Is there an measure of MLB team record that corrects for opponents?
July 27, 2022 1:47 PM Subscribe
The win-loss percentage is the main measure of mlb teams' records. And of course it's what's used for post-season qualification so it matters. BUT it's not actually that useful for comparing team "quality" because teams play teams in their own divisions more than in other divisions. If you're in an easier division you'll have a better win percentage. Is there a statistic that attempts to correct for this?
Best answer: There's a ton of advanced baseball stats that do more than just correct for opponents in the "team" sense, going deeper into opposing pitchers and hitters and weather and stadiums and whatever else, but the most direct version of what you're talking about is probably Relative Power Index.
posted by bowbeacon at 1:53 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by bowbeacon at 1:53 PM on July 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
Best answer: Five Thirty Eight has a project that not only weights actual wins and losses against the relative strength of schedule, but projects the rest of the season based on team strength and remaining strength of schedule.
The Cubs have a <1% chance of winning the World Series by this system. [sobs into fist]
Although I guess this is more in service of predicting eventual actual W-L records than providing a handy number reflecting what has happened so far, normalized by strength of schedule.
That Expected W-L column in the table bowbeacon linked to is probably closer to what you had in mind, even if still not quite there as it is about expected wins based on runs scored.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:02 PM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Cubs have a <1% chance of winning the World Series by this system. [sobs into fist]
Although I guess this is more in service of predicting eventual actual W-L records than providing a handy number reflecting what has happened so far, normalized by strength of schedule.
That Expected W-L column in the table bowbeacon linked to is probably closer to what you had in mind, even if still not quite there as it is about expected wins based on runs scored.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:02 PM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
You might try playing around with this table on Baseball Reference as well.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:07 PM on July 27, 2022
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:07 PM on July 27, 2022
Best answer: Although I guess this is more in service of predicting eventual actual W-L records than providing a handy normalized number of what has happened so far.
538 also reports their Elo ranking (in the Team Rating column) which is exactly this; a normalized number (1500 is an average team) which uses a ranking system originally developed for chess; beating a strong team moves you up more points than beating a weak team.
Because it's intended for projections, it includes two things that may (or may not) be helpful. One is that the rating starts with a combination of last year's results and projections, so the Dodgers and A's didn't start out with the same rating on opening day (where with win/loss they all start 0-0 and the results are purely from this season).
The second is that there's a number of smaller adjustments made for each game, so your team beating the Hypothetical City Bluestockings at home against their weakest pitcher gives a smaller boost to your team's Elo than beating them on the road in storied Hypothetical Park against 'Fastball' Fakename, the best starting pitcher in the league, because in that scenario they are a more difficult team to beat.
posted by Superilla at 2:30 PM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
538 also reports their Elo ranking (in the Team Rating column) which is exactly this; a normalized number (1500 is an average team) which uses a ranking system originally developed for chess; beating a strong team moves you up more points than beating a weak team.
Because it's intended for projections, it includes two things that may (or may not) be helpful. One is that the rating starts with a combination of last year's results and projections, so the Dodgers and A's didn't start out with the same rating on opening day (where with win/loss they all start 0-0 and the results are purely from this season).
The second is that there's a number of smaller adjustments made for each game, so your team beating the Hypothetical City Bluestockings at home against their weakest pitcher gives a smaller boost to your team's Elo than beating them on the road in storied Hypothetical Park against 'Fastball' Fakename, the best starting pitcher in the league, because in that scenario they are a more difficult team to beat.
posted by Superilla at 2:30 PM on July 27, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yeah, that's a good number for comparing. I suspect OP is hoping for W-L records, adjusted for strength of schedule.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:37 PM on July 27, 2022
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:37 PM on July 27, 2022
Fwiw, starting next year, the MLB is going to a "balanced schedule". While not playing each team the same amount of times, every team will play every team next year.
posted by JohnnyGunn at 11:11 PM on July 27, 2022
posted by JohnnyGunn at 11:11 PM on July 27, 2022
This thread is closed to new comments.
posted by sagc at 1:52 PM on July 27, 2022 [3 favorites]