Am I too early or too late?

January 8, 2009 2:43 PM

Is there a "sweet spot" for airfares to Europe? I'd like to take a trip to Paris in April; right now nonstop fares are at about 800-1000 USD. Any chance they'll go down in February? What's the trend on this?
posted by Ollie to Travel & Transportation around Paris, France (20 answers total)

Where are you flying from? This will make a huge difference.

But, assuming you're somewhere in the U.S. -- Midwest, for example -- I'd jump on the $800 flight if I were you. April is getting into the busy season, so prices will be inflated. By May they'll be up to $900+ I bet.

Many airlines don't advertise this fact, but you can often get money back (sometimes in vouchers, but still) if the price of your flight drops after you book it. See here.
posted by nitsuj at 2:57 PM on January 8, 2009

Response by poster: Sorry, I'm in New York.
posted by Ollie at 3:00 PM on January 8, 2009

Also, what day of the week do you want to fly? That makes a big difference, too. Just looking around, out of Chicago, prices are ranging from $650-$1200 in April, depending on time of the month and day of the week. The earlier in the month in the middle of the week (Wed., Thurs, returning on same) is going to be your best bet.

If you're willing to endure a stopover in between, expect better prices.
posted by nitsuj at 3:03 PM on January 8, 2009

Response by poster: It has to be leaving around the 9th and coming back a week or so later... I'd rather not stop over, but it may end up saving a couple of hundred bucks. thanks for your advice!
posted by Ollie at 3:11 PM on January 8, 2009

How much time do you have? Kayak.com shows flights to London in April around $500 (April 23 is absurdly low at $286) and then you can take the Eurostar to Paris for $100. (Not sure how you get from Heathrow/Gatwick to the St Pancras station.)
posted by desjardins at 3:15 PM on January 8, 2009

OK, given your dates, the lowest fare from JFK to Heathrow is $605 on Kuwait Airlines (gah), so you might as well do the $800 to Paris.
posted by desjardins at 3:20 PM on January 8, 2009

Not answering your question, but ITA is good for trying out different dates. $619 if you leave on the 9th with one stopover.

Desjardin has a good approach too.
posted by trig at 3:25 PM on January 8, 2009

Ha. I've flown Kuwait Airlines (twice). It was fine, although both times I had layovers in Kuwait.
posted by Bunglegirl at 3:26 PM on January 8, 2009

You can use yapta.com to ensure that if your flight price goes down, you get your money back.
posted by Maias at 3:30 PM on January 8, 2009

I am looking at something pretty similar. Flying from NYC to Dublin for the first full week in April. It's fluctuated from low $400 to mid $500 for the past couple of weeks, and right now is around $500 even. I think I am going to give it one more week and then buy it; I can't see it getting a whole lot cheaper.

I guess that's not a lot help, but just thought I'd commiserate!
posted by jckll at 4:03 PM on January 8, 2009

Farecast.com does a good job of predicting airfares!
posted by boyinmiami at 4:18 PM on January 8, 2009

if you do decide to wait on purchasing your ticket, or can spare a few days while you make this decision, sign up for a website that will notify you via e-mail when fares go on sale. i signed up for notifications from Airfarewatchdog and Jetblue two weeks ago, thinking it probably wouldn't help much, but it did! i got an e-mail on Tuesday about a cheap fare to Boston, and was able to book it before it sold out!

for what it's worth, i find airfarewatchdog.com and cheapoair.com to be the cheapest/best at notifying...
posted by gursky at 4:19 PM on January 8, 2009

The advice above is great. But also track going into Brussels. I saved hundreds flying into Brussels one time. The Thalys high speed train tickets from Brussels to Paris can be like $30 when purchased in advance. The Thalys train drops you off at the Paris Nord station and you can hop on the Metro to go wherever you're going in Paris.
posted by birdherder at 4:47 PM on January 8, 2009

Last March I flew non-stop to Barcelona in late March from JFK on Delta for $575. I bought the ticket in mid-February.

So I certainly think you can do better. I personally would not pay $800-$1000 for April. Those are high season prices.
posted by smackfu at 4:49 PM on January 8, 2009

By just casually watching the fare specials in the Washington Post, we snagged $199 each way from DC to Dublin for early April (Aer Lingus), and booked pretty cheap flights to Berlin on RyanAir. I think you could get to Paris cheaper than what you've found, but you need to decide if the flight changing/luggage schlepping/occasionally inconvenient schedules are worth the difference.
posted by ersatzkat at 6:24 PM on January 8, 2009

American Airline has cheap fair deals. Go to travelzoo.com and look under Europe every day. Once something good pops up, you should be able to book into Paris or nearby for roughly 600 round trip.
posted by stratastar at 6:28 PM on January 8, 2009

skyscanner.net is showing lots of resonable prices. Does that help, or am I missing something?
posted by Number Used Once at 6:43 PM on January 8, 2009

From New York, you should be able to beat that 800-1000 pretty easily. desjardins has it right: cheap flight to London, then via EuroStar from St. Pancras to Garde Nord. 20 bucks or so via Heathrow Connect to Paddington, then the tube to St. Pancras is one option. Transport for London can give you heaps of options, too, for the interchanges available.

Also, Icelandic Air constantly runs JFK to Europe (Paris included) specials. They're so hard up for dollars right now, they might even let you sit in the pilot's seat.
posted by webhund at 6:57 PM on January 8, 2009

You are flying right into the Easter holiday in Europe, which is a four-day weekend and for which many people take a week's holiday, so I would not expect fares to get any cheaper closer to the day, and I would not expect any out-and-out bargains to be available.

If you take the good advice to fly into nearby cities, sort out your ground transportation early as well. Don't gamble on show-up-and-travel, as you may find most of the intercity connections are already booked up. It's also half-term in the UK, so possibly a lot of the Eurostar bookings will be taken as well.
posted by sagwalla at 5:29 AM on January 9, 2009

Within the UK, prices for walk up tickets and trains (not tube/gatwick express) go up immensely (try $20 for a one way liverpool -> london bought in advance vs >$200 on the day. Seriously).

For these cheap train fairs in advance in the UK use the trainline - also useful for eurostar deals.
posted by lalochezia at 11:59 AM on January 9, 2009