Should we visit family members?
June 3, 2021 9:08 AM Subscribe
After a year apart, my wife's brother would like us to come visit this weekend. There are, however, covidy complications...
First off, both my wife and I, as well as her brother and his wife, are fully vaccinated. We are all olds.
However, my BIL's daughter-in-law has begun to exhibit unmistakable/typical COVID symptoms, including the now-classic loss of smell and taste. Complicating this development is that she is a die-hard Trump supporter who refuses to get vaccinated or tested (Her justification for this is "If I have it, I have it" and she doesn't want to "end up in their system".) She's not getting her kids vaccinated, either.
Sometime last week, she took her kids over to my BIL's house for babysitting. She, herself, didn't stay long, but her kids were there all day. Then, of course, she had to return to pick them up.
Even though we are fully vaccinated, my wife and I are having qualms about getting together with her brother and his wife. The daughter-in-law won't be there, but we have no control over whether she drops by sometime in the days proceeding the visit.
One question we keep wrestling with is this: Even though we are vaccinated, are we still able to somehow contract the virus and spread it to anyone else who may not be vaccinated? What is the answer to this question if she has one of the new variants?
I understand that the virus can't linger long outside a host. But, is it at all possible for it to be passed from vaccinated person to anyone else? This is the first time, over this entire year, where we've had to wrestle with this. Are we being too scared? Should we go and visit, or just put it off until we know more about the daughter-in-law's situation.
First off, both my wife and I, as well as her brother and his wife, are fully vaccinated. We are all olds.
However, my BIL's daughter-in-law has begun to exhibit unmistakable/typical COVID symptoms, including the now-classic loss of smell and taste. Complicating this development is that she is a die-hard Trump supporter who refuses to get vaccinated or tested (Her justification for this is "If I have it, I have it" and she doesn't want to "end up in their system".) She's not getting her kids vaccinated, either.
Sometime last week, she took her kids over to my BIL's house for babysitting. She, herself, didn't stay long, but her kids were there all day. Then, of course, she had to return to pick them up.
Even though we are fully vaccinated, my wife and I are having qualms about getting together with her brother and his wife. The daughter-in-law won't be there, but we have no control over whether she drops by sometime in the days proceeding the visit.
One question we keep wrestling with is this: Even though we are vaccinated, are we still able to somehow contract the virus and spread it to anyone else who may not be vaccinated? What is the answer to this question if she has one of the new variants?
I understand that the virus can't linger long outside a host. But, is it at all possible for it to be passed from vaccinated person to anyone else? This is the first time, over this entire year, where we've had to wrestle with this. Are we being too scared? Should we go and visit, or just put it off until we know more about the daughter-in-law's situation.
Based on what we know so far, you would probably be fine visiting. But I don't think it's overly cautious to continue avoiding people who have probably or definitely been exposed, even though they and you are vaccinated, especially with little kids in the mix. I would also be uncomfortable in your shoes. Is delaying the trip for a couple of weeks until daughter-in-law is recovered and BIL/wife are out of the waiting period an option?
posted by superfluousm at 9:15 AM on June 3, 2021 [5 favorites]
posted by superfluousm at 9:15 AM on June 3, 2021 [5 favorites]
Virus mechanics aside, your presence has the effect of making it a special occasion, where the group does more special things.
So by opting out, you can at least prevent them from spreading it further, by not providing them an excuse for more visitors, restaurants, outings, etc. Goodness, even if they just had the flu, you'd be helping by not letting it be spread.
posted by dum spiro spero at 9:16 AM on June 3, 2021 [19 favorites]
So by opting out, you can at least prevent them from spreading it further, by not providing them an excuse for more visitors, restaurants, outings, etc. Goodness, even if they just had the flu, you'd be helping by not letting it be spread.
posted by dum spiro spero at 9:16 AM on June 3, 2021 [19 favorites]
Current guidance as I understand it is that fully vaccinated people who have been exposed to someone who is positive for the coronavirus do not have to quarantine unless they experience symptoms. Those who do experience symptoms do need to quarantine, etc. Implicit in this guidance is the fact that it is possible to contract COVID even if you are vaccinated.
posted by slkinsey at 9:17 AM on June 3, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by slkinsey at 9:17 AM on June 3, 2021 [4 favorites]
Wait - she was there a week ago?
