political trajectory of ME, NH
February 2, 2023 11:36 AM
Which state is headed in a more progressive direction politically, New Hampshire or Maine?
I'm considering both of these states as places to live. On paper, by the numbers, they look exceedingly similar in terms of electoral politics. But I know all states have their own unique trajectory and political culture. For example, Maine recently swung between a proto-Trump MAGA governor and a Democrat, whereas NH has remained consistently under governance by a (putatively) more moderate traditional New England-style Republican. Maine is also (by the numbers) predominantly rural, whereas NH is predominantly "urban" (really suburban).
I'm not asking about areas to live that are or aren't more or less conservative; I know that each of these states have places that are both quite liberal and quite conservative. I'm wondering about what direction things appear to be going on the state and bigger-picture demographic level, especially as a queer person. (Also please don't tell me to live in Massachusetts or Vermont instead, I am well aware that those states exist and that is not what this question is about.)
I'm considering both of these states as places to live. On paper, by the numbers, they look exceedingly similar in terms of electoral politics. But I know all states have their own unique trajectory and political culture. For example, Maine recently swung between a proto-Trump MAGA governor and a Democrat, whereas NH has remained consistently under governance by a (putatively) more moderate traditional New England-style Republican. Maine is also (by the numbers) predominantly rural, whereas NH is predominantly "urban" (really suburban).
I'm not asking about areas to live that are or aren't more or less conservative; I know that each of these states have places that are both quite liberal and quite conservative. I'm wondering about what direction things appear to be going on the state and bigger-picture demographic level, especially as a queer person. (Also please don't tell me to live in Massachusetts or Vermont instead, I am well aware that those states exist and that is not what this question is about.)
It's difficult to say other than to note that the most-"blue" parts of each state (Southern NH and Southern ME) are also their most populous and fastest-growing regions and just happen to be within driving distance of jobs in the metro-Boston area.
It's probably safe to say that both states are on a progressive trajectory, but the speed at which they get there depends on how successful the more rural parts of each state are at gerrymandering political power and gatekeeping local culture and identity as it applies to campaigning ("true" Maine/New Hampshire residents vs people who came from Massachusetts for the lower housing prices)
posted by RonButNotStupid at 11:53 AM on February 2, 2023
It's probably safe to say that both states are on a progressive trajectory, but the speed at which they get there depends on how successful the more rural parts of each state are at gerrymandering political power and gatekeeping local culture and identity as it applies to campaigning ("true" Maine/New Hampshire residents vs people who came from Massachusetts for the lower housing prices)
posted by RonButNotStupid at 11:53 AM on February 2, 2023
whereas NH is predominantly "urban" (really suburban)
None of the above. The vast majority of the state is extremely rural, even the parts that are comparatively populous. I suppose you could get away with calling Manchester a city, but I live in Nashua (the second-biggest city), and it is only urban if you're using that as a code word for "a few nonwhite people live there" (which is absolutely a thing that people in NH do - check out the city-data.com forums). Because, while a few nonwhite people do in fact live here, this is a small town with small town amenities. There are some places on the Seacoast that don't feel like tiny towns, but if you're expecting any sort of city amenities (and I'm referring to basics like municipal sewer or trash pickup), you won't find them in most places. Most of the state takes their garbage to the dump themselves, in the trunk of their car (or, more likely, in the bed of their extremely large F-17373473750 pickup truck). In terms of urban/rural, I'd compare NH to something like the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, or maybe Mississippi.
The above might give you a clue as to the political leanings of much of the state, which are rather more right-wing than you might expect. But with regard to NH, the traditional left-right spectrum isn't particularly useful. The dominant ideology here is libertarianism. While that has recently come to be associated with right-wing economic policy, there's a pretty strong social component, and both strands are alive here. So if you're asking about corporate taxation, NH is not likely to become particularly progressive. But if you're asking about looming Christofascism, that's also pretty unlikely. There are well-attended and uncontroversial Pride events even in fairly small towns. (This is also why people have to take their own garbage to the dump - because we don't want the gub'mint to do it for us.)
I was talking with a friend about Governor Sununu the other day, and she joked that the reason for his success is because all the crazies on either side of the spectrum cancel each other out and he's the only one left standing. Personally, though, if that were my deciding factor on choosing a place to live, I wouldn't count on that continuing. Sununu excepted, the rest of the Republican party here has gone full Trump, with the usual Fox News talking (or screaming, as the case may be) points. The last Senate election went hard on the litterboxes-in-schools issue, for example - when the principal of one of the schools accused of providing litterboxes denied the allegation, the Senate candidate explicitly accused him of lying and demanded a public tour of the school.
