A little help on a statistics paper on inflation, in German.

January 2, 2012 12:10 AM

I am looking for a little translation help on an inflation statistics paper in German language (look in more inside for the link). This official paper is quite interesting for students of statistics and social students interested in perceived cost of living vs actual cost of living, in Europe as well as in any other country, as it allegedly shows that indeed there were some excessive rouding of prices during the conversion to euro in Germany.

While browsing the net I have found this paper (PDF) from Statistische Bundesamt, via Testosteronepit.com blog. According to the blog:

However, the report confirms a popular suspicion that eating and drinking establishments took advantage of the new euro for the first two years by rounding up. Smaller items—an espresso, for example—could see a jump in price of as much as 100%. Thus, an espresso drinker would perceive a painful level of inflation though espresso has an insignificant weight in the basket of goods. Price increases in restaurants leveled off after the initial spike, and for the decade as a whole, they amounted to only 18%

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While I surely am not looking for a full translation, I would appreciate any confirmation of the fact that, indeed, price rounding was excessive and for what goods it was excessive, and by whom the prices were rounded; a translation of that particular part would also be appreciated, as I am trying to substantiate that inflation has affected and is affecting european workers, while wages weren't always kept up with inflation, expecially for buyers of high frequency low cost goods (food, basic necessities, whose demand is quite rigid and price insensible).

posted by elpapacito to Work & Money (5 answers total)

I skim read the paper and it basically says that inflation was not out of the ordinary in the year(s) following the switch to the Euro, but consumers felt like it was. This was mainly because price increases affected frequently bought goods, but not the less frequently bought ones. Also the last year of the Deutschmark had particularly low prices, so consumers used that as a reference point and that made them feel like increases were steeper than they were. The paragraph that summarises this best is the following:

Herausgekommen sind Ergebnisse, die erklären, wieso es zu einem so starken Auseinanderklaffen von gemessener und wahrge- nommener Teuerung kam. Vor allem war es das Auftreten von Preissteigerungen bei Gütern, die von den Konsumenten häufig gekauft werden, die die Inflationswahrnehmung in der Bevölkerung bestimmt haben. Die Diskrepanz wurde in den Jahren nach der Bargeldumstellung noch verstärkt, wenn Konsumenten als Referenzperiode die letzten DM- Jahre beibehalten hatten. In diesen Fällen ist eine sehr hohe Inflationswahrnehmung geradezu zwangsläufig.
posted by lollusc at 12:51 AM on January 2, 2012

Also, 4.1 has specific information on the types of goods they looked at. For example, they note that the 10 most important types of goods that affected perception of price increases accounted for around a quarter of all purchases, but only made up 5% of the consumer price index. These were rent, petrol, travel, cars, phone costs, cigarettes, electricity, water, central heating costs, and beer. (heh). On the other hand, the 10 goods that affect the consumer price index the most (making up 40% of it) only made up 7% of the IWI (perceived price index? Or something like that. I missed where they defined this acronym). Frequently bought items like newspapers, beer, and bread rolls are often mentioned by people as having gone up a lot in price, but people don't mention health insurance, which actually did go up a lot.

(That is all paraphrasing the bottom of p 996 and the top of p 997).
posted by lollusc at 1:02 AM on January 2, 2012

Best answer: One last comment. This paper says absolutely nothing along the lines of what you quoted above as an excerpt from the blog. There is no mention of coffees, restaurants being particular price-increasers, or even any confirmation that cafes or dining establishments rounded up. I think the blog was either being disingenuous, or mistakenly linked this report when they meant to link something else.
posted by lollusc at 1:16 AM on January 2, 2012

Response by poster: That's quite inspiring, thanks lollusc! Indeed I am attempting to analyze the inflation in my country...the point is, people whose expenses are concentrated on frequently bought goods, such as beer (heh!) do perceived inflation as it develops over time, whereas people whose expenses are less concentrated on these goods have a different perception. That's hardly news, in the sense that's the housewife effect...they have a "better grip" on how inflation is going on, as opposed to their non-supermarket going husbands.
posted by elpapacito at 1:16 AM on January 2, 2012

Response by poster: Should have been on preview...wow, gotta point that out to the blog. thanks lollusc!
posted by elpapacito at 1:17 AM on January 2, 2012