Even though we are vaccinated, are we still able to somehow contract the virus and spread it to anyone else who may not be vaccinated?
No. You're talking about someone who was there over a week ago. So, even if she (and her kids) were sick, for the virus to live, it would have to live INSIDE your BIL, (which is unlikely, 80% effective, but also, a short meeting like that is a low chance of transference). THEN, your BIL would need to be asymptomatic for the WEEK, then spread it to you (First, being asymptomatic would mean less chance of spreading it, and second, it's unlikely to spread to you because you're vaccinated and because spread chance from specific people is a somewhat low probability).
What is the answer to this question if she has one of the new variants?
Nothing in the above changes. The vaccines are very, very effective. Breakthrough rates are incredibly low.
Visit your brother! You are all vaccinated! Even if your SIL was THERE - it would still be pretty safe for you to go. As others have said, you don't even need to get tested after direct exposure, much less a week-afterward exposure.
posted by bbqturtle at 9:20 AM on June 3, 2021 [14 favorites]
Even though we are vaccinated, are we still able to somehow contract the virus and spread it to anyone else who may not be vaccinated?
No. You're talking about someone who was there over a week ago. So, even if she (and her kids) were sick, for the virus to live, it would have to live INSIDE your BIL, (which is unlikely, 80% effective, but also, a short meeting like that is a low chance of transference). THEN, your BIL would need to be asymptomatic for the WEEK, then spread it to you (First, being asymptomatic would mean less chance of spreading it, and second, it's unlikely to spread to you because you're vaccinated and because spread chance from specific people is a somewhat low probability).
What is the answer to this question if she has one of the new variants?
Nothing in the above changes. The vaccines are very, very effective. Breakthrough rates are incredibly low.
Visit your brother! You are all vaccinated! Even if your SIL was THERE - it would still be pretty safe for you to go. As others have said, you don't even need to get tested after direct exposure, much less a week-afterward exposure.
posted by bbqturtle at 9:20 AM on June 3, 2021 [14 favorites]
This is purely a function of your risk tolerance. From what I have learned, it is highly unlikely that you will get infected and even more unlikely you will infect others
posted by AugustWest at 9:20 AM on June 3, 2021
posted by AugustWest at 9:20 AM on June 3, 2021
Someone who was there a week ago could have infected the occupants of the house; the BIL's DIL didn't visit and empty house. The kids (who could have had asymptomatic infection) where there and your BIL and his family could be infected.
While vaccinated you absolutely can be infected (asymptomatically or with symptoms), and even if you're asymptomatic you can spread it.
posted by nobeagle at 9:24 AM on June 3, 2021 [5 favorites]
While vaccinated you absolutely can be infected (asymptomatically or with symptoms), and even if you're asymptomatic you can spread it.
posted by nobeagle at 9:24 AM on June 3, 2021 [5 favorites]
So the risk isn’t about getting it directly from DIL; it’s that she gives it to BIL fam and you’d get it from them and/or spread from you to others?
This is vanishingly rare. Pre-symptomatic people (who do get sick later) can spread COVID. A-symptomatic people (who test positive but don’t actually get sick) basically don’t.
Vaccination cuts these risks much much further. As long as nobody’s sick by the time you get there you’re OK. You’re probably OK anyway.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:26 AM on June 3, 2021 [4 favorites]
This is vanishingly rare. Pre-symptomatic people (who do get sick later) can spread COVID. A-symptomatic people (who test positive but don’t actually get sick) basically don’t.
