[Reward as positive number] * [Likelihood of reward as a fraction]Then fill in the variables and compare the two results. e.g.
[Risk as a negative number] * [Likelihood of risk as a fraction]
Reward = 10 * 3/5 = 6This isn't going to help in cases in which it's very hard to guess at values, but sometimes there's cases where the upside is very big or very small and the downside is very big or very small, and writing it out like this can help you see just how worthwhile it is to take (or not take) a chance.
Risk = -20 * 1/10 = -2
Here, the reward and risk total is positive. So you stand more to gain than lose, even with the likelihood of the outcomes included.
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Scared of a work presentation or event? Don't think about screwing it up. When it comes up in your mind, picture all the ways it can succeed. Your boss will be impressed with your knowledge. Your coworkers will respect your hard work. You'll get handed more opportunities because of your success. Picture them happening- really play them out as if in a dream.
I was seriously agoraphobic for the better part of a year and was terrified of everything that didn't involve staying at home and sitting on the couch. I pushed myself to do something small every week that made me uncomfortable or scared (going to the corner store, making a phone call), and when the little things don't scare you any longer, move onto bigger things. Keep going.
I'm sad I let myself be that way for so long. The longer you give in to your fears, no matter how minor, the stronger they get.
posted by rachaelfaith at 9:20 AM on March 13 [1 favorite]