Difference in virus risk between NC and IL for the next year
June 27, 2020 3:25 PM Subscribe
Trying to decide how risky it would be to go back to Durham/Chapel Hill NC for the next year. Our lease is up, it's very expensive here, and we need to take care of things in NC. We'd already have a place to live in NC.
There are really good financial reasons for us to move back to Durham/Chapel Hill NC from Chicago (we could save thousands of dollars). I like the culture in Chicago, but the culture's not happening much right now. It would be less expensive but less fulfilling personally/life-wise in NC. It's tempting to just stay in Chicago, but we'd be "wasting" a lot of money; these two choices are balanced, pretty much, but we'd like to zero in on the differences in their respective health risks, and how well the economic/government systems are functioning, at the moment.
My dude and I tend to get very sick when I get flu/pneumonia, and we're not in our twenties. So we've been isolating, getting groceries delivered, etc. -- we really don't want to get this virus. It's also a bummer to be in a place where everything is closed and/or people are angry about being asked to wear masks.
Of course moving itself carries some risk, and Chicago seems to have their virus situation sort of under control (miraculously). NC, not as much. That said, how bad will it be at the end of August, when our lease here is up, and for the next 1-1.5 years?
Is NC likely to peak in the next 6 weeks?
Can we hunker down and get stuff delivered there just as well as here?
Will the health care situation there get a lot worse?
Groceries are getting expensive here - is that less true in Durham/Chapel Hill?
Is there any chance it will be safe for me to swim in an indoor pool in Chicago any time soon? That would make my life a lot better.
Will the employment situation in NC get worse? This is for tech work; it seems like there's more in NC than in Chicago at the moment.
I don't expect anybody has definitive answers, but maybe you can help us think this through.
My current thinking is that there might not be a lot of difference between the two places by September 1 (keep the faith, Governor Cooper), but my partner feels differently.
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We're open to going somewhere less expensive and more beautiful than Chicago that's closer to NC, too, but we're starting with trying to understand the health (and general economy) risks as well as we can.
There are really good financial reasons for us to move back to Durham/Chapel Hill NC from Chicago (we could save thousands of dollars). I like the culture in Chicago, but the culture's not happening much right now. It would be less expensive but less fulfilling personally/life-wise in NC. It's tempting to just stay in Chicago, but we'd be "wasting" a lot of money; these two choices are balanced, pretty much, but we'd like to zero in on the differences in their respective health risks, and how well the economic/government systems are functioning, at the moment.
My dude and I tend to get very sick when I get flu/pneumonia, and we're not in our twenties. So we've been isolating, getting groceries delivered, etc. -- we really don't want to get this virus. It's also a bummer to be in a place where everything is closed and/or people are angry about being asked to wear masks.
Of course moving itself carries some risk, and Chicago seems to have their virus situation sort of under control (miraculously). NC, not as much. That said, how bad will it be at the end of August, when our lease here is up, and for the next 1-1.5 years?
Is NC likely to peak in the next 6 weeks?
Can we hunker down and get stuff delivered there just as well as here?
Will the health care situation there get a lot worse?
Groceries are getting expensive here - is that less true in Durham/Chapel Hill?
Is there any chance it will be safe for me to swim in an indoor pool in Chicago any time soon? That would make my life a lot better.
Will the employment situation in NC get worse? This is for tech work; it seems like there's more in NC than in Chicago at the moment.
I don't expect anybody has definitive answers, but maybe you can help us think this through.
My current thinking is that there might not be a lot of difference between the two places by September 1 (keep the faith, Governor Cooper), but my partner feels differently.
--- ---- -----
We're open to going somewhere less expensive and more beautiful than Chicago that's closer to NC, too, but we're starting with trying to understand the health (and general economy) risks as well as we can.
The NC governor (D) has been pretty responsible. He didn't bow down to pressure about the Republican national convention and so it's now moved to Florida. He has also kept the State in phase 2 with bars still closed instead of bowing to commercial concerns.
However, there is an undercurrent of upheaval from the lieutenant governor (R) who is running against him in the November election. So. Who knows what's going to happen?
posted by mightshould at 4:06 PM on June 27, 2020 [4 favorites]
However, there is an undercurrent of upheaval from the lieutenant governor (R) who is running against him in the November election. So. Who knows what's going to happen?
posted by mightshould at 4:06 PM on June 27, 2020 [4 favorites]
Do whatever is best for your family, and be careful about giving "advice" to others about moving or staying with family in these circumstances. I've shred a few friends now over people making very proscriptive statements about visiting family. I live 1,000 miles from my nearest family member or close friend and I'm about to make a cross-country trip to see them for a few weeks for my own mental health. It's a calculated risk, but so is staying where you are. There's mental health issues to think about, and if you have family in NC that need your care, that's a strong reason that should not be discounted.
posted by deathpanels at 4:42 PM on June 27, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by deathpanels at 4:42 PM on June 27, 2020 [2 favorites]
Response by poster: We wouldn't be staying with family.
