Safe Covid window after travel
December 16, 2021 7:24 PM Subscribe
I'm bubbled with a family. They went on a trip. When is it safe to see them?
They got tested just before flying home, and tested again 3 days after arriving home. Our toddlers play together indoors, unmasked, in close contact. We feel comfortable with each other's usual safety precautions, but travel feels different because of the shared air on a long flight (Israel to North America).
Thanks!
They got tested just before flying home, and tested again 3 days after arriving home. Our toddlers play together indoors, unmasked, in close contact. We feel comfortable with each other's usual safety precautions, but travel feels different because of the shared air on a long flight (Israel to North America).
Thanks!
The "microcovid" risk calculator is useful for thinking about these kind of things.
https://www.microcovid.org/
In this case, you're looking at a sort of second-order effect: what is their risk of being infected given their recent travel, and then, what is your risk of getting infected if they were infected from their travel.
You could probably cook up two scenarios and see how they might work back-to-back: "risk from their travel", and "risk from hanging out together indoors."
Estimating risk from the two step process would involve multiplying the separate probabilities together - e.g. if they have a 10% chance of being infected and a 10% chance of passing it on to you, then the cumulative probability is (0.1)*(0.1) = 0.01 = 1%.
The microcovid numbers are expressed in 1-in-a-million (hence, micro) so you would need to divide by 1000000 to get a fraction before multiplying them together.
And of course they are just estimates as well, but at least they could give some numbers to your thinking.
posted by theorique at 2:33 AM on December 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
https://www.microcovid.org/
In this case, you're looking at a sort of second-order effect: what is their risk of being infected given their recent travel, and then, what is your risk of getting infected if they were infected from their travel.
You could probably cook up two scenarios and see how they might work back-to-back: "risk from their travel", and "risk from hanging out together indoors."
Estimating risk from the two step process would involve multiplying the separate probabilities together - e.g. if they have a 10% chance of being infected and a 10% chance of passing it on to you, then the cumulative probability is (0.1)*(0.1) = 0.01 = 1%.
The microcovid numbers are expressed in 1-in-a-million (hence, micro) so you would need to divide by 1000000 to get a fraction before multiplying them together.
And of course they are just estimates as well, but at least they could give some numbers to your thinking.
posted by theorique at 2:33 AM on December 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
Before the rules here in Canada started changing for vaccinated travelers with a negative post-arrival test, the standard quarantine period after travel was 14 days. (Unless the traveler developed symptoms or tested positive, in which case the clocks restarted in various ways.)
posted by heatherlogan at 5:09 AM on December 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by heatherlogan at 5:09 AM on December 17, 2021 [1 favorite]
The CDC recommendation for post-travel for unvaccinated (ie. toddler) is “Stay home and self-quarantine for a full 7 days after travel, even if you test negative at 3-5 days.” (It’s a 10-day isolation if they don’t test.) They could also do a home test at the 7-day mark to be extra careful.
posted by wsquared at 6:53 AM on December 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by wsquared at 6:53 AM on December 17, 2021 [2 favorites]
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posted by metahawk at 10:23 PM on December 16, 2021