Should I want 5G in a phone?
October 1, 2020 1:41 PM Subscribe
So I'm in the market for a new phone, and this is the year 5G is being pushed. I don't really stream video on my phone, and it's not really clear to me that I need faster mobile internet. I expect my next phone to last 4-5 years, like my previous two. Is 5G something I should care about? If so, why?
I think for most people 5G is irrelevant, and it will take years before they even finish the rollout, let alone start turning off 4G. There's no great incentive for companies to move people off the 4G spectrum, either, which is a big difference from previous standards. 5G is supposedly marginally more capable in the same spectrum as 4G, which is where almost everyone who doesn't live in a densely populated urban area will use it, whereas 4G was dramatically more efficient than 3G, and the same with 2G. But 4G pretty much optimized the use of spectrum as good as it's going to get, and more spectrum is coming on line as well, so if anything I think the transition to 5G is going to be even slower than previous ones. Now people who want to watch 4K video on their phones, or set up home Internet with a wireless backhaul instead of cable/DSL are going to want to move as soon as they can.
posted by wnissen at 1:56 PM on October 1, 2020
posted by wnissen at 1:56 PM on October 1, 2020
no, not really. unless you are downtown in a major city with no windows, it won't affect you that much.
posted by evilmonk at 2:09 PM on October 1, 2020
posted by evilmonk at 2:09 PM on October 1, 2020
I'm assuming you are in the USA, which is a statistically likely assumption I'm willing to make.
There's both a performance and a frequency band component to 5G. Usually people tout the performance component, but I don't consider it a particularly compelling argument. In particular, 4G already supports rather high bandwidths - upwards of 100-300 Mb/s depending on LTE specification supported. I suspect you don't get 100-300 Mb/s performance right now. Generally, cellular providers highly underprovision their networks because it's significantly cheaper to offer lower performance (via using lower channel bandwidths and fewer base stations). It's not the radio that's limiting your internet throughput, it's your cellular provider.
The frequency band component is more of a consideration. Quite bluntly, the 4G networks are overwhelmed because there is simply not enough bandwidth to cover all use cases. To give you an idea of how valuable existing spectrum is, during a spectrum auction in 2017, the FCC sold $19.8B in spectrum. 5G enables (many) more bands, including some bands that were traditionally used only for satellite telecommunications. Those bands are significantly less utilized, and the FCC is opening up many of them for 5G. Just recently, in August, the FCC sold about the same amount of spectrum as in 2017, but sold it for "only" $4.6B. Right now, the bands are significantly less valuable because very few devices can use them.
As 5G phones become more prominent, providers will be buying more and more 5G spectrum because there simply isn't 4G spectrum available (at any price) and because the 5G spectrum is cheaper. So, you should assume future capacity is in the 5G spectrum. As a result, your phone over time may have limited service in some areas. Most (but not all) of the new 5G spectrum is high-frequency / short-distance communication, so you can expect cities to migrate to 5G quicker than rural areas. It's unlikely 4G will go away in the next 5 (or even 10) years - in particular, you can still get 3G service in a decent chunk of the country. However, it's unlikely to be expanded, and likely will be slowly replaced with 5G.
Personally, I wouldn't worry about it in the 4-5 year time frame. I would, however, be prepared for the possibility that your nearest cellular tower may be replaced with 5G which could have the effect of requiring you to get a new phone at an inconvenient time. Right now, especially, 5G phones are limited, and come with a significant price premium (>$100) due to support for "mmWave" (millimeter wave) 5G bands that may not actually be useful in practice. So, it's possible you could pay extra money right now for 5G service that isn't actually useful for you.
posted by saeculorum at 2:21 PM on October 1, 2020 [6 favorites]
There's both a performance and a frequency band component to 5G. Usually people tout the performance component, but I don't consider it a particularly compelling argument. In particular, 4G already supports rather high bandwidths - upwards of 100-300 Mb/s depending on LTE specification supported. I suspect you don't get 100-300 Mb/s performance right now. Generally, cellular providers highly underprovision their networks because it's significantly cheaper to offer lower performance (via using lower channel bandwidths and fewer base stations). It's not the radio that's limiting your internet throughput, it's your cellular provider.
The frequency band component is more of a consideration. Quite bluntly, the 4G networks are overwhelmed because there is simply not enough bandwidth to cover all use cases. To give you an idea of how valuable existing spectrum is, during a spectrum auction in 2017, the FCC sold $19.8B in spectrum. 5G enables (many) more bands, including some bands that were traditionally used only for satellite telecommunications. Those bands are significantly less utilized, and the FCC is opening up many of them for 5G. Just recently, in August, the FCC sold about the same amount of spectrum as in 2017, but sold it for "only" $4.6B. Right now, the bands are significantly less valuable because very few devices can use them.
As 5G phones become more prominent, providers will be buying more and more 5G spectrum because there simply isn't 4G spectrum available (at any price) and because the 5G spectrum is cheaper. So, you should assume future capacity is in the 5G spectrum. As a result, your phone over time may have limited service in some areas. Most (but not all) of the new 5G spectrum is high-frequency / short-distance communication, so you can expect cities to migrate to 5G quicker than rural areas. It's unlikely 4G will go away in the next 5 (or even 10) years - in particular, you can still get 3G service in a decent chunk of the country. However, it's unlikely to be expanded, and likely will be slowly replaced with 5G.
Personally, I wouldn't worry about it in the 4-5 year time frame. I would, however, be prepared for the possibility that your nearest cellular tower may be replaced with 5G which could have the effect of requiring you to get a new phone at an inconvenient time. Right now, especially, 5G phones are limited, and come with a significant price premium (>$100) due to support for "mmWave" (millimeter wave) 5G bands that may not actually be useful in practice. So, it's possible you could pay extra money right now for 5G service that isn't actually useful for you.
posted by saeculorum at 2:21 PM on October 1, 2020 [6 favorites]
Also assuming this is a US question. As I write this: 5G is carrier specific, and the consumer available phones with 5G are two or three Samsung models (Android). 5G requires a higher density of antennas than 4G - a small antenna every 100 to 400 yards for 5G vs. maybe a big antenna mast per square mile. The point being, this isn't a case of just upgrading the existing 4G towers, there is new infrastructure that has to be built out. Anecdotally, 5G is currently being deployed as a showcase at specific locations; along interstates; large/dense venues like stadiums; metro areas. AT&T and Verizon have public maps showing you where it is currently available. A lot could change in five years, but I think most industry observers are expecting some kind of situation where you are mostly on 4G and get 5G in specific (dense) places.
posted by BlueTongueLizard at 10:31 AM on October 2, 2020
posted by BlueTongueLizard at 10:31 AM on October 2, 2020
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by jkent at 1:48 PM on October 1, 2020