I really, really have missed being able to walk around outside in nature (and with hills!), but the place we'd be staying isn't particularly beautiful.
posted by amtho at 4:48 PM on June 27, 2020 [1 favorite]
I really, really have missed being able to walk around outside in nature (and with hills!), but the place we'd be staying isn't particularly beautiful.
posted by amtho at 4:48 PM on June 27, 2020 [1 favorite]
NC is a pretty heavy battleground state, so there's shenanigans like this in the news:
Masks Could Become Illegal In North Carolina (Again) Under KKK-Inspired Law
Would they enforce a law against wearing masks if you are doing it for health issues? hard to tell. Various law enforcement agencies around the country have said they won't enforce any mask wearing requirements because they don't like the other party, so would they be jerks and enforce this one? for political points, probably.
If durham/chapel hill is blue like i think it is, you should be okay, with your personal responsible health decisions and not going to any place you don't feel is safe. Would i live in the red areas in the state? no.
posted by TheAdamist at 5:40 PM on June 27, 2020 [1 favorite]
Masks Could Become Illegal In North Carolina (Again) Under KKK-Inspired Law
Would they enforce a law against wearing masks if you are doing it for health issues? hard to tell. Various law enforcement agencies around the country have said they won't enforce any mask wearing requirements because they don't like the other party, so would they be jerks and enforce this one? for political points, probably.
If durham/chapel hill is blue like i think it is, you should be okay, with your personal responsible health decisions and not going to any place you don't feel is safe. Would i live in the red areas in the state? no.
posted by TheAdamist at 5:40 PM on June 27, 2020 [1 favorite]
Would whatever health insurance you have cover the cost of care in NC? If it's an employer or state based plan, triple check that moving wouldn't leave you uninsured in the middle of a pandemic.
posted by basalganglia at 5:52 PM on June 27, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by basalganglia at 5:52 PM on June 27, 2020 [2 favorites]
I honestly still would always move back to Durham if I were able to do so. Even in the pandemic. I'm just much more of a culture fit for Durham than anywhere else, and it would be cool to again be close to my (our!) Durham friends and both my and spouse's family, even if it were just to have a distanced walk together along the Eno, to get delivery from the awesome restaurants (have you tried Zweli's?!?!?), to support the wonderful community. It would also save us money, and that's a big deal right now when everything is uncertain. That said, I also live in a place where the government is much worse than the NC government, and so that choice would be easier for me (and my job won't let me, so I'm not doing it even though it sounds so amazing).
posted by hydropsyche at 5:56 PM on June 27, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by hydropsyche at 5:56 PM on June 27, 2020 [2 favorites]
I would point out that UNC currently has plans to have students back on campus in the fall (not sure about Duke). If you do choose to come to N.C. I would highly recommend doing a full quarantine at home from several days before move in to at least two weeks after. There’s just no way there won’t be a spike then.
Anecdotally, Chapel Hill has had generally good response and the population is low enough that it’s fairly easy to take a socially distant walk on a greenway or around the neighborhood.
UNC is also doing clinical trials related to COVID19 and the hospital system is strong which would also be a plus.
posted by raccoon409 at 6:10 PM on June 27, 2020
Anecdotally, Chapel Hill has had generally good response and the population is low enough that it’s fairly easy to take a socially distant walk on a greenway or around the neighborhood.
UNC is also doing clinical trials related to COVID19 and the hospital system is strong which would also be a plus.
posted by raccoon409 at 6:10 PM on June 27, 2020
Oh, and as to having things delivered: Weaver Street and Carrboro United (family meals from restaurants) have be long set up very well with a drive up system where they place groceries in the trunk of your car without having to interact with anyone.
posted by raccoon409 at 6:12 PM on June 27, 2020
posted by raccoon409 at 6:12 PM on June 27, 2020
As I'm sure you're aware, generalizing about how people are behaving in regards to pandemic in North Carolina is as dangerous as generalizing about them in Illinois.
