scared about (my senior parents / me ) flying right now (usa edition)
September 22, 2021 3:00 PM Subscribe
Is it genuinely safe to fly right now? Even vaccinated? More anxiety inside.
My parents live in the northeast. I live alone in Austin. I have not seen them since 2019. Like probably a lot of people, this is the longest amount of time we haven't seen each other. I am 50+ and my parents are in their mid-late 70's. Dad is in good shape for his age, mom is eh, but neither have any systemic illnesses.
I have multiple autoimmune diseases that are being treated and under control, but am not technically considered 'immunocompromised' by the CDC's guide. However, in the last year, some of my doctors have begun to think I am on the verge of having another that may require immune compromising drugs. (I have not not begun taking them yet since I don't have a definite diagnosis).
Everyone in my family is vaccinated. Additionally, we will have had boosters by the proposed travel date in a few weeks. I almost always only see the same vaccinated 3 or 4 people every day at work. Everyone else there, who are not in proximity, I see only briefly; I am always masked when near anyone. Outside of work I am currently staying home and doing zero in-person socialization.
My parents sometimes see friends who they presume have all been vaccinated but I don't know that they make a habit of asking if they see somebody they haven't met. I suspect they are hanging out with these people for hours at a time.
After they visit me they plan to continue on to visit more family in California, who have an unvaccinated child, but the child's parents are vaccinated.
Even with them wearing masks and all of us vaccinated, I am super worried that they could get sick. I know there's no guarantees in life and they could die any time like the rest of us, but I'm pretty sure most of you would agree that choosing long-haul Covid/death is not preferable to a lot of other things.
I could alternatively try to convince them I will go see them soon, and see what they say to that. I had been hoping that delta would finally trend downward a bunch in the next month... I feel bad that I balked in the pre-delta window of opportunity back in.. april? may?. I considered driving up there, but I don't have the stamina to drive alone 3 or 4 days in each direction by myself.
I realize there's no guarantee how long delta may take to get to a safer level of cases, either, but seems like waiting another month or so would be better than them traveling here to the Land-of-Still-Bonkers-Stage-5.
I've read a lot of stuff about this so it's not like I have zero clue. (I'm actually more concerned about all the time they'll have to spend in airports, vs. the airplane). I am super pro-science. But right now I can't tell if I'm being extra paranoid or not, given the generally protective steps we take. It is really upsetting me.
Thanks once again MeFiters. : )
My parents live in the northeast. I live alone in Austin. I have not seen them since 2019. Like probably a lot of people, this is the longest amount of time we haven't seen each other. I am 50+ and my parents are in their mid-late 70's. Dad is in good shape for his age, mom is eh, but neither have any systemic illnesses.
I have multiple autoimmune diseases that are being treated and under control, but am not technically considered 'immunocompromised' by the CDC's guide. However, in the last year, some of my doctors have begun to think I am on the verge of having another that may require immune compromising drugs. (I have not not begun taking them yet since I don't have a definite diagnosis).
Everyone in my family is vaccinated. Additionally, we will have had boosters by the proposed travel date in a few weeks. I almost always only see the same vaccinated 3 or 4 people every day at work. Everyone else there, who are not in proximity, I see only briefly; I am always masked when near anyone. Outside of work I am currently staying home and doing zero in-person socialization.
My parents sometimes see friends who they presume have all been vaccinated but I don't know that they make a habit of asking if they see somebody they haven't met. I suspect they are hanging out with these people for hours at a time.
After they visit me they plan to continue on to visit more family in California, who have an unvaccinated child, but the child's parents are vaccinated.
Even with them wearing masks and all of us vaccinated, I am super worried that they could get sick. I know there's no guarantees in life and they could die any time like the rest of us, but I'm pretty sure most of you would agree that choosing long-haul Covid/death is not preferable to a lot of other things.
I could alternatively try to convince them I will go see them soon, and see what they say to that. I had been hoping that delta would finally trend downward a bunch in the next month... I feel bad that I balked in the pre-delta window of opportunity back in.. april? may?. I considered driving up there, but I don't have the stamina to drive alone 3 or 4 days in each direction by myself.
I realize there's no guarantee how long delta may take to get to a safer level of cases, either, but seems like waiting another month or so would be better than them traveling here to the Land-of-Still-Bonkers-Stage-5.
I've read a lot of stuff about this so it's not like I have zero clue. (I'm actually more concerned about all the time they'll have to spend in airports, vs. the airplane). I am super pro-science. But right now I can't tell if I'm being extra paranoid or not, given the generally protective steps we take. It is really upsetting me.
