What happened to change NC politics?
August 15, 2024 6:17 AM Subscribe
I lived in North Carolina from 2000 to 2009. When I was there, the politics seemed moderate, and more progressive than other Southern states. But the state became more conservative some time after I left. What factored into that pivot?
The state went for Obama in '08, Romney in '12, and Trump since then, but the share of the vote going for the Democratic candidate has been consistently higher than it used to be. In 2000 and 2004 it was 56-43 for Bush; in 2020 Trump won by just over 1%. At the Presidential level, at least, NC went from a reliable GOP vote to a fierce consistent battleground state. In many areas of the US, the GOP has been getting more reactionary and extremist, but this is not exactly the same as the whole state getting more conservative in a straightforward way.
Basically, as an observer of politics at the national level, NC seems to me to be trending less conservative over the last few decades, driven heavily though not exclusively by growth in the Research Triangle; at the same time the GOP nationwide has become dominated by more reactionary, extreme factions.
Gerrymandering has also played a huge role here. Republicans - again, increasingly reactionary and conservative ones - have applied some of the most biased maps in the country to skew the state house & senate and US House seats way to the GOP relative to voter preferences. So you have a state dominated by GOP forces at the state level with huge majorities, even though it's a very "purple" state that 'should' be very evenly split, as illustrated by the consistently close Presidential elections and continued failures of the GOP to sieze the Governorship. (I should note that the NC Governor is a good bit less powerful than most, which might explain why the state GOP has chosen to put effort into extending its control of the legislature instead.)
However, none of this necessarily answers your question. I'm looking at numbers and maps, and national trends that as far as I know apply in NC as much as other battleground states, not narrower local trends and culture. To be really blunt, what I've seen in my own state of PA and elsewhere is what hydra77 calls out - the election of Obama pushed a lot of folks to just freak out about the shocking sight of a Black man in the White House, which led to the rise of Birtherism and then its champion, Donald Trump. There are - and still are - enormous numbers of non-racist conservatives. But saying "Yeah, there's still a ton of anti-Black racism in former Confederate states and they freaked out at Obama" is the Occam's Razor explanation for a ton of post-2008 shifts in the makeup and attitude of the GOP.
posted by Tomorrowful at 7:30 AM on August 15 [8 favorites]
Basically, as an observer of politics at the national level, NC seems to me to be trending less conservative over the last few decades, driven heavily though not exclusively by growth in the Research Triangle; at the same time the GOP nationwide has become dominated by more reactionary, extreme factions.
Gerrymandering has also played a huge role here. Republicans - again, increasingly reactionary and conservative ones - have applied some of the most biased maps in the country to skew the state house & senate and US House seats way to the GOP relative to voter preferences. So you have a state dominated by GOP forces at the state level with huge majorities, even though it's a very "purple" state that 'should' be very evenly split, as illustrated by the consistently close Presidential elections and continued failures of the GOP to sieze the Governorship. (I should note that the NC Governor is a good bit less powerful than most, which might explain why the state GOP has chosen to put effort into extending its control of the legislature instead.)
However, none of this necessarily answers your question. I'm looking at numbers and maps, and national trends that as far as I know apply in NC as much as other battleground states, not narrower local trends and culture. To be really blunt, what I've seen in my own state of PA and elsewhere is what hydra77 calls out - the election of Obama pushed a lot of folks to just freak out about the shocking sight of a Black man in the White House, which led to the rise of Birtherism and then its champion, Donald Trump. There are - and still are - enormous numbers of non-racist conservatives. But saying "Yeah, there's still a ton of anti-Black racism in former Confederate states and they freaked out at Obama" is the Occam's Razor explanation for a ton of post-2008 shifts in the makeup and attitude of the GOP.
posted by Tomorrowful at 7:30 AM on August 15 [8 favorites]
Best answer: The reason you noticed it happening specifically after 2009 was the redistricting of 2010, which skewed the state legislature and US House seats drastically toward Republicans.
posted by Daily Alice at 7:42 AM on August 15 [24 favorites]
posted by Daily Alice at 7:42 AM on August 15 [24 favorites]
I feel that the election of Barack Obama triggered a lot of racists (overt and "closeted") to go full tilt anti-progressive
I also have no data on this, but the Obama era was around the time that the internet became a full-fledged, algorithm-powered breeding ground for anti-progressive stuff in a way that left niche corners like 4-chan and permeated the mainstream. A lot of the backlash to Obama (and to subsequent progressive ideas like 'wokeness' or 'critical race theory') seems carefully nurtured and marketed, not just organic.
posted by trig at 7:59 AM on August 15 [8 favorites]
I also have no data on this, but the Obama era was around the time that the internet became a full-fledged, algorithm-powered breeding ground for anti-progressive stuff in a way that left niche corners like 4-chan and permeated the mainstream. A lot of the backlash to Obama (and to subsequent progressive ideas like 'wokeness' or 'critical race theory') seems carefully nurtured and marketed, not just organic.
posted by trig at 7:59 AM on August 15 [8 favorites]
My experience of NC was in the 70s and 80s. Remember Jesse Helms?
