Aggressively Trading AAPL
March 1, 2015 10:01 PM Subscribe
I've made good money buying Apple stock on major downturns over the years. I'd like to do this more granularly, but don't have time (or day-trading skills or platform) to relentlessly buy minor downward blips and sell the recoveries. What's the easiest, most convenient, automated and newbie-friendly way to do this? Or, better: is there a way to piggyback on other's efforts (e.g. is there a fund operating according to this same thesis)?
My broker, Vanguard, strongly discourages this type of trading, so if there's no fund already doing this, I'll need to open an account elsewhere, but I have limited patience for the standard day-trader platforms (I'm uninterested in turning the trading end of this into a hobby).
I understand that success in this strategy assumes all downturns will be temporary, and am aware of the risks and counterarguments and would prefer not to argue those here....nor the overall prospects, worthiness, or business particulars of Apple, Inc.. I amiably request that you reply to my specific question (if you have useful advice), rather than challenge my underlying assumptions.
My broker, Vanguard, strongly discourages this type of trading, so if there's no fund already doing this, I'll need to open an account elsewhere, but I have limited patience for the standard day-trader platforms (I'm uninterested in turning the trading end of this into a hobby).
I understand that success in this strategy assumes all downturns will be temporary, and am aware of the risks and counterarguments and would prefer not to argue those here....nor the overall prospects, worthiness, or business particulars of Apple, Inc.. I amiably request that you reply to my specific question (if you have useful advice), rather than challenge my underlying assumptions.
Are you wedded to this particular strategy (buy on dips, sell on increases), or are you just looking for a way to make as much money as possible if AAPL goes up in price?
If you want to play that particular strategy, then it sounds like you just need a brokerage firm that won't limit the number of trades you can make. I don't have a particular recommendation, but I might start looking at E-Trade or Schwab or any of the other big names. If you pursue this strategy hope you understand how your profits and losses will be taxed. Short-term capital gains can take a big bite out of profits.
If you are not wedded to that particular strategy, then there are other ways to place an outsized bet on AAPL's long-term prospects. Most notably, you can purchase options that will give you the right to purchase AAPL at a specific price at some point in the future. If you think Apple will be trading at $200 in six months, you can load up on options at $130 today and then exercise them in six months. Because the options cost less than individual shares, you can place a much bigger bet on AAPL using this strategy than you could by just buying and holding. Of course, if the stock is worth less than $130/share in six months then the options are worthless and you've lost all the money you spent on them.
posted by alms at 6:14 AM on March 2, 2015 [2 favorites]
If you want to play that particular strategy, then it sounds like you just need a brokerage firm that won't limit the number of trades you can make. I don't have a particular recommendation, but I might start looking at E-Trade or Schwab or any of the other big names. If you pursue this strategy hope you understand how your profits and losses will be taxed. Short-term capital gains can take a big bite out of profits.
If you are not wedded to that particular strategy, then there are other ways to place an outsized bet on AAPL's long-term prospects. Most notably, you can purchase options that will give you the right to purchase AAPL at a specific price at some point in the future. If you think Apple will be trading at $200 in six months, you can load up on options at $130 today and then exercise them in six months. Because the options cost less than individual shares, you can place a much bigger bet on AAPL using this strategy than you could by just buying and holding. Of course, if the stock is worth less than $130/share in six months then the options are worthless and you've lost all the money you spent on them.
posted by alms at 6:14 AM on March 2, 2015 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: un petit (or others): Quantopian, just at a glance, looks really good. Any comments on the positives or negatives of their platform? Or about any similar companies out there?
Alms- The law of large numbers limits the upside of its stock price at this point. They could build a device that lets you talk to Jesus, and it isn't going to double from here. However, there are always skittish Apple investors who sell at the least bad news (have a look at their chart). So far, it's always been overreaction, and the stock price has always recovered and then some. At this point, the real money to be made is by working those sawtooths (even with the tax hit)...if you share my assumption Apple's success won't erode anytime soon.
