The short-term forecast for Egypt is...?

September 10, 2010 10:54 AM

My girlfriend and I are considering a trip to Egypt this November. The conventional wisdom seems to be that a visitor to Egypt is more likely to be bitten by a camel than be the victim of any violence. Is there any reason for special concern in light of the threatened boycotts of an election for Mubarak's successor or the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, etc.? We're a white unmarried couple traveling on U.S. passports.

I've been through previous AskMes on Egypt and spoken with friends who have been recently, and general consensus has been that it's a safe (enough) destination for Americans--though, clearly, not without some risk. Even Disney is running tours--but with Mubarak's weak health foreshadowing a potentially contentious election to name his successor, and with the end of U.S. operations in Iraq, we wanted the Hivemind's take on whether we should consider postponing a November visit until some of the dust settles. Is there even any dust that needs to settle? We're far from expert on the geopolitics.

We're pretty well traveled, respectful visitors, and generally mindful enough of our surroundings. I doubt we'll be going off the beaten path from the major attractions.

posted by dam1975 to travel & transportation around Egypt (6 answers total)

The election to name his successor will not be contentious. It will either be Omar Suleiman or Gamal Mubarak. Most likely Gamal. The election will involve the appointed successor to Mubarak and some non-NDP opponents. Clearly, it's impossible to predict a crazy uprising by the people, but the NDP pretty much has a lockdown on electoral politics there, Mubarak or not. You'll be fine.
posted by proj at 11:02 AM on September 10, 2010

Don't mention Pastor Jones. Tell people you're Irish. Most Egyptians can just as easily tell between Irish and American as you can discern between Jordanian and Yemeni Arabic.
posted by Biru at 11:08 AM on September 10, 2010

I traveled around the middle east right after the Abu Ghirab photos hit the airwaves. Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon... No one, not one person brought it up save some other Americans and French folks I met along the way (until I got to Istanbul, long story...) I'm sure because they did not want to embarrass a guest, the ultimate sin.

When I met and hung out with some Iraqi refugees in Damascus, they could not even bring themselves to show anything but hospitality and good humor towards my fiancee and me, thought their home and family members had just been bombed by American forces. When they finally revealed this fact and it clearly pained us to hear it, THEY APOLOGISED TO US!

My wife's family and some of our friends were certain that we were going to be beheaded, but we had one of those unforgetable times of our lives.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 11:31 AM on September 10, 2010 [4 favorites]

I'm with the other commenters. I spent last summer in Cairo. I would probably not want to spend a lot of time downtown or at the other places where protests gather, but you're most likely not going to be there as a tourist. You don't need to tell people you're Irish, that's silly.
posted by emkelley at 11:57 AM on September 10, 2010

I lived in Egypt for a couple of years, and I still have a bunch of expat friends there. You'll be fine. Tensions are no higher there now than usual, from what I'm hearing (I was there during Bush and Obama administrations, and every day Egyptians I encountered were inclined to say thinks like, "George Bush bad, Americans good").

Mubarak could hang on for a while (and the issue of his successor has been raging for quite a while now anyway). Egypt makes a huge amount of money off of tourism, and they work pretty hard to keep tourists safe. I would definitely not avoid the Sinai--well, I'd avoid Sharm, but that's because it's Sharm, not because of safety--and would definitely recommend including a few days in Dahab or Taba, both of which are amazing. The snorkeling is incredible.

The only reason I wouldn't go to Egypt is if some major something or other happened right before you left. Even "protests" are pretty small and tend to squelched pretty quickly (bad for democracy and Egyptians, good for tourists).

If people ask, I would tell them you are married, but that's more out of cultural sensitivity and could make things a tad easier for your girlfriend (so she doesn't get hit on by all the guides). I wouldn't lie about your nationality. There's no need.

Relax, and have fun. You'll be fine!
posted by bluedaisy at 1:42 PM on September 10, 2010

I was there when Israel fired airstrikes on Gaza and then Egypt closed its borders in late 2008, leading to protests. The only protests I saw were in Cairo and they were very tightly controlled by police. It was much more of an event in western media than I experienced it as a tourist on the ground. Outside of Cairo, we didn't even see any protests. Seriously, the only threat of violence was me idly telling my dad there'd be consequences if he didn't quit asking to be airlifted to Israel to have his food poisoning evaluated by a qualified professional.
posted by *s at 2:27 PM on September 10, 2010