Where can I legally bet on the next US President?

December 13, 2015 7:49 PM

I want to wager real money on the outcome of the US Presidential elections, but only if there's a legal way to do it. I am in the USA. YANML, etc. Thoughts?
posted by sninctown to Law & Government (12 answers total)

Used to be you'd go to Intrade, but they got closed down shortly after the last election for shenanigans. These days, I am not sure. The magic thing to search for is probably something like "US election market". That turned up these

Iowa Electronic Market

PredictIt

and I'm sure there's more. I don't know anything about these ones in particular - I used InTrade a bit when it existed but I haven't fiddled with it since.
posted by RustyBrooks at 7:53 PM on December 13, 2015 [1 favorite]

In most states wagers between individuals are legal or at least semi-legal. Go on a forum where people are liable to bet on things (poker forums are the best) and state the terms you want, asking interested parties to direct message you. If you are concerned about being paid. ask if a respected 3rd party can escrow (hold both wagers until the event is complete).

Yes this is a pain but it is afaik the only semi-legal way to do so.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:55 PM on December 13, 2015

PredictIt apparently got a letter from the feds saying that their model wouldn't run afoul of trading rules the way InTrade did, so it's probably one of the better options.
posted by Johnny Assay at 7:57 PM on December 13, 2015 [1 favorite]

Planet Money did a whole episode on this.
posted by you're a kitty! at 8:28 PM on December 13, 2015 [3 favorites]

The Iowa Electronic Market has lasted 20 years without the Feds shutting them down, so they've at least got the track record.

In the last cycle, there was good evidence Intrade was being manipulated by wealthy donors. So be careful.
posted by miyabo at 8:32 PM on December 13, 2015

No idea whether you can bet with them as a US Citizen, but PaddyPower has various markets on US Politics, including presidential election.
posted by ryanbryan at 2:19 AM on December 14, 2015

I think I still have an online account at a UK bookmakers when I betted on the Grand National a couple of years ago. Could place you a bet by proxy...?
posted by derbs at 3:44 AM on December 14, 2015

And I'll only ask for 5% of the winnings ;)
posted by derbs at 3:45 AM on December 14, 2015

Long Bets.
posted by dee lee at 3:48 AM on December 14, 2015

I should clarify that your winnings would then become a philanthropic gift. Not sure whether you're in it for the money or the glory.
posted by dee lee at 3:52 AM on December 14, 2015

I use Predict It for my political betting. The site can get overwhelmed sometimes (it was hard to use the morning of Biden's announcement that he wasn't running) but it works well most of the time. In their model, you buy "shares" of "stock" in certain outcomes, so you can make a profit buying low and selling high regardless of the eventual outcome. When I have some extra cash, I pick of shares of "Hillary will be the Democratic nominee" because those are selling for around 86 cents, paying off at $1, and I don't know anything else that will give me a near-guaranteed 13% profit on my investment.

There is a limit: you can't risk more than $850 in any one market. But I'm not nearly that big a spender anyway. Also, read the fine print for how much they take out of your profits for their fees. Overall, though, I recommend it.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 4:27 AM on December 14, 2015 [1 favorite]

Response by poster: PredictIt was what I was looking for. Thanks for the suggestions!
posted by sninctown at 9:14 PM on January 13, 2016