I don't know Maine as well, and I'm sure they have their things, but when I've visited there, it hasn't been as in-your-face hostile conservative as NH. Maybe that's because I generally tend to spend my time in Maine in the York-Portland area, but again, I live in one of the areas of NH that's supposed to be "more progressive", too.
posted by kevinbelt at 12:05 PM on February 2, 2023
None of the above. The vast majority of the state is extremely rural, even the parts that are comparatively populous. I suppose you could get away with calling Manchester a city, but I live in Nashua (the second-biggest city), and it is only urban if you're using that as a code word for "a few nonwhite people live there" (which is absolutely a thing that people in NH do - check out the city-data.com forums). Because, while a few nonwhite people do in fact live here, this is a small town with small town amenities. There are some places on the Seacoast that don't feel like tiny towns, but if you're expecting any sort of city amenities (and I'm referring to basics like municipal sewer or trash pickup), you won't find them in most places. Most of the state takes their garbage to the dump themselves, in the trunk of their car (or, more likely, in the bed of their extremely large F-17373473750 pickup truck). In terms of urban/rural, I'd compare NH to something like the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, or maybe Mississippi.
The above might give you a clue as to the political leanings of much of the state, which are rather more right-wing than you might expect. But with regard to NH, the traditional left-right spectrum isn't particularly useful. The dominant ideology here is libertarianism. While that has recently come to be associated with right-wing economic policy, there's a pretty strong social component, and both strands are alive here. So if you're asking about corporate taxation, NH is not likely to become particularly progressive. But if you're asking about looming Christofascism, that's also pretty unlikely. There are well-attended and uncontroversial Pride events even in fairly small towns. (This is also why people have to take their own garbage to the dump - because we don't want the gub'mint to do it for us.)
I was talking with a friend about Governor Sununu the other day, and she joked that the reason for his success is because all the crazies on either side of the spectrum cancel each other out and he's the only one left standing. Personally, though, if that were my deciding factor on choosing a place to live, I wouldn't count on that continuing. Sununu excepted, the rest of the Republican party here has gone full Trump, with the usual Fox News talking (or screaming, as the case may be) points. The last Senate election went hard on the litterboxes-in-schools issue, for example - when the principal of one of the schools accused of providing litterboxes denied the allegation, the Senate candidate explicitly accused him of lying and demanded a public tour of the school.
I don't know Maine as well, and I'm sure they have their things, but when I've visited there, it hasn't been as in-your-face hostile conservative as NH. Maybe that's because I generally tend to spend my time in Maine in the York-Portland area, but again, I live in one of the areas of NH that's supposed to be "more progressive", too.
posted by kevinbelt at 12:05 PM on February 2, 2023
I agree with kevinbelt. There are some weird pockets where Libertarians have taken over, but the general level of Red State-ness there is pretty high. No love of outsiders, especially Massholes who move north for cheaper houses.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:33 PM on February 2, 2023
posted by wenestvedt at 12:33 PM on February 2, 2023
Yeah, to echo kevinbelt, New Hampshire is weird/unique politically, in many ways; I'm writing from the Seacoast area, which is another very blue part of the state; this area is becoming increasingly diverse. (Note that this means like, overall population is now 87% white instead of 95%, with the schools being 80% white.)
Sununu is...mostly sane, but one big issue is schooling and what's going on there. Frank Edelblut is the education commissioner, and there's been some really really bad pushes from his office (we had a "divisive concepts" law pass, there were attacks on teachers last year, there's more money going to private schools/home schooling in the form of "freedom accounts"). The state is not going down like, Florida levels of right wing control, but it's worrisome.
But, NH really does take "live free or die" seriously, which, at least where I am, includes gender and sexuality. We've got the Moms for Liberty types showing up and trying to ban books but when they tried to run for school board here last year, they lost in landslides and have generally been out numbered at meetings, etc. We've got a lot of out LGBT+ folks in state and local government, including the first out trans man elected to a state house. NH is also one of the most atheist states as well, so you're not getting Christofascism, as noted by kevinbelt. The Proud Boy types are around, they do show up, but they generally get shouted down pretty loudly when they do. And yes, Bolduc's (R) senate campaign was not great (litter boxes, as noted above; stolen election conspiracy, etc.) but Hassan (D) won pretty handily.
Live Free or Die includes taxes. NH has no state income or sales tax which means that your governmental services are pretty much dependent on local property taxes. The anti-tax attitude includes Democrats at the state and local level--every one running for governor takes The Pledge. My city--a very, very Democratic city!--has a tax cap, which sets an (over rideable) limit on how much the budget can be raised. If your vision of "progressive" includes "the government provides a range of social welfare services", that's not going to happen in NH any time soon.
posted by damayanti at 12:34 PM on February 2, 2023
Sununu is...mostly sane, but one big issue is schooling and what's going on there. Frank Edelblut is the education commissioner, and there's been some really really bad pushes from his office (we had a "divisive concepts" law pass, there were attacks on teachers last year, there's more money going to private schools/home schooling in the form of "freedom accounts"). The state is not going down like, Florida levels of right wing control, but it's worrisome.
