Gods throw dice; Fate plays chess
April 12, 2011 9:49 PM   Subscribe

How does one go about learning to think ahead? Great chess players think several, if not many, moves ahead. I want to do that in life. What do you suggest?

With an exciting new job and move to a new part of the country looming for me and my family, I want to make better first marks on this clean slate.

I am convinced that if I could develop the skill of playing life several moves ahead I could avoid lots of potential problems. This can include anything from retirement savings to insurance to oil changes to exercise to effective grocery buying to more conscious child-rearing, and more. I want to stop living from paycheck to paycheck, regretting early steps not taken, and having a myopic view of life in general. But my upbringing, as well as our consumerist/fast food-style society, seem to have conspired to make me the equivalent of a chess novice.

I have heard that Japanese companies make business plans for *generations* to come. That's a long view!

What books, philosophies, websites, stories, biographies, best practices, etc. would you suggest to help me learn how to think this way? Even games are welcome. I want to start looking at the world in terms of having margin in my time and money, in terms of routine maintenance, in terms of working smarter. All areas of life welcome in the discussion.

"In life, as in chess, forethought wins." - Charles Buxton
posted by skypieces to Society & Culture (29 answers total) 48 users marked this as a favorite
 
Response by poster: I mentioned "even games". Here is one I saw suggested.
http://eslus.com/Gizmos/rushour/rushHour.html
posted by skypieces at 10:06 PM on April 12, 2011


Learn to play chess, and learn to do what chess players do: play the game in their head several moves into the future, imaging different responses to their move, and how they'd respond to the responses.

In life, as in chess, this is no harder (and no easier) than just sitting down and imagining "I do X; Y happens. How do I respond to Y?" As in chess, there's a branching tree of possibilities, so part of the skill you're developing is imagining many different possible Xs and Ys, and judging the likelihood of each. If you have trouble keeping all the possibilities in your head, there's no reason you can't write it down as you go.
posted by fatbird at 10:20 PM on April 12, 2011


Chess is a great game, however the number of moves on a Chess board for a certain move are small compared the vast random things that happen in life.

Go is a game where a probabilistic approach is what is required. It is more similar to thinking in ways that can handle more contingencies.

Perhaps learning Go would be instructive.

As for life, is what you're aiming for to be more mindful and aware of our habits and thoughts and what they lead to?

As for how to be more mindful, I have no idea.
posted by sien at 10:23 PM on April 12, 2011


If you'd like to follow the mindfulness tack there's Mindfulness in Plain English.
posted by sockpup at 10:32 PM on April 12, 2011


The problem with doing that in life is that the search tree diverges too widely to search it very deep. If you insist on trying anyway, you risk paralysis by analysis.
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 10:33 PM on April 12, 2011 [2 favorites]


Response by poster: I suppose "mindful" is a good word for it. "Forethought" and "strategic" also come to mind. It is more about living with an intent on planning ahead than just plotting in moments of specific decision. Perhaps it is in recognizing that moment-to-moment choices can be far-reaching. (e.g. Do I go to bed at a decent hour and have a better day tomorrow, even though tomorrow's agenda does not seem to necessitate an early rise? Do I eat this dessert? Do I put the dishes away now?) Learning the lessons of hindsight.
posted by skypieces at 10:37 PM on April 12, 2011


Response by poster: I should add: recognizing the potentially far-reaching consequences, and learning to opt for the mature route more often. Even if a consequence does not seem immediately imminent, acting maturely as a habit avoids unforeseen pitfalls more often.
posted by skypieces at 10:41 PM on April 12, 2011


It's pretty difficult to play life like a chess game - too many possible things to do to be able to use chess-like methods for thinking to do things such as, like you mention, saving for retirement.

I suggest an approach where you start thinking at the "end" and work backwards. Where do you want to be next year? In 5 years? In 10 years? 50? And not just that but also what will you need to be happy, healthy and successful at these milestones?

So instead of trying to thinking 6 moves ahead of what you're going to do this morning, try thinking about how you'd like to travel to Germany when you retire in 20 years and then realize that you could start learning German next weekend.

