COVID US exit strategy
July 17, 2020 11:13 AM Subscribe
I currently live and work in the United States. I've been here on a work permit for only a couple of years and have moved around a bit during that time, so I don't have many ties at all here, except for my work. I'm trying to form a plan/decision tree for when I would decide to return to my home country (where the COVID response hasn't been perfect but is doing a lot better than the US) - something along the lines of "if X happens, or if Y number exceeds Z, it's time to start making arrangements to go, and if Q happens, it's time to go NOW". What sort of numbers/events should I be looking out for, and how do I set my breaking points?
When the pandemic first broke out it seemed like everyone around the world was in the same boat, so staying put made a lot more sense. I'm fairly young and not at high risk for severe COVID complications, and I don't lead a high risk lifestyle (generally just go outdoors for exercise and once a week grocery/essential shopping, wear a mask, etc). Still, I'm starting to feel a bit like a frog in slowly boiling water.
Things keeping me here are:
My job: I'm currently working remotely for a big multinational corporation, and general policy during COVID has been that people can work from within the US without any huge hassle. Talking to other expats, getting set up to work internationally is possible but has, as I understand it, a huge swirl of approvals and red tape around it. I've talked to my own managers (my boss and my boss' boss) who have expressed support for the general idea, but I am not sure how far that will go. They like me and I do good work, but I'm not some irreplaceable superstar they would go to extraordinary lengths to keep, I think.
My stuff: I live here (renting half a house), and have a typical amount of stuff that one accumulates by living somewhere. If I leave and can be reasonably assured I would return in a few months, I would just pack some clothes and essentials and close up the house temporarily. But what if somehow the borders close even tighter and I can't get back?
I guess, then, that there are a few scenarios I have to consider - at what point should I leave, if:
When the pandemic first broke out it seemed like everyone around the world was in the same boat, so staying put made a lot more sense. I'm fairly young and not at high risk for severe COVID complications, and I don't lead a high risk lifestyle (generally just go outdoors for exercise and once a week grocery/essential shopping, wear a mask, etc). Still, I'm starting to feel a bit like a frog in slowly boiling water.
Things keeping me here are:
My job: I'm currently working remotely for a big multinational corporation, and general policy during COVID has been that people can work from within the US without any huge hassle. Talking to other expats, getting set up to work internationally is possible but has, as I understand it, a huge swirl of approvals and red tape around it. I've talked to my own managers (my boss and my boss' boss) who have expressed support for the general idea, but I am not sure how far that will go. They like me and I do good work, but I'm not some irreplaceable superstar they would go to extraordinary lengths to keep, I think.
My stuff: I live here (renting half a house), and have a typical amount of stuff that one accumulates by living somewhere. If I leave and can be reasonably assured I would return in a few months, I would just pack some clothes and essentials and close up the house temporarily. But what if somehow the borders close even tighter and I can't get back?
I guess, then, that there are a few scenarios I have to consider - at what point should I leave, if:
- I can work remotely indefinitely and enter/exit the US whenever I needed to (following necessary quarantine protocols, of course)?
- I can work remotely, but couldn't return until a vaccine is found/other miracle solution happens?
- Remote work falls through I have to quit my job, sell/pack all my stuff up and leave permanently?
I own my house here in the Yucatán. Our total numbers aren’t huge, but overall we’re doing pretty poorly. As of this week the government (free) hospitals are at capacity and they’re trying to bring new emergency wards online. The private hospitals still have plenty of room, as wealth hath its privileges.
However, an obvious move for the government to make is to start renting private hospital rooms in bulk. If that happens and I really start to feel there won’t be a bed available for me, I’ll immediately board the dog and board a plane to somewhere safer.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 11:45 AM on July 17, 2020
However, an obvious move for the government to make is to start renting private hospital rooms in bulk. If that happens and I really start to feel there won’t be a bed available for me, I’ll immediately board the dog and board a plane to somewhere safer.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 11:45 AM on July 17, 2020
What is your long term plan? Green card it up or go home eventually?
posted by St. Peepsburg at 11:51 AM on July 17, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by St. Peepsburg at 11:51 AM on July 17, 2020 [3 favorites]
I'd be concerned about my ability to leave the US, and would use the # of independent paths to get home as a breaker, and may also use the absolute # of flights as a breaker as flight availability could become a blocker.
posted by whisk(e)y neat at 12:05 PM on July 17, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by whisk(e)y neat at 12:05 PM on July 17, 2020 [2 favorites]
Q has already happened. Look at the curve of daily new cases in the US. I think your best choices are to get out now, the sooner the better, or plan to stay for the duration. Availability of flights/safety of airports is only going to get worse as long as that curve keeps going up. Of course this may depend on which state you're in and how well the state is handling it (e.g., New York seems to be doing very well).
