Curtains for BoJo?
June 6, 2022 8:03 AM Subscribe
So Boris Johnson is currrently facing a confidence vote. I have a question for people who understand UK politics better than me: as I understand it, he recently amended the ministerial code so that ministers are no longer required to step down when they're found to be in breach (of the code). Seems a bit Calvinball to me. If he loses the confidence vote, what's the likelihood that he just refuses to leave and brazens it out? Does Black Rod send ninjas after him or something?
My understanding is that the confidence vote Johnson is facing today is one being conducted within the Conservative Party, not in Parliament as a whole. In other words, the Tories are deciding whether they still want him as the leader of their party. This is different from a "confidence vote" within the House of Commons, where the entire House (government and opposition) votes on whether the current government still commands the confidence of the House.
All this means that Black Rod wouldn't be concerned with this vote; it's an internal party affair. Similarly, the Ministerial Code applies at the level of the government, not the party.
posted by Johnny Assay at 8:21 AM on June 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
All this means that Black Rod wouldn't be concerned with this vote; it's an internal party affair. Similarly, the Ministerial Code applies at the level of the government, not the party.
posted by Johnny Assay at 8:21 AM on June 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Johnson is Prime Minister only by virtue of the fact that he can secure enough votes in the House of Commons to pass legislation. This is because he is the leader of the largest party within the House. However, that party has its own rules about choosing a leader, one way in which to oust a leader is for MPs to vote that they have no confidence (this is the vote today). Should Johnson lose the vote, a leadership contest will then be held by the Conservative party.
It is not impossible for him to refuse to leave, but it is MPs from his own party who would be enforcing those rules, including all his potential rivals. If Johnson decided to try to brazen it out he would be relying on a significant rump of Conservative MPs who had just voted in favour of getting rid of him, then deciding that they want to tear up the rule book of their own party merely to stop him facing a leadership contest. If the vote is against but sufficiently narrow and he has the support of enough/the right Cabinet members then he might well decide it would be easier to hold a leadership contest against a challenger candidate. If he loses comprehensively, then he would lose any leadership contest.
tl;dr Johnson can only do what he likes as long as enough Tories believe he is the right leader for their party, including at least 320+ MPs. If he loses the vote of confidence then by definition he has the support of 179 or fewer MPs.
posted by plonkee at 8:25 AM on June 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
It is not impossible for him to refuse to leave, but it is MPs from his own party who would be enforcing those rules, including all his potential rivals. If Johnson decided to try to brazen it out he would be relying on a significant rump of Conservative MPs who had just voted in favour of getting rid of him, then deciding that they want to tear up the rule book of their own party merely to stop him facing a leadership contest. If the vote is against but sufficiently narrow and he has the support of enough/the right Cabinet members then he might well decide it would be easier to hold a leadership contest against a challenger candidate. If he loses comprehensively, then he would lose any leadership contest.
tl;dr Johnson can only do what he likes as long as enough Tories believe he is the right leader for their party, including at least 320+ MPs. If he loses the vote of confidence then by definition he has the support of 179 or fewer MPs.
posted by plonkee at 8:25 AM on June 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also, regardless of what happens, there is never* no PM. Johnson remains PM until the Queen appoints a new one.
*no idea what happens if someone dies in office, but otherwise the longest gap is the time between the outgoing PM leaving the Palace and the incoming one arriving and getting the nod.
posted by plonkee at 8:30 AM on June 6, 2022
*no idea what happens if someone dies in office, but otherwise the longest gap is the time between the outgoing PM leaving the Palace and the incoming one arriving and getting the nod.
posted by plonkee at 8:30 AM on June 6, 2022
There’s a good article about it here.
The messiest scenario would be BJ loses the party leadership but refuses to step down as Prime Minister. At that point it would need a vote of no confidence in the Commons to get rid of him, but if he could persuade the party that they’d rather he carry on as PM, rather than trigger a general election, he could conceivably win that VONC and carry on as Prime Minister without being leader of the Conservative party. After all, ‘leader of the Conservative party’ is not a role with any constitutional significance in itself.
In principle the Queen could sack him, but we’d be way into uncharted waters whatever happened.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 8:41 AM on June 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
The messiest scenario would be BJ loses the party leadership but refuses to step down as Prime Minister. At that point it would need a vote of no confidence in the Commons to get rid of him, but if he could persuade the party that they’d rather he carry on as PM, rather than trigger a general election, he could conceivably win that VONC and carry on as Prime Minister without being leader of the Conservative party. After all, ‘leader of the Conservative party’ is not a role with any constitutional significance in itself.
In principle the Queen could sack him, but we’d be way into uncharted waters whatever happened.
posted by Bloxworth Snout at 8:41 AM on June 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
no idea what happens if someone dies in office, but otherwise the longest gap is the time between the outgoing PM leaving the Palace and the incoming one arriving and getting the nod.
