child was undeliverably breech in a way that would have been deadly 100 years ago. They solved that with an hour-long surgery that I was awake for! I was breastfeeding two hours after being cut in half! I walked out of the hospital under my own power four days later! I mean, honestly, maternity care is amazing these days.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 11:56 AM on April 26, 2011 [11 favorites]
CDC Report: "The U.S. fetal mortality rate in 2003 was 6.23 fetal deaths of 20 weeks of gestation or more per 1,000 live births and fetal deaths. [...] Fetal mortality rates are higher for a number of groups, including non-Hispanic black women, teen-agers, women aged 35 years and over, unmarried women, and multiple deliveries."
That report has more US-based statistics than you can shake a stick at, and I think you can find lots of the granularity in data that you're looking for. Once you're past 12 weeks, your risk for problems is dramatically lower. But yes, your age makes a huge difference, as can your race, and (obviously) your access to prenatal care.
But really, ask your ob. You won't be the first or last person to ask, and they can give you some information based on your personal health situation and life history.
I know you said you don't want to hear, "it'll be fine!" but I hope that since I found the CDC report I can be forgiven a digression. The stories you are hearing are, overwhelmingly, worst-case scenarios that get repeated precisely because they are outliers. I'm pregnant and I suffer from the same sorts of fears you do. And I spent a large part of yesterday in the ER getting rehydrated because apparently I suck at drinking water. (No, seriously, I've been ill and I have terrible pregnancy nausea.) This is the second time this pregnancy I've had to be IV-rehydrated. Here's the thing, and here's what I keep telling myself to keep the crazy under control: Things that would have been worst-case scenarios 100 years ago or 50 years ago or even 30 years ago are SO ROUTINE AND BORING today. You live in a time and place with unprecedented medical technology at its disposal such that my two trips to the emergency department have been THE MOST BORING EMERGENCIES IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD since it's totally routine and unremarkable. I even get to drive myself. They need a secondary emergency room with a name that means "totally routine problems that really have to be dealt with today and require an actual hospital, but are nothing even vaguely like emergencies." ("Oh, yeah, I had to go to the Problem Room at the hospital today, no biggie.") My first child was undeliverably breech in a way that would have been deadly 100 years ago. They solved that with an hour-long surgery that I was awake for! I was breastfeeding two hours after being cut in half! I walked out of the hospital under my own power four days later! I mean, honestly, maternity care is amazing these days.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 11:56 AM on April 26, 2011 [11 favorites]
I avoided every pregnancy website like the plague during my pregnancy. I guess I was considered "high risk" for more than a few reasons, but I decided to go through my pregnancy with equanimity and not dwell on those factors.
Those websites will disturb you and cause stress and ruin what should be one of the BEST times of your life. Especially the user comments. AVOID. AVOID. AVOID.
(And if you don't think your OB/GYN is on top of things enough, don't be afraid to switch doctors. Your peace of mind is paramount right now!)
posted by jbenben at 11:56 AM on April 26, 2011
Those websites will disturb you and cause stress and ruin what should be one of the BEST times of your life. Especially the user comments. AVOID. AVOID. AVOID.
(And if you don't think your OB/GYN is on top of things enough, don't be afraid to switch doctors. Your peace of mind is paramount right now!)
posted by jbenben at 11:56 AM on April 26, 2011
The rate of a first trimester miscarriage depends on what you count as a miscarriage. Something like 50% of pregancies result in a miscarriage, but the only reason we know this is that pregnancy tests have gotten better and better, so we know about the pregnancy earlier and earlier. Previously this would have been a late period (or perhaps not even late) and not considered a miscarriage.
About 10-20% of pregnancies where the woman knew she was pregnant end in a miscarriage and the vast majority of those occur before 12 weeks. 14 weeks? You are in much safer territory.
The odds of a chromosomal abnormality are low. About 1 in 100 (depending on your age). Of course, you and the father might be carrying some wierd ass recessive gene, but wierd ass recessive genes are, by their nature, not very likely.
It really depends on your age, but you probably have better than a 95% chance of having a healthy baby at this point. Good news for you, bad news for sleep.
Note: I'm not a doctor and I wouldn't be your doctor even if I were one. This is based on what the Lady Lurgi and I have been going through and some stats I read on the web (which is always totally accurate).
posted by It's Never Lurgi at 11:57 AM on April 26, 2011 [1 favorite]
About 10-20% of pregnancies where the woman knew she was pregnant end in a miscarriage and the vast majority of those occur before 12 weeks. 14 weeks? You are in much safer territory.
The odds of a chromosomal abnormality are low. About 1 in 100 (depending on your age). Of course, you and the father might be carrying some wierd ass recessive gene, but wierd ass recessive genes are, by their nature, not very likely.
It really depends on your age, but you probably have better than a 95% chance of having a healthy baby at this point. Good news for you, bad news for sleep.
Note: I'm not a doctor and I wouldn't be your doctor even if I were one. This is based on what the Lady Lurgi and I have been going through and some stats I read on the web (which is always totally accurate).
posted by It's Never Lurgi at 11:57 AM on April 26, 2011 [1 favorite]
BTW - Yes the numbers exist. Just telling you I choose not to look at them and I don't regret that at all. I was you 10 months ago. You can make the choice to listen to your body instead of statistics.
Enjoy your pregnancy!
posted by jbenben at 11:59 AM on April 26, 2011
Enjoy your pregnancy!
posted by jbenben at 11:59 AM on April 26, 2011
Absent a particular finding, there is NO WAY to know whether your pregnancy will turn out fine or not. Statistics pertain to populations and can offer very very little of what you're looking for. Conditions that have a 1% incidence happen to 1 person out of 100 and there is very little that can tell you whether *you* are the 1 or among the 99.