Thanks once again MeFiters. : )
"[A]mong adults aged ≥75 years, effectiveness of full vaccination for preventing hospitalization was 91% for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% for Moderna, and 85% for Janssen COVID-19 vaccines." - source
For a typical vaccinated person, COVID-19 is now lower risk for them than other sources of risk that we generally ignore, such as driving. It is important to remember the world is fundamentally not safe - it never has been, and never will be. There have always been dangers that are present. Right now, for significant distances, it's objectively safer for most people to take the COVID-19 risk from other people while flying to a destination than road collision risk while driving to a destination.
You should not ignore the emotional needs of your parents to see their kids. Human emotion is a thing, and loneliness is particularly harmful for elderly people.
posted by saeculorum at 3:09 PM on September 22, 2021 [27 favorites]
For a typical vaccinated person, COVID-19 is now lower risk for them than other sources of risk that we generally ignore, such as driving. It is important to remember the world is fundamentally not safe - it never has been, and never will be. There have always been dangers that are present. Right now, for significant distances, it's objectively safer for most people to take the COVID-19 risk from other people while flying to a destination than road collision risk while driving to a destination.
You should not ignore the emotional needs of your parents to see their kids. Human emotion is a thing, and loneliness is particularly harmful for elderly people.
posted by saeculorum at 3:09 PM on September 22, 2021 [27 favorites]
I have flown in this year, and even before the vaccine. (Look, there were circumstances.) I have gone to see senior parents (or gone with them) during the trip. We have gone to red states. We followed all protocols and were not sick. In traveling, we were reassured that, despite the difficulty of social distancing at some points, air travel itself is fairly safe.
I can't tell you what to do. I can only tell you that if they plan to go to California anyway, then they're taking a risk that you might as well share in and allow yourself to enjoy the time and emotional reassurance.
posted by Countess Elena at 3:10 PM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]
I can't tell you what to do. I can only tell you that if they plan to go to California anyway, then they're taking a risk that you might as well share in and allow yourself to enjoy the time and emotional reassurance.
posted by Countess Elena at 3:10 PM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]
I am in my late 50s and vaxxed. I have flown3 roundtrips this summer. I did not feel particularly at risk. My gf's parents, in their 80s have flown here twice in the last 4 months. On a crowded JetBlue flight from Florida to NY. They have been very concerned during the shutdown, have been diligent about masking and socializing outside only. They were pleasantly surprised at 100% mask in the airport and on the flight. I would have them go.
posted by AugustWest at 3:12 PM on September 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by AugustWest at 3:12 PM on September 22, 2021 [2 favorites]
My mother is 85 and wanted to go to Dallas in the summer. She was a bit apprehensive but my brother was OK with it and he's a medical doctor. Ultimately she didn't end up going because she didn't want to deal with the added cost and discomfort of getting Covid tests before and after her flight.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:16 PM on September 22, 2021
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:16 PM on September 22, 2021
Let's put some numbers to this:
Over the last 18 months, there have been 90251 hospitalizations in the COVID-NET network for people >65 (source). That covers roughly 10% of the USA population. Roughly 15.2% of the population is over 65 (source), so the COVID-NET network covers roughly 4.92 million people >65. That puts the chance at being hospitalized over the last 18 months as being roughly 1.23% - or 12.23 hospitalizations per 1000 people. Vaccination reduces that chance significantly - if you use the rough average of vaccination being 90% effective, you would end up at less than 0.1% chance of hospitalization over an 18 month period.
It is a roughly 3459 mile drive from the Northeast to Austin to California. The risk of injury for someone in your parents age group is 86 per 100M miles driven (source). Hence, there is roughly a 0.3% chance your parents will be injured driving during a drive cross-country - during that single drive alone.
This is not a particularly good analysis - for one thing, I am double-counting the impact of vaccination in some cases (in the COVID-NET numbers, after the beginning of 2021, most people >65 will be vaccinated), and for another thing, most people during that time wouldn't have been flying a lot. However, it should give you an idea that for a typical vaccinated person - even elderly - COVID is no longer a threat to them compared to other daily activities we take for granted.
posted by saeculorum at 3:49 PM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]
Over the last 18 months, there have been 90251 hospitalizations in the COVID-NET network for people >65 (source). That covers roughly 10% of the USA population. Roughly 15.2% of the population is over 65 (source), so the COVID-NET network covers roughly 4.92 million people >65. That puts the chance at being hospitalized over the last 18 months as being roughly 1.23% - or 12.23 hospitalizations per 1000 people. Vaccination reduces that chance significantly - if you use the rough average of vaccination being 90% effective, you would end up at less than 0.1% chance of hospitalization over an 18 month period.