But, NH really does take "live free or die" seriously, which, at least where I am, includes gender and sexuality. We've got the Moms for Liberty types showing up and trying to ban books but when they tried to run for school board here last year, they lost in landslides and have generally been out numbered at meetings, etc. We've got a lot of out LGBT+ folks in state and local government, including the first out trans man elected to a state house. NH is also one of the most atheist states as well, so you're not getting Christofascism, as noted by kevinbelt. The Proud Boy types are around, they do show up, but they generally get shouted down pretty loudly when they do. And yes, Bolduc's (R) senate campaign was not great (litter boxes, as noted above; stolen election conspiracy, etc.) but Hassan (D) won pretty handily.
Live Free or Die includes taxes. NH has no state income or sales tax which means that your governmental services are pretty much dependent on local property taxes. The anti-tax attitude includes Democrats at the state and local level--every one running for governor takes The Pledge. My city--a very, very Democratic city!--has a tax cap, which sets an (over rideable) limit on how much the budget can be raised. If your vision of "progressive" includes "the government provides a range of social welfare services", that's not going to happen in NH any time soon.
posted by damayanti at 12:34 PM on February 2, 2023
Worth mentioning: New Hampshire's house representation is ridiculous. There are 400 legislators, an absurd number for a state as low-population as New Hampshire. The average constituency has fewer than 3500 people, which is getting you into the sort of district size where you can win an election by waking up one morning, deciding you want to win an election, and getting your friends to tell all their friends to tell all their friends to vote for you. This has upsides: as damayanti points out, they've been ahead of the curve in trans representation. But it also means every nutbar who can put together a halfway decent grassroots campaign is also in the statehouse. Long before the US Congress was graced with the likes of Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert, their doppelgangers were hanging out in Concord making everyone there miserable.
posted by jackbishop at 12:58 PM on February 2, 2023
posted by jackbishop at 12:58 PM on February 2, 2023
I know nothing about NH, but I do have friends who live in ME with their young (early elementary school age) child. They’re very liberal and explained their rationale for staying (reflecting substantial optimism about the progressive trajectory of the state) as follows:
Maine is very rural
Maine is very white
Maine is very old
Maine is very poor
Old, rural, poor white people tend to die relatively young
The Portland metro area, more progressive than Maine as a whole, already represents something like 40% of the state’s population
As poor old white rural Mainers die, probably faster than they would have died if more of them were richer and/or more urban and/or less white, southern Maine/metro Portland will continue to attract the lion’s share of newcomers to Maine, will thrive, and will be a harbinger of a more progressive future.
Seems plausible to me, but obviously it’s rather oversimplified and doesn’t address the NH side of your question.
posted by cheapskatebay at 1:49 PM on February 2, 2023
Maine is very rural
Maine is very white
Maine is very old
Maine is very poor
Old, rural, poor white people tend to die relatively young
The Portland metro area, more progressive than Maine as a whole, already represents something like 40% of the state’s population
As poor old white rural Mainers die, probably faster than they would have died if more of them were richer and/or more urban and/or less white, southern Maine/metro Portland will continue to attract the lion’s share of newcomers to Maine, will thrive, and will be a harbinger of a more progressive future.
Seems plausible to me, but obviously it’s rather oversimplified and doesn’t address the NH side of your question.
posted by cheapskatebay at 1:49 PM on February 2, 2023
Although both states are extremely white, Maine seems to be cultivating a welcoming attitude toward immigrants and refugees. That's a stated priority of the current governor and at least some localities have gravitated to it as a repopulation strategy. Lewiston, for example, has a significant Somali population.
posted by veery at 3:45 PM on February 2, 2023
posted by veery at 3:45 PM on February 2, 2023
I've always described Maine politically as a cross between the hippy liberalism of Vermont and the libertarian conservatism of New Hampshire, for whatever that's worth.