I asked about this over on StackExchange back when BoJo got COVID-19 in early 2020. The answer is that the office of the Prime Minister does indeed become vacant until the Crown appoints someone else who can command the confidence of Parliament. Most likely the ruling party would swiftly appoint an interim leader, whom the Crown would appoint as PM.
posted by Johnny Assay at 8:44 AM on June 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
I asked about this over on StackExchange back when BoJo got COVID-19 in early 2020. The answer is that the office of the Prime Minister does indeed become vacant until the Crown appoints someone else who can command the confidence of Parliament. Most likely the ruling party would swiftly appoint an interim leader, whom the Crown would appoint as PM.
posted by Johnny Assay at 8:44 AM on June 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
The ministerial code doesn't really apply here either. Substantial parts of the British constitution operate on what Peter Hennesy calls the "good chaps theory" i.e. there's certain things that you just don't do but many of the institutions to police that don't actually have enforcement powers.
So for example, the ministerial code previously said a minister should resign if in breach of the code but that was essentially a voluntary standard which only works as long as the PM says it should and requires a resignation from ministers found to be in breach. Priti Patel was found to have bullied her staff but the PM decided that her behaviour didn't rise to a breach of the code and therefore she didn't resign. He could equally have just said that it was a breach but he wouldn't require her resignation to the same effect.
posted by atrazine at 9:55 AM on June 6, 2022
So for example, the ministerial code previously said a minister should resign if in breach of the code but that was essentially a voluntary standard which only works as long as the PM says it should and requires a resignation from ministers found to be in breach. Priti Patel was found to have bullied her staff but the PM decided that her behaviour didn't rise to a breach of the code and therefore she didn't resign. He could equally have just said that it was a breach but he wouldn't require her resignation to the same effect.
posted by atrazine at 9:55 AM on June 6, 2022
what happens if someone dies in office
All parties have a Deputy Leader; for the party in government, that is the Deputy Prime Minister (currently Dominic Raab, ughh). That is what they are for.
If a party leader dies, or has to resign immediately, it triggers a leadership contest within the party; but the Deputy Leader would be in charge till there was a result. When Labour leader John Smith died of a sudden heart attack in 1994, Margaret Beckett was Deputy Leader, and she led the party for ten weeks until the contest was resolved (in which she stood but came last; Tony Blair won).
Usually when a leader (or PM) resigns, they stay in place while the leadership contest to succeed them is happening.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:55 PM on June 6, 2022
All parties have a Deputy Leader; for the party in government, that is the Deputy Prime Minister (currently Dominic Raab, ughh). That is what they are for.
If a party leader dies, or has to resign immediately, it triggers a leadership contest within the party; but the Deputy Leader would be in charge till there was a result. When Labour leader John Smith died of a sudden heart attack in 1994, Margaret Beckett was Deputy Leader, and she led the party for ten weeks until the contest was resolved (in which she stood but came last; Tony Blair won).
Usually when a leader (or PM) resigns, they stay in place while the leadership contest to succeed them is happening.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:55 PM on June 6, 2022
Actually it isn't required for parties to have a deputy leader. The Labour party has an elected deputy leader, but the Conservative party hasn't had a deputy leader since 2005 and the post has frequently been vacant. Raab isn't actually the deputy leader and they currently don't have one.
The office of deputy PM is often left unfilled. Between Attlee and Heseltine (men who are not otherwise put in the same category very often) there was no deputy PM at all.
In fact, when Beckett became temporary Labour leader there was no deputy PM (Heseltine was appointed DPM in 1995)
The deputy PM also has no automatic right to become PM. (When Attlee was DPM, Churchill's suggested alternative to the king was Eden and not Attlee). The Cabinet Office has indicated that in appointing a PM, the monarch would take soundings of the cabinet and appoint a senior member of the party in power (potentially a less senior but acceptable compromise member if there was likely to be a contested leadership election) but it remains technically a royal prerogative.
posted by atrazine at 7:22 AM on June 7, 2022
The office of deputy PM is often left unfilled. Between Attlee and Heseltine (men who are not otherwise put in the same category very often) there was no deputy PM at all.
In fact, when Beckett became temporary Labour leader there was no deputy PM (Heseltine was appointed DPM in 1995)
The deputy PM also has no automatic right to become PM. (When Attlee was DPM, Churchill's suggested alternative to the king was Eden and not Attlee). The Cabinet Office has indicated that in appointing a PM, the monarch would take soundings of the cabinet and appoint a senior member of the party in power (potentially a less senior but acceptable compromise member if there was likely to be a contested leadership election) but it remains technically a royal prerogative.
posted by atrazine at 7:22 AM on June 7, 2022
This thread is closed to new comments.
If he wins the vote, even by a narrow margin, he'll most likely try to brazen it out. But that hasn't gone well for previous leaders (Thatcher, May) who have "won" confidence votes in the past. They ended up resigning anyway, a short time later - only a resounding landslide victory in the confidence vote would actually restore any confidence at this point - and that seems unlikely.
More here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/06/how-would-a-vote-of-no-confidence-in-boris-johnson-work
posted by rd45 at 8:21 AM on June 6, 2022 [6 favorites]