Data on reinfection after omicron

February 1, 2022 8:12 AM

I realise it's still very early doors, but is there any data yet on reinfection rates for omicron? I tested positive for COVID, presumably omicron, a week and half ago and tested negative five, four, and three days ago. My partner tested positive a couple of days after me and is still testing positive. Do we still need to isolate from each other?

During mine, then our, and then their self-isolation we have stayed apart, windows open, sleeping separately etc and it is just so depressing.

Given we're double jabbed and boosted and I'm now negative after a recent infection, is that still necessary? Isn't my immune system, right now, capable of kicking anything omicrony that comes my way?

The only info I can find online relates to re-infection from omicron if you've previously had another variant, not an omicron double-header.

posted by Faff to Health & Fitness (8 answers total)

Best answer: Assuming your immune system is healthy, re-infection by the same variant is probably very rare in the short term, but omicron hasn't been around long enough for us to be sure:

"So typically, we have seen that for about three months or so after somebody has been infected with a particular strain of COVID, they are very unlikely to be infected again with that strain," [Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison] Arwady said during a Facebook Live Tuesday. "I think we're still learning a little bit about that with omicron. ... I would say, you know, unofficially while we're waiting for the data to come in, I would expect that somebody who has just had, if you knew that it was omicron, you would probably be unlikely to get omicron again for the next few months based on what we've seen previously, but I'm less confident in that statement than I would have been for prior variants, given what we've seen."

posted by jedicus at 8:35 AM on February 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

A different quote from the same article:

In mid-December, a study conducted in the United Kingdom found the risk of COVID reinfection with the omicron variant was more than five times higher than delta, Reuters reported.

The study by Imperial College in London didn't find any evidence that omicron's severity was any different than delta's. However, some researchers contended it was important not to overinterpret the findings, saying sufficient data wasn't yet available.

I'd give it another couple days.
posted by kschang at 8:52 AM on February 1, 2022

Canadians, on the other hand, seems to think that you should be okay for maybe 3 months...

"If you've had Omicron, you're probably good for a minimum of three months before you'd really have to worry about catching it again, unless the next variant is super, super different than something we've seen before," said Bruce Mazer, a professor of pediatrics at McGill University and associate scientific director of the COVID Immunity Task Force.

posted by kschang at 8:55 AM on February 1, 2022

In mid-December, a study conducted in the United Kingdom found the risk of COVID reinfection with the omicron variant was more than five times higher than delta, Reuters reported.

The article is pretty poorly written. It's not clear from this quote if they mean omicron-omicron reinfection or *some other variant*-omicron reinfection. I suspect they mean the latter. I would say that the OP getting re-infected with omicron having recovered fully (and being otherwise healthy) and being fully vaccinated and boosted is incredibly small. They are far more likely to catch a cold or the flu from someone at the grocery store.
posted by sevenless at 9:04 AM on February 1, 2022 [10 favorites]

A different quote from the same article:

In mid-December, a study conducted in the United Kingdom found the risk of COVID reinfection with the omicron variant was more than five times higher than delta, Reuters reported.

That study used data from the UKHSA and NHS for all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in England who had taken a COVID test between November 29th and December 11th 2021. Omicron was only first detected in the UK around November 27th. Therefore that study was necessarily limited to reinfections after a past infection with something other than omicron, not people who got omicron twice.
posted by jedicus at 9:04 AM on February 1, 2022 [2 favorites]

Best answer: Even if you could find a good omicron reinfection rate, which you probably can't yet, it's not going to tell you about your situation, which is: you had an active omicron infection less than two weeks ago and are exposed to your partner's active omicron infection now. Personally, I wouldn't hesitate to commingle in that situation as a non immunocompromised person with no other risk factors, because your levels of circulating antibodies are about as high as they're gonna be for a bit. The expectation should be that they'll taper off in the next 1-3 months, as implied in that article kschang linked.
posted by deludingmyself at 9:17 AM on February 1, 2022 [22 favorites]

Best answer: Yeah, given your infections were almost simultaneous, I'd assume you're not at risk for reinfection, based on how previous variants have operated. Plus, the fact that most countries have experience sharp rises and falls in omicron case numbers suggests that a certain degree of herd immunity is at play - so much so the CDC is considering defining full vaccinated as 2 shots + booster or 2 shots + COVID infection. That may be a mistake (it's controversial), but it does imply you should be okay less than 2 weeks out.
posted by coffeecat at 10:04 AM on February 1, 2022 [1 favorite]

Best answer: I don't think you need Omicron specific data for this at all. I think you are extremely unlikely to get infected when you just recovered and you don't need to isolate. I am being very, very cautious right now and I still wouldn't think twice about this.

You were both infected by the same variant, you aren't going to get reinfected with the same thing a week after you were infected. I suppose it is theoretically possible that one of you had BA.2 and one had BA.1 (and we don't know yet how good cross-immunity is between them), but that seems highly unlikely given the timing, so you're only taking a tiny risk. At the same time, your partner has now been testing positive for more than a week and it is likely they are shedding only lower amounts of virus now.

Realistically, no one has the data you are looking for. The best hope for this would be from the UK as they have some of the best surveillance in the world, but they don't even define someone who tests positive again within 30 days as a reinfection, which perhaps indicates how very rare this would be.
posted by ssg at 8:10 PM on February 1, 2022 [3 favorites]