It is a roughly 3459 mile drive from the Northeast to Austin to California. The risk of injury for someone in your parents age group is 86 per 100M miles driven (source). Hence, there is roughly a 0.3% chance your parents will be injured driving during a drive cross-country - during that single drive alone.
This is not a particularly good analysis - for one thing, I am double-counting the impact of vaccination in some cases (in the COVID-NET numbers, after the beginning of 2021, most people >65 will be vaccinated), and for another thing, most people during that time wouldn't have been flying a lot. However, it should give you an idea that for a typical vaccinated person - even elderly - COVID is no longer a threat to them compared to other daily activities we take for granted.
posted by saeculorum at 3:49 PM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]
Could you get an antibody test before travel to see how much of a response you’ve generated from being vaccinated?
posted by raccoon409 at 3:53 PM on September 22, 2021
posted by raccoon409 at 3:53 PM on September 22, 2021
Something else to consider, and is why I just rescheduled a trip to San Antonio from next week to be November, is how full are the hospitals?
It's not just COVID risk (which it sounds like you have a pretty good handle of, and getting a lot of good feedback here), but what happens if you have a medical emergency? A heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, staph infection, car accident, etc. all require urgent medical care, and traveling somewhere that hospitals are already overwhelmed can make a "normal" emergency into something much worse.
It sounds like we've peaked, and so any time you can delay will give the hospitals time to recover and be able to handle non-COVID emergencies.
You could look at your local hospitalization rates & capacity to see how full their are, and if they are trending downward, to help with your planning.
posted by jpeacock at 3:57 PM on September 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
It's not just COVID risk (which it sounds like you have a pretty good handle of, and getting a lot of good feedback here), but what happens if you have a medical emergency? A heart attack, stroke, appendicitis, staph infection, car accident, etc. all require urgent medical care, and traveling somewhere that hospitals are already overwhelmed can make a "normal" emergency into something much worse.
It sounds like we've peaked, and so any time you can delay will give the hospitals time to recover and be able to handle non-COVID emergencies.
You could look at your local hospitalization rates & capacity to see how full their are, and if they are trending downward, to help with your planning.
posted by jpeacock at 3:57 PM on September 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
My 65+ parents are vaccinated and have been traveling by plane and train the past few months. They wear their mask and are fine and not particularly fearful. Their line of reasoning is that with the vaccine, they are generally about as safe statistically as pre-pandemic risks of seasonal flu, which hospitalization/death rate did not previously prevent them from living their life and moving about the country as needed, so they don't plan on starting now.
posted by windbox at 3:58 PM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by windbox at 3:58 PM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
It is probably safer (and some may argue more socially responsible) for you to visit your parents in the North East, where there is greater hospital capacity.
If you need a justification to tell your parents not to visit-- remind them that Austin hospitals are full if a medical emergency came up.
I think it might make sense for you personally to have a visit with your parents before you start immune comprising drugs.
posted by oceano at 3:59 PM on September 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
If you need a justification to tell your parents not to visit-- remind them that Austin hospitals are full if a medical emergency came up.
I think it might make sense for you personally to have a visit with your parents before you start immune comprising drugs.
posted by oceano at 3:59 PM on September 22, 2021 [7 favorites]
I know you're worried for your folks; please don't discount the wild cards of your multiple autoimmune diseases + the looming possibility of another that may require immune-compromising drugs in your decision-making, for their safety and yours. (And unfortunately, evaluating local rates of transmission and hospitalization are of limited use; they're never current, because of lags in recording and reporting. But Texas is not doing great in general, as you note.) Have you asked your doctors for advice?
One thing: I feel bad that I balked in the pre-delta window of opportunity back in.. april? may?. Forgive yourself. This is all so uncertain, and if your immune system isn't strong, it's possible your initial vaccination did not provide full effectiveness. If you'd traveled then only to fall ill and/or introduce Covid-19 to your parents, you would feel far worse today.
Possible alternate plan, depending on what your doctors advise: you travel to California (shorter drive/shorter flight than to your parents in the NE, maybe [it's a huge state]; downward trend for infections, maybe, versus Austin; greater hospital capacities/emergency service availability, maybe), meet your parents before their visit with other members of your family, and you return to Austin. This would mean fewer airport stops overall/mingling with additional strangers in Austin for your folks, which is your main concern.
