Replacement for fivethirtyeight.com U.S. House/Senate forecast data?
September 16, 2020 6:52 PM Subscribe
For the 2018 U.S. midterm elections I used (I think) fivethirtyeight.com as a starting point for research on House/Senate elections to target donations. The site that I used had certain characteristics: it covered House/Senate/Governorships, it was easy to find close races and how close they were / how they leaned, and it was based on a broad bi-partisan aggregation of polling and statistical information rather than coming from a single organization. I thought that it was fivethirtyeight, but I don't see it there this time. Does anyone have a good site that fits these criteria?
It's not as easy to use, but they are still tracking polls here. You can use the drop down to filter by Senate, Governor, etc. The bottom gives you csv files for your own data munging if you wanted to do that.
posted by advicepig at 7:06 PM on September 16, 2020
posted by advicepig at 7:06 PM on September 16, 2020
fivethirtyeight has definitely done this in the past; if they're planning on rolling it out this year they haven't yet.
They do aggregate Senate polls, as does RealClearPolitics.
The Princeton Election Consortium has a Senate model.
posted by madcaptenor at 7:07 PM on September 16, 2020
They do aggregate Senate polls, as does RealClearPolitics.
The Princeton Election Consortium has a Senate model.
posted by madcaptenor at 7:07 PM on September 16, 2020
I think that Nate Silver said on the podcast that they’re not planning to do governor’s races this year, but he has been talking about working on the House & Senate models.
posted by Johnny Assay at 8:07 PM on September 16, 2020
posted by Johnny Assay at 8:07 PM on September 16, 2020
I am still deeply disapointed in 538, and I think a major failing of many of these election models is they fail to anticipate Republicans cheating, and how that might unfold.
I am considering paying the 35$ a month for the Cook Political Report.
posted by zenon at 8:35 PM on September 16, 2020
I am considering paying the 35$ a month for the Cook Political Report.
posted by zenon at 8:35 PM on September 16, 2020
As said, 538 is working on this for senate and house, but haven't released a timeline. I think it's unfortunate that people have had a hard time understanding their stuff. Anyways, Maciej Ceglowski has I think an interesting/useful practical look at effective campaign funding; a key point is to give now, not later.
posted by Superilla at 10:08 PM on September 16, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by Superilla at 10:08 PM on September 16, 2020 [3 favorites]
Could it have been 270towin?
Lists the various races you mention, and lets you toggle near bottom-right (“reset map” actually reveals a drop down menu) between different polling/data maps (like 538, Cook Report, previous election years, and PredictIt, to name but a few).
posted by armeowda at 11:28 PM on September 16, 2020
Lists the various races you mention, and lets you toggle near bottom-right (“reset map” actually reveals a drop down menu) between different polling/data maps (like 538, Cook Report, previous election years, and PredictIt, to name but a few).
posted by armeowda at 11:28 PM on September 16, 2020
I think this site does a really good job of analyzing and presenting the odds for Prez, Senate and House races.
posted by RandlePatrickMcMurphy at 5:33 AM on September 17, 2020
posted by RandlePatrickMcMurphy at 5:33 AM on September 17, 2020
I use the Cook Report for this. They are an old and trusted non-partisan source. You don't have to pay to see the basic rankings. Here's all 35 Senate races and the 91 close House races. You only need to pay if you want more detailed analysis.
For a free source of detail; Ballotpedia synthesizes many sources on how close a race is. I don't know how to see it in aggregate but if you drill into the 2020 election page for any district, you'll find info. For instance: CA-21, where TJ Cox is in a close race. If you click through you'll find not just the Cook report but also Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Also fundraising data and sometimes other things germane, like if any polling data exists.
(To state something maybe not obvious; there's almost never public polling for House races and there's seldom public polling for Senate races. To the extent there is any poll data, Ballotpedia is likely to have it.)
posted by Nelson at 7:54 AM on September 17, 2020
For a free source of detail; Ballotpedia synthesizes many sources on how close a race is. I don't know how to see it in aggregate but if you drill into the 2020 election page for any district, you'll find info. For instance: CA-21, where TJ Cox is in a close race. If you click through you'll find not just the Cook report but also Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Also fundraising data and sometimes other things germane, like if any polling data exists.
(To state something maybe not obvious; there's almost never public polling for House races and there's seldom public polling for Senate races. To the extent there is any poll data, Ballotpedia is likely to have it.)
posted by Nelson at 7:54 AM on September 17, 2020
Fivethirtyeight’s Senate model launches Friday, September 18.
posted by madcaptenor at 4:00 PM on September 17, 2020
posted by madcaptenor at 4:00 PM on September 17, 2020
...and here you go. No House model, though; not sure if/when we're getting one.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:47 AM on September 18, 2020
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:47 AM on September 18, 2020
On today's podcast, Nate Silver said that the House model is "98% done" and will be released "relatively soon".
posted by Johnny Assay at 1:00 PM on September 18, 2020
posted by Johnny Assay at 1:00 PM on September 18, 2020
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Electoral-vote.com also has a Senate map.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:03 PM on September 16, 2020