Is It Safe NOW Right This Second?
April 26, 2022 2:05 PM Subscribe
Please link me to the absolutely, positively, most up-to-date web site you know of with COVID travel advisory info, preferably domestic. Or - tell me if I'm being way too paranoid.
In ten days, I am due to fly from NYC to Pennsylvania to attend a family event. I'm hearing some rumblings about a new variant and am wondering if "Oh God should I consider cancelling"; there are just as many arguments in favor of going (I'm vaxxed and boosted, I mask up without complaint on all public transit and in the supermarket, the new variant is only in China at the moment) as there are in favor of skipping it (a couple people at work just got mild cases of COVID - no one I was in any contact with, fortunately, but still).
So I've decided to let monitoring the state of the outbreak decide. And because the timing is so tight I want to make sure I am getting the ABSOLUTELY most up-to-date information that exists.
In ten days, I am due to fly from NYC to Pennsylvania to attend a family event. I'm hearing some rumblings about a new variant and am wondering if "Oh God should I consider cancelling"; there are just as many arguments in favor of going (I'm vaxxed and boosted, I mask up without complaint on all public transit and in the supermarket, the new variant is only in China at the moment) as there are in favor of skipping it (a couple people at work just got mild cases of COVID - no one I was in any contact with, fortunately, but still).
So I've decided to let monitoring the state of the outbreak decide. And because the timing is so tight I want to make sure I am getting the ABSOLUTELY most up-to-date information that exists.
Microcovid stays up to date with probability of getting covid. You'll find that air travel isn't that bad, but maybe that the family gathering itself is higher risk.
They always recommend MODing events: mask, outdoor, and distance, if possible.
posted by bbqturtle at 2:36 PM on April 26, 2022
They always recommend MODing events: mask, outdoor, and distance, if possible.
posted by bbqturtle at 2:36 PM on April 26, 2022
Well, someone in my household came back from traveling to an event with Covid, and then I got it, last week. Not a fan of the whole landscape.
You are allowed to be smarter than the general population.
posted by amtho at 2:38 PM on April 26, 2022 [19 favorites]
You are allowed to be smarter than the general population.
posted by amtho at 2:38 PM on April 26, 2022 [19 favorites]
I'm fine now, btw, except for the residual cough I always get after having a respiratory infection -- and which I'd avoided for years before this.
posted by amtho at 2:39 PM on April 26, 2022
posted by amtho at 2:39 PM on April 26, 2022
Link
The most up to date case count/positivity rate/etc tracker still using the old metrics and not the new CDC criteria for assessing risk (“is there room in the hospital for you”) that I’ve been using is via the New York Times, linked above. Was also going to link microcovid for you, just as a previous poster above did!
posted by blue suede stockings at 2:39 PM on April 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
The most up to date case count/positivity rate/etc tracker still using the old metrics and not the new CDC criteria for assessing risk (“is there room in the hospital for you”) that I’ve been using is via the New York Times, linked above. Was also going to link microcovid for you, just as a previous poster above did!
posted by blue suede stockings at 2:39 PM on April 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
For what it's worth, the "new variant" isn't just in China. It's just that they are having an outbreak there for a variety of complex reasons. We are dealing with a number of Omicron variants (the BA.2 strain primarily) here too, including in NYC.
You are probably OK to travel. The airlines have spent a lot of time and effort to get ventilation and other mitigations going, and you are still allowed to wear a mask on the plane. I would be much more worried about the gathering itself. Who else will be there? How seriously are they taking mitigation measures? Will you be outside? Will you wear a mask most of the time? And so on.
You may want to check the Pennsylvania Covid-19 dashboard for the county where the event is taking place, to see what the landscape looks like at the exact location of the event.
posted by gemmy at 2:43 PM on April 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
You are probably OK to travel. The airlines have spent a lot of time and effort to get ventilation and other mitigations going, and you are still allowed to wear a mask on the plane. I would be much more worried about the gathering itself. Who else will be there? How seriously are they taking mitigation measures? Will you be outside? Will you wear a mask most of the time? And so on.