The far-right has always been there, the rest of the state has improved markedly over the last few decades.
Basically, as an observer of politics at the national level, NC seems to me to be trending less conservative over the last few decades, driven heavily though not exclusively by growth in the Research Triangle; at the same time the GOP nationwide has become dominated by more reactionary, extreme factions.
Agree with this take, too.
posted by gimonca at 8:01 AM on August 15 [2 favorites]
The far-right has always been there, the rest of the state has improved markedly over the last few decades.
Basically, as an observer of politics at the national level, NC seems to me to be trending less conservative over the last few decades, driven heavily though not exclusively by growth in the Research Triangle; at the same time the GOP nationwide has become dominated by more reactionary, extreme factions.
Agree with this take, too.
posted by gimonca at 8:01 AM on August 15 [2 favorites]
I currently live in VA but have been back and forth to NC (mostly Research Triangle, Wilson, and more recently Fayetteville) a lot over the years. There was a point in the early 2000s where it felt—maybe not for especially definable reasons, but a gut feeling—that NC was becoming less socially conservative faster than VA was.
But then the incredibly gerrymandered redistricting happened in 2010, and to me that's in retrospect when VA seemed to keep moving "purple" while NC seemed to lag.
N.B. this situation has not improved:
> Proportionality is one measure of how fair a map is. In a proportional map, if 50% of North Carolinians voted for Republicans to represent them in Congress and 50% voted for Democrats, the map’s number of leaning Republican or Democratic seats should be about even. This would likely result in a 7-7 or 8-6 split among North Carolina’s Congressional delegation. The enacted 2024 map received a 0 out of 100 for proportionality, meaning it is incredibly disproportionate and will greatly favor Republicans. Therefore with the implementation of this map, a majority of North Carolinians could vote for Democrats to represent them in the US Congress, however, because of how the districts are drawn, a majority of Republicans could still get elected.
So I think that's a large part of the explanation for the present conservative lean there. It's not representative of the population by design.
I've never been clear on exactly why the Republicans were more successful at gerrymandering North Carolina than Virginia, though. In many ways the states' politics and blue-urban/red-rural dividing lines on issues are very similar.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:29 AM on August 15 [3 favorites]
But then the incredibly gerrymandered redistricting happened in 2010, and to me that's in retrospect when VA seemed to keep moving "purple" while NC seemed to lag.
N.B. this situation has not improved:
> Proportionality is one measure of how fair a map is. In a proportional map, if 50% of North Carolinians voted for Republicans to represent them in Congress and 50% voted for Democrats, the map’s number of leaning Republican or Democratic seats should be about even. This would likely result in a 7-7 or 8-6 split among North Carolina’s Congressional delegation. The enacted 2024 map received a 0 out of 100 for proportionality, meaning it is incredibly disproportionate and will greatly favor Republicans. Therefore with the implementation of this map, a majority of North Carolinians could vote for Democrats to represent them in the US Congress, however, because of how the districts are drawn, a majority of Republicans could still get elected.
So I think that's a large part of the explanation for the present conservative lean there. It's not representative of the population by design.
I've never been clear on exactly why the Republicans were more successful at gerrymandering North Carolina than Virginia, though. In many ways the states' politics and blue-urban/red-rural dividing lines on issues are very similar.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:29 AM on August 15 [3 favorites]
As a sociologist and a geographer and someone who has lived in North Carolina for 2 1/2 of my 47 1/2 years, I have a lot to say on this subject and don’t have time right this second but will loop back here this evening. But, just one thing to think about: we are the state that elected both Roy Cooper governor and Mark Robinson Lieutenant governor in the same election four years ago. It’s complicated.
posted by joycehealy at 10:30 AM on August 15 [4 favorites]
posted by joycehealy at 10:30 AM on August 15 [4 favorites]
This doesn't explain pre-2020, but there's been a huge increase in retirees moving there since the pandemic.
posted by brook horse at 11:09 AM on August 15
posted by brook horse at 11:09 AM on August 15
I lived in western NC from 2000 - 2018. The one word you are looking for is gerrymandering. The redistricting of 2010 took what was indeed one of the most progressive states in the south and splintered it into a disastrous mess that is designed to keep NC red well into the future. Redistricting since then has only made it worse. But the NC legislature continues to refuse to change it.