Vaccination cuts these risks much much further. As long as nobody’s sick by the time you get there you’re OK. You’re probably OK anyway.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:26 AM on June 3, 2021 [4 favorites]
The odds that the DIL managed to pass the virus to the BIL, who will then pass it on to you, are really quite low (yes, not zero; there's also a nonzero chance you'll be in a car accident on the way over there; at some point, people are going to have to get their minds around the concept that, with vaccinations, COVID risk is like other life risks that we manage, not something to be avoided at any cost whatsoever). If you want to go, go. However, if you think you'd be anxious the whole time and thus not enjoy it, then just put it off for a couple of weeks. It doesn't sound like there's any absolutely urgent need to go immediately. Your risk tolerance doesn't have to be perfectly rational, especially when it comes to optional/recreational activities.
posted by praemunire at 9:27 AM on June 3, 2021 [23 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 9:27 AM on June 3, 2021 [23 favorites]
While vaccinated you absolutely can be infected (asymptomatically or with symptoms), and even if you're asymptomatic you can spread it.
Askmi isn't about arguing, but I just want to mention, while what you are saying is technically true, we can do the math here. Microcovid.org is a conservative estimate of risks at every stage.
Chance of a vaccinated person getting it from someone after seeing them for 2 10 minute meetings: 2,000/1,000,000 or 0.2%.
Chance of that person transmitting it to you if THEY got covid? 50,000/1,000,000 or 5%.
With two odds, you multiply them together, so it becomes a chance of 0.01% or 100/1,000,000 chance. Driving 50 miles is about 50/1,000,000 chance of severe injury. That's not including the fact that your BIL would be asymptomatic, (lower spread).
So, vanishingly small.
posted by bbqturtle at 9:31 AM on June 3, 2021 [10 favorites]
Askmi isn't about arguing, but I just want to mention, while what you are saying is technically true, we can do the math here. Microcovid.org is a conservative estimate of risks at every stage.
Chance of a vaccinated person getting it from someone after seeing them for 2 10 minute meetings: 2,000/1,000,000 or 0.2%.
Chance of that person transmitting it to you if THEY got covid? 50,000/1,000,000 or 5%.
With two odds, you multiply them together, so it becomes a chance of 0.01% or 100/1,000,000 chance. Driving 50 miles is about 50/1,000,000 chance of severe injury. That's not including the fact that your BIL would be asymptomatic, (lower spread).
So, vanishingly small.
posted by bbqturtle at 9:31 AM on June 3, 2021 [10 favorites]
Even though we are vaccinated, are we still able to somehow contract the virus and spread it to anyone else who may not be vaccinated? What is the answer to this question if she has one of the new variants?There's a social/political aspect to this, and if you want to cut people like this out of your life then I'm not going to disagree with that. But in terms of risk to yourself and others:
As others have said, the drive to your BIL's is likely significantly more dangerous to you and others than the risk from COVID. It appears to be possible but extremely rare for a fully vaccinated person to catch even asymptomatic cases from contact with infected people. In real-world trials with current variants: "There were 161 Covid infections in the unvaccinated workers, compared with 16 in workers who had received only one dose by the time of their infection and only three infections in people who had received both doses and were two weeks out from their second dose." While it's logically possible, I haven't seen any reports of a vaccinated person catching it and then giving it to someone else. So the possibility of BIL catching it and then giving it to you is very, very close to zero, as far as we can tell.
I understand that the virus can't linger long outside a host.Well, not really, not in the sense I think you mean. It's an airborne virus. There are approximately zero recorded cases of someone catching it from a surface. (There are exactly zero recorded cases in the US of people catching it from packaging, for example.) It's impossible to catch it from someone who was in a room a week ago.
posted by caek at 9:45 AM on June 3, 2021 [1 favorite]
I would go visit, but if she shows up and starts making noises like she's going to be hanging around then simply make your excuses and leave. She is going to be spraying particles on you and you won't know what effect the particles will have until it's too late.
posted by bleep at 9:52 AM on June 3, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by bleep at 9:52 AM on June 3, 2021 [1 favorite]
vaccinated people can absolutely spread Covid, and also yes many of them have now died due to Covid. It's a relatively small portion but that's small consolation for those people and their loved ones. It's called a 'breakthrough' case and the CDC has released figures on hospitalizations and deaths due to Covid in vaccinated people.