Figure out your goals, aims and ambitions and work towards them. It's easier to get on the right path if you figure out what you want the path to lead to.
posted by Diplodocus at 11:26 PM on April 12, 2011 [3 favorites]


I would recommend acquiring knowledge about human psychology that impacts choices in gaming, rather than the other way around: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, Stumbling on Happiness, Predictably Irrational, etc.
posted by Monsieur Caution at 11:29 PM on April 12, 2011 [4 favorites]


Einstein said “Problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.” In order to get away from we are, we need to bootstrap yourself to the next level. That means continuous and focused investment to gain successful habits. It means time, like Richard Hamming advised: "spend Friday thinking only great thoughts". It means resources, like saving money and cutting back on other comforts. It means energy, to overcome fear and inertia; and to focus on your goal. It means sacrifice, forgoing the present to invest in the future. It means daring to dream big and fought fiercely to protect your dream.

There are too many things related to this subject, but check out this website from my prof; it's a good resource, albeit more academic-related:

http://vlsicad.ucsd.edu/Research/Advice/index.html

Read the Richard Hamming page.
posted by curiousZ at 11:32 PM on April 12, 2011 [1 favorite]


Well, in chess, there are standard openings and tactics. Similarly, there is standard advice for many situations in life. Playing chess well primarily involves learning well-studied patterns and openings so you can recognizing these situations in actual games. Even at higher levels in chess and other competitive games (Starcraft, etc.), most planning and strategizing still occurs outside of games, when the players review past games and practice for the situations they expect in the next game.

So, to think ahead in life, look up what has worked for other people in the past. There's advice for saving, retirement planning, oil changes, career advancement, and parenting, as well as on how to balance everything. Basically, you don't need to reinvent the wheel.
posted by sninctown at 11:52 PM on April 12, 2011


You've mentioned some specific issues that you're generalizing. Maybe you need to focus on the specifics, one at a time?

For example, paycheck-to-paycheck living. What if you focused on that? I'm a big fan of You Need a Budget, not just for the software (which is good, if a bit maddening at times) but the "four rules" philosophy toward managing your finances. They also have a pretty amazing community in the forums.
posted by rouftop at 12:55 AM on April 13, 2011 [1 favorite]


There are two facets to chess, knowing the game and knowing your opponent.

Knowing the game is understanding how the pieces move. For example, it's very easy to trap yourself into a very limited movement range with a knight-led opening. If you're going to lead with a knight, it's also good to move two key pawns forward immediately to provide yourself with flexibility for advancing, else you'll spend valuable moves backtracking the knight.

In summary, the game of chess has a lot of moving pieces, each of which affects the others. You can either move each piece independently and opportunistically, or coherently, in a strategy. You can back up the knight with a bishop over quite a range of board provided you have moved the pawns correctly.

The second facet is knowing your opponent. Will they perform a book opening? Or are they playing opportunistically? Are they conservative or aggressive? Will they sacrifice a queen for two lesser power pieces? The character of the opponent is the other have of the equation.

Overall, chess is a game of iterations and a microcosm of life. Similar rules apply. If you're going to take a job a hundred miles away (knight-led attack), ensure that you have put your pawn in the right place (gas payments), for you don't want your options restricted (savings account) by changes to the game (gas prices).

Perhaps a good connecter between the two is The Art of War by Sun Tzu. Also realising the difference between cognition and meta-cognition. If you played 10 games of Chess every day for a year, you will probably not go through all the iterative possibilities of real-life events consciously but that will be an evolution to your thinking process and whilst you may not see it, you will start making decisions in that way.

I disagree completely with the idea that chess is just a game. A friend and I played for three years in high school, an hour a day speed chess during our free period (whilst listening to Metallica because that just how we rolled).

He became a serious strategist deployed by the US Army in Germany and could literally see through the fog of ambiguity in situations and produce the result he desired even when the option was seemingly not on the table.
posted by nickrussell at 1:23 AM on April 13, 2011 [2 favorites]


I can't comment on the chess or the books but it seems like you need to do two things.

1. Cultivate good habits ie. See the dentist regularly, put aside money each paycheck into savings,(automatically is the best way), always do the dishes right after you eat etc. Although don't do it all at once small changes are easier to stick to.