There are people who are very much into this sort of granular investing. They're called daytraders, and I'm not one of them, and am uninterested in learning their nerdy tools. But if I don't use tools that are at least somewhat nerdy (i.e. powerful), then I can't do this via algorithm and will have to be phoning a broker several times a week, never taking my eyes off the stock price, and I definitely don't want that. I don't want to argue out any of this out, I'm just explaining because you asked (reluctantly, as I specifically requested no assumption-questioning).
posted by Quisp Lover at 8:30 AM on March 2, 2015
Alms- The law of large numbers limits the upside of its stock price at this point. They could build a device that lets you talk to Jesus, and it isn't going to double from here. However, there are always skittish Apple investors who sell at the least bad news (have a look at their chart). So far, it's always been overreaction, and the stock price has always recovered and then some. At this point, the real money to be made is by working those sawtooths (even with the tax hit)...if you share my assumption Apple's success won't erode anytime soon.
There are people who are very much into this sort of granular investing. They're called daytraders, and I'm not one of them, and am uninterested in learning their nerdy tools. But if I don't use tools that are at least somewhat nerdy (i.e. powerful), then I can't do this via algorithm and will have to be phoning a broker several times a week, never taking my eyes off the stock price, and I definitely don't want that. I don't want to argue out any of this out, I'm just explaining because you asked (reluctantly, as I specifically requested no assumption-questioning).
posted by Quisp Lover at 8:30 AM on March 2, 2015
Okay, thanks for clarifying that you want that particular strategy. Quantopian does look like a cool platform, if you can get into their beta program.
The one other little comment I'll make is that trading stocks doesn't need to involve "phoning a broker". It's 2015, and there are plenty of brokerage firms that let you buy and sell stock using their web interface. That's probably obvious, but since you mentioned "phoning" as part of the hassle of doing this by hand, I thought I'd mention it.
Good luck!
posted by alms at 8:54 AM on March 2, 2015
The one other little comment I'll make is that trading stocks doesn't need to involve "phoning a broker". It's 2015, and there are plenty of brokerage firms that let you buy and sell stock using their web interface. That's probably obvious, but since you mentioned "phoning" as part of the hassle of doing this by hand, I thought I'd mention it.
Good luck!
posted by alms at 8:54 AM on March 2, 2015
I wasn't going to post, but now I will since I can read your feedback as to ways that you are thinking of doing this (ie, phoning a broker, watching a stock price, etc.). If this ends up being too simple, just flag my answer.
With most platforms, you can just select a list of stocks or ETFs that you want to watch, and then click so that they email/text you in certain circumstances (ie, stock price drops X%, news, or whatever it is you want sent to you). Therefore, you don't have to monitor it all the time.
You don't have to talk to anyone if you are using a platform (just go in and click buy and the given number of stocks you want).
I think an easy way to sell off those stocks when they go up in price again would be to set it at a covered call price. For example, lets say you just purchased stock at 100 and know that the mean price is normally. You can sell a covered call for 1 lot (1oo of the stock) over whatever number of days you feel comfortable with. During that time, you will collect a certain amount of money (ie, premium price for the call, lets pretend 100 dollars) and if it reaches that price or more, it will be sold off.
Lets pretend it does not reach that price. You keep the 100 dollars. Then the next month, set it up to do the same (you pick the date, you can look at the prices for premium, select the strike price (ie, 110 if that is the average price), etc. It really is simple to do on most platforms. Both Scotttrade and etrade, for example, would let you do this, but this is not a recommendation for those platforms (just saying it is a normal part of most platforms). The caveat/limitation of selling covered call is you have to be okay if the stock goes up to 120 in price, it is called away, but you only collect for it reaching 110. However, you do get the premium and it is mindless/you won't be watching.
Feel free to memail, but I think it is easy to figure it out. This might be too easy or obvious, so again, feel free to flag for this to be deleted.
posted by Wolfster at 9:02 AM on March 2, 2015
With most platforms, you can just select a list of stocks or ETFs that you want to watch, and then click so that they email/text you in certain circumstances (ie, stock price drops X%, news, or whatever it is you want sent to you). Therefore, you don't have to monitor it all the time.
You don't have to talk to anyone if you are using a platform (just go in and click buy and the given number of stocks you want).
