When will large events (25+) be held again?

May 1, 2020 6:06 AM

I see several threads regarding when the pandemic will "end" but I am curious about the odds that large events (with more than 25 people) will be allowed again by fall 2020.

Based on current events and such. I know no one can predict such things and, based on the current U.S. government stance of "economy above health", I am nervous that large events will be held again despite public health recommendations. More so I am registered to vend two large conventions that typically host 10,000+ visitors in early July and late August. So far neither has canceled and are posting on social media like the events will still occur. I've yet to order stock, but if I am going to I need to start now as most fulfillment companies are scaling back operations (as they should).

What are the odds of these conventions or similar events still occurring at this point?

posted by Young Kullervo to Work & Money (21 answers total)

What are the odds of these conventions or similar events still occurring at this point?

If these are U.S. events, I'd be skeptical that they are going to happen. The event organizers may be delaying cancellation either because they're recklessly optimistic, or because they lose deposits, etc. if they pull the trigger on cancelling.

The Magic 8-Ball is hazy right now, but I'd suspect that a 10K person convention is not in the cards this summer. Even if it is held, they stand to lose a lot of attendees. If it's a professional convention, a lot of employers probably would not allow their employees to travel to such an event (at least I don't think mine would) and a lot of sponsors are likely to pull sponsorships, exhibitors won't want to show up, etc.

Anything can happen, but I would put money against it at this point, and if I would not plan to attend even if it does happen as scheduled.
posted by jzb at 6:25 AM on May 1, 2020 [11 favorites]

Response by poster: To clarify, they are U.S. events.
posted by Young Kullervo at 6:29 AM on May 1, 2020

What state are they in?
posted by NotLost at 6:32 AM on May 1, 2020

Response by poster: Early July event is in Pennsylvania, late August event is in Rhode Island.
posted by Young Kullervo at 6:33 AM on May 1, 2020

Best answer: I work in comics, and I'm both debuting a book of my own this spring as well as helping to plan events for a book I edit.

We are all operating under the assumption that all cons happening this summer will be cancelled, and personally I am skeptical of the fall. Anyone who regularly goes to cons is familiar with "con crud" -- the cold that knocks you flat when you get home after handling other people's money and shaking hands and standing in huge crowds all weekend -- and that's definitely at the front of all of our minds right now. Even if I personally was okay with the risk (I'm not) will the celebrities and high-draw authors be willing to risk it? Will fans? And do any of us want to be indirectly responsible for people getting sick, because we encouraged them to come hang out in a convention center? Particularly when both exhibitors and attendees are often traveling a very long way to go?

I have a major con I'm supposed to be exhibiting at in August. I will not be ordering stock and cannot currently imagine it happening at all. If it does, I likely won't be going and will eat my sunk costs.
posted by Narrative Priorities at 6:38 AM on May 1, 2020 [17 favorites]

Best answer: While I am not a meeting planner, I work in an field that runs associations and meetings. In my industry, summer events have been cancelled and fall events are currently on the chopping block. All of these events are far smaller than 10,000 people.

I feel that events on the scale of what you're talking about will not happen again until winter 2022.
posted by kimberussell at 7:14 AM on May 1, 2020 [15 favorites]

I personally think 2024 would be somewhere between possible and overly-generous for events of that size. There has never been a vaccine for a single other form of coronavirus, and until we get one, these large events are really unlikely. We could easily never have a vaccine. Also there will likely be continuing supply chain issues which would be a problem for huge events like this until things really stabilize. I'm sure we're talking years not months.
posted by thegreatfleecircus at 8:05 AM on May 1, 2020 [6 favorites]

Best answer: My (normal) career is in "large groups of people gathered together in one place for events", and . . . really this is unanswerable at this time. I'm checking out trade magazines & websites & in touch with my employers & others in my line of business and similar areas and NOBODY KNOWS.

Seriously. AFAICT any sort of business or organization that relies on getting groups of people together from now through the end of 2020 is doing one of two things:

1) accepting that they do not have the time or money to organize and promote these events in a realistic manner - and, to some extent, assuming that people's reluctance to attend events until a totally unknown date means these events will not be financially viable - and cancelling them well ahead of time in a sort of rolling fashion; as in, "on March 15 they cancel all the May events and large July/August events, on April 30 they cancel ALL June & July events but are not saying anything about September yet."

2) Stalling. Promoting events as if they will happen, only cancelling at the (relative) last minute and/or rescheduling for later in the year. Clearly hoping that things will work out in the best possible way and things will go "back to normal" soon.

So far neither has canceled and are posting on social media like the events will still occur. This sounds like #2, stalling.

This is all complicated by the "We're Opening America" push from the US and state governments, which has really just started so NOBODY KNOWS whether people will go ahead and start attempting to attend things (lots of polls showing that folks are and will be reluctant to do so even if they technically can) AND nobody knows whether this easing of restrictions will result in a second or third wave of infections and isolation orders in . . . July? August? November? Again, NOBODY KNOWS.

Sorry to keep harping on that in all caps, but yes, we are in an unprecedented "no one can predict such things" territory. You're basically asking "no one can predict but can you predict anyway?" No. We cannot. I feel you, it's hard, my livelihood depends on gatherings of people but I cannot in good conscience give you any kind of realistic prediction of "when." There is just far too much that is totally unknown.