Two things to consider: a) because New Hampshire has no state income tax, it attracts the type of transplants that value having no income tax (and then must make up its state budget in other ways) and b) Maine has a very strong tradition of direct democracy, including strong and often used provisions for citizen petitions getting onto the state ballot, a tradition which has led, in recent memory, to the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana, as well as our ranked-choice voting system (which survived several ballot challenges).
posted by radiogreentea at 4:14 PM on February 2, 2023
Two things to consider: a) because New Hampshire has no state income tax, it attracts the type of transplants that value having no income tax (and then must make up its state budget in other ways) and b) Maine has a very strong tradition of direct democracy, including strong and often used provisions for citizen petitions getting onto the state ballot, a tradition which has led, in recent memory, to the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana, as well as our ranked-choice voting system (which survived several ballot challenges).
posted by radiogreentea at 4:14 PM on February 2, 2023
There's not an organized program of libertarian dinguses trying to get each other to move en masse to Maine and remake its politics. Link goes to 2020 post about the bear-feeding idiot town.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:33 AM on February 3, 2023
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:33 AM on February 3, 2023
NH's legislature is a real issue. Simply put, it's not very professional. I also was frustrated when I lived there simply knowing that the state barely supports public kindergarten - does not fully fund it, and many communities can only offer PT kindergarten. To me, that signalled a resistance to investing in education that was offputting. My experience living in the Portsmouth area was one of great comfort in a highly progressive bubble in a larger state that did not have its act together politically. And yes, the libertarian cells did cause consternation. All in all I'd go Maine.
posted by Miko at 6:45 AM on February 3, 2023
posted by Miko at 6:45 AM on February 3, 2023
Some random thoughts as a NH-born, southern-Maine-living progressive type:
~ Maine is very split along north/south (which also means more urban/rural) lines. Trump signs are common on country roads, but the larger towns are mostly pretty darn blue.
~ As others mentioned, Maine has been welcoming a lot of immigrants and asylum seekers in recent years, and recently elected two Somali-American legislators (one of whom was the first African-born mayor in America, too). This doesn't mean that those communities of new Mainers are progressive, of course.
~ Maine also has an all-volunteer legislature, which leads to some weirdness. I don't think it's anywhere near as weird as NH, though.
~ As GCU Sweet and Full of Grace said, Maine doesn't have a "Free State" movement of any note.
~ I am optimistic about Maine's political trajectory, but I also think things will move relatively slowly. Our experience with a huge fucking shithead for a governor resulted in an easy victory for our current Dem governor, who I think is generally doing a good job balancing things like strong support for reproductive rights against the pressures from the right end of the spectrum.
posted by that's candlepin at 7:40 AM on February 3, 2023
~ Maine is very split along north/south (which also means more urban/rural) lines. Trump signs are common on country roads, but the larger towns are mostly pretty darn blue.
~ As others mentioned, Maine has been welcoming a lot of immigrants and asylum seekers in recent years, and recently elected two Somali-American legislators (one of whom was the first African-born mayor in America, too). This doesn't mean that those communities of new Mainers are progressive, of course.
~ Maine also has an all-volunteer legislature, which leads to some weirdness. I don't think it's anywhere near as weird as NH, though.
~ As GCU Sweet and Full of Grace said, Maine doesn't have a "Free State" movement of any note.
~ I am optimistic about Maine's political trajectory, but I also think things will move relatively slowly. Our experience with a huge fucking shithead for a governor resulted in an easy victory for our current Dem governor, who I think is generally doing a good job balancing things like strong support for reproductive rights against the pressures from the right end of the spectrum.
posted by that's candlepin at 7:40 AM on February 3, 2023
In NH's defense, the Free State Project isn't actually much of a thing. Last time I looked a couple of months ago, only like 6,000 self-identified Free Staters had moved here, despite like 30,000 pledges to do so. Like most libertarian activity, it's a lot of talk online and not much else. To the extent that there's libertarian lunacy, it's mostly homegrown, not out of staters moving here to make us loonier.
posted by kevinbelt at 8:24 AM on February 3, 2023
posted by kevinbelt at 8:24 AM on February 3, 2023
Perhaps this might help you for Maine? It's the historical party balance in the state legislature.
posted by JanetLand at 11:51 AM on February 3, 2023
posted by JanetLand at 11:51 AM on February 3, 2023
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I'm sure you're thinking about trying to live in a place where new laws and policies are more likely to align with your opinions and beliefs, but one thing I love about New Hampshire, in particular, is that politics stays out of people's everyday lives pretty well.
For reference, I currently live in Keene, NH, a liberal haven. I used to live in the White Mountains, which is very rural. As soon as you get out into the country anywhere in NH, you'll see lots of Trump signs, and we have our VERY vocal insane-conservative state congresspeople, but for the most part, they're not dictating the agenda. I don't have a strong sense that this is likely to change, but who knows? (Further context on my perspective: I am not a native New Englander, and spent my young adulthood in large East Coast cities.)
New Hampshire does have a high-quality public-interest journalism website: InDepthNH.org. Maybe spending some time reading some of the articles (particularly about the goings on in the State House) would be helpful?
posted by nosila at 11:46 AM on February 2, 2023