Red Mars
January 27, 2025 9:55 AM   Subscribe

Could China launch a rocket to the Moon or Mars in secret?

Does the technology exist to track every rocket launch in the world? Could China land on the moon or mars without the rest of the world knowing about the mission? (Assuming they're using standard rocketry and not some kind of sci-fi cloaking device or stealth-ship.)

I assume a Saturn V size rocket launch would be simpler to detect than a smaller one. Could they launch a flotilla of Shenzous in secret, assemble an vehicle in orbit and blast moon/planet-wards without being tracked?
posted by run"monty to Science & Nature (14 answers total)
 
No.
posted by bowbeacon at 10:01 AM on January 27 [9 favorites]


I'm gonna say "no". The US Space Surveillance Network explicitly tracks some ~35,000 objects orbiting Earth down to about 5cm in size. There's also the ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme that tracks all this stuff. There's Russian agencies as well, and also various types of cooperative networks. Space Debris is so important and dangerous to space missions and there are so many tools and eyes on it all that I don't think anything of any useful size is getting into space without several agencies noticing.
posted by SaltySalticid at 10:02 AM on January 27 [2 favorites]


We have satellites over every nuclear threat country, monitoring for even very small signals of missile launch.

A rocket launch would be “secret” for literally a fraction of a second.
posted by Lemkin at 10:05 AM on January 27 [2 favorites]


Hahah, this reminds me of North Korea (!)* somehow secretly launching someone onto Mars on For All Mankind.

* because Apple is afraid of China, it's North Korea...
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:12 AM on January 27 [5 favorites]


Best answer: Rocket engines are incredibly high-power-output devices. It's hard to fathom, so let me make a few comparisons: a single engine of the five-engine Saturn V produced more energy output than the peak electricity usage of New York City. The energy output of the first stage was roughly the equivalent of half of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, just output over the course of three or so minutes instead of in one instant.

This is why there is little to no concept of stealth in space in realistic science fiction; if your spaceship has an engine that can move it, it is going to generate a humongous, unavoidable thermal and optical signature that will be seen by practically everything. So, even if someone could sneak an entire spaceship into orbit somehow, merely the engine burn required to get that spaceship to the moon (or anywhere else) would make it light up like a beacon.

This goes double for more efficient, non-chemical rocket engines; if an engine gets twice the fuel efficiency, it generates four times the power output per unit fuel. So even a slow ion drive is going to generate megawatts of power over the course of weeks or months, lighting you up like a beacon once again. And of course, when your rockets get better, the problem only gets worse; as a bit of a sci-fi comparison, the drive from the Expanse is rated for about 5.5 terawatts.

(apologies for the edit, formatting error ate some of my text)
posted by etealuear_crushue at 10:41 AM on January 27 [13 favorites]


You could build a rail gun disguised as a space station and use it to launch a craft that uses the same principles as the stealth technology used on planes today. Paint it black of course.

It might take months or years to get where it’s going and you’d have a very limited payload, but that’s how it could be done.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 10:50 AM on January 27 [1 favorite]


There are multiple redundant systems, some public and some secret, to monitor all rocket launches globally. This is primarily because ICBMs and hypersonic missiles are a critical military concern.

For example the commercial IMS network can detect infrasound waves caused by launches from as far away as 9,000 kilometers (5,592 miles). Infrasound waves are caused both by the output of the engines, as illustrated by etealuear_crushue, but also by any large objects attempting to punch through the atmosphere and escape the pull of gravity. Minimum escape velocity is 11 km per second, even 100 km from the surface of the planet. So even rockets that are launched from high flying aircraft would be detected eventually as the infrasound waves propagate out.

Both the US Navy and the US Air Force have their own long range infrasound detection networks since the 1970's.
posted by zenon at 11:06 AM on January 27 [4 favorites]


Best answer: You mean a crew lander? or a probe? I think something small might be possible, depending on who you mean by "the rest of the world". China launches a lot of stuff on some big rockets, and their military payloads are often classified, so getting some smaller robot lander to LEO as part of another launch (or just by lying about the payload) seems feasible, and arranging things so the TLI burn happens over China after a once-around is just a matter of careful planning. You'd want to minimise sunlight glint, so maybe make it nuclear powered. All of that'd make the thing pretty difficult to detect by anyone bar Space Force, and I think they'd need assets that they might not want to reveal (though they may want to wait for a different admin).

