What are the chances of a second referendum on Brexit?
November 15, 2018 3:01 PM Subscribe
Formally or informally, is there any handicapping or odds-making going on about the likelihood of a second referendum? By formally I mean are Ladbrokes, William Hill etc doing any “Brexit bookmaking” and taking bets? (FWIW, I’m not interested in betting per se, rather the degree to which betting odds may reflect national sentiment). And by informally, is any consensus emerging from tabloids, broadsheets, the BBC, conversations around the watercooler or down at the pub?
The Paddy Power link is region-restricted, but Ladbrokes and Coral are currently offering:
posted by mumkin at 4:14 PM on November 15, 2018 [1 favorite]
- NO UK EU Referendum before end 2019: 1/2
- Another UK EU Referendum before end 2019: 13/8
- UK votes to leave (again) in a 2019 referendum: 4/1
- Uk Votes To Remain In The Eu In A 2019 Referendum: 5/1
posted by mumkin at 4:14 PM on November 15, 2018 [1 favorite]
Seems unlikely, since there is no one of any stature in Parliament to champion such a vote.
Theresa May is focused on ratifying the current deal in Parliament. If she fails to do so she will leave office and therefore cannot organize a second referendum.
Her potential successor, Labour's Jeremy Corbyn, is a hard-line Leaver and appears disinterested in a second referendum.
The UK is looking at a hard Brexit. It's not going to be pretty for people in the UK for the next 20 years, and in the short term the crash out of the EU this spring will likely trigger global recession.
Remembering the financial meltdown and the Great Recession where I lost my job, I am saving cash myself in case things slow and down and I lose work (I live in Canada).
posted by JamesBay at 4:54 PM on November 15, 2018 [2 favorites]
Theresa May is focused on ratifying the current deal in Parliament. If she fails to do so she will leave office and therefore cannot organize a second referendum.
Her potential successor, Labour's Jeremy Corbyn, is a hard-line Leaver and appears disinterested in a second referendum.
The UK is looking at a hard Brexit. It's not going to be pretty for people in the UK for the next 20 years, and in the short term the crash out of the EU this spring will likely trigger global recession.
Remembering the financial meltdown and the Great Recession where I lost my job, I am saving cash myself in case things slow and down and I lose work (I live in Canada).
posted by JamesBay at 4:54 PM on November 15, 2018 [2 favorites]
I doubt it. I think there would be many people who would be very unhappy with that decision were it to take place. If the result turned out differently then that would be devastating for the UK (I say this as someone who voted to remain). Nobody wants to say to that great arsehole, Jean-Claude Juncker, that "actually we've changed our minds and we want to remain" and deal with the humiliation of "returning" with our tail between our legs. We have some sort of pride at stake even if we have concerns about the economy.
Economically there will be issues but I don't think the change will be devastating. One of the greatest contributors to our recent recession was media fearmongering and hopefully Corbyn as PM will temper the hysteria. I'm not as fearful as most remainers and I welcome the change.
If there are places taking bets then I would bet on it not happening.
posted by ihaveyourfoot at 5:35 PM on November 15, 2018
Economically there will be issues but I don't think the change will be devastating. One of the greatest contributors to our recent recession was media fearmongering and hopefully Corbyn as PM will temper the hysteria. I'm not as fearful as most remainers and I welcome the change.
If there are places taking bets then I would bet on it not happening.
posted by ihaveyourfoot at 5:35 PM on November 15, 2018
FWIW if there was such a referendum the polls suggest that the result wouldn't be strongly different from the first one.
The first referendum came out 51% leave / 48% stay. The polls tend to show similar proportions the other way around - so slightly in favour of staying but not by much.
I can't imagine how Parliament would parse such a result - one referendum slightly in favour, one referendum slightly against - for all the shouting from some MPs I can't believe too many of them relish the idea of trying to navigate a course of action based on such a result.
Hmmm - perhaps Parliament should pass a bill making David Cameron come back to serve as PM so that he can sort out the giant shit show that he created then lock him the Tower when he's finished ... I feel that might have broad support !.
posted by southof40 at 7:23 PM on November 15, 2018
The first referendum came out 51% leave / 48% stay. The polls tend to show similar proportions the other way around - so slightly in favour of staying but not by much.
I can't imagine how Parliament would parse such a result - one referendum slightly in favour, one referendum slightly against - for all the shouting from some MPs I can't believe too many of them relish the idea of trying to navigate a course of action based on such a result.
Hmmm - perhaps Parliament should pass a bill making David Cameron come back to serve as PM so that he can sort out the giant shit show that he created then lock him the Tower when he's finished ... I feel that might have broad support !.
posted by southof40 at 7:23 PM on November 15, 2018
More likely than it was ~6 months ago, with several politicians from both major parties now speaking out in favour of it. Labour’s position fluctuates somewhat but is currently that another such vote would be an option if May’s deal can’t get through Parliament and Labour can’t force a general election.
