Keep aging 4Runner or replace with low-mileage (but theft-prone) Soul?

April 11, 2024 1:12 PM

I've held on to a reliable older 4Runner for quite awhile because I dread the headache of having to replace it in the current market. I now have a chance to replace it with a newer, low-mileage model with minimal fuss. Only problem: it's a Kia Soul.

My current vehicle is a '96 (3rd generation) Toyota 4Runner Limited, which thanks to a short commute and few long-haul trips has a relatively low mileage of "only" ~140k miles. Since 4Runners of that vintage are famously reliable (our local weather guy boasts that his has well over 300k miles), I was planning on holding on to it for as long as possible, until the market settles down a fair bit (and ideally EVs become more affordable and practical). It does have some minor issues -- a windshield crack, a slightly deflating tire, a weak air conditioner, and some undercarriage oil seepage, but it otherwise drives fine and has served me well.

A trusted contact is looking to sell a surplus '14 (2nd generation) Kia Soul, a single-owner model which also has impressively low mileage for its age, just over 10,000 miles. It's in great condition and has all the safety and creature comforts of a more modern vehicle: Bluetooth, better fuel economy, curtain airbags, working AC (important in the swampy South). They're valuing it at about $10k (what the dealership offered them), which seems fair for the mileage and age and within my price range.

Normally this would be a good deal (at least compared to the current market), but I'm concerned about the Kia Boys factor (in short, the lack of an immobilizer in some Kia models that make them especially ripe targets for theft which went viral on TikTok). It's been hard to get a definitive answer from the local dealership or online, but AFAICT this is one of the model years that did not get an immobilizer installed. Worse, it doesn't look eligible for a simple software upgrade -- best it can get is a free steering wheel club. I worry about smashed windows from attempted thefts, even if the car itself isn't actually stolen. And the insurance is a big question mark as well -- I was anticipating an increase over my relatively cheap 4Runner policy, but the added theft risk could boost that by a lot, and I've even read about some companies outright refusing to cover certain models in some areas.

Questions:

- Would you consider $10k a fair valuation for a 2014 Kia Soul with this mileage and condition?
- How reliable, long-term, are 2nd-generation Souls? Any common problems to look out for?
- What's the best way to estimate insurance costs for a newer vehicle? Will my current insurer give a straight answer or are they liable to lowball the actual rate (especially given the unusual theft risk)? Are there online tools that will offer a more realistic estimate?
- What is the theft/vandalism risk these days? If you or someone you know owns an affected Kia, have they still been experiencing this problem or has the fad died out?
- Any better aftermarket solutions for the Kia than the steering wheel club?
- On balance, is trading in the 4Runner for this Kia a good idea or would I be better off putting a fraction of the cost into giving the 4Runner a full tune-up and waiting for costs to come down?

posted by Rhaomi to Travel & Transportation (25 answers total)

What's the best way to estimate insurance costs for a newer vehicle? Will my current insurer give a straight answer or are they liable to lowball the actual rate (especially given the unusual theft risk)? Are there online tools that will offer a more realistic estimate?

If you give them the vin they should give you an actual binding quote, not just an estimate.
posted by anastasiav at 1:17 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]

Response by poster: Update: got a call back from the Kia dealership that for this model they are now offering a free hardware "anti-theft deterrent" solution, basically a metal housing around the ignition to prevent thieves from breaking into it to do the USB hotwire thing. So it's not a total bust on security, if that makes any difference.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:33 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]

I'm hearing a lot of chatter that those anti-theft devices aren't very effective and people will still break into your car to trash it. A friend of mine had their Kia stolen twice in less than a year, most recently in 2023, and if I recall correctly they had an anti-theft device of some kind the second time.

If there's a lot of car theft in your area (there is around here, per statistics) I don't think you should get the Kia.
posted by Frowner at 1:42 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]

You should look at the insurance costs. They have gone up significantly for Kia’s of this age.
posted by nickggully at 1:46 PM on April 11 [3 favorites]

I'm jealous of your 4Runner

I think the temptation is to get the new thing, but if your 4Runner is running nicely you have a few years, quite possibly several, before you need to find a replacement vehicle.

my friend was driving his 4Runner on Vancouver Island well past 300k, it was the rust damage to the body that did it in. my other friend's early 90s Tercel is indestructible. you're lucky.
posted by elkevelvet at 1:46 PM on April 11 [6 favorites]

- Would you consider $10k a fair valuation for a 2014 Kia Soul with this mileage and condition?

