How likely are we to get same-sex marriage in Japan within 60 years?

January 25, 2024 9:59 AM

If I'm 29 and fairly healthy now (probably got about 50-60 years left on the clock, barring a calamity), how good of a shot do I have at seeing some kind of favourable movement toward gay marriage in Japan within my lifetime? Even civil unions. Am I going to run out of time - is it a lost cause? Note that the unregistered partnerships you can get now in some cities don't count because federally they are ignored.

I love the culture, technology and advanced features of Japan very much and would like to visit. However, I'm also a gay man and depressed about the fact that same-sex marriage is not legal there (nationwide) yet because a bunch of guys from the older generation hold so much power in its parliament. I want to go there at some point, either for a vacation or to teach English, but only after either gay marriage or civil unions are legalized - otherwise I'd spend my entire trip fixated on the injustice and I wouldn't really enjoy it.

I assume sooner or later the millennials and Gen Z are going to be the only ones left around to start taking power in parliament once we get into the 2040s and 2050s. And that crowd is overwhelmingly in favor of gay marriage, some say with over 90% support. Even the Liberal Democratic Party (conservatives in power now) are 60% in favor

posted by WillStanwyx to Law & Government (8 answers total)

I don't think it's a culture war issue over there and most people don't really think about it or care about it. So I wouldn't be surprised if it was legalized within the next 10-20 years. Although when you do end up going I'm sure there will still be other forms of injustice that you'll be able to be fixated on (I always get pissed off at the overt racism that means I get stopped by the police almost every time I go back).
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 10:47 AM on January 25 [3 favorites]

It's impossible to extrapolate from one country to another with different culture, institutions, and government, but: When same-sex marriage was legalized in 2015 in the U.S., about 60 percent of Americans supported equal marriage rights. Currently, 68 percent of Japanese do (basically the same as the current 71 percent in the U.S.)
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 12:11 PM on January 25 [5 favorites]

If you didn't live through it, it's hard to understand the speed with which same sex marriage came to pass in the United States. In a small number of years it went from something literally incomprehensible, even to many gay people, to being a well-established and broadly accepted right. It all happened dizzyingly quickly.

You said "sixty years". Well, sixty years ago was before Stonewall. Sixty years ago it was against the law for black people and white people to get married in many parts of the United States.

Japan certainly has a ways to go on gay rights. But things can change very quickly, and it's very hard to predict when or how a change like that might happen, or what things will be like in the mean time.
posted by Winnie the Proust at 1:15 PM on January 25 [19 favorites]

According to this poll, Japan has the highest percentage of citizens who approve same-sex marriage across countries in Asia surveyed, higher than Thailand and Taiwan who have legalized gay marriage already. So, I think it seems possible to be legalized there relatively soon.
posted by bearette at 2:46 PM on January 25 [3 favorites]

Legislation is ongoing in Thailand.
posted by asharchist at 12:37 AM on January 26

The main barrier to marriage equality is the old conservative men controlling the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Once they're gone (which will probably take about another 10 years) change will happen quickly. Or we might get lucky and get a change of government, though that is very unlikely.
posted by mydonkeybenjamin at 3:07 AM on January 26 [1 favorite]

I want to gently push back on the idea that you "love the culture, technology and advanced features of Japan" if you would make your decision to visit based on this one narrow criteria. Their culture is wide and varied across the country just like any other country, but Japan is not just their technology and "advanced features" (whatever you consider those to be). Japan is a great place, but it's not perfect. It's a mixed bag just like anywhere else. HOWEVER, it is generally safe to be gay there, which puts it head and shoulders above other places I'd like to personally visit but cannot for reasons of physical safety.

I've been back and forth to Japan quite a bit, living there as both a child and an adult for periods between 6 months and 2 years. I found their stance on queerness generally to be neutral. Lots of curiosity, but nothing ever felt dangerous or hostile. (Part of this, I realize, is that I'm Japanese American and I look like them, but I'm very much treated like a foreigner once I open my mouth.) I'm much less worried about being openly queer in Japan vs doing the same in Florida where my marriage is recognized but...well, c'mon.

Japan has a thriving queer community, pride events, and the bigger cities will have gay districts just like your major cities everywhere. It's somewhat "easy" to be foreign and gay because I think it's just treated as part of your foreign-ness. Racism is the real problem in Japan that I'd love to see the younger generation tackle. That's really the thing that will stick out to you if you visit.

Obviously YMMV, but way back in 2000 I worked teaching English in Japan and I and several of my local JET friends were out and working and it was fine. Living and working there, I got to meet the local gay community even in our small cities. It was much more difficult for me to be an employee in Japan than it was to be queer in Japan.
posted by komlord at 2:39 PM on January 26 [3 favorites]

If you haven't read it yet, Wikipedia's article on same sex unions in Japan has a good set of references on court cases, public opinion, etc.

A March–April 2023 Kyodo News survey showed that 71% of Japanese people supported same-sex marriage, while 26% were opposed. Support was highest among respondents below the age of 30, at 85%. 62% of LDP voters also supported same-sex marriage.

I can't predict Japanese politics and 60 years is a very long time, but I'd guess that will change but only in the context of larger Japanese political shifts. There's been a lot of pressure in the courts and a significant majority supports gay marriage, it seems inevitable.

I'm a gay traveller myself and I'd encourage you to consider visiting Japan before that milestone. I've definitely got my political limits but I draw my line at places that actively oppress gay people.
posted by Nelson at 6:47 AM on January 28