Help me understand this economics puzzle.
November 12, 2022 10:29 AM Subscribe
The day after Thanksgiving, winter outerwear at every price point (boots and parkas; wool coats) will fly out of the warehouses, as always. But doesn’t almost everyone already have everything they need?
(I’m not talking about kids or adolescents, who are still growing and need new things that fit.)
Are the majority of adults really tossing aside the new winter wear they bought a year ago, two, three, four or five or more years ago in favor of something new? With inflation the way it is? I just can’t believe it to be the case.
And while we’re on it, I’ve never heard an economist state anything like “sales are down because everyone already has their clothing needs covered.”
Excluding new immigrants who may need clothes for an unfamiliar climate, who is doing this wasteful, needless buying?
Are the majority of adults really tossing aside the new winter wear they bought a year ago, two, three, four or five or more years ago in favor of something new? With inflation the way it is? I just can’t believe it to be the case.
And while we’re on it, I’ve never heard an economist state anything like “sales are down because everyone already has their clothing needs covered.”
Excluding new immigrants who may need clothes for an unfamiliar climate, who is doing this wasteful, needless buying?
Sometimes my clothes get holes in them. They wear at stress points. They get washed so much they look like shit. The elastic is shot. The zipper is shot. I got fat. I got thin. My personal taste changed. I had a flush year at work and took a bunch of gently used stuff to donate and got all new stuff for myself. My dog has claimed that one hoodie as a blanket. I moved to an area with a different climate. Sometimes I just like to buy something new, for no reason at all. I got a new job with a different dress code and none of my old stuff is appropriate anymore. I am a consumer whore.
Select from the above as needed.
posted by phunniemee at 10:37 AM on November 12, 2022 [47 favorites]
Select from the above as needed.
posted by phunniemee at 10:37 AM on November 12, 2022 [47 favorites]
The entire purpose of the fashion industry is to make clothes bought even just a year or two ago look dated. Some people care about that, some don't. My mother in law used to buy me a new winter coat every year, but I've always loved the black wool peacoat I already have. So maybe it makes me an asshole, but I donated all those new coats (all along I asked her not to buy them) until she finally stopped. Now my peacoat is getting pretty ratty looking after about 20 years, but it's still warm. I wouldn't wear it to a funeral, but I still love it. I think you and I are the exception to the rule, though.
posted by rikschell at 10:46 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 10:46 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
If a coat can functionally last 10 years on average (which seems like a reasonable estimate to me), then every year about 10% of people need to buy a new one. Ten percent of all adults is a lot of people. And of course not everyone is willing to wait that long in between purchases. Even if a coat is still functional it may start looking a little dingy or may not be sufficiently fashionable for people who like to have the latest look. And not everyone loves their current coat. Some people have the best coat they could afford three years ago but now they're making more money and they want to get a better one. Or they want/need a new one for one of the reasons phunniemee suggests. So I'd expect at least 20% of people are in the market for a new coat every year. And boots need to be replaced even more often, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to me to think that maybe 40% of people have some item of winter wear they would like to replace in any given year.
posted by Redstart at 10:47 AM on November 12, 2022 [33 favorites]
posted by Redstart at 10:47 AM on November 12, 2022 [33 favorites]
I'm not sure I really understand the context of this question, but
Are the majority of adults really tossing aside the new winter wear they bought a year ago, two, three, four or five or more years ago in favor of something new?
Seems very unlikely that the majority of adults would need to be tossing something yearly or even every 5 years for lots of people to still be buying something around the end of Nov. to replace worn out gear. Just fixing US, there are ~250 million adults, and so even super-conservative 1 out of every 20 years on average is 5%, i.e. 12.5 million adults per year. (No idea what the average is in actuality.) And since jackets/boots can be pretty expensive, it wouldn't surprise me if a big chunk of whatever was sold yearly is sold on or around Black Friday because of sales (again, US-centric), and definitely in the late Nov range.
I couldn't find very specific numbers in terms of pieces sold per year, just dollars for various apparel markets, but maybe you encountered some specific numbers you're surprised by -- if so, it might help to post them.
posted by advil at 10:50 AM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Are the majority of adults really tossing aside the new winter wear they bought a year ago, two, three, four or five or more years ago in favor of something new?