No. I see a 2017 with less miles for $7450. I can't judge your concern about it getting stolen, but per-capita the Kia Soul is not in the top 20 stolen cars. Kia Rio, Kia Sportage, and Kia Forte are.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:46 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]

I'm concerned about the Kia Boys factor

Whenever you read an article about how "the ten-year-olds of today are banding together to do [x terrible thing]! They're even coordinating on the social medias to do it! #smashtheworldsshell is trending on TikBop!", you should reach for your salt shaker. Then you do some critical reading. How many incidents have actually, concretely been identified? By what sources (remember, a cop saying "yeah, this is totally happening," without more, is not a reliable source)? Are those incidents actually linked to the Big Scary Trend? Where did they happen? When did they happen? Is there close proximity to you, or some reason to think it will spread near you? Are the descriptions you're hearing sensationalistic, and, if so, how well are they backed up? Are there possible alternative explanations for any confirmed events or identified trends?

Because...these supposed phenomena are not always and entirely bullshit, but before you let their purported existence govern a significant decision, you probably should analyze them with some rigor. I mean, it sounds like there is an actual particular vulnerability to theft of some of these models (though how different this is from other older key-start models, I do not know), and I wouldn't be shocked to learn that there's an actual pack of 15-year-olds in Indiana somewhere who are taking advantage of it for now, but ask yourself: are you picturing roving bands of Kia Boys summoned into existence by a TikTok, blanketing the nation?
posted by praemunire at 1:50 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]

Have you taken it to a tire shop to find the leak? That could be a $50 fix.

I would not trade one of the most reliable trucks ever built for a barely driven car of that age. Low mileage can also be a curse. Various bits and seals dry up when not regularly used.
posted by Huggiesbear at 1:52 PM on April 11 [7 favorites]

I have a 2000 Jeep Cherokee, so the same vintage as your 4Runner. I don't think I'll get rid of that vehicle any time soon.

I'd keep the older vehicle. Have a shop do a once over on it to fix the items you listed. Even if it costs $2k, you are still $8k ahead of the game. If you really want, take some of that savings down to the local car audio place to put in a modern stereo in it. Or go the DIY route like I did. I now have a wireless CarPlay compatible Kenwood in my jeep complete with backup camera and dash cam that I picked up on crutchfield.
posted by SegFaultCoreDump at 2:03 PM on April 11 [5 favorites]

I live in Milwaukee. I would never ever buy a Kia or Hyundai, and I actively discourage other people from buying them. The Kia Boys trend pretty much started here, and so many Kias and Hyundais have been stolen. It is crazy. Please do not ever buy a Kia or Hyundai. Stick with your 4Runner, put a few bucks into it if you have the money, but don't buy a Kia. Especially one from that era, but even the new ones I don't trust. If Kia screwed up this badly before, oh, and there's this issue too, don't think they'll change.
posted by Slinga at 2:10 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]

(My friend's twice-stolen car was a Kia Soul, not one of the others.)
posted by Frowner at 2:15 PM on April 11

I'm with Frowner. Here in Chicago I would not buy a Kia or Hyundai. They are targeted for theft so frequently, it's not even close. A cracked windshield can be replaced. A leaky tire can be replaced or fixed. The A/C thing does suck (I've lived with a weak A/C in the past and even up here in Chicago it really sucked), but have you gotten it checked out? That could be a simple fix too.

Unfortunately, the targeting of Kias and Hyundais is not a situation of a single "pack of 15 year olds in Indiana" being blown out of proportion by an overhyped news media and police departments. It is real, and the data shows it is significant.

But do check the data in your area, if possible. Milwaukee/Chicago/Buffalo is a definite no, but maybe other cities the calculus would be different. The only thing that gives me pause about keeping the older truck is the lack of side airbags, but if you don't drive a ton of miles then your risk is lower.
posted by misskaz at 2:43 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]

Does the 4Runner have anti-lock brakes? That and front airbags are the safety features I basically won't get into a vehicle without. Particularly on wet or loose pavement antilock brakes make a huge difference both in stopping distance and control while braking. I worry less about side curtain airbags in a larger, heavier vehicle like the 4Runner. Vehicles have certainly gotten safer (for their occupants), especially in offset crashes and rollovers, but it's not a dramatic difference in accident avoidance and survivability.

