U.S. to Sweden travel: what chance in June?
March 17, 2020 2:32 PM Subscribe
U.S. to Sweden, starting 11 weeks from now (leaving end of May, returning to U.S. late June): help me guess the chance this could happen as scheduled?
I'm trying to guess the chance this travel will be allowed/advisable, and I'm looking for any news sources to watch for predictions re. borders and travel.
Elements of the guessing:
1) will both continents be far enough on the other side of their curve? and
2) will there be testing people can undergo before they travel, to make sure they're not asymptomatic carriers? (I'm likely to have mild or possibly no symptoms if I get infected)
I'm a U.S. citizen. My family's been sheltering at home (no school since start of last week), and none of us have any travel still left between now and this trip. My flights are on IcelandAir, including a short connection in Reykjavik in both directions (JFK-KEF-ARN and ARN-KEF-JFK).
I'm trying to guess the chance this travel will be allowed/advisable, and I'm looking for any news sources to watch for predictions re. borders and travel.
Elements of the guessing:
1) will both continents be far enough on the other side of their curve? and
2) will there be testing people can undergo before they travel, to make sure they're not asymptomatic carriers? (I'm likely to have mild or possibly no symptoms if I get infected)
I'm a U.S. citizen. My family's been sheltering at home (no school since start of last week), and none of us have any travel still left between now and this trip. My flights are on IcelandAir, including a short connection in Reykjavik in both directions (JFK-KEF-ARN and ARN-KEF-JFK).
There is no way to determine what the curve will be 11 weeks from now. The USA has no idea of how many actual COVID 19 infections have occurred, and the USA has no idea of the infection rate. The USA is just starting to distribute COVID 19 tests. Play around with this forecast model app, and change parameters. It's going to be a rough ride.
Using that model you'd have (roughly up to) 22 thousand cases in Sweden in TEN DAYS, and up to 105 thousand in the USA. It's an exponential curve, so it's climbing rapidly from there.
Situations are changing too fast to make accurate predictions. Until the USA has accurate testing widely available, we are just guessing at infection rates.
If I were being pessimistic, I would guess you would not be able to cross borders in 11 weeks.
posted by blob at 3:19 PM on March 17, 2020 [5 favorites]
Using that model you'd have (roughly up to) 22 thousand cases in Sweden in TEN DAYS, and up to 105 thousand in the USA. It's an exponential curve, so it's climbing rapidly from there.
Situations are changing too fast to make accurate predictions. Until the USA has accurate testing widely available, we are just guessing at infection rates.
If I were being pessimistic, I would guess you would not be able to cross borders in 11 weeks.
posted by blob at 3:19 PM on March 17, 2020 [5 favorites]
I have zero resources to offer you, and just one recommendation, along with some thoughts: Figure out now how late you can wait to cancel and get some money back, because imo, it's not looking good. (All of this is totally MY OPINION and GUESSING... I'm sure someone will be able to chime in that has actual education in this, and not just a fascination with the numbers and history being created.)
We seem to be seven weeks (or more) behind China, infection-wise, so we could kinda guess at what things would be like, if the US were to go into total lockdown today. China's Wuhan-area lockdown started January 23rd, when the number of infections in China was 639, according to the chart from John Hopkins. It took approximately 3 weeks after the lockdown in China for new infections to slow.
So... seven weeks from now, our numbers are going to be a LOT higher, imo, than China's are right now.
Some additional thoughts:
- China hit approximately the same number of infections as the US currently has, on January 27 or 28, several days after the lockdown. In other words, they locked down with about 10% of the number of infections the US has today.
- As I write this, we have one metro area under lockdown, and one more tentatively talking about it happening in a couple days.
- I suspect many more will eventually grudgingly follow, but it may take 2-3 more weeks. I keep being surprised, though. Every timeline event I've guessed so far has happened sooner. Didn't think we'd see the first lockdown til next week.
- Every single delay at this point is going to lengthen the time it takes to stabilize infection rate.
So... allowed? Iffy. I'd go as far as doubtful. Especially as much of Europe is closing borders. Advisable? Heck no. Because as soon as they start lifting restrictions because people are getting restless, those infection numbers are going to jump again.
My honest prediction? That's gonna be somewhere around the WORST part of this mess. If it's turned and we've started picking up the pieces by then, it's gonna be just barely.
posted by stormyteal at 3:27 PM on March 17, 2020 [5 favorites]
We seem to be seven weeks (or more) behind China, infection-wise, so we could kinda guess at what things would be like, if the US were to go into total lockdown today. China's Wuhan-area lockdown started January 23rd, when the number of infections in China was 639, according to the chart from John Hopkins. It took approximately 3 weeks after the lockdown in China for new infections to slow.
So... seven weeks from now, our numbers are going to be a LOT higher, imo, than China's are right now.
Some additional thoughts:
- China hit approximately the same number of infections as the US currently has, on January 27 or 28, several days after the lockdown. In other words, they locked down with about 10% of the number of infections the US has today.
- As I write this, we have one metro area under lockdown, and one more tentatively talking about it happening in a couple days.
- I suspect many more will eventually grudgingly follow, but it may take 2-3 more weeks. I keep being surprised, though. Every timeline event I've guessed so far has happened sooner. Didn't think we'd see the first lockdown til next week.