I think an easy way to sell off those stocks when they go up in price again would be to set it at a covered call price. For example, lets say you just purchased stock at 100 and know that the mean price is normally. You can sell a covered call for 1 lot (1oo of the stock) over whatever number of days you feel comfortable with. During that time, you will collect a certain amount of money (ie, premium price for the call, lets pretend 100 dollars) and if it reaches that price or more, it will be sold off.
Lets pretend it does not reach that price. You keep the 100 dollars. Then the next month, set it up to do the same (you pick the date, you can look at the prices for premium, select the strike price (ie, 110 if that is the average price), etc. It really is simple to do on most platforms. Both Scotttrade and etrade, for example, would let you do this, but this is not a recommendation for those platforms (just saying it is a normal part of most platforms). The caveat/limitation of selling covered call is you have to be okay if the stock goes up to 120 in price, it is called away, but you only collect for it reaching 110. However, you do get the premium and it is mindless/you won't be watching.
Feel free to memail, but I think it is easy to figure it out. This might be too easy or obvious, so again, feel free to flag for this to be deleted.
posted by Wolfster at 9:02 AM on March 2, 2015
Response by poster: Wolfster, thanks. My concern is that limiting upside via pre-guesstimated call prices - combined with the tax burden of short term trading - might seriously erode profits. OTOH, I don't necessarily see a better way. OTOH, I'm not an expert in this sort of trading...which is one of the reasons I asked this question. "Buy the sell-offs" is not a particularly fresh move, so I shouldn't have to reinvent wheels. I'd like to execute my overall strategy with as little time spent in the weeds as possible, riding atop the expertise of actual experts. Perhaps that's not possible, but I'd be surprised....
I'd also be surprised if there's really no fund already doing this with AAPL. It's a thesis others surely share. Lots of AAPL bulls are currently realizing the limitations of large numbers, yet are tempted by the opportunity presented by irrationally twitchy AAPL bears in combination with the great (IMO) unlikelihood of a permanent stock price plunge happening anytime soon.
posted by Quisp Lover at 10:07 AM on March 2, 2015
I'd also be surprised if there's really no fund already doing this with AAPL. It's a thesis others surely share. Lots of AAPL bulls are currently realizing the limitations of large numbers, yet are tempted by the opportunity presented by irrationally twitchy AAPL bears in combination with the great (IMO) unlikelihood of a permanent stock price plunge happening anytime soon.
posted by Quisp Lover at 10:07 AM on March 2, 2015
Okay, I can fess up. I actually tried to do what you're suggesting in my own, very amateurish way a few years ago. I saw all the noise in the stock price, felt confident it was going up, and thought "there's gotta be a way to buy at the bottom and sell at the top of all those little fluctuations."
I also didn't want to try to get my head into all the uber-complex day-trading tools.
What I did was very simple. I had an existing account with Fidelity. I bought some shares of AAPL, and immediately put in a sell-order with a limit price that was high enough to net some gains. Then when the price got hit and the sale happened, I immediately put in a buy order for the same number of shares at a lower price. I forget what kind of range I was putting in, probably on the order of a 1% or 2% change.
The mechanics were very easy to implement using Fidelity's standard web UI for normal trading. I was doing this all inside an IRA, so I didn't have to worry about tax implications from the sales.
It didn't work out for a couple of reasons. Initially the stock was trending up. So I'd hit my sell price, sell my position, and then the stock would keep going up. So I had to keep resetting my "purchase on the dip" price, and meanwhile I was missing out on the appreciation.
Then at one point the market decided that Apple was over for some reason. Android was winning, or Tim wasn't Steve Jobs, or they were never going to ship the Apple TV, or whatever. I don't remember. But if you look over the history of Apple, you'll see repeated episodes where the market loses confidence and decides "this can't be real" and then you see something like a 30% drop in the stock price. I bought my shares on the way down (after the first 2% drop), and then just watched as it kept going down, down, down. I already had my play money in the game, at a price that was now well above the market price. It would take a major correction to get back to break even.
Of course, that correction eventually came, but I decided not to sell at that point. I just held onto the stock, and added it to my other shares of Apple which I had purchased a long time prior and held onto.
It really does look like there'd be a way to make money off of all that stuttering, but the trick when I tried it was figuring out what was a stutter and what was the start of a long-term trend. I couldn't figure out how to do that.
posted by alms at 10:55 AM on March 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
I also didn't want to try to get my head into all the uber-complex day-trading tools.