I think you're right to wait on an EV, if battery prices keep going the way they are EV's will be much more affordable in just a few years.
posted by wnissen at 2:59 PM on April 11

I don't know if I can answer your specific questions, but I've had a Kia Soul since 2016 and I love it. It's reliable, comfortable, roomy (but easy to park.) I park it regularly in the not very nice neighborhood where I work and no one has ever attempted to break into it.
posted by tangosnail at 3:29 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]

It is real, and the data shows it is significant.

Really? If I'm reading it right, that data shows absolute numbers, not percentages of the population (and the percentages in the second article don't normalize for the percentage of Kias in the population), and it lumps together all the brand's cars, including the ones without the design flaw (seems like all 2021-present models?), so you can't really tell (maybe, but maybe not). Meanwhile, even some of the cops quoted in the underlying article say they haven't seen this trend, so it appears to be localized if it's happening (which makes sense since you have to be physically in the same space as the car to steal it).

Basically: the design vulnerability is real (though, again, not sure how unique it is to Kias--in fact, it sounds like '96 4Runners don't have immobilizers, either, though I will definitely defer to anyone with superior car knowledge on this one!) and should be taken into consideration in purchasing, especially if there are local issues of car theft, Kias or no; claims of marauding gangs of 11-year-old Kia Boys across the nation rallied by social media to steal your car should be regarded with a lot more skepticism.
posted by praemunire at 3:51 PM on April 11

Response by poster: Insurance update: spent an unexpectedly long time on the phone with my insurer after getting an online quote for the Kia that was significantly less, despite the newer model, lower mileage, and increased theft risk. Turns out it's roughly the same price as renewing the current 4Runner policy (which is a whole 'nother question), but at least in terms of insurance coverage, both options will be about the same.

PS: The customer service rep I talked to also had a Soul... which has already been stolen once. 😬
posted by Rhaomi at 4:33 PM on April 11

You should definitely get an actual quote for insurance because, even if the 'Kia Boys' fad has passed, insurance companies are totally driven by data and a car that shows up as a high risk for theft will attract high premiums. The insurance company will assess the risk based on where the car will be kept, so that will dramatically impact insurance rates.

The Soul is not likely to actually be any easier to steal than the 4Runner anyway, especially with the hardware upgrade (which may make it harder to actually steal, but doesn't change the risk of someone trying), but it may be more of a target because of the known vulnerability. It's pretty easy to add measures to a car that make it much harder to steal (eg hidden kill switches), but that doesn't negate the risk of someone damaging the car to get into it even if they can't steal it.

Don't rely on a steering wheel club - they are next to useless and won't dissuade anyone from smashing your window to at least try and get the club off.

I wonder if you'd be better to spend some money on your current car - fix the aircon, get a new set of tyres, a windscreen and a nice sound system with Bluetooth, all of which would bring the 4runner up to the standard of the Soul in terms of creature comforts. There's nothing wrong with a car just because it's a bit old and at least it's a known quantity. Personally, I wouldn't be worried about the lack of side airbags unless you are inclined to get in accidents and airbags are not the perfect solution that many think they are. On a purely financial basis, you're probably better off getting the 4Runner up to scratch and putting the rest of the money aside to put towards an EV in a few years. It's not as clear-cut as it may seem though, because the Soul will be worth a lot more as a trade-in in a few years than the 4Runner, which will be worth almost zero.

If it were me, I'd probably opt for the newer car just on the basis that it will be nicer to drive and less likely to have expensive repairs needed over the next few years. I would not be thinking of a well-used EV at any time though, because of my concern over the lifespan of the batteries.
posted by dg at 4:40 PM on April 11

Just as a data point, my partner and I bought a house very recently in a safe suburb of a mid-sized American city, and when we looked into bundling home and auto insurance, nearly all the insurance companies we spoke with wouldn’t even insure her comparable year Kia Soul. Actuaries gonna actuary, so that tells me it’s not just a hype thing, but a measurable and significant risk for insurance companies.
posted by HVACDC_Bag at 5:03 PM on April 11

My adult kid and their partner just had their Kia Soul stolen and crashed, unrepairable. Although I hear the phenomenon is dying down, I will wouldn't get one, even with all the add-ons to keep it from being stolen, because it's now what they call an attrative nuisance.
posted by Peach at 5:19 PM on April 11

The critical question for your 4Runner is how bad is the rust? Everything else is worth fixing, although that oil seepage may be an expensive issue.

