COVID exposure risk timeline
March 15, 2022 9:47 AM
I have a low tolerance for COVID risk and I'm trying to figure out how long to remain cautious about close contact with someone who had a risky encounter.
Someone I know participated in what I view as a moderately covid-risky thing last Saturday -- 8 vaxxed + boosted people, none of them masked, indoors, for about 8 hours. In a situation where all the people involved are unknown, my instinct would be to treat that person as a potential vector for 10-14 days. Given that all 8 people involved are known and (at least in theory) would disclose to the others if they become ill, how long should I wait before I conclude that likely no one at the event had COVID and that person is not risky for me to be in close contact with.
I realize the world has given up but I really don't want to catch this thing.
Someone I know participated in what I view as a moderately covid-risky thing last Saturday -- 8 vaxxed + boosted people, none of them masked, indoors, for about 8 hours. In a situation where all the people involved are unknown, my instinct would be to treat that person as a potential vector for 10-14 days. Given that all 8 people involved are known and (at least in theory) would disclose to the others if they become ill, how long should I wait before I conclude that likely no one at the event had COVID and that person is not risky for me to be in close contact with.
I realize the world has given up but I really don't want to catch this thing.
I don't know if anyone is ever "in the clear" from Covid any more. Unless your friend decides to quarantine themselves for 14 days, they certainly could do something else days later that puts them at risk again even if nobody had it at the event you're concerned about. I see nothing wrong with your setting a boundary of 14 days, just noting that nobody's ever "safe" if they aren't totally locking themselves up from others.
At this point it may be easier to just not see anyone at all or insist that you only see them outdoors than wait 14 days and assume they are "safe," if they aren't quarantining.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:07 AM on March 15, 2022
At this point it may be easier to just not see anyone at all or insist that you only see them outdoors than wait 14 days and assume they are "safe," if they aren't quarantining.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:07 AM on March 15, 2022
my instinct would be to treat that person as a potential vector for 10-14 days.
Are they fully quarantining themselves for that time? Because if not, it...really doesn't matter. They could be getting COVID at the grocery store or on the bus or wherever in those intervening days.
Slightly more effective, I'd think, would be to insist that they take a couple of tests prior to seeing you; but even so, I know a ton of people who tested negative one morning, did a social thing, and then tested positive the next day. Did they catch it at their social thing? Or did they have it brewing already when they tested negative? No way to be sure.
In short: if you want to absolutely minimize your risk, you need to only visit with folks who are also absolutely minimizing their risks, continuously. This person doesn't sound like that.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:12 AM on March 15, 2022
Are they fully quarantining themselves for that time? Because if not, it...really doesn't matter. They could be getting COVID at the grocery store or on the bus or wherever in those intervening days.
Slightly more effective, I'd think, would be to insist that they take a couple of tests prior to seeing you; but even so, I know a ton of people who tested negative one morning, did a social thing, and then tested positive the next day. Did they catch it at their social thing? Or did they have it brewing already when they tested negative? No way to be sure.
In short: if you want to absolutely minimize your risk, you need to only visit with folks who are also absolutely minimizing their risks, continuously. This person doesn't sound like that.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:12 AM on March 15, 2022
I just want to reiterate that you're not wrong. Give it a good 14 days from when the event happened.
posted by bleep at 10:45 AM on March 15, 2022
posted by bleep at 10:45 AM on March 15, 2022
It sort of depends on why you think that knowing them makes a difference - is it specifically because you trust them to tell you if they felt ill? If that's it, then I don't think it actually does make a difference that you know them, because they could be asymptomatic and feel just fine.
We're still being quite cautious in my family, and when someone in our small circle of social interaction does something significantly riskier than the baseline risk level we've all decided to accept in each other's activities, we stay away from them for 14 days. When that's not feasible, that person tests before getting together, rather than relying on just how they feel.
posted by Stacey at 10:48 AM on March 15, 2022
We're still being quite cautious in my family, and when someone in our small circle of social interaction does something significantly riskier than the baseline risk level we've all decided to accept in each other's activities, we stay away from them for 14 days. When that's not feasible, that person tests before getting together, rather than relying on just how they feel.
posted by Stacey at 10:48 AM on March 15, 2022
As others have said, if you want to be 100% sure, then sure, wait 14 days. This was true of other infectious diseases with similar progressions (i.e. symptoms/infectious/diagnosis a few days after exposure) before covid, e.g. measles.
If you are comfortable with less than 100% certainty then the answer to this question depends on the local case rate, so there is not enough information to answer.
posted by caek at 11:08 AM on March 15, 2022
If you are comfortable with less than 100% certainty then the answer to this question depends on the local case rate, so there is not enough information to answer.
posted by caek at 11:08 AM on March 15, 2022
Contact tracing asks for your close unmasked contacts 48 hours before symptoms as likeliest people you would infect. So if everyone is feeling well and/or testing negative 48 hours later, I would say you all are in the clear.
You would avoid them for 10-14 days only if someone in the group tested positive or if you were assuming that someone might test positive without telling you, which it sounds like you aren’t.
posted by tchemgrrl at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2022
You would avoid them for 10-14 days only if someone in the group tested positive or if you were assuming that someone might test positive without telling you, which it sounds like you aren’t.
posted by tchemgrrl at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2022
As a risk-averse person, my way of approaching this might be to ask this person to take a rapid Covid test right before seeing me next.
posted by bluedaisy at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2022
posted by bluedaisy at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2022
what does "close contact" mean in this case? if you're waiting for it to be safe to see them in a well-ventilated space where you're both wearing masks, I don't see any reason to wait (since nobody who's freely socializing with other vaccinated people is making any effort to isolate for two weeks after each time, what good will waiting do?) I would describe myself as not just cautious but paranoid, but I have no fear of situations where all people present are vaccinated, have no symptoms of illness, and are wearing masks (wearing them for real, not the kind of half-assed business that leads people to complain about their glasses fogging up). not because it's absolutely impossible to get infected that way, but it's the outside limit of reasonable precautions you can meaningfully take as an individual if you need to see other people in person.
if you want to be physically close to them with no masks, I guess wait longer, but then you'll be creating the same kind of low but real potential risk for other people, through the vehicle of this person, that they have already created for you. no?
posted by queenofbithynia at 12:28 PM on March 15, 2022
if you want to be physically close to them with no masks, I guess wait longer, but then you'll be creating the same kind of low but real potential risk for other people, through the vehicle of this person, that they have already created for you. no?
posted by queenofbithynia at 12:28 PM on March 15, 2022
From an NPR story a few weeks ago about when someone who's had omicron could safely leave isolation:
After 10 days, you can consider yourself good to go, says Chin-Hong. He says multiple studies have shown that "there's very little, if any, transmission after day 10, regardless of the variant." There's one notable exception to this rule of thumb: If you're immunocompromised, you should wait 20 days to exit isolation, because research prior to omicron has shown that these patients tend to shed virus longer.
posted by mediareport at 12:35 PM on March 15, 2022
After 10 days, you can consider yourself good to go, says Chin-Hong. He says multiple studies have shown that "there's very little, if any, transmission after day 10, regardless of the variant." There's one notable exception to this rule of thumb: If you're immunocompromised, you should wait 20 days to exit isolation, because research prior to omicron has shown that these patients tend to shed virus longer.
posted by mediareport at 12:35 PM on March 15, 2022
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posted by phunniemee at 9:55 AM on March 15, 2022