What I did was very simple. I had an existing account with Fidelity. I bought some shares of AAPL, and immediately put in a sell-order with a limit price that was high enough to net some gains. Then when the price got hit and the sale happened, I immediately put in a buy order for the same number of shares at a lower price. I forget what kind of range I was putting in, probably on the order of a 1% or 2% change.
The mechanics were very easy to implement using Fidelity's standard web UI for normal trading. I was doing this all inside an IRA, so I didn't have to worry about tax implications from the sales.
It didn't work out for a couple of reasons. Initially the stock was trending up. So I'd hit my sell price, sell my position, and then the stock would keep going up. So I had to keep resetting my "purchase on the dip" price, and meanwhile I was missing out on the appreciation.
Then at one point the market decided that Apple was over for some reason. Android was winning, or Tim wasn't Steve Jobs, or they were never going to ship the Apple TV, or whatever. I don't remember. But if you look over the history of Apple, you'll see repeated episodes where the market loses confidence and decides "this can't be real" and then you see something like a 30% drop in the stock price. I bought my shares on the way down (after the first 2% drop), and then just watched as it kept going down, down, down. I already had my play money in the game, at a price that was now well above the market price. It would take a major correction to get back to break even.
Of course, that correction eventually came, but I decided not to sell at that point. I just held onto the stock, and added it to my other shares of Apple which I had purchased a long time prior and held onto.
It really does look like there'd be a way to make money off of all that stuttering, but the trick when I tried it was figuring out what was a stutter and what was the start of a long-term trend. I couldn't figure out how to do that.
posted by alms at 10:55 AM on March 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
You might try Robinhood... it's a zero-commission brokerage that's only on iPhone for now. They're in early access, so you have to sign up to be notified. I signed up and got an invite I think a week later, although I haven't done anything with it because I hate gambling, it stresses me out. I'm not sure why I signed up, except that when I see the words "early access" I lose rational thought.
posted by Huck500 at 11:05 AM on March 2, 2015
posted by Huck500 at 11:05 AM on March 2, 2015
alms: If you want to play that particular strategy, then it sounds like you just need a brokerage firm that won't limit the number of trades you can make. I don't have a particular recommendation, but I might start looking at E-Trade or Schwab or any of the other big names.Schwab has enormous fees per-transaction (except, IIRC, on it's own branded funds), so daytrading at Schwab is a bad choice. Interactive Brokers, E-Trade, and some others offer trades on the order of $1 apiece.
Huck500: You might try Robinhood...Robinhood keeps their overhead low by buying once a day. You can't daytrade on them; they treat all stocks as quasi-mutual funds.
Now, on to your trading methodologies...
You're describing "quantitative" or "quants" trading. You can do this semi-longterm (over months), intraday (usually holding overnight), or daytrading. Each requires a bit different approach, algorithm, reaction time - and risks.
posted by IAmBroom at 1:14 PM on March 2, 2015
I recommend checking out Interactive Brokers. Also, if you're planning on making trades automatically, be aware of the Pattern Day Trader rule -- if you make more than three "day trades" (buying and selling the same stock on the same day) in any consecutive five day period, you're required to have at least $25k in equity in a margin account.
posted by bradf at 10:14 AM on March 3, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by bradf at 10:14 AM on March 3, 2015 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: Following up on the odd chance someone's still reading.
The only advice has been for nerdy do-it-yourself tools for seasoned day traders and algorithm wizards. Which, as I said, I'm not. And the pitfalls mentioned by Wolfster and Aims are....pitfalls. I'm not expert. I'm just a guy reasonably assured that 1. AAPL will keep going down periodically, and 2. AAPL will always recover (it may not continue its meteoric rise from the current point, but it will at least eke it's way back to this price regardless of the passing petty crises, scares, and disappointments), and I want to capitalize on this steady confidence, given that everybody else seems so crazily twitchy. I don't want to be a manic wise-ass about it, though.
So I'm going to do something else. Every time AAPL drops by 10%, I'm going to buy some. Then I'll sell when it rebounds to $133 (though I'll way for a 4 or 4 day leveling-off, to see if it shoots higher...which it probably won't, AAPL seems to consistently rebound to its previous high and stay there a while).