I myself wouldn't want a Soul regardless of theft or insurance issues. And yeah, the mileage is so low that it sat for most of the last decade, which can definitely mean a whole set of issues you also don't want to deal with.

I'd get a full diagnostic look by a good shop at the 4Runner. Would putting 5-10k into that get you another 100k miles out of it?

Brand new 4Runner just revealed this week by the way.
posted by spitbull at 5:38 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]

Whenever you read an article about how "the ten-year-olds of today are banding together to do [x terrible thing]! They're even coordinating on the social medias to do it! #smashtheworldsshell is trending on TikBop!", you should reach for your salt shaker. Then you do some critical reading. How many incidents have actually, concretely been identified? By what sources (remember, a cop saying "yeah, this is totally happening," without more, is not a reliable source)? Are those incidents actually linked to the Big Scary Trend? Where did they happen? When did they happen? Is there close proximity to you, or
some reason to think it will spread near you? Are the descriptions you're hearing sensationalistic, and, if so, how well are they backed up? Are there possible alternative explanations for any confirmed events or identified trends?

Minneapolis police in May of last year had 1900 Kia and Hyundai thefts in the first four months of 2023. In the same period the year before it was around 100. In Denver they went from 7% of all auto thefts to 26% in a year. In 2020 theft rates on those cars was 1 per 1000 insured. In 2023 it was 11.2 per thousand.

Next door to our office is an insurance office, and they’re good friends. They said several insurers aren’t writing new comp/collision on affected models, which I found to be the case when I recently shopped rates on our cars, one of which is a 2014 Soul. I know someone who had their Kia stolen twice in the span of a few months, the second time it was totaled.

It’s a very real thing. Yes, it’s a social media phenomenon, but part of what makes it a problem is how easy and how quick it is. You break the back window, which doesn’t have a breakage sensor and won’t trip the alarm. You spend a couple of moments fiddling with the ignition with common tools and you’re gone with the car. It’s really easy and it doesn’t take too many people to steal a lot of cars. They mostly just take them joyriding and tear them up, as well as put other drivers at risk.

Now for OP… what do you want to do with the vehicle? It won’t go offroad like your 4Runner and it’s not paid off like your vehicle is either. 140k miles on a 96 4Runner is pretty much nothing. Now to the Kia. I have this exact vehicle. It has been a good car for us. We bought it in 2016 with 14k miles on it and have put close to 100k on it since then. The car hasn’t really given us any problems. It sits well and I’ve never had any issues with comfort and neither has my wife. We’ve taken it on multiple long trips ranging from 700 to 2000 miles. (Another advantage - tires are not expensive compared to larger vehicles!) We average around 30 mpg which is likely a damn sight better than your current vehicle.

All that said, there are *multiple* recalls on these cars for several different things. Getting the work done has not been a hassle for us but you do need to get them done if they haven’t been already. It ranges from steering components to engine management issues. These repairs are free at the dealer.

It all depends on what you value on your current vehicle. You could spend the money and make the repairs, but the difference between those costs and buying the Kia may be offset by fuel costs especially as we get into summer and prices go way up.
posted by azpenguin at 6:12 PM on April 11 [1 favorite]

Car thefts are also not particularly significant, they are bouncing off historic lows, so they are slightly rising.

Like if so many insurance carriers are balking at insuring Kias, WTF where they doing back in 1990 when car thefts were almost 3X higher? Also 2019 was the around the bottom of the trough, so comparing then is gaming the statistics.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:10 PM on April 11

That was a rhetorical question by the way; I was alive back in 1990, the heyday of The Club Other than cheesy commercials I don't recall many losing sleep over their cars being stolen.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:16 PM on April 11

Mod note: One deleted, let's not turn this into a debate please.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane (staff) at 2:45 AM on April 12

Love my 2011 kia soul. It is a trouper. Such a great car. Yes they sent us the club. Yes it has quirks because of its age and high mileage, but they are reliable quirks. I have a lot of range-rover relatives in the UK--a place where people can be very snobby about the kia brand--and I love seeing the dismay on their faces when I name my ride.
posted by Morpeth at 6:15 AM on April 12