How to design a bet?
April 3, 2015 11:44 AM Subscribe
Hello!
I read a history of my hometown and in the 1920s they would have a bet on which day the ice would crack on the lake every spring with half of the proceeds going to charity and half to the winner. I would like to do something similar in my city regarding the first day the temperature rose over 100 degrees.
I would love suggestions for design and particularly cheap ways to receive the bets. I would like it to be bigger than my friends group, anyone in the city can participate.
Some questions:
- Is there a website set up for this kind of thing?
- Should the day be first come first serve? It's not like the day can be divided into blocks, but the afternoon can maybe be divided into 15-30 minute blocks.
-What should the stake be? I think between$5 - $20. Any thoughts on bet size, which makes the most money for the charity?
-Best weather sites to use to determine a day over 100 degrees? I realize that it would have to be designated in the text of the bet.
-How to pay out?
-Any other advice?
I would love suggestions for design and particularly cheap ways to receive the bets. I would like it to be bigger than my friends group, anyone in the city can participate.
Some questions:
- Is there a website set up for this kind of thing?
- Should the day be first come first serve? It's not like the day can be divided into blocks, but the afternoon can maybe be divided into 15-30 minute blocks.
-What should the stake be? I think between$5 - $20. Any thoughts on bet size, which makes the most money for the charity?
-Best weather sites to use to determine a day over 100 degrees? I realize that it would have to be designated in the text of the bet.
-How to pay out?
-Any other advice?
The National Weather Service and the nearest official weather station would be the website to use as they are the official agency tasked with tracking the weather. Most websites that provide weather data are actually providing the NWS's data either solely or mixed in with their data. The data they provide are through trained weather spotters or ASOS (automated stations), so you might pick the nearest ASOS.
Depending on your jurisdiction, the word "bet" and other terminology might be affected by gambling laws. You might want to look into what you're legally allowed to say and how to structure it.
And just as aside, the amount of money really depends on the charity and what people's "return on investment" might be. As someone who's participated in those kind of events, part of the fun with the crack in the ice or the barrel falling through is because there are visual reminders of what could happen, i.e. a person could drive by and see the ice everyday; argue about it at the grocery store; watch the barrel start sinking, etc., and that excitement is part of the "investment". So in that spirit some kind of observable symbol - maybe outside the charity? - to drum up excitement and PR might be worth considering.
posted by barchan at 12:12 PM on April 3, 2015
Depending on your jurisdiction, the word "bet" and other terminology might be affected by gambling laws. You might want to look into what you're legally allowed to say and how to structure it.
And just as aside, the amount of money really depends on the charity and what people's "return on investment" might be. As someone who's participated in those kind of events, part of the fun with the crack in the ice or the barrel falling through is because there are visual reminders of what could happen, i.e. a person could drive by and see the ice everyday; argue about it at the grocery store; watch the barrel start sinking, etc., and that excitement is part of the "investment". So in that spirit some kind of observable symbol - maybe outside the charity? - to drum up excitement and PR might be worth considering.
posted by barchan at 12:12 PM on April 3, 2015
Best answer: You could do up-to-the-minute guesses, but you'd need to specify where and how you're measuring. Actually, you'll probably need to do that even if you register by day.
The Nenana Ice Classic (PDF link) has been around for years. They put a tripod on the ice tied to a clock. When the ice breaks and tripod tips, it stops the clock and that is the official time. They charge $2.50 per guess. Since they accept guesses by mail and enter them manually, I'm guessing that multiple people can guess the same time and that multiple correct guesses split the winnings (like a lottery).
A lower price will encourage people to guess multiple times.
You'll also need a plan just in case the temperature doesn't reach 100. Does the time/date of the highest temperature win or does all the money go to charity?
As for collecting money and paying out, IANAL or an accountant, but you'd probably be best consulting one in your area. If this is for a specific charity, maybe you can work with theirs.
posted by cmerrill at 12:13 PM on April 3, 2015
The Nenana Ice Classic (PDF link) has been around for years. They put a tripod on the ice tied to a clock. When the ice breaks and tripod tips, it stops the clock and that is the official time. They charge $2.50 per guess. Since they accept guesses by mail and enter them manually, I'm guessing that multiple people can guess the same time and that multiple correct guesses split the winnings (like a lottery).
A lower price will encourage people to guess multiple times.
You'll also need a plan just in case the temperature doesn't reach 100. Does the time/date of the highest temperature win or does all the money go to charity?
As for collecting money and paying out, IANAL or an accountant, but you'd probably be best consulting one in your area. If this is for a specific charity, maybe you can work with theirs.
posted by cmerrill at 12:13 PM on April 3, 2015
Oh, hey, I was going to link to the Nenana Ice Classic, too. They've got a lot of information about how the thing is structured. My recollection is that indeed, if more than one person correctly guesses the minute the tripod goes, they split the pot. (Hey, I can still buy a ticket!)
posted by leahwrenn at 12:34 PM on April 3, 2015
posted by leahwrenn at 12:34 PM on April 3, 2015
Should the day be first come first serve? It's not like the day can be divided into blocks, but the afternoon can maybe be divided into 15-30 minute blocks.
My two cents, if you're going to do this right: anyone should be able to guess any time. Maybe 15 minute blocks. Ideally, you'd have a thermometer rigged to an alert, so that a clock is stopped when the thermometer registers the temperature you want, and the nearest guess(es) split the half of the pot that's not going to charity.
Agreed that you need a plan for if the temp doesn't get to 100 °,unless you're some place like Phoenix where you're guaranteed it will. (The nice thing about the ice on the Tanana is that you know it's going to thaw at some point, so you're guaranteed there will be a winner for the Nenana Ice Classic, even if the ice doesn't go out until May... 2013 sucked.)
posted by leahwrenn at 12:39 PM on April 3, 2015
My two cents, if you're going to do this right: anyone should be able to guess any time. Maybe 15 minute blocks. Ideally, you'd have a thermometer rigged to an alert, so that a clock is stopped when the thermometer registers the temperature you want, and the nearest guess(es) split the half of the pot that's not going to charity.
Agreed that you need a plan for if the temp doesn't get to 100 °,unless you're some place like Phoenix where you're guaranteed it will. (The nice thing about the ice on the Tanana is that you know it's going to thaw at some point, so you're guaranteed there will be a winner for the Nenana Ice Classic, even if the ice doesn't go out until May... 2013 sucked.)
posted by leahwrenn at 12:39 PM on April 3, 2015
This thread is closed to new comments.
Regarding the practical logistics of doing this I think you should just pick a local National Weather Service station and go by that, most often the local airport is what is used by TV or weather websites.
posted by Wretch729 at 12:10 PM on April 3, 2015 [2 favorites]