Lunar capture burns happen on the far side (so they're always hidden from Earth), and China's landed on the far side before, so deorbit and landing burns could be hidden also. That just leaves any mid-course correction, but that isn't 100% needed If your TLI is accurate enough.

For comms, there was some speculation that Russia's failed Luna-25 lander from 2023 may have been set to only transmit when Russia was under it, since no (amateur) satellite trackers had picked it up on its way out to the Moon, but it was probably just dead. Might work though, and maybe a sufficiently automated lander wouldn't need to transmit at all.

Fun thought experiment, but I agree with the other replies that a human lander probably isn't possible; my plan relies on hiding your launch in amongst other similar launches.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 12:02 PM on January 27 [2 favorites]


Best answer: There is no way to launch a rocket in secret or even assemble a sizable craft in earth orbit. The US has their stealth shuttle which they obviously try to keep secret but whose launches and general orbits are well known.

What might be barely possible is to disguise the mission as something else. Announce to the world that you are launching three large, unmanned probes that will flyby Mars on the way to somewhere else. Then once they are out beyond the range of close-earth surveillance, have them link up into a large, crewed vessel.

The problem with hiding a crewed voyage is that you will have to carry supplies, so the craft has to be large and travel much quicker that is optimal for a uncrewed probe. Anyone looking closely (and there will be people) are going to start asking questions as to why your craft is so large and traveling so quickly. But by that stage there will be no way for anyone to stop it.

So there is no way to suddenly announce "Guess what, suckers? We're on Mars" but you might possibly be able to say "We are 1 month into a 9 month voyage. Last one there sucks red dust."
posted by AndrewStephens at 1:21 PM on January 27 [2 favorites]


Could they launch a flotilla of Shenzous in secret, assemble an vehicle in orbit and blast moon/planet-wards without being tracked?

As others have mentioned there's no launching of anything in private. But what would be the benefit of trying to hide this huge technological feats? Countries want to show off their engineering skill, so there's no benefit to hiding stuff like this.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:11 PM on January 27


> * because Apple is afraid of China, it's North Korea...

Might want to check out what television studio shows up on that first title card, chief.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 6:58 PM on January 27


Best answer: You can't launch in private, but you could launch anonymously. Secretly build a cargo ship that converts into a launch platform. (Rocket inside the length of the ship; rotate into launch position so half the rocket is submerged, launch before anyone notices your weird ship at the equator. Cargo ships can be reflagged, repainted, renamed, re-equipped (as far as what's visible from satellites) that can make the job of backtracking the ship (assuming it's standard-enough in size) a very serious one that could only be done by the dedicated efforts of, basically the US, Russia, China, France, Germany, North Korea, as well as anyone who can muster a shitload of on-the-ground human intelligence (India would be a contender here since they have so very many Nationals in the shipping trade). The spaceship may be well on its way to Mars before anyone figures it out. By "well on its way" I mean "completed thrusting outward" -- once it leaves orbit, there's no stopping it. You don't *have* to orbit the Earth necessarily-- so-called "direct ascent" can work as long as you have right combination of thrust, fuel, and mass.

While it is in Earth Orbit, though, it can be shot down by the US, China, Russia, and India, assuming they can get their ASAT assets into place.

But if it's successful, someone will talk.
posted by Sunburnt at 7:10 PM on January 27 [1 favorite]


But what would be the benefit of trying to hide this huge technological feats? Countries want to show off their engineering skill, so there's no benefit to hiding stuff like this.

During the Age of Discovery maps were often jealously guarded state secrets. Among other things knowing where the resources are is the first step to exploiting them.

I don’t know it would be worth the trouble for the moon or Mars, but there are likely a lot of valuable metals just floating around in asteroids. If I were a country that thought 100 years ahead, which China is, I would be flooding the asteroid belt with nanoprobes so that my descendants would have useful maps when the time came.

Information can be very valuable, and hiding the fact that you even have the information can be a valuable strategic move.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 6:29 AM on January 28 [1 favorite]


Best answer: In my answer above I was think specifically of Amundsen and Scott in their race to Antartica. Amundsen's expedition was not a secret but he had put it together under the cover of exploring the northern arctic regions.

It was only when Scott was in Australia that he received a telegram from Amundsen saying "See you at the South Pole, MFers" (I'm paraphrasing).

So disguising an expedition as something else isn't totally without precedent.
posted by AndrewStephens at 7:58 AM on January 28 [2 favorites]


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