What are my chances of contracting Covid in this specifc situation?
April 19, 2023 1:09 PM Subscribe
I was going to stay with a freind overnight on my way to a conference, breeak up the driving. Then I think I remember her saying her brother, who lives with her, is not vaccinated.
What are the odds? I'm assuming she has two bedrooms and will put me on a couch.
I dont know if he is sociable or will sulk in his room all night
I am fully vaccinated + 3 boosters but it seems, or it did seem, that the vaccination were keeping people from getting deathly ill but not from catching it.
I can always wear a mask all evening. I'm not afraid of offending him since he isn't worried about infecting me.
So, what are my odds? If such a thing could be figured? I saw a chart someone put up here but it's out dated.
Presuming 1000 square foot or less.
What are the odds? I'm assuming she has two bedrooms and will put me on a couch.
I dont know if he is sociable or will sulk in his room all night
I am fully vaccinated + 3 boosters but it seems, or it did seem, that the vaccination were keeping people from getting deathly ill but not from catching it.
I can always wear a mask all evening. I'm not afraid of offending him since he isn't worried about infecting me.
So, what are my odds? If such a thing could be figured? I saw a chart someone put up here but it's out dated.
Presuming 1000 square foot or less.
I don’t know the vaccination status of anyone I interact with these days. I realize this is not the risk level of some people on this site but the only thing I can control is my vaccination status and that of my young children and we are all as up to date as we can be.
I would not stay there if brother was sick (with covid or otherwise), but that would be the case even if brother was vaccinated. Is the brother showing any symptoms at all?
And to find out odds you’d have to have a pretty granular knowledge of local spread, brother’s previous infections, his exposure chances, etc. If he’s unvaccinated there’s a higher chance he’s engaging in behavior YOU find unsafe, for sure, but that’s not a scientific measure of “odds”.
posted by lydhre at 1:19 PM on April 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
I would not stay there if brother was sick (with covid or otherwise), but that would be the case even if brother was vaccinated. Is the brother showing any symptoms at all?
And to find out odds you’d have to have a pretty granular knowledge of local spread, brother’s previous infections, his exposure chances, etc. If he’s unvaccinated there’s a higher chance he’s engaging in behavior YOU find unsafe, for sure, but that’s not a scientific measure of “odds”.
posted by lydhre at 1:19 PM on April 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
Response by poster: I should add that I havn't been keeping up on the variants and so on since I got vaccinated. I wear a mask anytime I am indoors for more than a few minutes. Sp, I don't know at what state we are in WRT the virus and how vicious it is.
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 1:19 PM on April 19, 2023
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 1:19 PM on April 19, 2023
If you're planning to mask indoors I don't think his vaccination status matters at this point. He either is contagious or not, and that can happen with or without the vaccine.
posted by kingdead at 1:30 PM on April 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by kingdead at 1:30 PM on April 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
"I wear a mask anytime I am indoors for more than a few minutes."
That is an impressive level of caution, and I'm kind of surprised you're willing to attend a conference with that in mind.
There's no good way to evaluate the odds, but I would wager you're far more likely to contract COVID at the conference (even if masking) than you will be likely to contract COVID staying overnight with an unvaccinated person in the same small apartment.
I don't think his vaccination status plays heavily into whether he might be positive with COVID during your stay, though I seem to recall a correlation between severity and viral load - so maybe an unvaccinated person would be slightly more contagious than a vaccinated person due to viral load? But I don't think it's really knowable at this point.
At a conference you will definitely encounter unvaccinated people or people who only have one vaccination, etc. and people who are positive. (Unless you're attending a "fans of vaccination" conference, maybe...)
posted by jzb at 1:52 PM on April 19, 2023 [20 favorites]
That is an impressive level of caution, and I'm kind of surprised you're willing to attend a conference with that in mind.
There's no good way to evaluate the odds, but I would wager you're far more likely to contract COVID at the conference (even if masking) than you will be likely to contract COVID staying overnight with an unvaccinated person in the same small apartment.
I don't think his vaccination status plays heavily into whether he might be positive with COVID during your stay, though I seem to recall a correlation between severity and viral load - so maybe an unvaccinated person would be slightly more contagious than a vaccinated person due to viral load? But I don't think it's really knowable at this point.
At a conference you will definitely encounter unvaccinated people or people who only have one vaccination, etc. and people who are positive. (Unless you're attending a "fans of vaccination" conference, maybe...)
posted by jzb at 1:52 PM on April 19, 2023 [20 favorites]
I don’t think the vaccine makes a meaningful difference in transmission risks anymore. I would not worry about the risk to you any more than if he were vaccinated.
posted by vanitas at 1:57 PM on April 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by vanitas at 1:57 PM on April 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
Also came to say "microcovid project."
