How can I make a good proposal for Instant Run-off voting? And would Bush have won in 1992 under IRO?

August 2, 2004 9:50 AM

I have a meeting upcoming with some of my legislators, on various levels, and I want to be able to make a good 5-minute proposal for Instant Run-off voting. Not that I expect to outright win them over, but hopefully hit a few points up front to make them sit up and pay attention, and maybe plant a few "hmmm" thoughts.

As a more specific sub-question on the same topic, I'd like to make the argument that, since 2004 is too soon for any change, and we cannot tell the future, it would be a non-partisan change. I think it's agreed that Gore would have won in 2000 under Instant Run-off voting. Am I correct in my belief that under IRO, Bush would have won re-election in 1992?

implicit in the first question, is, of course, a "can anyone help?"

posted by John Kenneth Fisher to Law & Government (2 answers total)

Here's an analysis suggesting that, in the 1992 election, Clinton had Ross Perot to thank for 40 of his electoral votes. But that's far short of the 100 votes by which Clinton eclipsed the required 270. Unfortunately, exit polls from 1992 don't seem to ask the critical question of who the voter would have chosen had Perot not been in the race. Absent that question, you're left to speculate how many Bush voters in 1988 would have stayed with Bush anyway in 1992 had it not been for Perot, and other such "loose" data points.

The 2000 VNS exit poll (note: given the unpleasantness surrounding that election, VNS data is to be viewed critically) asks the question of who the voter would have chosen in a two-way race. If you reverse-crosstab the poll, you find that 46% of Nader voters would have voted for Gore, 24% would have voted for Bush, and 30% would have not voted. Those are national numbers. CNN.com can split exit poll results for you by state.
posted by PrinceValium at 2:17 PM on August 2, 2004

Response by poster: interesting, thanks.
posted by John Kenneth Fisher at 5:31 PM on August 2, 2004