It would however be hard to practically implement. First, the timing: you’d have to get legislation through Parliament, organise the referendum and hold the referendum all before March 2019 when the U.K. is due to leave. Second, who in politics would actually lead the Remain camp - public support for remaining in the event of another referendum isn’t so high that politicians want to back it, most of the government can’t because this would be a public admission that they are unwilling or unable to achieve a good deal, Labour won’t because they aren’t enough in favour of it. And third, because even if the vote is to stay, then what? There’s no clear path to simply revoking Article 50 which gave the U.K.’s notice to leave, especially in such a short timeframe.
posted by Catseye at 10:21 PM on November 15, 2018
It would however be hard to practically implement. First, the timing: you’d have to get legislation through Parliament, organise the referendum and hold the referendum all before March 2019 when the U.K. is due to leave. Second, who in politics would actually lead the Remain camp - public support for remaining in the event of another referendum isn’t so high that politicians want to back it, most of the government can’t because this would be a public admission that they are unwilling or unable to achieve a good deal, Labour won’t because they aren’t enough in favour of it. And third, because even if the vote is to stay, then what? There’s no clear path to simply revoking Article 50 which gave the U.K.’s notice to leave, especially in such a short timeframe.
posted by Catseye at 10:21 PM on November 15, 2018
The website Oddschecker collates all the different UK bookmakers' offerings on most things, including a second referendum. Not sure if it's region restricted. They also have an "insight" blog where they comment on how the odds have changed recently.
posted by rollick at 2:33 AM on November 16, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by rollick at 2:33 AM on November 16, 2018 [1 favorite]
It could happen. All 'pride' is already gone at this point so I don't think that is really an argument. It is never a good reason to stick with a bad decision.
The truth is that if May's deal cannot get through Parliament, then there are no other choices left at this point. The EU is not interested in further negotiations but has hinted that it might agree to an Article 50 extension in order to accomodate a referendum - or a general election.
The 'No Deal' or 'Crashing out' scenario is not really an option. Anyone who believes it is is either severely underinformed, or really hates the UK or both. The level of disruption it would cause would be catastrophic.
Jo Maugham, who is a QC who has been launching cases ensuring Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally among other things, has a prediction:
*Cabinet backs deal
*Parliament rejects deal
*Lab calls vote of no confidence, loses
*Markets tank
*Gilt yields rise
*Theresa May offers referendum on Remain/No deal
posted by vacapinta at 4:51 AM on November 16, 2018 [4 favorites]
The truth is that if May's deal cannot get through Parliament, then there are no other choices left at this point. The EU is not interested in further negotiations but has hinted that it might agree to an Article 50 extension in order to accomodate a referendum - or a general election.
The 'No Deal' or 'Crashing out' scenario is not really an option. Anyone who believes it is is either severely underinformed, or really hates the UK or both. The level of disruption it would cause would be catastrophic.
Jo Maugham, who is a QC who has been launching cases ensuring Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally among other things, has a prediction:
*Cabinet backs deal
*Parliament rejects deal
*Lab calls vote of no confidence, loses
*Markets tank
*Gilt yields rise
*Theresa May offers referendum on Remain/No deal
posted by vacapinta at 4:51 AM on November 16, 2018 [4 favorites]
I think Brexit is just an absolute morass.
I think at the moment literally anything is possible, up to the real potential for political crisis and of actual political violence, especially in NI.
It's that serious.
Based on this I think any decision making will be crippled for the foreseeable, and a good while after and arguably has the potential to change the politics of the UK / Europe for good.
posted by Middlemarch at 4:56 AM on November 16, 2018
I think at the moment literally anything is possible, up to the real potential for political crisis and of actual political violence, especially in NI.
It's that serious.
Based on this I think any decision making will be crippled for the foreseeable, and a good while after and arguably has the potential to change the politics of the UK / Europe for good.
posted by Middlemarch at 4:56 AM on November 16, 2018
While its easy to understand the motives and motivations of the political classes, the will of the people is something else, and arguably much harder to extrapolate.
The thing to think about is that 17.4 million Britons democratically voted to Leave, period.
If leave voters don't get it, those 17.4 million people are not only discredited, not only disenfranchised, but also treated with immense disdain by politicians from all sides.
What do they do next? Vote? Why?- that's what people really should be worried about - an angry unfocused and unrepresented electorate could be potentially very fertile ground, and very dangerous for the powers that be at a time when confidence in current politics ans politicians is totally dead.
Trumpism could be coming to British politics, and sooner than you think!
posted by Middlemarch at 5:09 AM on November 16, 2018
The thing to think about is that 17.4 million Britons democratically voted to Leave, period.
If leave voters don't get it, those 17.4 million people are not only discredited, not only disenfranchised, but also treated with immense disdain by politicians from all sides.
What do they do next? Vote? Why?- that's what people really should be worried about - an angry unfocused and unrepresented electorate could be potentially very fertile ground, and very dangerous for the powers that be at a time when confidence in current politics ans politicians is totally dead.
Trumpism could be coming to British politics, and sooner than you think!
posted by Middlemarch at 5:09 AM on November 16, 2018
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posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:08 PM on November 15, 2018