2. Figure out what you want short, medium and long term then break those goals down to manageable pieces. You can't develop strategies if you don't know where their going. I like lists for this. There is a certain satisfaction in crossing thing out when their done.
posted by SpaceWarp13 at 2:21 AM on April 13, 2011 [1 favorite]


You're thinking about this entirely wrong. You can't plan for the numerous contingencies of life. But you can lay a foundation from which you are well prepared for whatever life throws at you. To do that you need to:

1. Save as much money as you can.

2. Be as healthy as you can which means:
a. Exercise
b. Eat healthy food.
c. Keep your weight to a healthy BMI.

3. Be responsible to others, do what you say you'll do
- and they will help when you need it

4. Be grateful and loving
- this is mental maturity and shields you from upset
posted by mono blanco at 4:33 AM on April 13, 2011 [7 favorites]


Life will afford you opportunities that good chess opponents will not.

Have long-term goals. Don't lose sight of them.

As events occur, consider them in light of your long-term goals: is there some way of reacting to this event that will further your long-term goals? If so, react that way, and not in some other way.
posted by hoople at 4:39 AM on April 13, 2011 [1 favorite]


That might be missing some context: good chess against good opponents requires thinking many steps ahead because a good opponent will thoroughly constrain the space of moves you could make that wouldn't be mistakes; if you can't think ahead you'll fall into a trap and be checkmated soon.

Life isn't played against such an opponent, and has more room for spontaneity and serendipity. Planning is not a bad thing, per se, but much more important is having goals in mind and reacting to life events (and decision points, etc.) in ways that will move you towards those goals (pr, at least, not move you away from those goals).

So focus on that at first: know what you want, and try to make decisions to bring you closer to what you want.
posted by hoople at 4:43 AM on April 13, 2011


And, to make it concrete: say your goal is "more effective grocery shopping". One way to be "more effective" at grocery shopping is to stock up on non-perishables (toothpaste, dried pasta, canned beans, etc.) when it's on sale.

There's a certain amount of forethought you'd need to pull that off -- recognizing it's what you want to do, setting up extra storage space, etc. -- but you can't plan the sales dates; the best you can do is know you want to stock up, be ready to stock up when the opportunity presents itself, pay enough attention to notice when an opportunity to stock up presents itself, and then be mindful enough to take advantage of the opportunity when present.

Is that "thinking many steps ahead"? Somewhat, for sure, but it's arguably mostly about having goals and recognizing opportunities to advance towards those goals.
posted by hoople at 4:52 AM on April 13, 2011


In chess, there's a defensive and offensive calculation to every move. For example, when you move a pawn, you want to pause and think about that move for a minute, examine your opponents pieces as well as your own, and imagine the types of vulnerabilities you open yourself up to.

Essentially you're looking for a good mindset for calculating risk vs reward.

And with any risk/reward scenario, you identify what you comfortable losing/trading off, what you don't want to lose, and what you absolutely cannot lose...and you develop your offensive/defensive strategy from that. So at its very basic level, try incorporating that mindset in your life first...before trying to think too far ahead, identify those pieces, then start thinking about how to protect them.
posted by samsara at 4:56 AM on April 13, 2011 [1 favorite]


I've developed an informal checklist for buying *stuff,* and so my interior monologue sounds like this:

"Ooooh, pretty, shiny object! Do I really need it? [Usually not, and I keep a list in my notebook of things I need, so I double-check to make sure it's not there.] Yes, I guess I do. What am I going to use it for? How often is it going to get used? Where am I going to store it? Does it work well with/fill a gap in my other tools? [If I get this far, then I start asking about the object itself.] Is it going to last? If it breaks, can I fix it or do I know someone who can? [Now price and source.] How does this price compare to other stores' prices? Is this likely to go on sale anytime soon? Do I have any sale coupons for this store? Am I really all that happy giving my money to this particular manufacturer and store? Am I likely to be back here in the next few weeks, so I can have some time to think about buying this? Bottom line: Does it make sense to buy it here and now, or can this wait?"

This line of thinking has kept me from buying a lot of stuff that, in retrospect, I really didn't need anyway. That said, I also stock up on sale non-perishables, as noted above; the key here is keeping a list of what to buy and what *not* to buy. There is such a thing as too many of one type of non-perishable and not enough storage.
posted by MonkeyToes at 6:38 AM on April 13, 2011


Response by poster: My preoccupation with the chess illustration aside, thank you for the suggestions all. In sifting through the replies I was struck with the urge to go dust off my copy of "The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People". It seems that this book ends up categorized as a time management treatise when it has a lot to say about the inner construct of a person's character. The first three "Private Victory" Habits seem well worth reviewing:

1) Be Proactive
2) Begin With The End In Mind
3) Put First Things First

We'll see how this goes. I am eager to hear more real-life examples of the application of these kinds of principles. Perhaps "principles" and a look at paradigms in general is more of where I was aiming. Skill in thinking X number of moves ahead is only one piece of an overall habit of seeing the world with a longer view.