- Every single delay at this point is going to lengthen the time it takes to stabilize infection rate.
So... allowed? Iffy. I'd go as far as doubtful. Especially as much of Europe is closing borders. Advisable? Heck no. Because as soon as they start lifting restrictions because people are getting restless, those infection numbers are going to jump again.
My honest prediction? That's gonna be somewhere around the WORST part of this mess. If it's turned and we've started picking up the pieces by then, it's gonna be just barely.
posted by stormyteal at 3:27 PM on March 17, 2020 [5 favorites]
No one can predict this, but a good place to start will be looking for travel insurance that will cover the cost of cancelling if you can't travel. Im guessing you wont be able to find any cover that includes Covid 19 and if so, that will tell you that insurance actuaries don't think this is a good bet.
posted by Lanark at 4:30 PM on March 17, 2020
posted by Lanark at 4:30 PM on March 17, 2020
The Coronavirus Is Here to Stay, So What Happens Next? (Ezekiel J. Emanuel, Susan Ellenberg and Michael Levy, NYT Opinion)
posted by katra at 6:18 PM on March 17, 2020 [1 favorite]
Unfortunately, normal is a long way off. We need to be thinking in terms of months, not weeks. We need to stop picturing that ubiquitous “flatten the curve” chart and start imagining a roller coaster.Also, there are links to additional sources posted in this previous AskMe: How long should social distancing last?
[...] No one knows for sure how long social distancing will have to last to reduce the spread to near zero. But if South Korea and China are appropriate exemplars, we’ll need to stay apart now for at least eight weeks, and maybe more. [...] Plan for social distancing at least until mid- or late May, and be thankful if it eases off earlier.
posted by katra at 6:18 PM on March 17, 2020 [1 favorite]
Nobody can say with any sort of certainty at this point. Personally, I would at least be willing to consider booking it if the price is right BUT I would be sure to have a plan for if this goes on for longer. That might mean booking a fully flexible/refundable ticket or buying travel insurance (if you can find one that actually covers COVID-19).
Of course you can also hope that Icelandair waives change fees and plan to take the flight later in the year. Currently their website states no change fees for flights from now till April 15. If this goes on for longer, I think it's pretty likely that'll get extended.
Personally, I'd consider May to be a gamble - this could blow over by then, but it could also be even worse. Even if borders open back up by then it could still be a mess. Any chance you could push the trip till later in the year, like fall at the earliest?
posted by photo guy at 7:40 PM on March 17, 2020
Of course you can also hope that Icelandair waives change fees and plan to take the flight later in the year. Currently their website states no change fees for flights from now till April 15. If this goes on for longer, I think it's pretty likely that'll get extended.
Personally, I'd consider May to be a gamble - this could blow over by then, but it could also be even worse. Even if borders open back up by then it could still be a mess. Any chance you could push the trip till later in the year, like fall at the earliest?
posted by photo guy at 7:40 PM on March 17, 2020
In related news: UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised' (Guardian, Mar. 15, 2020)
Scott Morrison says massive step-up of the government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak likely to be in place for at least six months
posted by katra at 7:59 PM on March 17, 2020
The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals. The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for 12 more months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.PM tells Australians to 'stop hoarding' as he announces sweeping measures to slow spread of coronavirus (Guardian, Mar. 17, 2020)
[...] Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.
That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.
Scott Morrison says massive step-up of the government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak likely to be in place for at least six months
posted by katra at 7:59 PM on March 17, 2020
I'm a pessimist, and I think that there is a pretty high chance of this not being possible. Either your flight will get cancelled, America will have closed borders, or the EU will still have closed borders.
Or one or all of you will be infected or self isolating.
That being said, if your flight gets cancelled, you'll get your money back. You should be able to change your flights right up until you fly, as airlines relax rules. So I would hold off doing anything about your flights until much closer to the date.
posted by kjs4 at 4:23 PM on March 18, 2020
Or one or all of you will be infected or self isolating.
That being said, if your flight gets cancelled, you'll get your money back. You should be able to change your flights right up until you fly, as airlines relax rules. So I would hold off doing anything about your flights until much closer to the date.
posted by kjs4 at 4:23 PM on March 18, 2020
The Imperial College report on covid-19 was published in full in the observer this morning. It seems to suggest the UK will not be at peak infection till the second half of May. The measures to flatten the peak should mean a later peak, maybe as late as mid-June. Plenty of people will still be ill after that of course. Sweden is a bit behind the UK so things might peak later there and it depends on what measures the Swedish government takes as to how they flatten their peak.
posted by biffa at 12:14 PM on March 22, 2020
posted by biffa at 12:14 PM on March 22, 2020
Response by poster: (Not doing this, unsurprisingly, but I really appreciate the answers and URLs, which I'll keep using)
posted by kalapierson at 6:59 PM on April 8, 2020
posted by kalapierson at 6:59 PM on April 8, 2020
This thread is closed to new comments.
(Right now nobody here won't be able to predict anything. The borders for incoming non-EU travelers got closed only today...)
posted by Namlit at 3:17 PM on March 17, 2020 [2 favorites]