Seeking the finest punditry on Pennsylvania politics

September 4, 2024 12:12 PM

I have spent very little time in Pennsylvania and I struggle to understand the state's razor-thin swingy-ness. What can you tell me or point me to that would help me better understand, in the context of the 2024 election?

I am an ignorant when it comes to Pennsylvania. I look at Pennsylvania and think, "Well, two big cities where much of the state's population is located, large BIPOC population in Philly, the rest of the state is rural and sorta conservative." Which, if true, would make Pennsylvania more similar to IL, CA, OR, even NY in terms of sheer voting. I mean, half the state lives in the Pittsburgh or Pennsylvania metro areas!

I know there are dynamics I'm missing -- former steel country, Rust Belt, Appalachia, an "Orange is the New Black" character named Pennsatucky, etc. But I just don't feel like I have even the slightest sophistication about Pennsyvlania as a whole.

Are there articles you could point me to in order to better get the politics? I'd be willing to subscribe to a newspaper for a couple months if a paywall is keeping me from some great content, but when I peruse the Philadelphia Inquirer I feel like I don't get a good picture, for some reason. Maybe that's my failing, but anyway, if anyone either has insight or could help me curate a reading list, I would really appreciate it.

posted by kensington314 to Society & Culture (11 answers total)

Best answer: I don't live in PA, but I get a lot of my punditry from Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo. A great feature of this site is that he regularly shares reader emails, and recently he's been sharing emails from people who live in PA, especially western PA, who are giving a snapshot of what it's like there and what they're seeing. The emails began with someone who lives in coal country, and he said that what he sees is a lot of grievance among, especially, white men, who, this guy believes, fundamentally identify with Trump.

After this guy's email, others wrote in sharing their perspective. The most recent was this (hopefully you can read this and it's not paywalled -- but it's relatively inexpensive to become a member of TPM). These are all on-the-ground observations by people who live there, not high-level analysis, but still might give you some sense of things in a very mixed state.
posted by swheatie at 1:04 PM on September 4 [2 favorites]

For a short, neutral introduction to Pennsylvania politics (or the same for any state), I suggest the Almanac of American Politics, published every two years for the past 50 years, most recently in 2024. It's not cheap, but your library may have it, although perhaps not the most recent edition.

For every state, the Almanac spends 5 to 8 pages discussing state's history, economics, geography, politics, etc.; 2-3 pages on its governor and each senator; and 2-3 pages on each congressional district, along with a biography of each congressperson.
posted by hhc5 at 1:39 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]

This is pretty neutral statewide coverage: https://www.spotlightpa.org/

This is Pittsburgh focused lefty: https://www.publicsource.org/

This Pittsburgh alt-weekly does regular candidate comparisons at all levels: https://www.pghcitypaper.com/
posted by hypnogogue at 3:14 PM on September 4 [2 favorites]

Are you looking to help out with money? Here are some close PA races that would benefit:

Chris DeLuzio US House PA 17
Susan Wild US House PA 07
Matt Cartwright US House PA 08
Janelle Stelson US House PA 10

Nicole Ruscitto PA Senate 37
posted by hypnogogue at 3:19 PM on September 4

Response by poster: I'd happily donate money to a candidate of course. But mostly I am just trying to learn about Pennsylvania as a swing state.
posted by kensington314 at 3:21 PM on September 4

If you are interested in GOTV, the city of Philadelphia has historically had low turnout but might be more interested in this year's candidate.
posted by hypnogogue at 3:21 PM on September 4

I don't live in PA, but I get a lot of my punditry from Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo.

Same. TPM knows more than I do about politics, sometimes even where I live (NC).
posted by kingless at 4:18 PM on September 4

Which, if true, would make Pennsylvania more similar to IL, CA, OR, even NY in terms of sheer voting.

Not really. From the Wiki link:
CA: 94.2% Urban
NY: 87.4%
IL: 86.9%
OR: 80.5%
PA: 76.5%

But more specific to PA, if you look at this 2020 county map, there are a lot more deep red countries, and the only deep blue counties are Philly and a couple of its suburbs.

In short, the rural parts of PA carry more weight - similar to Ohio or Michigan. There's a reason why part of Obama's strategy was campaigning in every PA county, with the goal of lessening the margins of loss.
posted by coffeecat at 4:27 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]

(My sister lived in rural PA for a decade or two....)

The conventional wisdom about Pennsylvania that explains why it's so divided is that

"Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia separated by a vast swath of northern Alabama."


The Appalachian Regional Commission considers most of PA to be officially part of Appalachia.
posted by AsYouKnow Bob at 5:45 PM on September 4 [3 favorites]

Best answer: I live just outside of Pittsburgh and have for almost all of my life, with the exception of 10 years in Illinois. Pennsylvania is very much not like Ilinois or any of the other states that you listed. I think AsYouKnow Bob is referring to the famous quote by James Carville, the famous Democratic consultant, who called PA Pittsburgh on one side, Philadelphia on the other, and Alabama in the middle.

As that quote would indicate, culturally, Pennsylvania is really three separate and distinct states: west, central, and east. As a western Pennsylvanian, I can say that our broad culture is closest to Midwestern or Appalachian, and I have much more in common with someone from Ohio or West Virginia than I do with someone from Philadelphia or even central PA. Someone from the city of Philadelphia probably has more in common with a New Yorker than with me. So it's really hard to say "Pennsylvania is X" or "Pennsylvania is Y" because Pennsylvania is really never all one thing. Generally when you hear a political pundit make some kind of statement about Pennsylvania, they're really referring to something about one of these three areas, not the entire state, but they're using the shorthand of the state name.

Pennsylvania also ranks second among states in terms of the number of local governments, which I think has an impact here. I can walk a few blocks in any direction from where I live and be in the city of Pittsburgh or one of three suburbs. So in addition to the breakdown of the state into these different cultures, my experience is that there's an additional isolationism that comes from living in these very small incorporated government areas.

Finally, the Pittsburgh metro area is pretty massive, going almost all the way north to Erie, east almost to the center of the state, west into Ohio, and south to the West Virginia border, and it includes 2.3 million people. The city of Pittsburgh is actually quite small, only about 300k people. The metro area is not the city in terms of politics. I live in a suburb about 15 minutes from downtown and I'm seeing tons of Trump signs. There are some very liberal suburbs (generally very wealthy suburbs), but as a general rule once you get 15 minutes or more out of the city, things get spread out and more conservative-leaning very quickly. Butler, where the Trump assassination attempt took place, is very rural and very, very Trump-y.
posted by anotheraccount at 8:13 AM on September 5 [1 favorite]

Response by poster: Finally, the Pittsburgh metro area is pretty massive, going almost all the way north to Erie, east almost to the center of the state, west into Ohio, and south to the West Virginia border, and it includes 2.3 million people. The city of Pittsburgh is actually quite small, only about 300k people. The metro area is not the city in terms of politics. I live in a suburb about 15 minutes from downtown and I'm seeing tons of Trump signs. There are some very liberal suburbs (generally very wealthy suburbs), but as a general rule once you get 15 minutes or more out of the city, things get spread out and more conservative-leaning very quickly. Butler, where the Trump assassination attempt took place, is very rural and very, very Trump-y.

This is helpful, thanks. So I'm hearing not "large metro population centers" so much as "large metro population centers with vast swaths of more conservative votes." Maybe I'm overcomplicating it: there are two big cities but 50% of the population is conservatives in the suburbs and rural areas. What I'm hearing is we need an exodus of LA people to Pittsburgh, which, I've only been once, but I thought it was a very beautiful city.
posted by kensington314 at 12:27 PM on September 5 [1 favorite]