Real-life illustrations eagerly welcome, personal and otherwise.
posted by skypieces at 6:40 AM on April 13, 2011


Response by poster: A "Seven Habits" primer/summary.
posted by skypieces at 6:42 AM on April 13, 2011 [1 favorite]


When I read your question, I also thought the about the time management idea. I was introduced to this concept during a training class of how to use our new Franklin day planner books. The instructor asked the class for examples of long-term goals.

One person wanted to travel to Paris sometime. So, using that as an example, how would you break down the categories of what it would take to accomplish that:
passport/legal issues, finances, speaking the language a little, where to stay, what to do, transportation to Paris and transportation while in Paris, etc.

For each category, list the ultimate goal, wishlist items, etc. Then list the steps that it will take to get there and put the first of those steps in your daily planner: Download passport forms, Get travel books, get language CDs from library, change paycheck direct deposit to put $50 per week into savings, etc.
posted by CathyG at 7:17 AM on April 13, 2011


Lots of posts on the differences between Chess and real life, and I notice there's one that hasn't been pointed out. I don't doubt that Chess is great at developing cognition, forethought, and planning ability. However, Chess is still a model. And just like in economics, models work great on paper, but not always in real life.

I'm going to get into mushy pop-psych, so feel free to call me out. But the reason why I made the earlier comparison is that I notice that some of the activities the OP mentions require self-control. In the last few years there's been articles written on how self-control, discipline, and willpower work very much like muscles. Meaning, if you work at a stressful job all day, you're more tempted to lapse into playing video games or indulging on a pint of ice cream when you get home at the end of the day. There's a "duh, of course" factor when I mention this, but it's surprising how often we do this.

To expand, you can't only know the game and the opponent, but study heavily the common element in all of this: yourself. Basically, begin thwarting and sabotaging your future bad self. For example, set it up so a portion of your paycheck automatically goes to a savings account. Have fruit in your fridge or at your desk so that you snack on that instead of something unhealthy.

Here's something else. In what activities are you are an abstainer versus in what you are a moderator? This is an important distinction that will get you to avoid a lot of headache down the line. Abstainers are ones that cannot eat just one, while moderators can do something occasionally without getting into trouble.

tl;dr:

1) Know yourself. Not only the good you. But the you that over-spends, over-eats, under-exercises, hates Mondays, and kicks puppy dogs.

2) Divide and conquer. Know that willpower is a muscle, so don't tackle all bad habits at once.
posted by FJT at 7:41 AM on April 13, 2011 [2 favorites]


This article claims that advanced chess players don't really think many movies ahead. You might find the analysis of how they approach the game interesting/helpful.
posted by buriedpaul at 7:49 AM on April 13, 2011


You mentioned games. Four in a Line is something you can learn and play right now as a way to limber up your "if-then" mental muscles. My 7-y.-o. has taught himself to play, and we do a lot of discussion around "If you do this, then what will your opponent do?" and "If you make this move, then how does it work to your advantage?" Set it to medium or hard and see what you can do against the computer. Good practice in developing a sense of strategy and basic analytical thinking (which might be the thing that you're really chasing--how to develop your analytical thinking skills).
posted by MonkeyToes at 9:37 AM on April 13, 2011


Chessplayers don't in fact usually think very many moves ahead, if by that you mean specific concrete moves like "Bishop takes pawn". Usually being an important qualifier here, as there are some situations where it's possible and useful, but they're a minority.

What some players do, depending on their playing style, is think "strategically". Which means not so much thinking "Next move I do A, then if he does B, I do C, then if he does D, I do E..." but rather "Over the next few moves I'll tempt him into weakening square X, then later I will bring my knight there, where it should ultimately prove useful in supporting a kingside attack".

That being said, what you are really interested in is not how chessplayers think but how to take a longer term view of your life.

That is a big topic, but here are some tips... using chess related analogies...