Seems very unlikely that the majority of adults would need to be tossing something yearly or even every 5 years for lots of people to still be buying something around the end of Nov. to replace worn out gear. Just fixing US, there are ~250 million adults, and so even super-conservative 1 out of every 20 years on average is 5%, i.e. 12.5 million adults per year. (No idea what the average is in actuality.) And since jackets/boots can be pretty expensive, it wouldn't surprise me if a big chunk of whatever was sold yearly is sold on or around Black Friday because of sales (again, US-centric), and definitely in the late Nov range.
I couldn't find very specific numbers in terms of pieces sold per year, just dollars for various apparel markets, but maybe you encountered some specific numbers you're surprised by -- if so, it might help to post them.
posted by advil at 10:50 AM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
In the last 10 yrs, my office's guidelines on a woman's professional wardrobe transitioned from skirted suits/dresses/heels to pants with blazers to pants with cardigans to dark jeans/quality athleisure to "remember to wear a nice shirt for the zoom call" to "please just show up in the office." I've bought new clothes accordingly even though I still have some very nice 10 yrs old outfits that I occasionally pull out.
Also we bought new clothes due to medical issues affecting our preferences for buttons, zippers, and elastic.
posted by beaning at 10:55 AM on November 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Also we bought new clothes due to medical issues affecting our preferences for buttons, zippers, and elastic.
posted by beaning at 10:55 AM on November 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
But doesn’t almost everyone already have everything they need?
And when do you think they bought it? Exactly, Black Friday last year, or two years ago.
But also, no. People graduating from college might have a North Face fleece but not a work-appropriate overcoat. People who just took up skiing might have that overcoat, but will need a ski jacket.
A couple of years ago, a zipper jammed on my favorite 20-year-old jacket and I had to buy a new one. A few weeks later, I realized that the new jacket wasn’t as warm as I expected, so I ended up buying a third one. But the third one snagged on something and ripped. Time for a fourth. So, after going two decades without buying a jacket, I bought three in one year. Things happen.
And also, sometimes people just want something new. With routine maintenance, you can drive a car for thirty years, and yet there’s still a market for new cars.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:01 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
And when do you think they bought it? Exactly, Black Friday last year, or two years ago.
But also, no. People graduating from college might have a North Face fleece but not a work-appropriate overcoat. People who just took up skiing might have that overcoat, but will need a ski jacket.
A couple of years ago, a zipper jammed on my favorite 20-year-old jacket and I had to buy a new one. A few weeks later, I realized that the new jacket wasn’t as warm as I expected, so I ended up buying a third one. But the third one snagged on something and ripped. Time for a fourth. So, after going two decades without buying a jacket, I bought three in one year. Things happen.
And also, sometimes people just want something new. With routine maintenance, you can drive a car for thirty years, and yet there’s still a market for new cars.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:01 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
And you can have more than one coat. The trim windbreaker coat I wear on brisk winter walks is different from the long wool coat I used to wear to work or nice events, which is different from the oversized comfy weatherproof carhartt I wear when I'm out shoveling the walk or have to drive in bad weather. I have different hats and scarves for each.
Also I am forever losing hats and gloves. And the moths can get to the wool hats, so that's a replacement.
posted by mochapickle at 11:02 AM on November 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Also I am forever losing hats and gloves. And the moths can get to the wool hats, so that's a replacement.
posted by mochapickle at 11:02 AM on November 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Here in Chicago, I'd be happy to have maybe two coats more than the two I already have. Neither of them is really good when it's both cold and raining out. (I feel as if climate change is affecting the number of weather conditions I deal with in the winter and I could spend a bundle mking those changes.)
posted by BibiRose at 11:21 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by BibiRose at 11:21 AM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
People don't always stay the same size. I assume that some people need a new coat because they've gained or lost weight.
People move. I work at a university in a cold climate, and every year we have new students (and presumably faculty and staff) who need warmer winter stuff than they've needed in the past.
Clothes go out of fashion. This isn't really an issue for me, because my warm winter coat was never fashionable, but it may be for people who care about such things.
People's financial circumstances change, and they may be able to afford better stuff than they could in the past. This has not been an issue for me with my coat, but it has been with boots. At some point, I updated my winter boots, because I could afford ones that were higher-quality and warmer than the pair I'd used previously.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 11:32 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
People move. I work at a university in a cold climate, and every year we have new students (and presumably faculty and staff) who need warmer winter stuff than they've needed in the past.
Clothes go out of fashion. This isn't really an issue for me, because my warm winter coat was never fashionable, but it may be for people who care about such things.