You can't control your family's actions but you can tell them you won't visit unless they can avoid extended contact with unvaccinated people for some days prior to your visit.
posted by SaltySalticid at 10:09 AM on June 3, 2021 [7 favorites]
You can't control your family's actions but you can tell them you won't visit unless they can avoid extended contact with unvaccinated people for some days prior to your visit.
posted by SaltySalticid at 10:09 AM on June 3, 2021 [7 favorites]
Emily Oster had a good round up of studies so far regarding transmission by vaccinated people. The short answer is, asymptomatic transmission is reduced by somewhere between 75-100%, as compared to asymptotic transmission from an unvaccinated person.
https://emilyoster.substack.com/p/family-planning-unmasked-offices (scroll down to the chart then back up a paragraph or two)
In your shoes, I personally would go. But it's your call; I can understand wanting to be more careful still.
posted by february at 10:22 AM on June 3, 2021
https://emilyoster.substack.com/p/family-planning-unmasked-offices (scroll down to the chart then back up a paragraph or two)
In your shoes, I personally would go. But it's your call; I can understand wanting to be more careful still.
posted by february at 10:22 AM on June 3, 2021
There isn't a real health risk to you in this situation. This is a virus-related social-contract problem, and it's definitely frustrating to figure out what to do with these emotions right now.
I understand the reflex to retreat into caution in the face of someone else's uncontrolled selfishness. Most of us have spent over a year making personal sacrifices for the greater good, while trying to get everyone to distance and collectively adopt mask-wearing to slow the virus's spread. But at this point, the math is different. We have vaccines that protect us. You denying yourself the pleasure of your BIL's company is not going to add extra caution points to the pile that will counteract their daughter-in-law's bad behavior.
Maybe you wish that BIL and his wife were putting more social pressure on their daughter-in-law to, y'know, be a responsible citizen. Fair point. I can't imagine that this won't come up in conversation, though, and it will probably be a relief for you all to be able to share some feelings with each other in person.
posted by desuetude at 10:37 AM on June 3, 2021 [7 favorites]
I understand the reflex to retreat into caution in the face of someone else's uncontrolled selfishness. Most of us have spent over a year making personal sacrifices for the greater good, while trying to get everyone to distance and collectively adopt mask-wearing to slow the virus's spread. But at this point, the math is different. We have vaccines that protect us. You denying yourself the pleasure of your BIL's company is not going to add extra caution points to the pile that will counteract their daughter-in-law's bad behavior.
Maybe you wish that BIL and his wife were putting more social pressure on their daughter-in-law to, y'know, be a responsible citizen. Fair point. I can't imagine that this won't come up in conversation, though, and it will probably be a relief for you all to be able to share some feelings with each other in person.
posted by desuetude at 10:37 AM on June 3, 2021 [7 favorites]
Also people on this thread keep saying 80% efficacy for the vaccines but the reported efficacy percentages for Pfizer and Moderna are 95% and 94.1% respectively.
That is obviously impacted if someone in your group is immune compromised or has received the triple-J shot instead, but it's unclear from your post whether any of those issues apply.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:44 AM on June 3, 2021 [4 favorites]
That is obviously impacted if someone in your group is immune compromised or has received the triple-J shot instead, but it's unclear from your post whether any of those issues apply.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:44 AM on June 3, 2021 [4 favorites]
Response by poster: ...but it's unclear from your post whether any of those issues apply.
Just to jump in to add data...I got the Moderna shots, and my wife, BIL and SIL all got the Pfizer.
