How likely am I to die in a ball of fire?
September 18, 2011 1:54 PM Subscribe
Some help with general aviation safety related statistics. Do I really have a 7% chance of dying in a ball of flames if I fly for three hours a week in a fixed wing non-commercial plane?
posted by crapples to Sports, Hobbies, & Recreation (27 answers total) 1 user marked this as a favorite
I see here
(page 5) that there are 1.19 fatal accidents in fixed wing non-commercial flights for every 100,000 hours flown. I'm working on my pilot's license now and I fly for about 3 hours each week. Let's say I continue to fly for 3 hours a week for the rest of my life (40 more years). That's 6,240 hours of flight.
With the per/hour probability of death being 0.0000119, am I right that I have a 0.0000119 * 6240 = 7.4% chance of dying in a plane crash?
Am I handling these numbers correctly?
By the way: I have no fear of flying whatsoever. My wife, however, has asked me to look into the safety of my new hobby. I was hoping these numbers would be comforting for her, but I'm finding that they may not be.
Note: I already know that safety always depends on individual conditions and the individual pilot. But they are helpful when we're trying to figure out what general trends look like. Thanks.