Please predict the future of housing!

February 25, 2009 9:52 AM

HousingFilter: Given the incentives to buy a house this year, we're seriously considering buying something in the low $200s this year. Given that we live in Portland, most available properties in that range are townhome/condo/rowhouse style homes. Would anyone care to provide me with a scholarly or trade-related projection how these sorts of homes will be viewed in 15 years?

Maybe it's because I've lived in not-Portland Oregon more than Portland Oregon, so I've seen my share of really, really terrible tract housing. Also, as I've lived longer than 25 years, I actually have seen what goes around comes around and my fair share of fads. (Neon, anyone? It will come back.) Are these sorts of things likely to be seen as a by-product of the insane housing bubble of the Naughts or a unique aspect of Portland housing?

posted by fiercekitten to home & garden (9 comments total)

i know a few structural engineers that work on townhomes in seattle and they have some horror stories about the construction quality! if buying a new townhome, do some research on the builder and look at their other work (older than 5/10 years if possible) to see what sort of shape it is in.

not sure about the style of townhomes in portland, but the majority in seattle are not designed well & the finish materials are poor. i think in 15 years they will be condemed or torn down. but in many ways portland seems to be a more progressive city than seattle especially when it comes to residential architecture, so maybe its not such an issue?

you might have better luck with established condos or rowhouses, but be careful about new townhouse construction.
posted by dityfleur at 10:05 AM on February 25

You should be able to find small homes in neighborhoods like Mount Tabor (SE PDX) in the mid 200s. Sellwood/Brooklyn is probably a little more than that by now, but I'd look there too. You might also consider living just over Johnston Creek in Milwaukie (south of Eastmoreland and Sellwood.) There are lots of other similar small neighborhoods worth checking out.

Try searching RMLS for detached homes between 190k and 300k in Clackamas and Multnomah counties. You may be surprised.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:26 AM on February 25

Don't forget about Washington County! I just bought a 1300sf house on a .25 acre lot in a neighborhood of houses built in 1960 about 6 months ago for $245K, so they're probably selling for less now. I live less than 8 miles from downtown Portland.
posted by rabbitrabbit at 10:32 AM on February 25

I dont think anyone can predict the housing market right now. We're in a unique situation. I know youre asking for 15 years but I would be more concerned about values in 15 months. If things get worse then that 250k place you buy today might only be worth 150k next year. That's a big risk.
posted by damn dirty ape at 12:20 PM on February 25

As the job market dries up and new home construction slows to a crawl, people will want to live closer to large urban centers (less money on gas, more opportunities for work, etc.) The increase in foreclosures bodes well for multi-units because it means you won't have as difficult a time finding tenants. I would say that--provided you can afford it--big-city real estate is probably the best property to purchase, regardless of the crappiness of the buildings themselves. Of course, you'll naturally want to find as non-crappy a place as possible, just to keep your maintenance costs down.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 1:52 PM on February 25

Second Washington County. I just bought my 2200sf house for $220k. There's a cute 2bdrm house on a big lot down the street from us going for $225.
posted by miss meg at 8:45 PM on February 25

Consider Foster Powell (FoPo) neighborhood - check the 97206 zip code on RMLS.com. I bought there last summer (having slight buyers remorse now in light of recent tax credit events, but I freaking love my house so, eh...whatever) and dig it a lot. Can't verify what's on RMLS at the moment because it's down, but just from my walks around I've seen quite a few detached single family homes, many with great character, in this neighborhood lately.
posted by medeine at 11:18 PM on February 25

I'd be careful about Foster/Powell, actually. AKA "Felony Flats." I used to live there (54th & Powell, down the street from Franklin high.) If you do buy in that area, the further west and south you can get, the better. Ideally, west of 52nd and as close to SE Woodstock as possible (unless things have changed radically in a few years.)

Not to bring you down, medeine. But I did have a meth house burn down around the corner from me while living there, among other sketchiness. I don't see it as one of the Portland neighborhoods with a lot of investment potential.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:34 AM on February 26

unless things have changed radically in a few years
which, upon a little checking, may be the case:
The Taming of Felony Flats
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:00 AM on February 26