I suppose our underlying concern is not so much our own health as it is a question of whether we might be able to pass it on to our daughter and her husband and daughter, none of whom have been vaccinated (despite our pleading). I'm getting the impression that that happening is wildly unlikely, yes?
posted by Thorzdad at 10:53 AM on June 3, 2021
Just to jump in to add data...I got the Moderna shots, and my wife, BIL and SIL all got the Pfizer.
I suppose our underlying concern is not so much our own health as it is a question of whether we might be able to pass it on to our daughter and her husband and daughter, none of whom have been vaccinated (despite our pleading). I'm getting the impression that that happening is wildly unlikely, yes?
posted by Thorzdad at 10:53 AM on June 3, 2021
I am much more cavalier about post-vaccinated life and protocols than (seemingly!) most people on Metafilter, but I would wait the full two weeks to hang out with someone who had direct contact with a probably COVID-positive person.
posted by cakelite at 11:31 AM on June 3, 2021 [20 favorites]
posted by cakelite at 11:31 AM on June 3, 2021 [20 favorites]
It is not for me to say how to view your chances of passing it on to your daughter and son-in-law. But, they have chosen not to get vaccinated for whatever reason. They are opting to take the risk. Presumably, they understand the risk. When getting a vaccination was limited, then you certainly had a moral obligation to look out for the unvaccinated. Now, assuming the vaccination is available to anyone who wants it (there are certainly exceptions), they chose to take the risk of not getting vaccinated over whatever risk they think there is to get vaccinated.
Risk tolerance is a very individual thing and not always outwardly rational. If you are that concerned about it, don't go or delay the visit. If you just go by the statistics and research, the chances of you getting it and passing it on to your daughter is extremely slim.
posted by AugustWest at 11:32 AM on June 3, 2021 [3 favorites]
Risk tolerance is a very individual thing and not always outwardly rational. If you are that concerned about it, don't go or delay the visit. If you just go by the statistics and research, the chances of you getting it and passing it on to your daughter is extremely slim.
posted by AugustWest at 11:32 AM on June 3, 2021 [3 favorites]
I suppose our underlying concern is not so much our own health as it is a question of whether we might be able to pass it on to our daughter and her husband and daughter
Take the 100/1,000,000 chance of severe injury, and multiply it by the chances of transmitting it to them. Assuming you see them 3 times a week, and multiply the chance of transmitting it (about 30%) to the chance of you getting it, and you get 30/1,000,000. That's the chance you are severely injured when driving 30 miles. ALSO, that's STILL not taking into account lower transmission for asymptomatic people, which should reduce it by 50% twice at this point, so realistically it COULD be as low as 7/1,000,000.
For context, if your unvaccinated family went to the grocery store ONE TIME, that's a risk of 40/1,000,000. The risk of hanging out with you after this is likely much lower than any risk they would be putting themselves through if they chose any alternative activity.
posted by bbqturtle at 11:41 AM on June 3, 2021 [3 favorites]
Take the 100/1,000,000 chance of severe injury, and multiply it by the chances of transmitting it to them. Assuming you see them 3 times a week, and multiply the chance of transmitting it (about 30%) to the chance of you getting it, and you get 30/1,000,000. That's the chance you are severely injured when driving 30 miles. ALSO, that's STILL not taking into account lower transmission for asymptomatic people, which should reduce it by 50% twice at this point, so realistically it COULD be as low as 7/1,000,000.
For context, if your unvaccinated family went to the grocery store ONE TIME, that's a risk of 40/1,000,000. The risk of hanging out with you after this is likely much lower than any risk they would be putting themselves through if they chose any alternative activity.
posted by bbqturtle at 11:41 AM on June 3, 2021 [3 favorites]
The vaccine basically shifts everyone down on the severity level. You are less likely to be infected; if you are infected you are less likely to ever reach a viral load where you can transmit; if you do reach that level it will be for a shorter window; and so on.
