Where's the city with the most night to see today's solar storm aurora?

July 12, 2023 7:05 AM

I have a little time and thought I'd fly somewhere today and see the solar storm when it hits, and do some aurora photography. But what I can't figure out is where would be optimal. All of alaska is out because by July it never gets fully dark anymore at night. But by the same token I don't want to go to Nebraska and just see a little green on the horizon. What's the right split here geographically?
posted by rileyray3000 to Science & Nature (7 answers total)

possibly nowhere in particular:

Several media reports, starting last week and citing a University of Alaska aurora forecast, had claimed that 17 states — including Maryland — could see the northern lights Thursday, but experts say that is unlikely given current conditions.

“The chances this week [of seeing the northern lights] are slim at latitudes such as Maryland,” said Bill Murtagh, the program coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center. “In northern-tier states, you might see a glow on the horizon.”... “There was never a big storm predicted to begin with,” he said. NOAA has not released a northern lights watch for Thursday, and Murtagh doesn’t expect significant viewing opportunities.

posted by BungaDunga at 7:50 AM on July 12, 2023 [1 favorite]

Where are you starting from?

Anyway, Seattle gets darkness but is still reasonably far north, has planes, and might have clear weather.
posted by madcaptenor at 7:53 AM on July 12, 2023

The aurora forecast got very downgraded. The aurora is dependent on the planetary K level (KP). At KP=5, you can see the aurora at the northern edge of North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At KP=4, you need to get further north than Winnipeg, Manitoba.

The current forecast is that we're not even going to hit KP=4 in the next few days.

Things I've learned in the next few days about the aurora borealis:

- Any predictions about solar storm activity are VERY variable and unpredictable, and if you're hearing hype that's more than 3 days out, it's just based on historical data - not what the sun is doing right now (or in 3 days).

- Refer to this map and the Kp index for an idea of how far north you have to go to see the aurora borealis.

- There are a bunch of places you can access Kp forecast data, including the Aurora mobile app and the University of Alaska Geophysical Institute, but again, they can't really predict more than 3 days out.
posted by Jeanne at 8:14 AM on July 12, 2023 [2 favorites]

Despite the interesting solar activity lately with sunspots and some big flares, there haven't been many significant coronal mass ejections and the ones that have happened haven't really been directed towards Earth -- which is what you'd need for aurora.

For future reference, you don't necessarily need full darkness to see the aurora, especially if it's a really strong storm. It's entirely possible to see and photograph aurora during nautical twilight (when the sun is between 6° and 12° below the horizon).

And if you want to maximize your chances of seeing aurora at lower latitudes in North America, the Great Lakes region is particularly favorable due to the north geomagnetic pole being located on Ellesmere Island, offset from the geographic north pole by several hundred miles (as illustrated in the map Jeanne linked to).
posted by theory at 8:30 AM on July 12, 2023 [1 favorite]

I don't know where that news originated, but it's not reliable. Sometimes there's a couple days' warning, not always. However, the sun has been very active. Genuinely Northern locations still have long days and little darkness. The equinox, when day and night are equal, is in late Sept., so start checking out places you'd like to visit and keep an eye on solar weather reports.
posted by theora55 at 10:34 AM on July 12, 2023

Nowhere, save your money.

The news reports last week were complete fabrications about auroras this week, it doesnt take that long for the solar storms to hit us. There was a cme monday, but models show it missing earth.

Use a reputable space weather site for news about solar storms. I like spaceweather.com but there are plenty of others. The current auroral oval map that nasa puts out is a useful indicator of where to go. But being summer you dont want to go too far north - it doesnt get dark.
posted by TheAdamist at 11:52 AM on July 12, 2023

MPR audio of an interview from the 11th: https://www.mprnews.org/episode/2023/07/11/aurora-northern-lights-forecast-not-easy-science. Text excerpts also at that link.

I was disappointed about the recent overly-hyped prediction, but glad to learn enough to evaluate future predictions for myself.
posted by interbeing at 7:55 PM on July 12, 2023