Statistics on rocket launch postponements

May 17, 2015 11:23 AM

I'm taking the nephew to Cape Canaveral for the scheduled June 19th Falcon launch and am trying to evaluate the chances of the launch actually happening that day. Obviously acts of god can't be predicted (although time of year could matter) but mechanical failures tend to follow some patterns. So, is there a canonical list somewhere of every rocket launch and a record of why it was postponed (and for how long) if so?
posted by Tell Me No Lies to Science & Nature (5 answers total)

Falcon is too new new have a track record, but among NASA and ULA folks at the cape, that company has the (wistful, probably envious) name "ScrubX". I don't think it's really deserved.

I watch launches pretty often, and I estimate you have a 75% chance of seeing a launch without delay. We're getting into our stormy season.
posted by cmiller at 11:43 AM on May 17, 2015

SpaceX wants both launch and landing site to have clear enough weather for them to try a sea landing to recycle the stage. But considering that this is a pretty essential resupply mission for the International Space Station, there is a great interest in it completing safely and successfully soon.
posted by nickggully at 1:52 PM on May 17, 2015

Best answer: You can look at Spaceflight Now's launch log - unfortunately, it's just in reverse chronological order, and not easily sortable by launch site or rocket type or anything like that. But most entries do have a record of delays and scrubs, and often links to stories that may provide more detailed reasons. (If you want to look into the future instead, they also have a Launch Schedule which they do a pretty good job of keeping up to date.)
posted by sigmagalator at 1:52 PM on May 17, 2015

Best answer: Also came in to recommend Spaceflight Now's launch log. A few days before the launch they will begin live coverage on their Mission Status Center which will include updates on mechanical and other issues and the chance of favourable weather during the launch window.
posted by sizeable beetle at 2:06 PM on May 17, 2015

Response by poster: Thanks everyone. As it is the first launch that fit the schedule got moved out by a week and so far the second one has moved out by a day. Reservations with no cost to change are key...
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 10:48 AM on June 17, 2015