The best definition of breakthrough (unfortunately one we can't directly measure, so not what's in the CDC link) is getting infected to the point that you can infect others. For you to be a risk to others, you'd need both BiL and yourselves to get breakthrough infections. This is in addition to needing the timing of their infectious period to be incredibly unfortunate.
All that being said, if it were me personally, I would probably not automatically go ahead with the visit. If it was easy to reschedule for a weekend or two later I'd probably figure why not wait? It's not that I think this is especially risky, but if it can be rescheduled easily I'd do that. I'd just be more relaxed.
But if this were the only chance all summer, or they'd bought plane tickets, or it was otherwise hard to reschedule, I'd let them come and try to get my rational part of my brain to beat down the paranoid bits.
posted by mark k at 12:02 PM on June 3, 2021 [5 favorites]
The best definition of breakthrough (unfortunately one we can't directly measure, so not what's in the CDC link) is getting infected to the point that you can infect others. For you to be a risk to others, you'd need both BiL and yourselves to get breakthrough infections. This is in addition to needing the timing of their infectious period to be incredibly unfortunate.
All that being said, if it were me personally, I would probably not automatically go ahead with the visit. If it was easy to reschedule for a weekend or two later I'd probably figure why not wait? It's not that I think this is especially risky, but if it can be rescheduled easily I'd do that. I'd just be more relaxed.
But if this were the only chance all summer, or they'd bought plane tickets, or it was otherwise hard to reschedule, I'd let them come and try to get my rational part of my brain to beat down the paranoid bits.
posted by mark k at 12:02 PM on June 3, 2021 [5 favorites]
It's unlikely you yourself would become ill, but you'd still be condoning the behavior.
posted by stormyteal at 12:06 PM on June 3, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by stormyteal at 12:06 PM on June 3, 2021 [10 favorites]
I'm getting the impression that that happening is wildly unlikely, yes?
That's what the science says, yes.
posted by DarlingBri at 12:55 PM on June 3, 2021 [3 favorites]
That's what the science says, yes.
posted by DarlingBri at 12:55 PM on June 3, 2021 [3 favorites]
OK, someone I know of is fully vaccinated, but was still wearing masks to be cautious, and got symptomatic covid anyway (just diagnosed). It is unlikely, but it can happen. She found out she had it just after she had gone to lunch with a friend undergoing cancer treatment. They were eating outside, so fingers crossed she did not pass it on. She was coughing a bit, but assumed it was allergies and went to lunch anyway.
So, it is unlikely that you will get it or become ill if you go, but there is a chance. What is the harm in pushing off the visit a couple of weeks?
posted by gudrun at 12:59 PM on June 3, 2021 [2 favorites]
So, it is unlikely that you will get it or become ill if you go, but there is a chance. What is the harm in pushing off the visit a couple of weeks?
posted by gudrun at 12:59 PM on June 3, 2021 [2 favorites]
The mRNA vaccines’ efficacy is somewhat lower with the UK, Brazilian, South African, and Indian variants, worth taking into account.
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:21 PM on June 3, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:21 PM on June 3, 2021 [1 favorite]
Response by poster: Thanks all!
We’ve decided to put-off the visit another week and see how things go on their end. They totally agree with the plan.
posted by Thorzdad at 1:35 PM on June 3, 2021 [14 favorites]
We’ve decided to put-off the visit another week and see how things go on their end. They totally agree with the plan.
posted by Thorzdad at 1:35 PM on June 3, 2021 [14 favorites]
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It appears to be very hard for a vaccinated person to get up enough viral load to *shed* it, so your BIL and wife are not likely to pass it on to you, but it would be possible to get it from the daughter-in-law (or possibly her kids.) In your shoes I would put off the visit for a month and wait and see, but I am definitely on the more-cautious side when it comes to indoor interactions.
posted by restless_nomad at 9:12 AM on June 3, 2021 [18 favorites]