Whether you can continue to work remotely from your home country may be an important consideration for you, in which case it may be worth it to wait until that is set up, or at least till you know whether it can be set up. Whether your company is able/willing to pay you and deal with local tax laws may depend on which country you'd be moving to.
posted by heatherlogan at 12:34 PM on July 17, 2020 [4 favorites]
Whether you can continue to work remotely from your home country may be an important consideration for you, in which case it may be worth it to wait until that is set up, or at least till you know whether it can be set up. Whether your company is able/willing to pay you and deal with local tax laws may depend on which country you'd be moving to.
posted by heatherlogan at 12:34 PM on July 17, 2020 [4 favorites]
So as not to abuse the edit window...
If I leave and can be reasonably assured I would return in a few months
I am finding it harder and harder to come up with any scenarios in which effective nationwide actions will be taken to turn over the infection curve in the U.S. before, say, late January 2021, if then. If you leave, it is probably going to be for more than a few months.
posted by heatherlogan at 12:38 PM on July 17, 2020 [11 favorites]
If I leave and can be reasonably assured I would return in a few months
I am finding it harder and harder to come up with any scenarios in which effective nationwide actions will be taken to turn over the infection curve in the U.S. before, say, late January 2021, if then. If you leave, it is probably going to be for more than a few months.
posted by heatherlogan at 12:38 PM on July 17, 2020 [11 favorites]
What are your concerns? Avoiding serious COVID illness yourself? Avoiding an extended period of lockdown? Unemployment? Civil unrest?
If you're young with no underlying conditions, you're likely to be physically fine personally, as you note. The decision of when/whether to leave depends a lot on what specific conditions in the US you're trying to avoid.
posted by mekily at 12:39 PM on July 17, 2020 [4 favorites]
If you're young with no underlying conditions, you're likely to be physically fine personally, as you note. The decision of when/whether to leave depends a lot on what specific conditions in the US you're trying to avoid.
posted by mekily at 12:39 PM on July 17, 2020 [4 favorites]
Two big things are on the horizon that are likely to affect the spread of the virus in the US. First, schools are going to open in late August/early September. Second, there's an election in November.
I agree with "go now or stay for the duration." If you're going, go before the school reopening causes spikes of cases. If you're going to stay, hunker down till we (hopefully) get a new administration and/or a vaccine in early 2021.
There are a lot of different things you could optimize for. Make a list of what you absolutely care about. For me, avoiding getting sick actually isn't the biggest concern. Some of my coworkers have vulnerable family members so a big priority has been arranging our work schedules to keep them safe. My kids' mental health is important too so I've prioritized a couple of social things that really matter for them.
Would you be OK if you couldn't see your family in person for a year? How much of a priority is keeping the job that you currently have?
About 10 years ago I saw lifestyle makeover expert Cheryl Richardson on Oprah and despite how incredibly goofy that sounds, one idea of hers that really stuck with me is the Absolute Yes List.
If you know what your absolute yesses are, you know what you're optimizing for. So if the love of your life is in your home country, getting back there is going to be a much higher priority than if it's just people you can keep a connection with over Zoom. If your job is your calling, then living a socially distanced life for the next year and just focusing on work might make sense.
posted by selfmedicating at 5:19 PM on July 17, 2020 [1 favorite]
I agree with "go now or stay for the duration." If you're going, go before the school reopening causes spikes of cases. If you're going to stay, hunker down till we (hopefully) get a new administration and/or a vaccine in early 2021.
There are a lot of different things you could optimize for. Make a list of what you absolutely care about. For me, avoiding getting sick actually isn't the biggest concern. Some of my coworkers have vulnerable family members so a big priority has been arranging our work schedules to keep them safe. My kids' mental health is important too so I've prioritized a couple of social things that really matter for them.
Would you be OK if you couldn't see your family in person for a year? How much of a priority is keeping the job that you currently have?
About 10 years ago I saw lifestyle makeover expert Cheryl Richardson on Oprah and despite how incredibly goofy that sounds, one idea of hers that really stuck with me is the Absolute Yes List.
If you know what your absolute yesses are, you know what you're optimizing for. So if the love of your life is in your home country, getting back there is going to be a much higher priority than if it's just people you can keep a connection with over Zoom. If your job is your calling, then living a socially distanced life for the next year and just focusing on work might make sense.
posted by selfmedicating at 5:19 PM on July 17, 2020 [1 favorite]
Be physically ready to move right now-pack and prepare for departure. Then, at the risk of forcing the company’s hand to decide if they want to keep you around, ask them to start the process of the red tape and approvals to work out-of-country. If they decide to discontinue employment now because they don’t see a future with you, at least you are already packed and can immediately move home to find a new job and living arrangements. If they decline to do the red tape but are ok with you staying on here in the USA, then you just need to monitor flight availability and your home country’s likelihood of closing their borders to American travel.
If your company is willing to do the red tape, that’s great; get the red tape process started right away and figure out how long the process takes. You will be leaving the earlier of when you can begin working from your home country or when flight availability starts to be an issue. If you wait any longer to request the red tape process to start, you may not be established and working-from-home-country yet when they begin to plan for workforce reduction due to shit hitting the fan.