People's financial circumstances change, and they may be able to afford better stuff than they could in the past. This has not been an issue for me with my coat, but it has been with boots. At some point, I updated my winter boots, because I could afford ones that were higher-quality and warmer than the pair I'd used previously.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 11:32 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Response by poster: I’m getting the picture. Things happen; circumstances change.
posted by BostonTerrier at 11:43 AM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by BostonTerrier at 11:43 AM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
For those of us with more active lifestyles and/or jobs, winter gear doesn't last very long.
posted by Toddles at 11:54 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Toddles at 11:54 AM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yeah, that Columbia double-layer parka I bought on sale nine years ago? The zipper wore out and couldn't economically be replaced. And I really need that zipper...
Also, adults are growing, too...just in different directions.
posted by lhauser at 11:54 AM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Also, adults are growing, too...just in different directions.
posted by lhauser at 11:54 AM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Plus, you know, clothes wear out. It's not that everybody is buying a new coat. But of 10% of people (in the US, say) are buying a new coat in a given year, then that will be ~33 million new coats sold.
posted by number9dream at 12:17 PM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by number9dream at 12:17 PM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
I just can’t believe it to be the case.
Cheap clothes in particular, and most of them are now, wear out really, really fast. There are still clothing brands out there that make things you can expect to fifteen or twenty years, but they are an awfully expensive outlay.
posted by mhoye at 12:42 PM on November 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Cheap clothes in particular, and most of them are now, wear out really, really fast. There are still clothing brands out there that make things you can expect to fifteen or twenty years, but they are an awfully expensive outlay.
posted by mhoye at 12:42 PM on November 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Until I started wearing Army boots, I basically needed a new pair of boots every year because anything I could afford would spring leaks by the end of a New York winter.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 12:48 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by The Underpants Monster at 12:48 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Best answer: My Dad died in the fullness of his years 22 years ago and I inherited: all his office shirts [N=~20]; one top coat for funerals; one pair of plain black leather shoes for funerals, weddings, interviews. The last tuthree of the shirts are now relegated to gardening. The shoes look fine from above but are a) no longer puddle-proof b) show the hole when I kneel in church; so with regret I'm in the market for new black shoes.
I visited with my PhD supervisor about this time of year a decade ago. That weekend, the was-a-library-now-senior-centre in one of the plusher Western burbs of Boston was having their annual bring sale. The gaffer was delighted to find a new-to-him $5 top-coat for the winter. I complemented him on his choice and said it would last years if he got it dry-cleaned each year. "Are you crazy? It costs more to clean the coat than get another next year".
One final anecdote: a pal of mine took her teenage daughter to a fabric shop so that the youngster could learn how to run up a skirt and a blouse from a paper pattern. She was aghast to find that, in one generation, it had become more expensive to buy fabric from a bolt of cloth than to buy actual clothes ready to wear.
Globalisation means that it is cheaper in The West to buy new rather than make-and-mend. Vimes Law of Boots applies of course.
posted by BobTheScientist at 12:54 PM on November 12, 2022 [12 favorites]
I visited with my PhD supervisor about this time of year a decade ago. That weekend, the was-a-library-now-senior-centre in one of the plusher Western burbs of Boston was having their annual bring sale. The gaffer was delighted to find a new-to-him $5 top-coat for the winter. I complemented him on his choice and said it would last years if he got it dry-cleaned each year. "Are you crazy? It costs more to clean the coat than get another next year".
One final anecdote: a pal of mine took her teenage daughter to a fabric shop so that the youngster could learn how to run up a skirt and a blouse from a paper pattern. She was aghast to find that, in one generation, it had become more expensive to buy fabric from a bolt of cloth than to buy actual clothes ready to wear.
Globalisation means that it is cheaper in The West to buy new rather than make-and-mend. Vimes Law of Boots applies of course.
posted by BobTheScientist at 12:54 PM on November 12, 2022 [12 favorites]
Excluding new immigrants who may need clothes for an unfamiliar climate, who is doing this wasteful, needless buying?
People - not just (sigh) immigrants - move within the US. Even moving from one snowy place to another places different demands on the outerwear you already have.