In fact, a buying point is approaching right now. And another will likely appear when some teapot tempest arises from the i-Watch's impending release.
I'll buy from a conventional broker, because this won't involve daily trading. And let's see how I do....
posted by Quisp Lover at 3:22 PM on March 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
The only advice has been for nerdy do-it-yourself tools for seasoned day traders and algorithm wizards. Which, as I said, I'm not. And the pitfalls mentioned by Wolfster and Aims are....pitfalls. I'm not expert. I'm just a guy reasonably assured that 1. AAPL will keep going down periodically, and 2. AAPL will always recover (it may not continue its meteoric rise from the current point, but it will at least eke it's way back to this price regardless of the passing petty crises, scares, and disappointments), and I want to capitalize on this steady confidence, given that everybody else seems so crazily twitchy. I don't want to be a manic wise-ass about it, though.
So I'm going to do something else. Every time AAPL drops by 10%, I'm going to buy some. Then I'll sell when it rebounds to $133 (though I'll way for a 4 or 4 day leveling-off, to see if it shoots higher...which it probably won't, AAPL seems to consistently rebound to its previous high and stay there a while).
In fact, a buying point is approaching right now. And another will likely appear when some teapot tempest arises from the i-Watch's impending release.
I'll buy from a conventional broker, because this won't involve daily trading. And let's see how I do....
posted by Quisp Lover at 3:22 PM on March 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
Response by poster: Like now, for example...
posted by Quisp Lover at 8:12 AM on August 4, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Quisp Lover at 8:12 AM on August 4, 2015 [1 favorite]
The devil is in the details. If you were looking for a 10% drop from the high of $133, you would have purchased at around $120, and at this point you'd be down about 5%. You'd be in good shape if/when the stock goes back up to $133. But if the stock sits at $114 for six months you're sitting on a loss for a good chunk of time, all the while having to deal with the worry that it will go lower. (For example -- China accounts for a large percentage of Apple's current revenue. The Chinese economy is very fragile with the recent drop in Chinese stock prices. What if sales of iPhones go way down in China? That would hit AAPL hard.)
Even if the stock does go back to $133 in six months, that's not exactly a timeframe for rapidly flipping the stock and making money on the ups and downs.
posted by alms at 8:33 AM on August 4, 2015
Even if the stock does go back to $133 in six months, that's not exactly a timeframe for rapidly flipping the stock and making money on the ups and downs.
posted by alms at 8:33 AM on August 4, 2015
Response by poster: The devil's in the details, but not in the way you think! The details prevent people from clearly seeing the simple truth, which is that the stock will recover. I don't think anyone really doubts it. They're all concerned about opportunity cost and lots of other details.
But if I'm not a Player (trying to make really huge scores), and I'm not a fund manager (needing to prove performance by next quarter's report) and I'm not an emotional wreck (who'd be devastated buying here and then seeing it fall an additional 20%), I can almost surely make 15% when it eventually returns to the $130s. How is that bad?
Yes, it may take a while. That last irrational fall took a while to recover from, but it was less than a year. And why wouldn't I want to make 15% in under a year with a blue chip stock backed by incredible substance?
The fact that I may strike early and miss making 20 or 25%, and will need to be patient, and must tie up my money for a while.....none of that matters. I can make 15%. How is that not great, unless I'm a Player, or a fund manager, or a nervous wreck?
Your thinking is a textbook example of the perfect as the enemy of the good! Also, that's the thinking that prevents people from buying, and prolongs these irrational dips. I aim to profit from the irrationality, not obediently flock into the same mindset.
posted by Quisp Lover at 10:13 AM on August 4, 2015
But if I'm not a Player (trying to make really huge scores), and I'm not a fund manager (needing to prove performance by next quarter's report) and I'm not an emotional wreck (who'd be devastated buying here and then seeing it fall an additional 20%), I can almost surely make 15% when it eventually returns to the $130s. How is that bad?
Yes, it may take a while. That last irrational fall took a while to recover from, but it was less than a year. And why wouldn't I want to make 15% in under a year with a blue chip stock backed by incredible substance?