- Get used to the idea that developing yourself is a very long-term project. It takes from 10,000 to 50,000 hours of engagement in chess for a player to go from novice to grandmaster. Of course they're improving all along the way, so there are benefits as you go, but becoming a grandmaster doesn't happen overnight, or even in a couple of years. It's more like the journey from starting kindergarten to finishing grad school.

- Of course no one says you have to go all the way. Just like learning to do arithmetic is pretty darn useful even if you don't go all the way to a PhD in math.

- Have an ultimate goal that is meaningful and inspiring to you, that you personally can get emotionally committed to. Some people can get fired up about becoming a chess grandmaster, some can't. Framing the goal can be critical. Maybe "Save X thousand dollars" won't do it for you, but "Put away X thousand dollars for my kids' education" will.

- Then translate the ultimate goal into some very concrete short term goals. "Increase my rating by X points" or "Learn how to deal with that opening John always plays" or "Move a couple of places up the club ladder".

- Set yourself up so that making progress is as little dependent on willpower and conscious decisions as possible. For example, get into the routine of going to the chess club every Wednesday. Or if you commute by train, keep a chess book and magnetic travelling set in your bag. (Tip for saving... figure out how much is reasonable for you to save per month, get a separate savings account, set up *automated* transfers out of your main day-to-day account.)

- Like the chess club example, it's a big help if you can make the things you need to do a) social and b) timed appointments. i.e. You go because your friends or team-mates are expecting you. And you go because that is the specific time it happens, it's not a vague "sometime when I'm in the mood" thing.

- It can be quite an epiphany to realize for yourself that there are certain things that you keep putting off "until the time is right" or "I'm in the mood"... but it never seems to be the right time, and you never are in the mood. Which means either you do it when it seems like the wrong time and you're not in the mood - or you *never* do it.

Good luck, and remember tip one. It's a long-term process becoming a grandmaster, there are times you make fast progress, other times you seem to be stuck on the same level for ages. That's normal, so stick with it.
posted by philipy at 11:19 AM on April 13, 2011


I've known only one person who could do this in real life (a former girlfriend), and she did it so well it was more than a little uncanny.

Of many, one incident stands out in my memory. She was the head of a non-profit and president of the board. When the employee who also acted as secretary at meetings of the board was out of town, my friend asked me to fill in for a board meeting during which she planned to introduce a proposal she thought to the board would be very reluctant to accept.

The night before, over dinner, she regaled me with a little skit in which she made her proposal, then did voice impressions of the responses of several prominent board members, including their responses to each other.

At the meeting in morning, she made her proposal, and the person she had predicted would be first to react did, using a number of the same words and exact phrases she had put in that person's mouth the night before. And the same for the next person and the person after that to a depth of about five responses in.

After that, I was totally worthless as a secretary. It took a lot of effort not to burst out with "Oh my God, how could you possibly have known he/she would say that?" at several points during the course of the meeting.

My girlfriend was not an analytical person. In addition to being an excellent mimic, she was a very gifted dancer (her father refused to let her accept the invitation to attend the school of the American Ballet Theatre on some kind of scholarship she received at age twelve) an accomplished gymnast (a startling series of perfect backflips across the front lawn as we raked up the sycamore leaves the fall of the year we started living together was my first inkling of this) and her mother was a musical prodigy who graduated from a prestigious musical academy at sixteen, but had no interest in a career as a concert pianist.

In short, I think it's a matter of inborn talent for some of the people who are best at it, but that anyone can learn to do it better-- within limits.
posted by jamjam at 1:45 PM on April 13, 2011 [2 favorites]


A few people have mentioned that chess players often follow patterns. I'm not a chess player, so I can't really comment on that, but I'll use it to extend the metaphor anyway. Part of "thinking ahead" is setting yourself up so you don't have to think about every little thing every time the same thing comes up. For example:

Have a 2-story house? Develop a habit of looking around before you go up or down the stairs to see what else you should bring with you.

In charge of the grocery shopping? Keep a list on the fridge and add to it as soon as you realize you're running low on something, so your brain doesn't have to keep track of that tidbit.

Angry about something? Take at least 2 deep breaths and try to mentally argue the other person's point of view before you say anything.

Developing and practicing little rules like this until they are habits will help you "think 2 steps ahead" without really having to explore the entire range of possible outcomes the way a novice chess player apparently does.
posted by vytae at 5:27 PM on April 13, 2011


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