Travel to Republic of Georgia now

April 27, 2022 5:33 AM

I asked a similar question a few weeks ago but the world is changing fast and I would like to see if there are updates. I am planning a trip to Tbilisi next month for work and am concerned about what might happen with Russia.

What are the risks of a Russian invasion of the Republic of Georgia soon?

First of all, of course, I am concerned about the people of the Republic of Georgia and for the world if the war continues to spread. However, for the purposes of this question I'm focusing on myself and my own plans.

For serious family obligations reasons, it would be very bad if I were unable to leave Georgia as scheduled at the end of my trip. Therefore I also am wondering if, even without an invasion, there are risks of disruptions to travel based on Russia's possible threats.

I would like to read a journalistic or policy analysis of Russia's probability of invading other neighboring countries over the next few months.

posted by little striped mule to Travel & Transportation around Batumi, Georgia (4 answers total)

The U.S. Department of State does exactly what you're looking for. It has links for updates on health and security issues in the Republic of Georgia, which include a Smart Traveler Program, which sends status alerts, a Country Security Report and a Traveler's Checklist.
posted by Violet Blue at 6:02 AM on April 27, 2022

Response by poster: Thank you VIolet Blue! I'm aware of the Dept of State website, and it is helpful for some things, but I'm looking for more of an analysis of what might happen in the coming weeks, because that govt. website is not doing any predicting of what potentially might happen with impacts from the war.
posted by little striped mule at 6:55 AM on April 27, 2022

Ah, I see your dilemma. I will take this as a challenge. :)

Try Olga Lautman on Substack. She writes on Russia and Eastern Europe almost every day, and yesterday's dispatch was an analysis of Moldava's safety. Al Jazeera is worth keeping an eye on. Newsnow appears to live up to its name. Georgia Today is a local paper, but in English. For other news sources to peruse, search for "Georgia and Eastern European news."
posted by Violet Blue at 9:58 AM on April 27, 2022 [1 favorite]

I don’t see any real policy analysis of whether this might happen on the timeline you’re discussing, which I take as a good sign (it’s not seen as possible enough to occupy people enough to write about it). For my own part, it seems like Russia is struggling in Ukraine presently, and opening up a second front would be strategically idiotic (as well as hard to justify to the Russian people, especially without a phase of preparatory saber-rattling). Not that that 100 percent rules it out, of course.

Here are some articles that relate, but over a longer timescale:

The Kremlin’s Next Targets: Georgia and Moldova

South Ossetian Leader Suggests Referendum
On Joining Russia

New security environment in Europe amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine: A view from Georgia
posted by hungrytiger at 11:43 AM on April 27, 2022 [1 favorite]