[forex filter] Who knows how many euros one dollar will buy next summer? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller??
November 7, 2007 9:36 AM Subscribe
What do currency speculators think the euro-dollar exchange rate will be in June 2008? Are there online sources that currency speculators use to project or predict exchange futures? Can non-traders see these sources? Am I asking for something that just doesn't exist???
posted by deejay jaydee to work & money (7 answers total) 3 users marked this as a favorite
I've seen at least a couple of folks here on the green express some expertise in foreign exchange and currency trading. And I'm not interested in engaging in such trades, but I do have a professional opportunity to travel to Europe next summer, and in order to put together the most iron-clad proposal for funding from my boss, I kind of need to know what currency traders *think* the dollar-euro exchange rate is likely to be in June 2008. (I work at a well-funded, but appropriately tight-fisted NFP.)
Now, I know that the actual, honest answer is "who in the f@ck knows?! (and now geddoff my lawn!!)" But at the same time, I can't believe that currency speculators simply guess at this stuff . . . they must base their predictions on some sort of data. (Mustn't they? Eek.) Is this data privately held? Does it result from ungodly derivatives and financial models only slightly less complex than your average Rube Goldberg machine? Or is there some sort of secret website run by the Trilateral Commission? (Who, of course, must preordain these sorts of things [responsibly, of course]. Oh, and btw, if there is such a TLC site, can you send me an invite via MeFi Mail? We'll be BFF! I promise!!!)
But to return to the serious side of my question, I found lots of discussion on how to make/lose a ton of money in forex by searching the green (and the internets) . . . but I didn't see anybody talking about sources for the data that trader and speculators base their assumptions or predictions on. Can a simple, honest, international traveler get a bead on where the euro is likely to be in June 2008?
I'm sure this is one of these impossible questions . . . but it can't be most stupidly impossible question asked here today . . . can it?? I mean, I know if there were an ironclad site for this stuff, then everybody in the world would be using it and making jillions of dollars trading currencies. And I also know that YANMFA, and that MMWV, and all of the other acronyms that we use here in lieu of "watch your six." But at the same time, is it really the case that currency speculators base all of their models simply by following financial headlines? There isn't some sort of predictive market for this field? One that I can peek at??
Bonus points for anyone who can explain currency futures to a total financial numbskull (like myself).