The fact that I may strike early and miss making 20 or 25%, and will need to be patient, and must tie up my money for a while.....none of that matters. I can make 15%. How is that not great, unless I'm a Player, or a fund manager, or a nervous wreck?
Your thinking is a textbook example of the perfect as the enemy of the good! Also, that's the thinking that prevents people from buying, and prolongs these irrational dips. I aim to profit from the irrationality, not obediently flock into the same mindset.
posted by Quisp Lover at 10:13 AM on August 4, 2015
AAPL also has the benefit of providing a significant dividend -- much more than you'd get leaving your money in the bank -- while you're holding the stock.
posted by alms at 2:42 PM on August 4, 2015
posted by alms at 2:42 PM on August 4, 2015
Yes, it is sort of crazy. The question is if you buy at $107 today, what price do you sell at? $110? $114? or do you wait for it to go all the way back to $130?
posted by alms at 6:17 AM on December 23, 2015
posted by alms at 6:17 AM on December 23, 2015
Response by poster: If you buy my thesis (these dips are strictly short term; few savvy people expect it not to rebound to previous highs eventually), then there's no reason to sell before $130. Micro day-trading is a whole other endeavor - and one that IS very much stuck in the short term perspective I'm talking about transcending.
Irrationality and short term jumpiness has given us a series of 25% discounts on this stock; so I'm not looking for chintzier discounts and higher tax bills. The only requisite for pocketing that 25% is calm nerves and long-term outlook (i.e. don't even look at the charts until it recovers). This isn't a small biotech that could evaporate to pennies; your potential downside is that the price stays here more than a year or two and you neither profit nor lose. Not so bad. I like the odds. And I'm not sure I'm even betting against the market. I think the smart money agrees with me, but is waiting for a bottom (me? I don't need 26% or 27%. I'm just fine here).
But AAPL always bounces back. IMO The market doesn't understand Apple; doesn't understand quality. Traders are still in an early 20th century industrial mindset; conceiving of all products as commoditized widgets and missing the basis for Apple's unprecedented mega-success.
How are you catching new postings here, btw? Is there a way to set an alert for new activity on a given "question"?
posted by Quisp Lover at 9:59 AM on December 30, 2015
Irrationality and short term jumpiness has given us a series of 25% discounts on this stock; so I'm not looking for chintzier discounts and higher tax bills. The only requisite for pocketing that 25% is calm nerves and long-term outlook (i.e. don't even look at the charts until it recovers). This isn't a small biotech that could evaporate to pennies; your potential downside is that the price stays here more than a year or two and you neither profit nor lose. Not so bad. I like the odds. And I'm not sure I'm even betting against the market. I think the smart money agrees with me, but is waiting for a bottom (me? I don't need 26% or 27%. I'm just fine here).
But AAPL always bounces back. IMO The market doesn't understand Apple; doesn't understand quality. Traders are still in an early 20th century industrial mindset; conceiving of all products as commoditized widgets and missing the basis for Apple's unprecedented mega-success.
How are you catching new postings here, btw? Is there a way to set an alert for new activity on a given "question"?
posted by Quisp Lover at 9:59 AM on December 30, 2015
If you click on Metafilter's "Recent Activity" link you see threads you've contributed to that have most recently been updated. (You can also add threads to this Recent Activity page by clicking "Add to Activity" at the top of the initial post. That way you can follow a thread that you didn't comment in.)
Regarding your AAPL thesis, that makes sense to me, but it is more of a classic "long" approach than how I interpreted your original question. For example, when the stock dropped from $130 to $115 a few months ago, you would have presumably bought then, and at that point stayed invested since the stock hasn't gone back up to $130. So now that it's down to $105, you wouldn't necessarily have more money to invest.
posted by alms at 11:39 AM on January 1, 2016
Regarding your AAPL thesis, that makes sense to me, but it is more of a classic "long" approach than how I interpreted your original question. For example, when the stock dropped from $130 to $115 a few months ago, you would have presumably bought then, and at that point stayed invested since the stock hasn't gone back up to $130. So now that it's down to $105, you wouldn't necessarily have more money to invest.
posted by alms at 11:39 AM on January 1, 2016
Response by poster: LOL, quite right! I just re-read my own question, and I was indeed defying everything I just said (and normally believe)! I'd forgotten my original question, and, fwiw, never actually pursued that idea.