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:15 PM on April 19, 2023
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:15 PM on April 19, 2023
Response by poster: jzb...It definitely crossed my mind! I should have added that I will be going outside every fifteen minutes, as well as social distancing. I am really impressed with the care that the conference is taking to make accommodations and to be sure everyone feels safe and comfortable. I would not bother otherwise.. Also this is a fun conference, not for work or credit, so I can do whatever I want. I want to walk a fine line between being careful/being in cloister forever/being reckless.
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 2:36 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 2:36 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
It sounds like you and I are at similar levels of current caution re: masking, and I would personally feel more comfortable with the overnight in the apartment with an unvaccinated person, than with the conference. That's speaking generally - I'd take a quick look at the wastewater data for both locations and might feel differently if it's very low where the conference is and very high where the overnight stop is. But all things being equal, this feels to me like a background risk compared to the bigger one you're taking, and I wouldn't sweat it in your shoes. I would consider asking them to take a home test that day (and would of course take one myself), but depending on the reason for being unvaccinated I assume that might be a nonstarter.
If you haven't heard from the conference recently about their safety planning, maybe also double check with them before setting out. A dear friend recently showed up at a conference that had advertised its great safe masking and distancing policies, only to be informed at the door that they'd decided that was no longer necessary but hadn't bothered to inform anyone because it was so obvious to them that no one cares about covid anymore, so she had travelled all that way and exposed herself to additional risk for nothing, and had to turn around and head back home. I'd hate for that to happen to you!
posted by Stacey at 2:50 PM on April 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you haven't heard from the conference recently about their safety planning, maybe also double check with them before setting out. A dear friend recently showed up at a conference that had advertised its great safe masking and distancing policies, only to be informed at the door that they'd decided that was no longer necessary but hadn't bothered to inform anyone because it was so obvious to them that no one cares about covid anymore, so she had travelled all that way and exposed herself to additional risk for nothing, and had to turn around and head back home. I'd hate for that to happen to you!
posted by Stacey at 2:50 PM on April 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
I would imagine the risk of the conference would be much greater than staying overnight with this friend and her brother.
What's the weather where you are? If it's warm enough to keep windows open at night, that will notably lower the risk.
posted by coffeecat at 2:56 PM on April 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
What's the weather where you are? If it's warm enough to keep windows open at night, that will notably lower the risk.
posted by coffeecat at 2:56 PM on April 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I am fully vaccinated + 3 boosters but it seems, or it did seem, that the vaccination were keeping people from getting deathly ill but not from catching it.
This is largely the case. The thing is, the brother can't give you COVID unless he has COVID, and as you know, whether or not someone catches it has little to do with their vaccination status (anymore).
Ironically, if he's unvaccinated any case he does get is more likely to make him noticeably sick, which his sister would clock and warn you about, whereas a lot of vaccinated cases are symptomless or very close to it. You're just about as likely to catch it from your vaccinated friend, I'd think. (Or as others have noticed, from the hundreds of total unknowns at the conference.)
Now yes, prolonged exposure ups the odds more than brief. But that just means your friend AND her brother should test before you arrive, because either or both of them could equally have it.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 3:02 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is largely the case. The thing is, the brother can't give you COVID unless he has COVID, and as you know, whether or not someone catches it has little to do with their vaccination status (anymore).
Ironically, if he's unvaccinated any case he does get is more likely to make him noticeably sick, which his sister would clock and warn you about, whereas a lot of vaccinated cases are symptomless or very close to it. You're just about as likely to catch it from your vaccinated friend, I'd think. (Or as others have noticed, from the hundreds of total unknowns at the conference.)
Now yes, prolonged exposure ups the odds more than brief. But that just means your friend AND her brother should test before you arrive, because either or both of them could equally have it.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 3:02 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: I have a friend who took her whole family to Disneyland, on a plane, in 2021, and she's a nurse.
I guess it's all in the comfort level. If someone gets too close to me (masked or not) I move back. Some are particularily clueless. Then I rinse & repeat. They can be how they want. I didn't like my personal space being invaded BEFDOR the pandemic. I like it less now.I do my own comfort level.
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 5:13 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I guess it's all in the comfort level. If someone gets too close to me (masked or not) I move back. Some are particularily clueless. Then I rinse & repeat. They can be how they want. I didn't like my personal space being invaded BEFDOR the pandemic. I like it less now.I do my own comfort level.