Personal anecdote: I spent a few decades living in the Great Lakes region, where having winter outerwear is a daily necessity obviously, but where an expensive long down parka meant for sub-minus-10 celsius conditions was too warm to wear except for maybe a dozen times each winter. Then I moved to another part of Canada where -10 C is a balmy December day. So that parka that had lasted through five years of occasional use was now getting daily wear for three months at a time, and got worn out a lot faster than I'd have liked. So unfortunately, I had to commit the mortal sin of buying a new parka. On the bright side, it's typically too cold for road salt here so I don't go through boots as quickly as I did in Southern Ontario.
posted by blerghamot at 1:13 PM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
People - not just (sigh) immigrants - move within the US. Even moving from one snowy place to another places different demands on the outerwear you already have.
Personal anecdote: I spent a few decades living in the Great Lakes region, where having winter outerwear is a daily necessity obviously, but where an expensive long down parka meant for sub-minus-10 celsius conditions was too warm to wear except for maybe a dozen times each winter. Then I moved to another part of Canada where -10 C is a balmy December day. So that parka that had lasted through five years of occasional use was now getting daily wear for three months at a time, and got worn out a lot faster than I'd have liked. So unfortunately, I had to commit the mortal sin of buying a new parka. On the bright side, it's typically too cold for road salt here so I don't go through boots as quickly as I did in Southern Ontario.
posted by blerghamot at 1:13 PM on November 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
I have a variety of coats of different weights and styles for different purposes. My size fluctuates. Things rip in ways that aren't easily mendable. Heck, if I find a coat I absolutely love I might buy it whether or not I need it - there's no harm in having a backup coat, and plus size clothes that look and feel good can be hard to come by. I've got no guarantee another Magically Perfect Coat will be an option for me next year.
I buy boots to last close to forever but coats are temporary fixtures in my life. Or at least that used to be the case. Now between work at home and pandemic precaution, my winter coats have barely left the closet in years. They may end up being my Forever Coats just by virtue of having been the ones I owned in early 2020.
posted by Stacey at 1:16 PM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
I buy boots to last close to forever but coats are temporary fixtures in my life. Or at least that used to be the case. Now between work at home and pandemic precaution, my winter coats have barely left the closet in years. They may end up being my Forever Coats just by virtue of having been the ones I owned in early 2020.
posted by Stacey at 1:16 PM on November 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
I gained weight, man, what’s it to ya
posted by nouvelle-personne at 1:37 PM on November 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by nouvelle-personne at 1:37 PM on November 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
I gained weight and had to buy new cold weather gear. Otherwise I’d stay inside all winter.
Fast fashion is a thing and it applies to coats, too. Lots of people wash coats frequently, and they wear out much faster, as well as losing waterproofing. Cheap trendy jackets don’t last well.
I buy clothes at thrift shops, some of them for the beautiful fabric.
posted by theora55 at 1:38 PM on November 12, 2022
Fast fashion is a thing and it applies to coats, too. Lots of people wash coats frequently, and they wear out much faster, as well as losing waterproofing. Cheap trendy jackets don’t last well.
I buy clothes at thrift shops, some of them for the beautiful fabric.
posted by theora55 at 1:38 PM on November 12, 2022
I believe that cold weather clothing is one of the things people are likely to buy more of in times of hardship and uncertainty - it might not be this well thought out, but if you worry you might not be able to heat your home adequately, or that you might have to sell your car and take the bus, for instance, a good coat would buffer you from anxiety about those possibilities. (Just now I had the thought: I wonder if the end of the Cold War contributed to the collapse of Australian wool prices in the early 90s? But I haven't seen anything written about that level of explanation.)
posted by Cheese Monster at 1:41 PM on November 12, 2022
posted by Cheese Monster at 1:41 PM on November 12, 2022
Here's something else I've noticed - I can wear and enjoy, say, a pair of shoes all summer, and they seem fine. I'll put them away over winter but when I pull them out again in the spring is when I'll really notice how worn and shabby they got over the last summer, and I won't want to wear them anymore. The wear happens so gradually you don't register it day-to-day, but once you haven't seen the item in a while it's really obvious.
posted by 5_13_23_42_69_666 at 1:56 PM on November 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by 5_13_23_42_69_666 at 1:56 PM on November 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
My husband had a surprisingly nice fake-leather jacket for about five years. It performed well for that time. Last year it suddenly delaminated in several places. Not only did it start looking terrible, it no longer kept out wind or rain.
posted by metonym at 5:18 PM on November 12, 2022
posted by metonym at 5:18 PM on November 12, 2022
While there are lots of legitimate reasons to need a new coat, part of this is due to the increase in what is called "fast fashion." I'd suggest watching the documentary The True Cost as an excellent primer on this subject.
posted by FencingGal at 6:49 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by FencingGal at 6:49 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
OK, so y'all made me go try on my winter coat to make sure it still fits. Gonna move the buttons over an inch for comfort.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:10 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:10 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
I moved from San Francisco to Portland, Oregon and the weather here is miserable. I hadn’t owned a heavy coat since I left Massachusetts in 2001. I needed a coat.
posted by bendy at 8:13 PM on November 12, 2022
posted by bendy at 8:13 PM on November 12, 2022
Excluding new immigrants who may need clothes for an unfamiliar climate, who is doing this wasteful, needless buying?
