Is Huckabee Nuts?

February 8, 2008 11:51 AM

Does Huckabee have any real chance?

Is it mathamatically possible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination? If so, will it require a brokered convention scenario?

I've been watching the news for a while looking for the answer to this question but it seems like they're speaking more in terms of what's "likely" than anything. In which case I don't blame Huckabee for continuing, considering how consistently wrong the media's been this go around.

posted by superbird to law & government (22 answers total)

No, he has no chance. Many of the upcoming elections are proportional, so if huckabee won 58% of the vote, he'd only get 50% of the delegates. In order to win the nomination, he'd have to win like 90% of the vote.

Interestingly, many of the early contests were not proportional, and if they had been Mitt, and Huckabee would both probably still be in the race. Sucks to be them, I guess.
posted by delmoi at 11:53 AM on February 8, 2008

Mathematically, it's possible, if he wins a bunch of states where he's a big underdog. But there's about a 2.5% probability it'll actually happen.
posted by Dec One at 11:55 AM on February 8, 2008

What happens to delegates that went to Romney? How are they apportioned?
posted by Mister_A at 11:57 AM on February 8, 2008

I should add that the prospect of winning the presidential nomination is not the only reason to stay in the race. Huckabee's southern state wins may have made it more likely John McCain will pick Huckabee as a running mate. Also, having lots of delegates at the convention, even if someone else has the majority, means you get lots of power and attention and a prime-time speaking slot. Or something like that.
posted by Dec One at 12:00 PM on February 8, 2008

Romney keeps his delegates.
posted by Dec One at 12:02 PM on February 8, 2008

I'm pretty sure Huckabee is really running for Vice President at this point.
posted by drezdn at 12:15 PM on February 8, 2008

Romney's delegates -- and Huckabees, too, not to mention He Who Must Not Be Pauled -- don't really matter, because there's every reason to believe that McCain will have a majority of the delegates by the time of the convention. He doesn't have to have unanimity, only a majority, and he will have.
posted by Steven C. Den Beste at 12:18 PM on February 8, 2008 [1 favorite]

not really.
posted by mdn at 12:19 PM on February 8, 2008

("not really" is responding to initial q, not to later comments, as that article says it's nearly mathematically impossible, even tho' McCain is playing nice & not getting uppity about his position etc - pretending to take the "threat" seriously)
posted by mdn at 12:28 PM on February 8, 2008

Huckabee is nuts, and his nuttery includes his nutty belief that there is some reasonable point to him spending more time and energy running for President. He has no chance, though he could mathematically win in an alternate universe where people vote enough for him.

McCain is also nuts, but unfortunately the one and only thing he isn't psychotically delusional about is the likelihood of him becoming the Republican nominee for President. To sum up: Huckabee can't win, they're both nuts, and we're all doomed.
posted by The World Famous at 12:30 PM on February 8, 2008 [4 favorites]

From what I understand, McCain needs about half of the remaining delegates in order to take it outright. I've read some Huckabee supporters suggesting that with Romney out, the Anyone-but-McCain forces might be enough to deny that result, leading to a brokered convention where (once the Romney and other committed delegates are free to vote as they wish) the majority will swing behind Huckabee.

Now, this is just my opinion, but I find that about as likely as the "Al Gore handed the 08 Democrat nomination" scenarios.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 12:32 PM on February 8, 2008

Wow, yeah that's insightful Ghost.

Can anyone back up this possibility?
posted by superbird at 12:39 PM on February 8, 2008

I thouught Huckster was mathematically eliminated already.
posted by Ironmouth at 1:03 PM on February 8, 2008

John Mccain is pushing 73. That's certainly old enough for concern. If McCain falls ill or even dies in the upcoming year, who are they going to nominate?
posted by almostmanda at 1:32 PM on February 8, 2008

John Mccain is pushing 73. That's certainly old enough for concern. If McCain falls ill or even dies in the upcoming year, who are they going to nominate?
posted by almostmanda at 4:32 PM on February 8

Cheney.

Just kidding. They will probably nominate Romney, as Huckabee is reviled by every member of the party who has not voted for him. Most likely, it would be decided at the convention.

And Huckabee has no chance, and he will not be picked for Vice President unless McCain loses his mind. The reason Huckabee is staying in is money - whatever campaign contributions are left at the end of this he keeps, and the free press is great for booking paid speaking engagements (which I think he is still fullfilling during the campaign because he is that short on money).
posted by Pastabagel at 1:47 PM on February 8, 2008

I'm sorry that this doesn't address whether Huckabee has a mathematical chance of winning the nomination. But, I say not a chance in hell after watching this:
posted by fiTs at 1:57 PM on February 8, 2008

McCain could also have a heart attack which would change everything dramatically.
posted by whoda at 2:52 PM on February 8, 2008

I say not a chance in hell after watching this:

I dunno, watch the rest of the show. He gets bush, gore, vilsack & plenty of other well known politicians/celebrities to make fools of themselves. Huckabee's not out for being too dumb. He's out for being too broke, and not having the RNC behind him.
posted by mdn at 3:08 PM on February 8, 2008

I'm sorry that this doesn't address whether Huckabee has a mathematical chance of winning the nomination. But, I say not a chance in hell after watching this:

Huckabee is famous for his sense of humor. If you don't think so, watch this:
posted by thomas144 at 4:10 PM on February 8, 2008

If you can set aside the fact that he earnestly believes that the Earth was created less than 5,000 years ago, the one thing Huck has going for him is that he has far more presence than any of the other current or former GOP candidates.
posted by megatherium at 4:19 PM on February 8, 2008

Huckleberry is done. He no real chance. If there was a god I would thank him.
posted by Slenny at 6:31 PM on February 8, 2008

This points out he only needs to win 51% of the remaining delegates to stop McCain from getting the nomination and forcing a brokered convention.

That doesn't mean the nomination still wouldn't go to McCain, but IF McCain was starting to look bad - for instance, if he had one of his famous angry outburst moments, or some kind of old-guy health issue - then, who knows... basically, it occurred to me that although all the articles are saying "it's impossible" there isn't actually that much direct analysis, and the same way no one thought the Patriots could possible lose until after the game when they remembered they very nearly lost to the Giants during the regular season, I wonder if we aren't making assumptions a little quick, without actually looking at the evidence. After all, McCain was often only getting 40-something% of the vote when it was a 3-way, so if most of Romney were to go to Huckabee... yadda yadda. HOpefully I'm just being neurotic, but -
posted by mdn at 1:42 PM on February 12, 2008