If I were you I would order ONLY enough stock that you are comfortable either eating the cost of or that you could for sure get rid of another way (online?), because the safe bet is to assume these events will not be happening, and even if they do happen it's highly unlikely that 10,000+ will attend. Or, of course, the real possibility that even if these events happen you don't feel safe being there when the time comes (totally understandable), so you can't get rid of your stock there.
posted by soundguy99 at 8:12 AM on May 1, 2020 [15 favorites]

Best answer: The Pennsylvania governor has been relatively conservative about his COVID-related orders and so far the legislature has not been able to force his hand to make him open things up faster than he's ready to do so. It doesn't feel remotely likely to me that we will be having 10,000+-people events here by summer. The local summer cons I tend to be in the loop on seem to agree; they've all cancelled already or postponed to the fall. I wouldn't spend money on convention prep for the PA trip that you can't afford to lose. Either way is a gamble but here on the ground it seems to me like the odds are tilted more heavily against that con happening.
posted by Stacey at 8:20 AM on May 1, 2020 [10 favorites]

Response by poster: Not trying to thread sit, but this information is extremely helpful in helping me to determine risk. I'm a con newbie (I've only done small art shows thus far, all local or regional) so I have no idea how to plan for the scenario in which it won't happen and/or what to even consider. I probably could have phrased the question more along the lines of "How are other con vendors approaching the summer con season?" rather than "Will these be canceled?" but these answers and perspectives from the field are all truly insightful and helpful so far, thank you.
posted by Young Kullervo at 8:30 AM on May 1, 2020 [4 favorites]

All the concerts cancelled around me have been rescheduled for August, so everyone else seems to think so.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:36 AM on May 1, 2020

Best answer: Sorry, but not in Little Rhodey this August, I expect.

Here in RI our (awesome) governor is talking about easing into things, with her current plan posted online at www.reopeningri.com. It is divided into three phases, each lasting a minimum of 14 days, and possibly starting on May 9. Phases 1&2 require WFH, and phase three still recommends WFH if possible plus six-foot distances and small events.

She has specifically mentioned the possibility of weddings as large as fifty people in June, which would accommodate one half of one percent of your event's projected attendance.

Again, I am sorry, but if I were you I would not plan on this event being permitted to happen -- and even if it did, sharp limits on attendance might make it economically unviable for the organizer.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:36 AM on May 1, 2020 [7 favorites]

(I've only done small art shows thus far, all local or regional)

Events like this (at least ones with a music/performance element) are a fairly regular part of our business, and yeah, the responses & planning for these have been all over the place - some are throwing in the towel now for the rest of the year, some are stalling, some are rescheduling for later.

So there is a chance that some kind of smaller, more easily controlled events could happen in 2020, if that helps you plan for stock orders - you might still have some events you could vend at.
posted by soundguy99 at 8:45 AM on May 1, 2020 [2 favorites]

I've got tickets and hotel reservations for Dragon*Con in early September in Atlanta. (We live in the suburbs, but we get a hotel to stay in and be part of the vibe.)

Let me tell you, the thought of getting into one of the elevators (which normally squeeze in 10+ people during this weekend) scares the living beejeezus out of me.

As much as my geeky family loves D*C, I am hoping it ends up canceled this year.
posted by heathrowga at 8:59 AM on May 1, 2020 [4 favorites]

Best answer: I've seen cancelations so far for a June convention and an August convention. I regularly attend a convention in September that has not canceled yet, but probably will. Even if they don't cancel, I will not be going. I will not go to any convention until after I've received a vaccine, whenever that is.

Here's a Twitter thread that explains why cancelations are taking time to happen.
posted by rakaidan at 9:09 AM on May 1, 2020 [9 favorites]

Even if some events are held, attendance is likely to be severely affected.

Depending on what you sell, if you can sell masks and hand sanitizer anywhere, you will make sales.
posted by theora55 at 9:16 AM on May 1, 2020 [1 favorite]

Your state will have a council or committee dealing with events, you should look up their recommendations or plan or reach out and ask.
posted by fshgrl at 12:23 PM on May 1, 2020

I've seen at least one large annual conference at the very end of October go online-only, just in the past few days. So yeah, I wouldn't count on anything through end of year.
posted by limeonaire at 3:19 PM on May 1, 2020 [2 favorites]

Best answer: I don't think there's pretty much any chance a convention in Pennsylvania will happen in July. Wolf is slowly opening parts of the state next week, but his "yellow" phase still requires a lot of social distancing (take-out only, etc.). If it's southeast Pennsylvania, there is zero chance.
posted by Pax at 4:23 PM on May 1, 2020

Just as a reference point, Facebook has cancelled internal gatherings of more than 50 people through June of 2021 (link). And Amazon has told employees they can work from home until at least October of this year (link).

I would assume that any large events this year will be ultimately be cancelled, and probably into next year as well. In states that have started to detail their phased approaches to reopening, conventions, concerts, and sporting events with audiences are the very last step, and require the development of either a vaccine or therapeutics.

Large events over the summer that haven't cancelled yet may just be waiting on the public health authorities to make the call, to make sure that relevant insurance policies kick in. (If they cancel the event themselves, the policy wouldn't apply.)
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 6:23 PM on May 1, 2020 [4 favorites]

Raikaidan’s twitter link is dead on. Just as an example of how that has worked so far, look at the debacle that was this year’s wrestlemania, or even the Olympics.

With wrestlemania, WWE was talking about going ahead with the show in a stadium in Tampa Bay because they hadn’t been told not to. If they cancelled the show on their own, without being ordered to, they would have been out millions of dollars in cancelled contracts, so they waited until they were told to cancel.

There’s no official news on it, but one of the suspected reasons for Japan waiting so long to postpone the Olympics was that, if they decided it unilaterally, the IOC would have been contractually allowed to penalize Japan heavily, and that it took so long to negotiate to a point where Japan was, essentially, allowed to postpone shows just how hard the IOC was pushing to avoid postponement.
posted by Ghidorah at 5:42 PM on May 2, 2020 [1 favorite]