I was in a different district than my best friend three blocks away. They put a district line through the center of Warren Wilson College (a notably progressive school.) The list goes on and on. And that is among the many reasons my entire family now calls Oregon home.
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:23 PM on August 15 [1 favorite]
I was in a different district than my best friend three blocks away. They put a district line through the center of Warren Wilson College (a notably progressive school.) The list goes on and on. And that is among the many reasons my entire family now calls Oregon home.
posted by mygothlaundry at 2:23 PM on August 15 [1 favorite]
But, just one thing to think about: we are the state that elected both Roy Cooper governor and Mark Robinson Lieutenant governor in the same election four years ago. It’s complicated.
I’m dying to hear your take on all of this! It’s wild that both of them were elected at the same time.
posted by SaneCatLady at 2:56 PM on August 15 [1 favorite]
I’m dying to hear your take on all of this! It’s wild that both of them were elected at the same time.
posted by SaneCatLady at 2:56 PM on August 15 [1 favorite]
Best answer: I’m dying to hear your take on all of this! It’s wild that both of them were elected at the same time.
I grew up in NC, and recently moved back after living in Washington state for a couple of decades. It's a purple state, and there's a lot of voters unaffiliated to party. I think this plays out in swings and in some degree of hedging. Vote Dem for one office, and then Rep for another office as a "check" to the system.
State Atty Gen. Roy Cooper was voted in as Governor in 2016, running against Pat McCrory who was rightly punished for pushing the culture war "bathroom bill" through a newly gerrymandered state legislature. It was still a very close race (5000 vote difference!). Cooper was running as incumbent in 2020. I wasn't here at the time, but he's very much a centrist. Previous Lt. governor rolled out of office in 2020 due to term limits (to run against Cooper for governor), so there was no incumbent. Robinson didn't have nearly as much inflammatory speech on the record at the time (this was his first attempt at an elected office) and a lot of conservative name recognition amongst gun rights advocates, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was voted in as a "check." Holley, his opponent was a state rep from Raleigh, likely missing statewide name recognition.
The longer story on NC is the sordid gerrymandering back-and-forth that continues to this day. The last scandal that broke around this was the finding in 2018 (Covington) that the legislature had used racial criteria rather than just regional political divisions to draw the maps, and a redraw was mandated. The bombshell in the middle of that case was that the map drawer died, and one of his estranged children turned over estate documents showing clear concealment of race factors in communication with relevant leaders in the state legislature. They did do a redraw, but it has continued to wander through the courts - I don't think it's settled even today.
posted by SoundInhabitant at 10:27 AM on August 16 [3 favorites]
I grew up in NC, and recently moved back after living in Washington state for a couple of decades. It's a purple state, and there's a lot of voters unaffiliated to party. I think this plays out in swings and in some degree of hedging. Vote Dem for one office, and then Rep for another office as a "check" to the system.
State Atty Gen. Roy Cooper was voted in as Governor in 2016, running against Pat McCrory who was rightly punished for pushing the culture war "bathroom bill" through a newly gerrymandered state legislature. It was still a very close race (5000 vote difference!). Cooper was running as incumbent in 2020. I wasn't here at the time, but he's very much a centrist. Previous Lt. governor rolled out of office in 2020 due to term limits (to run against Cooper for governor), so there was no incumbent. Robinson didn't have nearly as much inflammatory speech on the record at the time (this was his first attempt at an elected office) and a lot of conservative name recognition amongst gun rights advocates, so I wouldn't be surprised if he was voted in as a "check." Holley, his opponent was a state rep from Raleigh, likely missing statewide name recognition.
The longer story on NC is the sordid gerrymandering back-and-forth that continues to this day. The last scandal that broke around this was the finding in 2018 (Covington) that the legislature had used racial criteria rather than just regional political divisions to draw the maps, and a redraw was mandated. The bombshell in the middle of that case was that the map drawer died, and one of his estranged children turned over estate documents showing clear concealment of race factors in communication with relevant leaders in the state legislature. They did do a redraw, but it has continued to wander through the courts - I don't think it's settled even today.
posted by SoundInhabitant at 10:27 AM on August 16 [3 favorites]
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posted by hydra77 at 7:01 AM on August 15 [9 favorites]