You may want to check the Pennsylvania Covid-19 dashboard for the county where the event is taking place, to see what the landscape looks like at the exact location of the event.
posted by gemmy at 2:43 PM on April 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
The newest variants, BA.2 and, even more worrisome, BA.2.12.1 are very much here and are extremely contagious. I know multiple people who have been very strict during all of pandemic and only just now got their first infections. Boosters are wearing off and many people have decided to embrace the corporate POV that COVID is over and/or that it's now just a seasonal virus.
I've been following the wastewater tracking as much of the tracked, individual testing has been reduced and more infections are being identified with unreported home tests. Also, the CDC has changed some of the tracking parameters to make the infection "hotness" maps to look much safer than they used to.
posted by quince at 2:44 PM on April 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
I've been following the wastewater tracking as much of the tracked, individual testing has been reduced and more infections are being identified with unreported home tests. Also, the CDC has changed some of the tracking parameters to make the infection "hotness" maps to look much safer than they used to.
posted by quince at 2:44 PM on April 26, 2022 [13 favorites]
BA.2.12.1 is going gangbusters in NJ/NY and is "nowcasted" to be a majority of the infections. Seems like the only real difference is that it is somehow more infectious than the previous iterations of Omicron, BA.1 and BA.2.
posted by BungaDunga at 2:54 PM on April 26, 2022
posted by BungaDunga at 2:54 PM on April 26, 2022
The variants that are rising in frequency that are relevant to you on a ten-day timescale are BA.2.12.1, which is a subvariant of BA.2 which seems to be spreading significantly better than BA.2 (which spread better than BA.1, the original Omicron).
It is already the dominant variant in NY and likely dominant in Pennsylvania as well. It is likely to account for the vast majority of infections in both places in ten days. So far, it appears to spread somewhat better than BA.2 (I've seen a few different numbers around 25-30% better), which might be intrinsic transmissibility or be better immune escape from vaccination or prior infection, but doesn't seem to cause any worse illness. Balancing against this infectiveness is the large number of people who have been infected in the last few months and have some immunity. You can see variant data from the CDC here.
BA.4 and BA.5 are dominant in different regions of South Africa, with similar profiles to BA.2.12.1 (more transmissible, not more severe as far as we know). Neither have been found in the US yet, though they have been found in many other countries and it wouldn't be a surprise if they were in the US. At this point, it probably doesn't matter because BA.4 and BA.5 seem pretty similar to BA.2.12.1.
I don't think there is any particularly concerning news coming out of China right now. New variants are found all the time and most of them don't go anywhere.
posted by ssg at 2:59 PM on April 26, 2022
It is already the dominant variant in NY and likely dominant in Pennsylvania as well. It is likely to account for the vast majority of infections in both places in ten days. So far, it appears to spread somewhat better than BA.2 (I've seen a few different numbers around 25-30% better), which might be intrinsic transmissibility or be better immune escape from vaccination or prior infection, but doesn't seem to cause any worse illness. Balancing against this infectiveness is the large number of people who have been infected in the last few months and have some immunity. You can see variant data from the CDC here.
BA.4 and BA.5 are dominant in different regions of South Africa, with similar profiles to BA.2.12.1 (more transmissible, not more severe as far as we know). Neither have been found in the US yet, though they have been found in many other countries and it wouldn't be a surprise if they were in the US. At this point, it probably doesn't matter because BA.4 and BA.5 seem pretty similar to BA.2.12.1.
I don't think there is any particularly concerning news coming out of China right now. New variants are found all the time and most of them don't go anywhere.
posted by ssg at 2:59 PM on April 26, 2022
Aren’t rates higher where you are than where you’re going? You can get estimates from covidactnow.org, although I recommend ignoring the qualitative assessment and looking at the number (unless your question is really limited to “are hospitals filling up with COVID patients?” — which is what the community levels are principally tied to).
