What are the races to watch and fund in the US?
May 10, 2022 8:56 PM Subscribe
What are the democratic races to watch and put some money towards in the US this year for the midterms?
My particular concerns are abortion access, voting rights and general anti-cheetoh.
My particular concerns are abortion access, voting rights and general anti-cheetoh.
Best answer: Cuellar is genuinely a piece of shit, not only for his views but for stuff he’s done — this, among other things. He's absolutely where I’d focus my money right now. If he wins, it’ll be a very bad sign.
posted by holborne at 9:47 PM on May 10, 2022
posted by holborne at 9:47 PM on May 10, 2022
Consider the Movement Voter Project (Naomi Kritzer's reasoning).
posted by brainwane at 3:06 AM on May 11, 2022
posted by brainwane at 3:06 AM on May 11, 2022
Best answer: This is a boring answer, but you might give your money to Democratic organizations that are focused on voting rights (like e.g. Stacey Abrams' Fair Fight) and reproductive justice (like e.g. NARAL Pro-Choice America. This isn't donating to individual races, but the professionals who work for these organizations will do their best to spend your money where it will do the most good (and they might be slightly less likely to share your email address with a dozen other campaigns).
posted by box at 4:59 AM on May 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by box at 4:59 AM on May 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Best answer: A few general notes:
Only about 5% of House seats are competitive, unless there's some kind of huge wave. Related to this, only about 1 of 4 House races ever get any sort of public polling, so it's tough to see what's happening unless you follow local politics.
Based on partisan ratings, these seats are competitive after redistricting. This doesn't take into account incumbents, candidate positions, etc., so you might want to do more research:
AZ 4
CA 40, 45
CO 8
GA 2
IL 17
IA 1, 3
MD 6
MI 3, 7, 8
NE 2
NV 1, 3, 4
NJ 7
NM 2, 3
NC 1, 13
OH 1, 13
OR 5
PA 1, 7, 17
TX 15
Above is all about the general, not primary races.
In the Senate, PA, OH, NC, and especially WI are worth watching for Democratic pickup opportunities. Seats that Democrats need to hold include AZ, GA, NV, NH. Polling for Senate races in 2020 was spectacularly bad, so the reality on the ground may be difficult to tell from a distance.
Governor races to watch: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
It's still slightly early, with some primaries pending, and a few outstanding redistricting issues still pending.
My personal take: any effort to vote out the odious Ron Johnson in Wisconsin is worthwhile, and he's vulnerable. The D primary won't be until August. Mandela Barnes is the D frontrunner right now, and is running even with Johnson in head-to-head polling (acknowledging that polling has been really lousy recently).
posted by gimonca at 5:08 AM on May 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Only about 5% of House seats are competitive, unless there's some kind of huge wave. Related to this, only about 1 of 4 House races ever get any sort of public polling, so it's tough to see what's happening unless you follow local politics.
Based on partisan ratings, these seats are competitive after redistricting. This doesn't take into account incumbents, candidate positions, etc., so you might want to do more research:
AZ 4
CA 40, 45
CO 8
GA 2
IL 17
IA 1, 3
MD 6
MI 3, 7, 8
NE 2
NV 1, 3, 4
NJ 7
NM 2, 3
NC 1, 13
OH 1, 13
OR 5
PA 1, 7, 17
TX 15
Above is all about the general, not primary races.
In the Senate, PA, OH, NC, and especially WI are worth watching for Democratic pickup opportunities. Seats that Democrats need to hold include AZ, GA, NV, NH. Polling for Senate races in 2020 was spectacularly bad, so the reality on the ground may be difficult to tell from a distance.
Governor races to watch: AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
It's still slightly early, with some primaries pending, and a few outstanding redistricting issues still pending.
My personal take: any effort to vote out the odious Ron Johnson in Wisconsin is worthwhile, and he's vulnerable. The D primary won't be until August. Mandela Barnes is the D frontrunner right now, and is running even with Johnson in head-to-head polling (acknowledging that polling has been really lousy recently).
posted by gimonca at 5:08 AM on May 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Best answer: NC-13 is a possible Democratic pickup with the Republican incumbent running for Senate and a big swing left due to redistricting. Primaries are next week, but both of the Dem frontrunners are potential winners in the general.
posted by Rock Steady at 7:08 AM on May 11, 2022
posted by Rock Steady at 7:08 AM on May 11, 2022
Best answer: The Ohio Senate race will be of interest, Tim Ryan is running against author (and Trump's new BFF) JD Vance. If Ryan won, Ohio would have two Democratic senators while the entire state government is Republican. The governor's race in Ohio isn't worth any Democrat's time to be honest.
posted by greatalleycat at 7:28 AM on May 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by greatalleycat at 7:28 AM on May 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Democratic House Rep Anthony Delgado (NY-19) was just tapped as Lieutenant Governor by former LG (now Governor) Kathy Hochul (who replaced Andrew Cuomo after his resignation). Delgado won his House seat in a squeaker in 2018 and the 2022 election for this district is shaping up to be competitive without an incumbent running anymore.
posted by letourneau at 8:10 AM on May 11, 2022
posted by letourneau at 8:10 AM on May 11, 2022
New York still doesn't have a new congressional map, though. Expected by May 20.
posted by Conrad Cornelius o'Donald o'Dell at 8:18 AM on May 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Conrad Cornelius o'Donald o'Dell at 8:18 AM on May 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
If you can afford the time and energy, then there may be more impactful and rewarding ways to get involved than throwing money at ActBlue (which I do, to be clear!)
And generally speaking, despite the deranged tone of fundraising emails, right in the middle of primary season is not the best time to donate (it's both too late and too early).
That said, I generally defer to Primary School for advice on the specifics of where to send money. They're focused on elections and results rather than campaigns right now because it's still primary season. But once that settles down they should post some good advice.
And for state-level races, which are arguably more important, and where money goes a lot further, I follow the advice of Give Smart from the States Project (which is also waiting for primary season to settle down).
posted by caek at 11:51 AM on May 11, 2022
And generally speaking, despite the deranged tone of fundraising emails, right in the middle of primary season is not the best time to donate (it's both too late and too early).
That said, I generally defer to Primary School for advice on the specifics of where to send money. They're focused on elections and results rather than campaigns right now because it's still primary season. But once that settles down they should post some good advice.
And for state-level races, which are arguably more important, and where money goes a lot further, I follow the advice of Give Smart from the States Project (which is also waiting for primary season to settle down).
posted by caek at 11:51 AM on May 11, 2022
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You are maybe looking to support Democrats running against Republicans (and I will be too soon) but this is the race I’m watching now!
posted by stellaluna at 9:18 PM on May 10, 2022 [5 favorites]