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 5:13 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
If you get covid on this trip I would assume the exposure was at the conference unless the brother seems actively very ill while you're there.
posted by potrzebie at 5:46 PM on April 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by potrzebie at 5:46 PM on April 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
It’s far from perfect, but maybe the people you’re staying with would be willing to take a rapid test right before you get there?
posted by rivenwanderer at 6:44 PM on April 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by rivenwanderer at 6:44 PM on April 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Here's my anecdote: I am fully vaccinated +1, am a public schoolteacher around thousands of kids a day, and have traveled a lot. I got the flu a few months ago but not COVID; I did get that once this summer during travel but that's another story. I never wear a mask anymore (other than when I was recovering from the flu and/or in a special situation where someone requests.) I'm doing OK but know it's always a risk, albeit one I'm willing to take. I stayed with a friend who has an unvaxxed family member and did not get sick nor did they. Like others have said, I don't even ask anymore.
BUT...
If this is important to you, you do what feels best. As others have also said, the risk of getting sick is much greater at the conference than from the overnight. Personally, unless the person visiting was high-risk or someone close to them was, I'd be annoyed as hell if asked to test before hosting them for free at my home.
Likewise, you write: "I can always wear a mask all evening. I'm not afraid of offending him since he isn't worried about infecting me." This is a loaded statement. Of course we should wear a mask whenever we want but we also shouldn't assume that he is going to criticize you for wearing one or actively hopes that you get COVID. I, too, hope everyone is vaccinated but I don't think they're evil if they don't. If you are concerned, which is very valid, then stay in a motel or hotel; it's best not to impose upon people we actively disapprove of as both you and they deserve better.
posted by smorgasbord at 7:52 PM on April 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
BUT...
If this is important to you, you do what feels best. As others have also said, the risk of getting sick is much greater at the conference than from the overnight. Personally, unless the person visiting was high-risk or someone close to them was, I'd be annoyed as hell if asked to test before hosting them for free at my home.
Likewise, you write: "I can always wear a mask all evening. I'm not afraid of offending him since he isn't worried about infecting me." This is a loaded statement. Of course we should wear a mask whenever we want but we also shouldn't assume that he is going to criticize you for wearing one or actively hopes that you get COVID. I, too, hope everyone is vaccinated but I don't think they're evil if they don't. If you are concerned, which is very valid, then stay in a motel or hotel; it's best not to impose upon people we actively disapprove of as both you and they deserve better.
posted by smorgasbord at 7:52 PM on April 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
I'm not sure this is knowable. I'm not even confident comparing the conference risk to the overnight -- the former has many exposures, so a high probability that someone is ill, but all brief and potentially masked in a room with high ceilings; whereas the contacts when visiting will be longer-duration in closer quarters, and for some of that time you really won't be able to mask, but the chance that one of your hosts is positive is pretty low. I think any one encounter is fairly low probability, and yet most of us will roll snake eyes eventually.
I want to live in the world where it isn't fraught to ask people to test, so when I'm brave enough, I try to build that world. But someone not vaccinated indeed might not receive this well. Can you feel out your friend safely to see whether this would be a nonstarter with her brother?
As a side note, breaking up the driving has some (positive) safety implications. I haven't personally visited anyone overnight since all this started, but I'd probably do that rather than risk a collision from fatigue or inattention, even without a test. I'd just have a plan for what to do if I got sick, especially while still away from home.
posted by eirias at 8:09 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I want to live in the world where it isn't fraught to ask people to test, so when I'm brave enough, I try to build that world. But someone not vaccinated indeed might not receive this well. Can you feel out your friend safely to see whether this would be a nonstarter with her brother?
As a side note, breaking up the driving has some (positive) safety implications. I haven't personally visited anyone overnight since all this started, but I'd probably do that rather than risk a collision from fatigue or inattention, even without a test. I'd just have a plan for what to do if I got sick, especially while still away from home.
posted by eirias at 8:09 PM on April 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I would wear a mask at the conference and ask everyone to test at the place you’re staying.
posted by shadygrove at 9:13 PM on April 19, 2023
posted by shadygrove at 9:13 PM on April 19, 2023
My thought is that if the brother is unvaccinated, he has probably had COVID at least once and so has some natural immunity that he wouldn't have had in the early days of the vaccinated/unvaccinated conflict. You can ask your host about her brother's COVID experience - how many time has he gotten it (that they know of) and when was the most recent. If you are lucky, he has had COVID in the past few months and thus has a high level of natural immunity which will reduce (although probably not completely eliminate) your risk.
posted by metahawk at 10:03 PM on April 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by metahawk at 10:03 PM on April 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Response by poster: For anyone still following -- my friend was sick so I didn't stop there. I kept masked up and distanced as necessary, and did not contract Covid at the conference (took tests afterwards).
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 6:33 PM on May 11, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Rumi'sLeftSock at 6:33 PM on May 11, 2023 [5 favorites]
So cool of you to follow up and give an update. Glad you didn’t get COVID at the event and things seem to have gone well for you.
posted by jzb at 1:12 PM on May 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by jzb at 1:12 PM on May 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
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posted by blnkfrnk at 1:19 PM on April 19, 2023 [3 favorites]