I too would worry less about the transit than about the party. I hate the “allowed to mask” framing — what I would say is that if you plan well and mask consistently you may be able to minimize your exposure during transit without too much suffering. You’ll feel like a weirdo, but I doubt you’ll get overt pressure to remove your mask except briefly from the TSA. It is harder to imagine avoiding such pressure at a party, especially a family party.
You will get no encouragement from any US institution to change your plans, I think. Leaders are doubling down on “infections don’t matter,” as far as I can tell.
Re: being allowed to choose differently than others: there was a poignant Twitter thread recently comparing our COVID situation to this absurdist play.
posted by eirias at 3:15 PM on April 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
I too would worry less about the transit than about the party. I hate the “allowed to mask” framing — what I would say is that if you plan well and mask consistently you may be able to minimize your exposure during transit without too much suffering. You’ll feel like a weirdo, but I doubt you’ll get overt pressure to remove your mask except briefly from the TSA. It is harder to imagine avoiding such pressure at a party, especially a family party.
You will get no encouragement from any US institution to change your plans, I think. Leaders are doubling down on “infections don’t matter,” as far as I can tell.
Re: being allowed to choose differently than others: there was a poignant Twitter thread recently comparing our COVID situation to this absurdist play.
posted by eirias at 3:15 PM on April 26, 2022 [12 favorites]
Spotlight PA shows some growing hot zones in that state, pulling info from the New York Times and the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services; the tracker notes its own limitations. "Up-to-date" information is still a snapshot of what was happening days to weeks ago, because of delays in receiving, aggregating, and analyzing data to generate (often incomplete, due to under-testing, miscategorizing, etc.) reports.
[You'll be masked, like a sensible person, but most US airlines (if not all?) dropped that requirement for domestic flights last week. There will be a lot more bare faces in the airports, too. Mask + face shield? Or: NYC to where in PA? Instead of the short flight, is a long drive (to lessen some of the uncertainty and risk) an option?]
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:25 PM on April 26, 2022
[You'll be masked, like a sensible person, but most US airlines (if not all?) dropped that requirement for domestic flights last week. There will be a lot more bare faces in the airports, too. Mask + face shield? Or: NYC to where in PA? Instead of the short flight, is a long drive (to lessen some of the uncertainty and risk) an option?]
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:25 PM on April 26, 2022
Complete anecdata: I felt 100% comfortable flying from Pittsburgh to Chicago to visit friends this past weekend. I stayed with a couple and spent most of my time at their home with them. The wife had gone to a happy hour at a bar earlier in the week and tested positive for COVID on Sunday. Her husband tested positive yesterday. I'm still negative but know that it's probably only a matter of time.
I ended up having to pay for a hotel for the last day I was there and then pay to change my flight to come home a day early. Could've been way worse, though – if I had tested positive before I could come back, I would've had to pay for that hotel for 10+ days as well as for a housesitter to stay with my dogs for that whole time.
posted by anotheraccount at 3:29 PM on April 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
I ended up having to pay for a hotel for the last day I was there and then pay to change my flight to come home a day early. Could've been way worse, though – if I had tested positive before I could come back, I would've had to pay for that hotel for 10+ days as well as for a housesitter to stay with my dogs for that whole time.
posted by anotheraccount at 3:29 PM on April 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
So one thing to consider is how recently you got your booster. Seems like immunity wanes.
Also please remember that Covid cases now are often going unreported (as people test at home) and also today's numbers reflect transmission a handful of days ago.
I have been using Covid Metrics info here.
posted by bluedaisy at 3:30 PM on April 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also please remember that Covid cases now are often going unreported (as people test at home) and also today's numbers reflect transmission a handful of days ago.