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:24 PM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]
One thing: I feel bad that I balked in the pre-delta window of opportunity back in.. april? may?. Forgive yourself. This is all so uncertain, and if your immune system isn't strong, it's possible your initial vaccination did not provide full effectiveness. If you'd traveled then only to fall ill and/or introduce Covid-19 to your parents, you would feel far worse today.
Possible alternate plan, depending on what your doctors advise: you travel to California (shorter drive/shorter flight than to your parents in the NE, maybe [it's a huge state]; downward trend for infections, maybe, versus Austin; greater hospital capacities/emergency service availability, maybe), meet your parents before their visit with other members of your family, and you return to Austin. This would mean fewer airport stops overall/mingling with additional strangers in Austin for your folks, which is your main concern.
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:24 PM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]
I like Iris's alternate plan, and also might suggest doing further research about traveling by Amtrak and getting your own roomette to CA. It's not fast, and it's probably more expensive than flying, but 1) your own place to hang out/eat/sleep is really helpful mentally, 2) you don't have to deal with hanging out in airports (which I found to be the worst part of flying on my one trip of the past two years) and 3) also don't have to worry about plane delays and cancellations. The trip I took by plane a couple of months ago was supposed to take three hours and it took THIRTY-SIX.
posted by queensissy at 5:46 PM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by queensissy at 5:46 PM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]
As another possibility, you might be able to find someone else making the drive to ride with (either to the NE or to CA). If they're vaccinated and willing to take a Covid test before you start the trip, I think that would be less risky than getting on a plane/spending time at airports. I've made long trips with people from Craigslist rideshare in the past, and it worked out well.
posted by pinochiette at 7:20 PM on September 22, 2021
posted by pinochiette at 7:20 PM on September 22, 2021
This project offers an interesting risk calculator where you can plug in a lot of the variables about the trip. (In the 'about' section you'll find caveats about how much of it is guesswork, but they're being transparent about that.)
posted by Beardman at 7:21 PM on September 22, 2021
posted by Beardman at 7:21 PM on September 22, 2021
Everyone here seems to not have noticed you'll all have had boosters before the visit. Are your parents good about masking indoors? Will they mask reliably in the airport etc? Between masks and 3 shots, I can't see a justification based on how most medical providers think about risk for telling them not to come.
posted by latkes at 4:53 AM on September 23, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by latkes at 4:53 AM on September 23, 2021 [2 favorites]
People have already covered the risks of death/hospitalization, but there are also positive signs that the vaccines reduce the risk of getting long-haul Covid too.
posted by coffeecat at 5:57 AM on September 23, 2021
posted by coffeecat at 5:57 AM on September 23, 2021
This is anecdotal, but perhaps it will be helpful (?):
I have a relative who is 73 and flew from Denver to Seattle in late August, with his wife, who is also 73. During that time, my relative flew back to Denver to attend a funeral, and then flew, again, to Washington state. Upon arrival, they rented a car and traveled around Washington state, visiting relatives. They lodged in their vacation cabin, but did stay in a hotel room for a few nights. Both are vaccinated. They wore N95 masks during the flights. The whole thing made me nervous, but they didn't contract covid. In spite of this, I would have felt more comfortable if they had postponed their trip until next year (I'm hoping things will have calmed down by then ... knock on wood).
posted by SageTrail at 11:55 AM on September 23, 2021
I have a relative who is 73 and flew from Denver to Seattle in late August, with his wife, who is also 73. During that time, my relative flew back to Denver to attend a funeral, and then flew, again, to Washington state. Upon arrival, they rented a car and traveled around Washington state, visiting relatives. They lodged in their vacation cabin, but did stay in a hotel room for a few nights. Both are vaccinated. They wore N95 masks during the flights. The whole thing made me nervous, but they didn't contract covid. In spite of this, I would have felt more comfortable if they had postponed their trip until next year (I'm hoping things will have calmed down by then ... knock on wood).
posted by SageTrail at 11:55 AM on September 23, 2021
Wear a well-fitted N95 or KN95 everywhere in public that is indoors without exception. That reduces your risk much more than pretty much anything else you can do while travelling other than "not go to that particular place".
posted by lalochezia at 6:32 PM on September 23, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by lalochezia at 6:32 PM on September 23, 2021 [1 favorite]
This thread is closed to new comments.
And then I think… try to enjoy the visit? You say it’s not worth dying for one trip, but also… maybe in your late 70s, it is good to try to see your kids and grandkids while you still can? I don’t mean that morbidly. I mean, it’s not clear to me that things are going to better quickly. And the booster seems reassuring.
posted by bluedaisy at 3:08 PM on September 22, 2021 [4 favorites]