Even of the stats are entirely accurate, the framing will totally alter your conclusions. If you are told you have a 90% chance of a successful outcome, you'll feel different than if you're told you have a 10% chance of a disaster, even though these are the same thing.
Since you cannot know what the outcome is going to be in the absence of a specific finding, why not choose a belief that serves you, that makes you feel good? Choose to believe that everything is going to be fine unless you have a particular test that tells you otherwise.
posted by jasper411 at 1:03 PM on April 26, 2011
Even of the stats are entirely accurate, the framing will totally alter your conclusions. If you are told you have a 90% chance of a successful outcome, you'll feel different than if you're told you have a 10% chance of a disaster, even though these are the same thing.
Since you cannot know what the outcome is going to be in the absence of a specific finding, why not choose a belief that serves you, that makes you feel good? Choose to believe that everything is going to be fine unless you have a particular test that tells you otherwise.
posted by jasper411 at 1:03 PM on April 26, 2011
Since you cannot know what the outcome is going to be in the absence of a specific finding, why not choose a belief that serves you, that makes you feel good? Choose to believe that everything is going to be fine unless you have a particular test that tells you otherwise.
In the OP's defense -- that's what she's trying to do, I believe. And looking at things that say things like "hey, 4 million out of 6 million pregnancies are just fine" is what will make the worry demons go away so she can do that -- it's "proof" enough that no news from the doctor is actually good news.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:07 PM on April 26, 2011
In the OP's defense -- that's what she's trying to do, I believe. And looking at things that say things like "hey, 4 million out of 6 million pregnancies are just fine" is what will make the worry demons go away so she can do that -- it's "proof" enough that no news from the doctor is actually good news.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:07 PM on April 26, 2011
Empress, I'm not attacking the OP at all. I'm just pointing out that some of us are wired such that we always see the downside of the stats. In your example, I immediately thought, "OMG, 2 million pregnancies aren't fine!!!????"
If stats work, great! My worry demons are not so easily tamed.
posted by jasper411 at 2:49 PM on April 26, 2011
If stats work, great! My worry demons are not so easily tamed.
posted by jasper411 at 2:49 PM on April 26, 2011
I know you are all trying to comfort and ease the OP's mind, but there still are not many numbers in this thread. I think this is an excellent question - statistics certainly don't address individual situations, but sometimes it feels good to know statistics! I have often wondered this myself, given the "Autism has increased by X%" and "X number of children are born with X" figures you hear on PSAs, etc.
I am NOT an expert and spent only about 10 minutes reading answers and googling, but here's what I found. I searched "percentage healthy births" on Google and found this article, which states that 96 or 97 out of every 100 births in the US are "healthy," with no birth defects. I am assuming this does not include developmental disorders, etc that would appear later in life, so I'm not sure if I have answered the question - but at least those are numbers! Looking forward to reading more numerical answers!
posted by keribear at 4:22 PM on April 26, 2011
I am NOT an expert and spent only about 10 minutes reading answers and googling, but here's what I found. I searched "percentage healthy births" on Google and found this article, which states that 96 or 97 out of every 100 births in the US are "healthy," with no birth defects. I am assuming this does not include developmental disorders, etc that would appear later in life, so I'm not sure if I have answered the question - but at least those are numbers! Looking forward to reading more numerical answers!
posted by keribear at 4:22 PM on April 26, 2011
Once the NT scan and the bloodwork are good, things are really, really, REALLY good. Did they quote you risk numbers for t21 and other nondisjunctions? Because if they did, you can take them to the bank; those risk assessments are really solid. At this point, you can safely have some faith that everything is fine with your baby; what you're looking for, now, is the risks to your pregnancy. Stuff like premature birth, cord accidents, stuff like that.
The March of Dimes has good information about what you're looking for. Do remember that their information is presented from a fundraising perspective, and will be spun a little alarmist as a result. Also bear in mind that their raw numbers for things like premature birth and stillbirth include fetal aneuploidy and birth defects, which you're very low risk for now.
I know exactly what you're looking for, and why; I was the same way in both my term pregnancies. I have two perfect beautiful healthy children. Good luck, and feel free to memail.
posted by KathrynT at 4:47 PM on April 26, 2011
The March of Dimes has good information about what you're looking for. Do remember that their information is presented from a fundraising perspective, and will be spun a little alarmist as a result. Also bear in mind that their raw numbers for things like premature birth and stillbirth include fetal aneuploidy and birth defects, which you're very low risk for now.
I know exactly what you're looking for, and why; I was the same way in both my term pregnancies. I have two perfect beautiful healthy children. Good luck, and feel free to memail.
posted by KathrynT at 4:47 PM on April 26, 2011
We have a healthy 8 week old little girl who is awesome. My wife miscarried her previous pregnancy. When we found out she was pregnant again we asked what the chances are it would happen again. He said 80% of pregnancies are healthy, about 19% end in miscarriage, and 1% have to be terminated due to issues like a tubal pregnancy. He said that once a heartbeat was detected, the chance of a severe problem dropped to 2%. I don't have a citation or a good definition of "a severe problem" but hopefully it helps.
posted by Silvertree at 2:45 PM on April 27, 2011 [1 favorite]
posted by Silvertree at 2:45 PM on April 27, 2011 [1 favorite]
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posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:01 AM on April 26, 2011