I have been using Covid Metrics info here.
posted by bluedaisy at 3:30 PM on April 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
You’re not being paranoid, it's pretty COVIDy out there right now. I’m a cavalier maniac and survived a trip to Disney World in March unscathed, only to get COVID at work (alongside about half my NYC office, all of us having evaded it for the previous two years) two weeks ago. I’d say going to a wedding right now means assuming a solid risk that you’ll contract it, it’s up to you what to do with that information. I’d go to the wedding but again, I went to Disney World.
posted by cakelite at 3:37 PM on April 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by cakelite at 3:37 PM on April 26, 2022 [6 favorites]
One thing to add to your calculation, along with positivity rates, is that COVID is a much less deadly disease than it was two years ago, due to multiple factors: immunity from vaccination, immunity from previous COVID infections, vastly improved treatment regimens, and possibly less deadly variants. Vaccinated people like you are substantially less likely to face severe disease. Paxlovid is very effective and its alternative Molnupiravir is also substantially effective. And for folks who do develop severe disease and hospitalization, we have well established treatment regimens of steroid treatments.
That is not to say one should be cavalier - I still wear an N95 in most indoor contexts - and elderly people and people with other severe illnesses are still at risk of hospitalization and death. But when you ask about safety, this information may be part of your calculus.
County and state public health department websites may offer the most up to date information, although in my county for example the data trails by about 1 week.
posted by latkes at 4:58 PM on April 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
That is not to say one should be cavalier - I still wear an N95 in most indoor contexts - and elderly people and people with other severe illnesses are still at risk of hospitalization and death. But when you ask about safety, this information may be part of your calculus.
County and state public health department websites may offer the most up to date information, although in my county for example the data trails by about 1 week.
posted by latkes at 4:58 PM on April 26, 2022 [7 favorites]
Case counts are higher than they were during Delta, at least in the tristate area. The Walgreens Covid-19 index tracker is surprisingly insightful and has tipped me well into the "stay home even more than I already was" category. Note that there are multiple slides (click through at the bottom) and that the positivity rate is highest among people with three doses of the vaccine more than 5 months ago. (This makes perfect sense - if you are vaccinated you are more likely to only be getting a validated test because you already know you have COVID from a home test. I don't think it means you are safer with NO vaccination, I think it means testing behavior is different in those groups. Partially because soooooooo many triple vaxxed people are getting their first infection right now.)
Does the wedding have a vaccination policy? A test negative policy? Will most people be traveling? How long are you planning on being AT the wedding? Will you keep an N95 mask on at all times?
posted by Bottlecap at 5:02 PM on April 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Does the wedding have a vaccination policy? A test negative policy? Will most people be traveling? How long are you planning on being AT the wedding? Will you keep an N95 mask on at all times?
posted by Bottlecap at 5:02 PM on April 26, 2022 [4 favorites]
Does the wedding have a vaccination policy? A test negative policy? Will most people be traveling? How long are you planning on being AT the wedding? Will you keep an N95 mask on at all times?
These are really good questions. We went to a wedding weekend before last, knowing that the people likely to attend would probably give a shit* about the stated request that everyone be vaccinated and not known exposed, but also knowing many of them are in the entertainment business which has been at least semi-back for months.
We did NOT get covid, but a total of 6 of us guests (plus all the staff) wore masks at all and dinner was inside so your choice was not eat or take your mask off. I don't know if anyone else there got sick, but none of our friends or their mutuals have mentioned it. We lucked out, but we also didn't speak during the seated mealtime and escaped outside long before most people got up from the table doing shouting and singing and stuff. We got boosted about 16 days beforehand.
*Understand that for a lot of people now their personal responsibility policy is just "lie and do what you want". People can set all the policies they want, it's not going to stop half the guests from licking all the balls at the bowling alley nonstop for 5 days beforehand because they've never heard the word quarantine in their lives.
posted by Lyn Never at 6:39 PM on April 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
These are really good questions. We went to a wedding weekend before last, knowing that the people likely to attend would probably give a shit* about the stated request that everyone be vaccinated and not known exposed, but also knowing many of them are in the entertainment business which has been at least semi-back for months.