If you're talking about various rural counties and tourist areas like the Cape and Asheville, then no, North Carolina is not particularly safe. If you're talking about the denser urban areas, particularly Charlotte and the Triangle, people are generally taking the statewide mask requirement seriously, observing sanitation recommendations, personal distancing, and so on.
Governor Cooper has for the most part been quite deft in evading Republican pressure to open up the state, just as he has been in getting around the statewide regulations regarding the preservation of Confederate war monuments (heh). There has been Republican pressure to paint him as the mean daddy who's not letting us do fun things, but for the time being that message doesn't seem to have much influence on people not already voting Republican party line, so I'm not worried yet about his chances in November.
posted by ardgedee at 6:42 PM on June 27, 2020 [6 favorites]
If you're talking about various rural counties and tourist areas like the Cape and Asheville, then no, North Carolina is not particularly safe. If you're talking about the denser urban areas, particularly Charlotte and the Triangle, people are generally taking the statewide mask requirement seriously, observing sanitation recommendations, personal distancing, and so on.
Governor Cooper has for the most part been quite deft in evading Republican pressure to open up the state, just as he has been in getting around the statewide regulations regarding the preservation of Confederate war monuments (heh). There has been Republican pressure to paint him as the mean daddy who's not letting us do fun things, but for the time being that message doesn't seem to have much influence on people not already voting Republican party line, so I'm not worried yet about his chances in November.
posted by ardgedee at 6:42 PM on June 27, 2020 [6 favorites]
I live in Durham. We've had mandatory masks in Durham County since April (the first county in NC to do that for weeks) which I've been happy about. While there isn't 100% compliance, if you are able to go shopping during certain times you're much more likely to be in a situation where everyone you see in the store has a mask on. Early-mid morning on weekdays is usually a good time to go, or first thing in the morning on weekends.
Regarding your question about grocery delivery, early on during the stay-at-home order I tried getting groceries delivered and had some mixed experiences. I haven't tried it in the last couple months, but I've rarely felt unsafe when going out grocery shopping around here. Many of the stores here are so spacious that if I go when they aren't crowded and everyone in there is wearing masks and not invading my personal space in the checkout line, I feel okay about it. I don't consider myself high risk, but I don't want to get the virus either, so I am careful and try to keep my distance from those who aren't being careful.
I've always thought groceries here are on the expensive side. I haven't noticed if they've gotten more expensive recently.
Durham has a relatively detailed Coronavirus Data Hub which is releasing information like occupation and demographics that are being the hardest hit at any given time. Most of the big outbreaks here so far have been in nursing homes, prisons, and among construction workers.
As for the anti-KKK law saying wearing masks in public is illegal, I wouldn't expect that to be enforced even if it technically goes into effect, especially around here. But I would be surprised if the redder areas of the state enforced that too.
I think Governor Cooper has done just about the best job that could've been done in NC, given the limitations and conflicts continuously imposed on him by the Republican-led General Assembly. We don't know when it's going to peak here, and we don't know how bad it's going to get here. Right now, I feel like I'm fairly in control of whether or not I'm in a situation where I'm likely to catch it.
posted by bananana at 7:24 PM on June 27, 2020 [4 favorites]
Regarding your question about grocery delivery, early on during the stay-at-home order I tried getting groceries delivered and had some mixed experiences. I haven't tried it in the last couple months, but I've rarely felt unsafe when going out grocery shopping around here. Many of the stores here are so spacious that if I go when they aren't crowded and everyone in there is wearing masks and not invading my personal space in the checkout line, I feel okay about it. I don't consider myself high risk, but I don't want to get the virus either, so I am careful and try to keep my distance from those who aren't being careful.
I've always thought groceries here are on the expensive side. I haven't noticed if they've gotten more expensive recently.
Durham has a relatively detailed Coronavirus Data Hub which is releasing information like occupation and demographics that are being the hardest hit at any given time. Most of the big outbreaks here so far have been in nursing homes, prisons, and among construction workers.
As for the anti-KKK law saying wearing masks in public is illegal, I wouldn't expect that to be enforced even if it technically goes into effect, especially around here. But I would be surprised if the redder areas of the state enforced that too.
I think Governor Cooper has done just about the best job that could've been done in NC, given the limitations and conflicts continuously imposed on him by the Republican-led General Assembly. We don't know when it's going to peak here, and we don't know how bad it's going to get here. Right now, I feel like I'm fairly in control of whether or not I'm in a situation where I'm likely to catch it.
posted by bananana at 7:24 PM on June 27, 2020 [4 favorites]
> I've always thought groceries here are on the expensive side. I haven't noticed if they've gotten more expensive recently.