My assumptions regarding the future are that things will stay the same (uncontrolled) or get worse until at least the beginning of 2021. Flu season will be arriving soon. As the November election approaches, tensions are going to rise and, after the election results are announced, a substantial number of people are going to be royally pissed-off. If Trump wins the election, he no longer has anything to lose and it will be four more years of increasingly outrageous conduct. Supreme Court appointment process, if any, will be...divisive. If Trump loses the election, he no longer has anything to lose and it will be three more months of increasingly outrageous conduct. Anyway, that’s just some of why I think the next 4-5 months have a lot of risk baked-in. Favor certainty and leave earlier than you’d like. Sorry to see you go, though.
posted by DB Cooper at 5:28 PM on July 17, 2020 [1 favorite]
If your company is willing to do the red tape, that’s great; get the red tape process started right away and figure out how long the process takes. You will be leaving the earlier of when you can begin working from your home country or when flight availability starts to be an issue. If you wait any longer to request the red tape process to start, you may not be established and working-from-home-country yet when they begin to plan for workforce reduction due to shit hitting the fan.
My assumptions regarding the future are that things will stay the same (uncontrolled) or get worse until at least the beginning of 2021. Flu season will be arriving soon. As the November election approaches, tensions are going to rise and, after the election results are announced, a substantial number of people are going to be royally pissed-off. If Trump wins the election, he no longer has anything to lose and it will be four more years of increasingly outrageous conduct. Supreme Court appointment process, if any, will be...divisive. If Trump loses the election, he no longer has anything to lose and it will be three more months of increasingly outrageous conduct. Anyway, that’s just some of why I think the next 4-5 months have a lot of risk baked-in. Favor certainty and leave earlier than you’d like. Sorry to see you go, though.
posted by DB Cooper at 5:28 PM on July 17, 2020 [1 favorite]
Seems to me that if you’d like to go home, now is the time. Is your home country requiring a two-week quarantine for arrivals from the US? Better to deal with that now than be concerned they won’t allow anyone from the US at all.
I’d start the process with your company now and plan to leave indefinitely. If you want to be able to return the US, then I wouldn’t leave in the first place.
posted by bluedaisy at 10:44 PM on July 17, 2020
I’d start the process with your company now and plan to leave indefinitely. If you want to be able to return the US, then I wouldn’t leave in the first place.
posted by bluedaisy at 10:44 PM on July 17, 2020
I would be more worried about getting back into the US than with getting out. There's a big push to close off almost every form of immigration.
posted by Jacqueline at 10:48 PM on July 17, 2020
posted by Jacqueline at 10:48 PM on July 17, 2020
others have covered the main points but i just want to say: don't underestimate this virus, even if you're young and healthy.
i was young and healthy, until a virus made me permanently sick. i've used a power wheelchair for almost a decade and can barely leave my apartment or focus on anything even at home. and that was a normal virus. covid is worse.
people who were young and healthy are dying, and those that survive have blood clots, lung and kidney and brain damage, severe fatigue (the kind like mine that gets you a wheelchair), etc etc etc.
we don't know how long these effects will last. we do know ordinary viruses can make you severely ill for the rest of your life. we don't have any treatments or medical ways to address this.
so yeah... i just wish every young healthy person knew what a precarious state that actually is.
posted by squiddish at 11:22 AM on July 18, 2020 [2 favorites]
i was young and healthy, until a virus made me permanently sick. i've used a power wheelchair for almost a decade and can barely leave my apartment or focus on anything even at home. and that was a normal virus. covid is worse.
people who were young and healthy are dying, and those that survive have blood clots, lung and kidney and brain damage, severe fatigue (the kind like mine that gets you a wheelchair), etc etc etc.
we don't know how long these effects will last. we do know ordinary viruses can make you severely ill for the rest of your life. we don't have any treatments or medical ways to address this.
so yeah... i just wish every young healthy person knew what a precarious state that actually is.
posted by squiddish at 11:22 AM on July 18, 2020 [2 favorites]
I think it depends on whether you want to come back and what kind of work permit you are on. Whatever challenges you had in getting the work permit in the first place are more likely to be multiplied many times over than stay the same or get easier.
I would be weighing up the impact of not being able to return to the US to work for a few years (or at all) against the risks of remaining in the US in making my decision.
The only other thing I would take into account is the risk of being stranded in the US. Particularly the availability of (ideally, direct) flights to the country you hold a passport for. Keep an active eye on your home country's advice for travellers to the US.
posted by plonkee at 3:49 AM on July 19, 2020
I would be weighing up the impact of not being able to return to the US to work for a few years (or at all) against the risks of remaining in the US in making my decision.
The only other thing I would take into account is the risk of being stranded in the US. Particularly the availability of (ideally, direct) flights to the country you hold a passport for. Keep an active eye on your home country's advice for travellers to the US.
posted by plonkee at 3:49 AM on July 19, 2020
This thread is closed to new comments.
...you would, however, want to make sure your chosen storage company can also do international shipping. Some can, some can't.
posted by aramaic at 11:34 AM on July 17, 2020 [1 favorite]