We did NOT get covid, but a total of 6 of us guests (plus all the staff) wore masks at all and dinner was inside so your choice was not eat or take your mask off. I don't know if anyone else there got sick, but none of our friends or their mutuals have mentioned it. We lucked out, but we also didn't speak during the seated mealtime and escaped outside long before most people got up from the table doing shouting and singing and stuff. We got boosted about 16 days beforehand.
*Understand that for a lot of people now their personal responsibility policy is just "lie and do what you want". People can set all the policies they want, it's not going to stop half the guests from licking all the balls at the bowling alley nonstop for 5 days beforehand because they've never heard the word quarantine in their lives.
posted by Lyn Never at 6:39 PM on April 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Not sure where in Pennsylvania, but my work’s office is in Pittsburgh and a friend said on a call Thursday she knows a lot of people sick with covid at the moment. Just sharing that as anecdotal info, as I think the trackers linked above, the risk profile of the attendees at the gathering and vaccine status for all are more important things for you to consider.
posted by glaucon at 7:35 PM on April 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by glaucon at 7:35 PM on April 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Folks, Ask Metafilter isn't the spot to argue or insult people over whether it's okay to worry about Covid / variants. Going forward, please just answer the question about what is the most up-to-date web site with U.S. COVID travel advisory info, or any additional info directly related to this question. Thank you.
posted by taz (staff) at 1:02 AM on April 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 1:02 AM on April 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: Just a couple redirects:
The family event in question is NOT a wedding, it's a First Communion; my cousin's daughter is my goddaughter. There's a church component, and there's going to be a much smaller gathering at my cousin's house after for a handful of family members.
But my cousin HAS always been really vigilant about family members being safe around her kids (when they were born she sent out a list of vaccinations we all had to be up to date on just to meet them), so...I think I'll talk to her about this as well. But knowing the most-current data will still absolutely help too (and may help US with that).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:54 AM on April 27, 2022
The family event in question is NOT a wedding, it's a First Communion; my cousin's daughter is my goddaughter. There's a church component, and there's going to be a much smaller gathering at my cousin's house after for a handful of family members.
But my cousin HAS always been really vigilant about family members being safe around her kids (when they were born she sent out a list of vaccinations we all had to be up to date on just to meet them), so...I think I'll talk to her about this as well. But knowing the most-current data will still absolutely help too (and may help US with that).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:54 AM on April 27, 2022
If your cautious cousin is the host, and it’s not the kind of event with a sit down meal, that bodes well for it being socially feasible to stay masked, and maybe even for a conversation with the cousin about ventilation and filtration. That really does seem like a situation in which you’ll be able to manage your own risk adequately if you go.
In case this is part of your reasoning, I personally would not infer from that anything like “the people attending will be cautious people around whom it’s 100% safe to unmask.” It seems to me that people tend to have this belief that their own loved ones are somehow above infectious disease (and relatedly that foreigners are full of it) but I just don’t think that’s how it works, not with something this contagious and spread this uncontrolled. I don’t know your rationale for playing it safe so I don’t know how much it matters if you do make a losing bet on this. If a sense of public responsibility is part of it, you can always reduce contacts a bit for a few days after the event and then do a rapid test to check yourself, even if you do wind up spending some risk points on this.
posted by eirias at 6:12 AM on April 27, 2022
In case this is part of your reasoning, I personally would not infer from that anything like “the people attending will be cautious people around whom it’s 100% safe to unmask.” It seems to me that people tend to have this belief that their own loved ones are somehow above infectious disease (and relatedly that foreigners are full of it) but I just don’t think that’s how it works, not with something this contagious and spread this uncontrolled. I don’t know your rationale for playing it safe so I don’t know how much it matters if you do make a losing bet on this. If a sense of public responsibility is part of it, you can always reduce contacts a bit for a few days after the event and then do a rapid test to check yourself, even if you do wind up spending some risk points on this.