Ummm...what kind of a life do you live where you don't like, use your winter gear?
In a week I'm walking several kilometers a day, driving, stepping in slushy salty parking lots, taking my boots and coats off a ton of times, shovelling snow at like 6 am, shovelling the driveway again, dropping the garbage bag and having it shatter over my boots, going for walks, picking up kids and groceries and stuff, going for hikes or tobogganing on the weekend..my stuff wears out.
Over the pandemic I kept up 10km of walking a day and although I had good boots, they wore weirdly in the lining. I prefer not to have to pay "my coat ripped and I had one hour before the stores closed to get a replacement" full prices when they won't have what I want anyway, when I can buy one on deep sale/second-hand and hang it up and have it ready to go.
Also, re: sales, the times I've let my kids or I get low on options and be minimalist about winter gear, something rips or gets wrecked or sopping wet.
Out of my kids, my husband, and I, even without growing, I would say we buy at least one coat and one pair of boots a year.
posted by warriorqueen at 8:32 PM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Ummm...what kind of a life do you live where you don't like, use your winter gear?
In a week I'm walking several kilometers a day, driving, stepping in slushy salty parking lots, taking my boots and coats off a ton of times, shovelling snow at like 6 am, shovelling the driveway again, dropping the garbage bag and having it shatter over my boots, going for walks, picking up kids and groceries and stuff, going for hikes or tobogganing on the weekend..my stuff wears out.
Over the pandemic I kept up 10km of walking a day and although I had good boots, they wore weirdly in the lining. I prefer not to have to pay "my coat ripped and I had one hour before the stores closed to get a replacement" full prices when they won't have what I want anyway, when I can buy one on deep sale/second-hand and hang it up and have it ready to go.
Also, re: sales, the times I've let my kids or I get low on options and be minimalist about winter gear, something rips or gets wrecked or sopping wet.
Out of my kids, my husband, and I, even without growing, I would say we buy at least one coat and one pair of boots a year.
posted by warriorqueen at 8:32 PM on November 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
IMO, that people are changing sizes is a far bigger aspect of new clothing buying than fashion changes, which is down there with 'clothes wear out' category. Coats simply don't fit anymore. Also yes there is fast fashion, but the number of people who are interested in being fashionable is pretty small, smaller than the number of people who wear out their clothing due to rough jobs, rough wear, or time.
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:11 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by The_Vegetables at 9:11 PM on November 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Fast fashion is a huge part of the answer because it’s made cheaply and wears out quickly, and PSA has nothing to do with being “fashionable;” the opposite if anything.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:04 AM on November 13, 2022
posted by aspersioncast at 8:04 AM on November 13, 2022
Fast fashion is a huge part of the answer because it’s made cheaply and wears out quickly, and PSA has nothing to do with being “fashionable;” the opposite if anything.
But 'wears out quickly' is an abstract notion - it might mean 10 wears over the course of 2 years or 50 wears in a year. It's extremely dependent on the person. I've also been doing a study - I've not found that 'fast fashion' (ie: Old Navy/etc) clothes 'wear out' particularly quick, and the 'cost per wear' is pretty amazing, ie: very easy to get down to less than $1 per wear. But that's just a data point of 1, based on my opinion of wear on my clothing.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:30 AM on November 14, 2022
But 'wears out quickly' is an abstract notion - it might mean 10 wears over the course of 2 years or 50 wears in a year. It's extremely dependent on the person. I've also been doing a study - I've not found that 'fast fashion' (ie: Old Navy/etc) clothes 'wear out' particularly quick, and the 'cost per wear' is pretty amazing, ie: very easy to get down to less than $1 per wear. But that's just a data point of 1, based on my opinion of wear on my clothing.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:30 AM on November 14, 2022
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by SaneCatLady at 10:37 AM on November 12, 2022 [20 favorites]