Interestingly, this price explosion occurred at a time when rents were growing fairly modestly. This is somewhat strange because the factors that typically drive home prices, such as incomes, employment, and population growth, also affect rents. Yet after 2001, while prices of already richly-valued homes increased 98 percent and the monthly payments on those homes rose 88 percent, rents only increased 31 percent.A study by Federal Reserve economists at the beginning of 2008 noted:
Between 1960 and 1995, rents and house prices rose at relatively the same rate. Rents fluctuated between 5 percent and 5.5 percent of home prices during this period.And that's precisely what happened: SoCal real estate has gone down by as much 30-50% in some areas. But at the same time, rents in L.A. went up by about 5% last year -- the slowest increase in a decade, to be sure, but an increase nonetheless, even factoring in a small decrease (less than 1%) in 4Q 2008. And even if L.A. rents do slightly decrease overall in 2009 -- which is actually a possibility -- the distance rents can fall doesn't correlate with the distance real estate has had to fall.
In 1996, the market started to change. House prices climbed rapidly--much faster than rents. Within ten years, the cost of buying had more than doubled. The cost of renting did not. By 2006, the rent-price ratio fell to the historically low level of 3.5 percent--approximately 30 percent less than its long-term average.
...It is worth noting that these are national estimates. In areas of California, where the gap between house prices and rents is larger, it is likely that house prices will need to fall much more than 15 percent to be in line with rents once again.
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It's entirely possible that they receive enough unsolicited inquiries about vacant apartments that they are very confident in their ability to get a new tenant as soon as they want.
posted by desuetude at 11:52 AM on March 27