posted by eirias at 6:12 AM on April 27, 2022
In order to do your risk math in that case, you'd need to know how many total children (over-5s and under-5s) will be involved in the various festivities and whether they go to school or daycare (or anywhere, basically). I believe you that your cousin is cautious, but all my friends with kids have been forced to make choices that only have a strained relationship with the actual concept of caution.
posted by Lyn Never at 7:56 AM on April 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Lyn Never at 7:56 AM on April 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
On a non-medical note, prepare yourself mentally for being around a lot of unmasked people. I’ve been flying a lot and had to come home after the mask mandate lifted. While I sat at LaGuardia I counted that out of 22 people around me only 2 wore masks and a few had them nearby (on arm, chin, etc.). My plane was less than 50% masked. I’m mentioning this as more of a warning to get in the right headspace when you travel so you can deal with seeing unmasked strangers if you’re used to being masked like me.
posted by Bunglegirl at 5:35 PM on April 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bunglegirl at 5:35 PM on April 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm vaxxed and boostedThis plus your age is basically all you need to know. The vaccines are highly effective. A serious infection is not within the realm of normal concern unless there's some other factor you're not sharing.
The clearest way to see this is to look at graphs of deaths and/or hospitalizations (not cases) by age and vaccination status. This requires some fiddling with the CDC's Covid Data Tracker — perhaps the simplest path is to scroll down to the second chart at that link, "Rates of COVID-19 Cases by Vaccination Status and Booster Dose", click the "Age Group" button above it, then switch to "Deaths" in the radio button on the left. The data relevant to you would be the completely flat solid blue line at zero of the second sub-chart. (Hospitalization rates do not seem to be in this data set but they are quite similar.)
You're a relatively healthy, relatively young, thrice-vaccinated person. To pretend you're at serious risk is science denial that undermines trust in the vaccines. If you get infected the two most likely outcomes, by far, are to not notice or to feel like you have a mild cold. You can move heaven and earth to avoid such an outcome but that is, yes, "way too paranoid".
posted by daveliepmann at 3:20 AM on April 28, 2022 [1 favorite]
Response by poster: daveliepmann - bless your heart, but I'm in my 50s so "relatively young" ain't quite the case! :-)
I talked to my cousin - she said that the event is indeed going ahead, but that cases are very low where she is, and she and her family still masks up in church anyway (and she was pleased to hear I was already expecting to do the same). I said I would be bringing a rapid test with me to take the morning of the event just in case.
Even better - we were also discussing how I also masked up several places in New York still, and she said that she'd heard that cases were a little higher in New York - and then suddenly she said "ohhhh, wait, I bet that's why you're staying in your own place." I just said "......yes, that's exactly it. Of course." :-)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:22 AM on April 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
I talked to my cousin - she said that the event is indeed going ahead, but that cases are very low where she is, and she and her family still masks up in church anyway (and she was pleased to hear I was already expecting to do the same). I said I would be bringing a rapid test with me to take the morning of the event just in case.
Even better - we were also discussing how I also masked up several places in New York still, and she said that she'd heard that cases were a little higher in New York - and then suddenly she said "ohhhh, wait, I bet that's why you're staying in your own place." I just said "......yes, that's exactly it. Of course." :-)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:22 AM on April 28, 2022 [2 favorites]
« Older Cartoon lightning bolts or fascist insignias? | I'm looking for the song with the curly hair? Newer »
This thread is closed to new comments.
Here's the CDC, but be aware that they changed the guidelines for what counts as "low" community transmission last month to make community spread levels look like they've gone down when they haven't.
posted by decathecting at 2:16 PM on April 26, 2022 [11 favorites]