I pay close attention to grocery prices for staples we use, and many things, particularly prepared food and canned/frozen food, has gone up quite a bit since February, but I hear tell that's true pretty much nation-wide.
As for mask wearing in stores, the worst compliance among customers is in the mainstream groceries: Harris Teeter, Food Lion and Target. I have seen people wear masks to get past the greeter at Target and then take their masks off once inside. Walmart is a little better. Trader Joes, Whole Foods and Sprouts tends to be fairly good. The Durham food co-op is strict about not allowing customers in without masks, I'm not sure about Weaver St. Co-op (I'm a member, but I haven't shopped there in months since I'm trying to get out less generally).
One more thought:
Durham County maintains free Coronavirus mailing lists with updates usually every weekday about local current events and regulations, and with links to resources for residents and health workers. I subscribe though I don't pay particularly close attention to it currently, but it's good to skim now and again. Lately it has been providing weekly reports on infection rates among Durham's health-insured population and rates in community reports. (Apparently currently the curve is flattening in Durham.)
posted by ardgedee at 7:54 PM on June 27, 2020 [1 favorite]
I pay close attention to grocery prices for staples we use, and many things, particularly prepared food and canned/frozen food, has gone up quite a bit since February, but I hear tell that's true pretty much nation-wide.
As for mask wearing in stores, the worst compliance among customers is in the mainstream groceries: Harris Teeter, Food Lion and Target. I have seen people wear masks to get past the greeter at Target and then take their masks off once inside. Walmart is a little better. Trader Joes, Whole Foods and Sprouts tends to be fairly good. The Durham food co-op is strict about not allowing customers in without masks, I'm not sure about Weaver St. Co-op (I'm a member, but I haven't shopped there in months since I'm trying to get out less generally).
One more thought:
Durham County maintains free Coronavirus mailing lists with updates usually every weekday about local current events and regulations, and with links to resources for residents and health workers. I subscribe though I don't pay particularly close attention to it currently, but it's good to skim now and again. Lately it has been providing weekly reports on infection rates among Durham's health-insured population and rates in community reports. (Apparently currently the curve is flattening in Durham.)
posted by ardgedee at 7:54 PM on June 27, 2020 [1 favorite]
Hey, I live in Carrboro. Mask compliance has been largely widespread (especially at Weaver Street Co-op, mentioned above), grocery delivery has been easy, and it's been a mild spring and a lovely beginning of summer. My neighborhood abuts Carolina North Forest, so I've spent hours on the trails almost every day, which have not been particularly crowded. There are lots of great take-out/curbside options (Carrboro United mentioned, but also most of the local restaurants, and other things, like, my favorite local bookshop, Flyleaf). Beer Study is delivering beer and wine (very quickly I might add). I've had to see a local GP once since COVID (for non COVID symptoms) and the experience was as stress-free as can be imagined in this context. The Farmers Market is open for business and enforcing masks for shoppers and vendors. I've been (personally) an emotional disaster since this thing started, but the only things that have kept me sane and able to carry on at all have been my local friends and community at large which has been lovely, warm, supportive, safe and beautiful.
Note: I have not been to Durham since March, save a drive-thru pick-up at Ponysaurus in early May, but have heard good things from people that live there.
posted by thivaia at 5:58 AM on June 28, 2020 [2 favorites]
Note: I have not been to Durham since March, save a drive-thru pick-up at Ponysaurus in early May, but have heard good things from people that live there.
posted by thivaia at 5:58 AM on June 28, 2020 [2 favorites]
Also, Roy Cooper is a Democrat, doing the best he can with rural (and semi-rural counties) full of non-compliant white supremacists and death cultists (Alamance comes to mind). I think we could have held off on reopening for longer than we did, but I've largely approved of his job. He's polling pretty well (and Forrest is an idiot). Given NC's ridiculously gerrymandered districts and ???? State Leg/General Assembly, there are always political battles to be fought, and I wouldn't sleep at the wheel this November on the gubernatorial vote. But I'm not as worried about Cooper as I am about even, say, the national election.
posted by thivaia at 6:04 AM on June 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by thivaia at 6:04 AM on June 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
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Will NC peak in the next 6 weeks? I doubt it.
I expect it to be very bad for the next year at least. Pretty much the only advantage NC has over Chicago, IMO, is that you can do things outdoors for longer in NC than Chicago.
posted by Automocar at 3:47 PM on June 27, 2020