The funniest thing is that, having reread my question, I'm now again tempted to override my usual anti-day-trader inclinations. Because if my thesis is correct that AAPL always springs back, there's profit in the micro as well as the macro. It's hard not to contemplate.
As to the question of when to buy/sell, and how to budget so you don't run through the budget in the first few trades, I'm honestly not sure. And the devil's in those details, obviously!
My question was about how to profit from my thesis in the micro without delving into day-trading skills/tools/mindset, but I suppose the very process of determining buy and sell points and of parceling out bets is precisely the unavoidable wonky stuff which repels me. I guess that's why I never did it!
I still wish there were a fund I could join where someone applies this thesis in a smart way, so I could make an overriding bet in that thesis and let it play out without getting personally mired. Actually, I'm surprised there's not! After all, my thesis is not particularly odd or controversial!
I guess the people who establish such personal theses normally tend to be the type of people happy/able to advance them on their own. I'm an unusual blend of interest and disinterest.
Thanks for the "Recent Activity" tip!
posted by Quisp Lover at 12:01 PM on January 3, 2016
The funniest thing is that, having reread my question, I'm now again tempted to override my usual anti-day-trader inclinations. Because if my thesis is correct that AAPL always springs back, there's profit in the micro as well as the macro. It's hard not to contemplate.
As to the question of when to buy/sell, and how to budget so you don't run through the budget in the first few trades, I'm honestly not sure. And the devil's in those details, obviously!
My question was about how to profit from my thesis in the micro without delving into day-trading skills/tools/mindset, but I suppose the very process of determining buy and sell points and of parceling out bets is precisely the unavoidable wonky stuff which repels me. I guess that's why I never did it!
I still wish there were a fund I could join where someone applies this thesis in a smart way, so I could make an overriding bet in that thesis and let it play out without getting personally mired. Actually, I'm surprised there's not! After all, my thesis is not particularly odd or controversial!
I guess the people who establish such personal theses normally tend to be the type of people happy/able to advance them on their own. I'm an unusual blend of interest and disinterest.
Thanks for the "Recent Activity" tip!
posted by Quisp Lover at 12:01 PM on January 3, 2016
Response by poster: If it drops to $90, I'll just buy more. That's another 15% of free money if it bounces back.
Will it bounce back? Current P/E ratio is a low, low $10.49. If the company's a disaster, this makes sense. Otherwise, no.
posted by Quisp Lover at 1:18 PM on January 7, 2016
Will it bounce back? Current P/E ratio is a low, low $10.49. If the company's a disaster, this makes sense. Otherwise, no.
posted by Quisp Lover at 1:18 PM on January 7, 2016
There's a lot of concern among investors that iPhone sales may have peaked and will now trend downwards. This is driven by multiple reports of earnings cuts by companies that supply parts to Apple for the iPhone 6 and 6S.
Apple depends on the iPhone for the bulk of its earnings. The stock price is driven by the market's perception of future earnings prospects tempered by risks. The fact that a company as large as Apple stands largely on a single pillar creates an unusual degree of risk.
So, sure, Apple will continue to make obscene amounts of money, but the stock could still get punished if the amount Apple makes this year are slightly less than what they made last year.
All of this will get a lot clearer when they announce iPhone sales from the last quarter of 2015 as part of their earnings release at the end of January.
posted by alms at 7:05 AM on January 8, 2016
Apple depends on the iPhone for the bulk of its earnings. The stock price is driven by the market's perception of future earnings prospects tempered by risks. The fact that a company as large as Apple stands largely on a single pillar creates an unusual degree of risk.
So, sure, Apple will continue to make obscene amounts of money, but the stock could still get punished if the amount Apple makes this year are slightly less than what they made last year.
All of this will get a lot clearer when they announce iPhone sales from the last quarter of 2015 as part of their earnings release at the end of January.
posted by alms at 7:05 AM on January 8, 2016
« Older Vlc on iPad is broken. Alternatives? | What is reddit's equivalent outside of the US? Newer »
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by un petit cadeau at 10:53 PM on March 1, 2015 [2 favorites]