Who's getting COVID now and from where?

September 10, 2020 8:48 AM

It's easy enough to follow overall infection rates in countries e.g. here. But where are these coming from? At one point a big chunk of Quebec's cases were from nursing homes. Is it mostly superspreader events now (e.g. Sturgis)? Are people catching it from trips on airplanes or not? Is it safe to join the people on outdoor restaurant terrasses? Are public bathrooms still lethal? We're no longer washing our vegetables. It would be good to know what we can more or less safely do now, and what remains dangerous.
posted by musofire to Health & Fitness (12 answers total)

I'd like to know this too, and frustratingly it seems that the answers still aren't completely clear because in many cases of community transmission it's difficult to know exactly where a person caught the virus.

The Canadian government has released an approximate risk chart here (PDF) dividing activities into low, medium, and high risk. Obviously these are not absolute, and I have seen different risk assessments for some activities (nobody can seem to agree on how risky it is to go to the gym).

The highest risk of transmission seems to be from unmasked people spending a long time together indoors while speaking, laughing or shouting. So indoor dining at bars/restaurants, large indoor parties, and indoor religious gatherings are some things that are highest risk. Since you're in Quebec you've probably heard about the occasional outbreaks at bars over the past few months.

Masks reduce the transmission risk a lot, as does being outside. However there has also been recorded transmission at large outdoor events where people are not masked and distanced. I haven't heard of any cases of transmission from outdoor restaurant dining, but that doesn't mean it's no-risk. Surface transmission doesn't seem to be a big concern.
posted by mekily at 9:20 AM on September 10, 2020 [3 favorites]

I can only offer evidence from my state of Massachusetts, which still has the third-highest number of cases per 100,000 people: yes, it's only isolated events where people do dumb things like partying without a mask. Restaurants and stores have been re-opened for a couple of months now, with restrictions in place including (often) getting your personal information, with no reported problems. Most museums have reopened, with no reported problems.

A big plus for this virus is that contrary to the fears in March, it does not seem to spread via surfaces. The buses and subways are running here without people wiping down seats after every use, with no reported problems. I went to a yarn store and handled the yarn; there have been no problems reported there. It really does seem to be isolated cases of large amounts of people getting together (a swim team at BU just reported 11 cases, and I think that's the only big case right now out of the millions of college students here).

Masks and 6 feet. Masks and 6 feet. That seems to do the trick.
posted by Melismata at 9:22 AM on September 10, 2020 [9 favorites]

There's a fairly recent breakdown for BC here on pages 8 and 9.
posted by thebots at 10:02 AM on September 10, 2020 [6 favorites]

People are pushing back on the data re: the Sturgis rally so, frustratingly, it seems that methods that can accurately “track” are still elusive.
posted by amanda at 10:14 AM on September 10, 2020 [2 favorites]

In the Atlantic Provinces, they have mostly been from ‘overseas’ travel. Not sure if US is included in that category or not. No recent community spread.
posted by hydrobatidae at 10:26 AM on September 10, 2020

Maine had 3 deaths and 143 cases because somebody went to a wedding in an isolated town with Covid. Evangelicals/ Covid deniers, few masks, site did not enforce rules. Somebody who works at the York County Jail brought it there from the wedding, where the sheriff did not require masks, though they are required by Covid regulation. Somebody brought it to a Rehab facility. So an infected person + ignoring safety rules can have huge effects, even in areas where you wouldn't expect it.
posted by theora55 at 10:32 AM on September 10, 2020 [5 favorites]

Here in Alberta, we are also mostly seeing cases from private gatherings like parties, family events, etc. Where people are either indoors or sharing food. Cases are highest in the 20 - 40 age group. There are also occasionally outbreaks at meat packing facilities and assisted living/ retirement homes. This is why Alberta is currently not looking at closing businesses - we are simply not seeing significant, if any, spread there.

One thing they are looking at right now is churches. We are still seeing transmission in church gatherings.

My source for this is that I read the news regularly and watch nearly all of our Chief Medical Officer's press conferences.
posted by kitcat at 11:39 AM on September 10, 2020

theora55: Maine had 3 deaths and 143 cases because somebody went to a wedding in an isolated town with Covid.

The total of cases connected with the wedding and the reception (at an inn that didn't enforce indoor gathering limits or masking regulations) is now up to 158.

And I'd be surprised if we didn't see another inn-related outbreak. Apparently their management still doesn't grok that we're in a pandemic. In the comments on a New York Magazine article about the unfolding disaster, madhatnyc, a recent visitor, wrote:

I just stayed at the Big Moose Inn's campground last week. The owners don't seem to have learned their lesson. They were hosting another big group over Labor Day weekend and many of the guests were walking around the check in area without masks or with masks not covering their noses. ...

posted by virago at 12:33 PM on September 10, 2020 [2 favorites]

My Facebook moms group in a suburban LA town says everyone they’ve known who got it is getting it from the gym. For some reason I 1000% believe this.
posted by St. Peepsburg at 1:54 PM on September 10, 2020 [2 favorites]

Oh and a handful from the doctors office.
posted by St. Peepsburg at 1:58 PM on September 10, 2020

The cdc recently published a case-control study looking at people who were tested for covid and the different recent behaviors between people who tested positive and those who tested negative. It seems like the folks who had contacted covid were much more likely to have eaten at a restaurant in person, in this particular study/region.

Link to the report
posted by Lady Li at 6:57 AM on September 11, 2020

@Lady LI -- interesting. Looks like the study did not distinguish between indoor and outdoor dining, which confused me a bit.
posted by shaademaan at 10:04 PM on September 11, 2020